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The Club!

  • #20,641
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:00am Jan 14, 2016 11:00am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ng-supported-t

Here comes your future president US. Either guy that hates muslims, or a girl that hates black people. 2016 campaign moto: Into future with racism ahead!
  • #20,642
  • Jan 15, 2016 12:20pm Jan 15, 2016 12:20pm
Got another one going on UZAR +180 atm.
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Managed to closed over 100 pips on MXN and TRY together. Sadly pending buy on UCAD didnt got triggered again as its up 160 pips from there. But still no change, selling CAD and EMs. On USD in general its possible to see drop in next days, USD index structure would point to that, so would not be surprised to see EU up 100-200 pips from here.
  • #20,643
  • Jan 15, 2016 2:49pm Jan 15, 2016 2:49pm
Markus did you perhaps seen movie Everest? Seen it yesterday and just wondering from climbers perspective what exactly went wrong there, becouse there were so many low key events i couldnt tie the picture together. Was the fact that everyone just under-estimated storm comming, or was simply that some underpreapared guys went up there that they shouldnt? I would guess that this happens regularly so probably not the key. Or just the random chance that there was massive storm and no supply of oxigen when they needed, which was to fault people downstairs. Not sure what tied it all together so that so much went wrong. So damn confusing. Quite sad movie though.
  • #20,644
  • Jan 15, 2016 2:53pm Jan 15, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Those guys really just want to kill and be killed. fortunately but rather unsual they only use low-explosive. At one location, after initial attack they didn't runaway, waiting people & police to gather and then start shooting... see this: http://metro.tempo.co/read/news/2016...is-bom-sarinah

OMG,

what a mess. Have to carry my weapons 24/7 ???
  • #20,645
  • Jan 15, 2016 4:15pm Jan 15, 2016 4:15pm
Quoting janpec1000
Markus did you perhaps seen movie Everest? Seen it yesterday and just wondering from climbers perspective what exactly went wrong there, becouse there were so many low key events i couldnt tie the picture together. Was the fact that everyone just under-estimated storm comming, or was simply that some underpreapared guys went up there that they shouldnt? I would guess that this happens regularly so probably not the key. Or just the random chance that there was massive storm and no supply of oxigen when they needed, which was to fault people downstairs....
Hi Jan,

that is a tough question. Have not seen the film yet, but know fairly well the circumstances.

When I remember correctly, the New Zealand and the USA groups (both commercial) climbed together. They forget to set an exact time for returning. They talked about 13:00 and 14:00, but did not fix it. Big fault.

Also this groups gave order, that the climbers had to stay together. This caused the problem that fast climbers had to constantly wait for slow climbers. The groups were fairly huge, around 30 climbers or so. Also they ran into the Taiwan group. On difficult places the climbers queued.

They lost much time with waiting. 90 minutes or so.

Than on a particularly difficult place Sherpas should have mounted some fix-ropes. But there were none. So the groups lost again one hour or so.

When approaching Hillary Step, again the fix-ropes were not there. So it took another hour to fix this, too. Remember, at Hillary step it is only possible to climb one after the other. So the last climbers in the row had to wait fairly long in the cold to master the crux.

After that the weather changed dramatically and caught the groups a bit off guard. It got very very cold (up to -75°C I read somewhere), snowfall, very bad sight. Jon Krakauer told something about 7 meters sight.

Before the weather changed, some climbers were very late on the top of Mount Everest. Around 16:00 the last. Save return point would have been 13:00 or latest 14:00.

When weather went really bad, the participants came in deep trouble. Some of them were already deeply exhausted (problem with commercial groups, that some of the participants have the money but eventually not the strength).

Interesting is also the fact, that one of the guides, Anatoli Bukrejew, returned to camp 4 very early without waiting for his customers. He did not use oxygen. I truly think: he gave his oxygen to another climber in trouble. At that point it was clear, that he had to hurry to come off the mountain. Hence the speed.


We have some key factors here which led to the trouble:

A) commercial groups - the customers pay big amounts to get on the mountain

B) slow and fast climbers literally tight together (waiting time)

C) missing fix-ropes lead to huge loss of time

D) no fix time for return communicated

E) huge change in weather

F) eventually: in this extreme hight, it is discussed, that the guides/leaders of commercial groups should use oxygen in order to a) be able to draw the right decisions, and b) to be able to help

G) too many climbers at the same route

H) at least the customer climbers seems to have had oxygen. But it surly was not enough, because due to the delays and the bad weather they spent much time in the death zone


Regarding the weather:

normally one thinks, that the weather forecasts should have warned about this huge change in weather. But there are limitations sometimes, making any forecast moot.

Even climbing in the Alps will catch you with pants down every here and then. I can remember situations, where temperature suddenly dropped 10 to 20 degrees C, fog and snowfall setting in and causing a white out. It lasted nearly 24 hours and I was unable to move (because I was on a glacier with many crevasse. All I was able to do was to dig me in and wait. Another time ice rain caught me off guard. All the walls/stones were covered with a thin film of ice. No chance to climb any further. And weather in 8000 meters is just another story.
  • #20,646
  • Jan 15, 2016 4:18pm Jan 15, 2016 4:18pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...kets-season-ii

Cant believe that even majority of ZH staff/posters dont get whats going on. If they dont get it, what percentage of regular people does? 0.01? or less? Austrian economy is just base to understand better economics, but you cant use that solo to expect what hardcore Keynesians are doing. I mean jezz, it makes it really freaking shitty. Peter Shiff was wrong, FED did hike as he was saying it wont happen, and looks like whole ZH staff is looking into his advice. So it will take 1 years to acknowlade some miss-shots looks like. By end of 2016 Shiff is going to look for great reasons to pull himself "not-wrong" while ZH will post the facts, but still historical posts will put some dark picture on credibility, either them, or myself.
  • #20,647
  • Jan 15, 2016 4:25pm Jan 15, 2016 4:25pm
What If There Is No "Fed Put" - Paul Brodsky Thinks Yellen Will Not Bailout Markets This Time
  • #20,648
  • Jan 15, 2016 4:31pm Jan 15, 2016 4:31pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Jan, that is a tough question. Have not seen the film yet, but know fairly well the circumstances. When I remember correctly, the New Zealand and the USA groups (both commercial) climbed together. They forget to set an exact time for returning. They talked about 13:00 and 14:00, but did not fix it. Big fault. Also this groups gave order, that the climbers had to stay together. This caused the problem that fast climbers had to constantly wait for slow climbers. The groups were fairly huge, around 30 climbers or so. Also they ran into the...
Holly shit, thanks for input thats what it makes picture much more clear. -75 degrees, well that does make whole thing go down the spiral. If that info is credible it makes anything happen afterwards pretty much 10 times worse i can imagine. The last fact you point out damn i was thinking the same exact thing, I dont believe he was just doing that to save his ass, must have been some add on. Additional to that all decisions by main guide were so wrong, i mean what makes man so miss-judge the decissions, from what i saw was probably...friends?

Damn, what did dig you out? Was rescue team, or standard precudure team to be in near bases? Was it terrifiing to live the night like that? I cant even imagine, i was cringing my ass just looking at movie. I respect such events, becouse i want to do it somethime to test the being to maximum point, but almost everything in it just says no, the height fear, storms, chance of being stuck.
  • #20,649
  • Jan 16, 2016 3:04pm Jan 16, 2016 3:04pm
Two pictures you can understand yourself
Source - http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/
Best
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #20,650
  • Jan 16, 2016 5:33pm Jan 16, 2016 5:33pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Holly shit, thanks for input thats what it makes picture much more clear. -75 degrees, well that does make whole thing go down the spiral. If that info is credible it makes anything happen afterwards pretty much 10 times worse i can imagine. The last fact you point out damn i was thinking the same exact thing, I dont believe he was just doing that to save his ass, must have been some add on. Additional to that all decisions by main guide were so wrong, i mean what makes man so miss-judge the decissions, from what i saw was probably...friends?...

Regarding the -75°C: I have read today, that the wind-chill was included. But nevertheless: damn, damn cold

Anatoli Bukrejew was a very good man, that is for sure. Although he did not use the Oxygene, he was able to help/rescue several other mountaineers in that night and the day after. He was also able to climb up to Scott Fisher, who was left by another rescue team. When he arrived at Scott, Scott was already dead. Bukrejew was certainly the strongest of all the mountaineers of those groups. Most of the other were completely exhausted, whereas he was able to do several rescue missions and then ascend to Scott. But especially Jon Krakauer convicted him for not using Oxygen. Later in 1997 both made peace. Shortly thereafter Bukrejew died at the Annapurna.

I do not know why so many bad decisions were made. I think the commercial groups, better their leaders, had high pressure to get as much mountaineers to the top as possible.

Out of my sight it would have been the best, to let only the fastest/strongest mountaineers go for the top, after the disasters with the missing fix-ropes. At that point it was more than clear that the slower ones, or the ones at the end of the queue would not make it in a timely way.

Interesting is also the fact, that one mountaineer in one of the groups was a very experienced pilot. He was able to read the weather erfectly due to his work as pilot. He was very well aware what happened regarding the weather. He had conversation with Jon Krakauer about the upcoming thunderstorm. Krakauer met him when he was descending from the top. The pilot was ascending. Question is: why did the pilot ascend further, fully knowing what weather was coming?

Interestingly enough, later the Pilot and Bukrejew descended together, after being at the top. On the way down they once again met Krakauer at the Hillary Step, because he had to wait because of ascending mountaineers. Out of my view all three, the Pilot, Krakauer and Bukrejew should have prohibited, that the ascending mountaineers would run into their fate. Was there no communication about the weather at all??? Krakauer had seen the storm front, the Pilot and Burkejew, too. I have never read any meaningful about this part. Krakauer later told, that he was only able to see the strength of the storm, when he arrived at the South-Peak around 15:30. So question for me is: did he not believe what the pilot told him?

Very interesting story........


Regarding my dig in:

Luckily enough, my comrades and me (we were three) had provisions and fuel for the burners for three days. So water supply was secured as well as nutrition. But is was fairly cold. We had only material for an emergency bivouac. Next day, when the sight got better, we were able to descend. It was a bit tricky on the glacier with all the new snow, but somehow we managed to get off the glacier without falling into a crevasse. The most disturbing thing was simply, that the weather changed so quickly, that we were not able to react to it.

When one has climbed several bigger mountains, one is experienced with being in the cold for longer time. The problem for me is, when being in such a situation where one can not move, to fight against the boredom.
  • #20,651
  • Jan 17, 2016 1:55am Jan 17, 2016 1:55am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Regarding the -75C: I have read today, that the wind-chill was included. But nevertheless: damn, damn cold Anatoli Bukrejew was a very good man, that is for sure. Although he did not use the Oxygene, he was able to help/rescue several other mountaineers in that night and the day after. He was also able to climb up to Scott Fisher, who was left by another rescue team. When he arrived at Scott, Scott was already dead. Bukrejew was certainly the strongest of all the mountaineers of those groups. Most of the other were completely exhausted,...
Yes you raise good point, perhaps so many bad decisions were made, becouse as pointed out those two teams had not had anyone sucessfuly going to top for while, so they were under pressure to do so, bussines side i guess.
Btw just wondering, do you wear radio communication with you on climbing? Or was simply weather that bad that you knew any call was to be for nothing?
  • #20,652
  • Jan 17, 2016 1:56am Jan 17, 2016 1:56am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Two pictures you can understand yourself Source - http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/ Best D.P. {image} {image}
We are in little bubble i guess
  • #20,653
  • Jan 17, 2016 3:14am Jan 17, 2016 3:14am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} We are in little bubble i guess
Have you prepeared yourself for splashes?


D.P.

P.S. As you can see we have a tremendous one since 2000.
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,654
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:07am Jan 17, 2016 4:07am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Have you prepeared yourself for splashes? D.P. P.S. As you can see we have a tremendous one since 2000.
Yep i am hedged for crisis, have BTC longs/EM shorts. Shorting US stock is possibility but i wont go with it as long as FED is behind.
  • #20,655
  • Jan 17, 2016 5:00am Jan 17, 2016 5:00am
Iran sanctions lifted now watch Brent hit 25 or lower. Probably gap down on open, could be large.
  • #20,656
  • Jan 17, 2016 11:45am Jan 17, 2016 11:45am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes you raise good point, perhaps so many bad decisions were made, becouse as pointed out those two teams had not had anyone sucessfuly going to top for while, so they were under pressure to do so, bussines side i guess. Btw just wondering, do you wear radio communication with you on climbing? Or was simply weather that bad that you knew any call was to be for nothing?

Normally the expeditions have radio communication - for the communication to the base camp, for communication with medical staff, or even for communication within the climbers group. Imagine: you are the lead climber in a big wall and decide to climb 100+ meters in one go. Imagine that your route is not straight above the belayer and you are losing sight. Add to this that a somewhat stronger wind is blowing. So now the two may not be able to hear each others command or answer. Radio communication would now be very fine.

In light of this all the missing communication about the bad weather is very curious.

Have to dig this out, I think :-)

Reinhold Messner on the Jon Krakauer/Anitoli Boukreev Everest Contoversy

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  • #20,657
  • Jan 17, 2016 11:57am Jan 17, 2016 11:57am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Normally the expeditions have radio communication - for the communication to the base camp, for communication with medical staff, or even for communication within the climbers group. Imagine: you are the lead climber in a big wall and decide to climb 100+ meters in one go. Imagine that your route is not straight above the belayer and you are losing sight. Add to this that a somewhat stronger wind is blowing. So now the two may not be able to hear each others command or answer. Radio communication would now be very fine. In light of this...

even when we take into regard that is was 1996, 20 years ago, I think it would be ridiculous to think that they had no radio communication
  • #20,658
  • Jan 17, 2016 12:06pm Jan 17, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Normally the expeditions have radio communication - for the communication to the base camp, for communication with medical staff, or even for communication within the climbers group. Imagine: you are the lead climber in a big wall and decide to climb 100+ meters in one go. Imagine that your route is not straight above the belayer and you are losing sight. Add to this that a somewhat stronger wind is blowing. So now the two may not be able to hear each others command or answer. Radio communication would now be very fine. In light of this...

notice that Messner said, that the two groups, New Zealand and US group, were in kind of competition
  • #20,659
  • Jan 17, 2016 12:23pm Jan 17, 2016 12:23pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} even when we take into regard that is was 1996, 20 years ago, I think it would be ridiculous to think that they had no radio communication
Inside the 1996 Everest Disaster - Ken Kamler

7:54 proof there was radio communication

8:12 again proof of radio communication

9:22 again radio communication with the camp 3 and the climbers in trouble

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  • #20,660
  • Jan 17, 2016 1:26pm Jan 17, 2016 1:26pm
Storm over Everest 1996

32:35 ....it was such a beautiful day. there was not a cloud out there

33:09 radio communication from the top of Everest

33:45 communication from Everest top to base camp: "cold and windy, cold and windy"

34:55 some disturbing words about the condition of Scott Fisher, who was the leader of the US group

it seems, that quite a lot of climbers were not in the best shape anymore BEFORE the bad weather arrived, and before they reached the top eventually. Nota bene: I think that all of Scott Fishers group survived, mainly because of Bukrejew's help. Only Scott died exhausted. He was one of the last to reach the top that day.

Again no notice about the fact, that the Pilot Martin Adams, Bukrejew and Krakauer were aware of the upcoming storm front when they descended from the top. They were one of the first on the top that day


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