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Basic - trading extreme positioning

  • #101
  • Edited 10:01pm Jul 2, 2014 9:02pm | Edited 10:01pm
Very likely GBP/USD is going to come down a few 100 pips from here. Positions are at an extreme not seen for a long time. The (at least) short term top is either in or not far away.

And when EUR/CHF gets to 99-100% longs with like 90+ lots… that is a definite signal we have seen a bottom here or are super close and can run up a few 100 pips.
Attached Images
  • #102
  • Jul 2, 2014 9:32pm Jul 2, 2014 9:32pm
Quoting Ck87
Very likely GBP/USD is going to come down a few 100 pips from here. Positions are at an extreme not seen for a long time. The (at least) short term top is either in or not far away. And when EUR/CHF gets to 98-100% longs… that is a definite signal we have seen a bottom here and can run up a few 100 pips. {image} {image}

The truth is though it's very hard to tell….. on AUG 20 2013 96 % of lots here were short 344 lots of GBP/USD and price broke out 500 pips higher!!

Tough game.
  • #103
  • Edited Jul 3, 2014 12:00am Jul 2, 2014 11:46pm | Edited Jul 3, 2014 12:00am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} The truth is though it's very hard to tell….. on AUG 20 2013 96 % of lots here were short 344 lots of GBP/USD and price broke out 500 pips higher!! Tough game.
There is no truth about the market besides the fact that it is not (fully) predictable. We will lose many trades with every system but our task is to win more than we lose.
And, of course, every system needs proper money management and trade management. For example, if I took short USDJPY or long GBPUSD with my ordinary system on June 30, I would set them to breakeven same evening. USDJPY would be stopped out at night and GBPUSD would stay running and I would trail it somehow.
But so far we have not started to discuss anything else than if such data can be used for trading decisions at all. There is long way to go before we can say if we have a system or not. Some months at least.
  • #104
  • Jul 3, 2014 1:32am Jul 3, 2014 1:32am
Are brokers also interested in our discussion? This is the data we get from Alpari for second day already
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-07-03_092959.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #105
  • Jul 3, 2014 4:20am Jul 3, 2014 4:20am
don't get caught out on non farm payroll today guys
  • #106
  • Jul 3, 2014 4:22am Jul 3, 2014 4:22am
Quoting Indrek
Are brokers also interested in our discussion? This is the data we get from Alpari for second day already {image}
surly they're not that sneaky , are they
  • #107
  • Jul 3, 2014 7:58am Jul 3, 2014 7:58am
here is my result

GBP/JPY +75
GBP/USD +30
NZD/USD -30
EUR/CHF -22

LET SEE WATH HAPPEN THIS DAY
  • #108
  • Jul 3, 2014 8:14am Jul 3, 2014 8:14am
Guys..... You might find this of interest......

http://www.mt4i.com/appstore/app.aspx?id=1
  • #109
  • Jul 5, 2014 10:31am Jul 5, 2014 10:31am
Quoting Indrek
We were speaking about possible selling of USDCHF that is over 70% long on at least two different brokers and near 70% on third. After last adjustment (based on new low) the pending order would be set at 0.8878 and triggered today. Let us see where it goes. If price will go against us then next pending sell limit is 0.8900 and third one 0.8944. Edit: One obstacle for trading USDCHF could be the fact that EURUSD is still very neutral.

wrong decision USD/CHF or we have to wait more days!?
  • #110
  • Jul 5, 2014 11:03am Jul 5, 2014 11:03am
Quoting mara1
{quote} wrong decision USD/CHF or we have to wait more days!?
Yes, it went sharply against us. And USDCHF is not at extremes any more. By now we would have three trades, last one around breakeven, two in loss.
  • #111
  • Jul 7, 2014 4:23pm Jul 7, 2014 4:23pm
Am I the only person interested in this forum or has everyone decided it doesn't work and moved on? Where are you 5abi?
  • #112
  • Jul 7, 2014 10:44pm Jul 7, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting buster48
Am I the only person interested in this forum or has everyone decided it doesn't work and moved on? Where are you 5abi?
A thread can function only if the thread starter himself is interested in it and is actively present posting real trades and advice. Otherwise, it is no sense for anybody to post here because analysis and monitoring can be very well done alone.
  • #113
  • Jul 8, 2014 3:31pm Jul 8, 2014 3:31pm
I see this guy has started a few threads that came to bugger all, what's the point starting one if he's got no interest ? beats the hell out of me indrek
  • #114
  • Jan 16, 2016 10:36am Jan 16, 2016 10:36am
I have not been very active on forex factory except following news past few months. But I have not changed my methodology much. I now use Oanda's market positioning tool to gauge sentiment as it tends to be more reliable with larger number of traders.

Of the recent developments, here are my thoughts:

 

  1. I think Euro USD is headed higher. I will be buying on dips. If it drops to 1.085-1.08, I think good buy areas.
  2. USDJPY is extremely weak but also very oversold. I think it will try to make a run for 119 area where I will short it.
  3. I also like to buy EURGBP but its overheated at the moment.

Attached screenshot from Oanda's positioning tool. You can see market is heavily short EurUSD and all those long orders are sitting there to close the shorts that are already in water. You can access the link from here:


http://www.oanda.sg/analysis/forex-order-book#EUR/USD


Quoting Indrek
{quote} A thread can function only if the thread starter himself is interested in it and is actively present posting real trades and advice. Otherwise, it is no sense for anybody to post here because analysis and monitoring can be very well done alone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-01-16 at 10.30.32 AM.png Size: 117 KB
Its all in the mind.
  • #115
  • Jan 16, 2016 10:38am Jan 16, 2016 10:38am
I was not too active on FF but if you are still interested, we can share trade ideas here.

Quoting buster48
Am I the only person interested in this forum or has everyone decided it doesn't work and moved on? Where are you 5abi?
Its all in the mind.
  • #116
  • Jan 16, 2016 11:55am Jan 16, 2016 11:55am
Hi,

Please post, looking forward to it.

Thanks
  • #117
  • Jan 16, 2016 12:00pm Jan 16, 2016 12:00pm
Hi,

Please explain about your bias on Eur/Aud. What to see and learn how you interepret this one at the moment.

Thanks.
  • #118
  • Jan 16, 2016 12:34pm Jan 16, 2016 12:34pm
EURAUD is going to run into resistance at 1.6250.

Quoting sspremj
Hi, Please explain about your bias on Eur/Aud. What to see and learn how you interepret this one at the moment. Thanks.
Its all in the mind.
  • #119
  • Jan 18, 2016 9:57am Jan 18, 2016 9:57am
I bought EURCAD at 1.5775 and placed another buy order at 1.56. Stop if trades below 1.55.
Its all in the mind.
  • #120
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:38pm Jan 18, 2016 2:38pm
5abi,

I like your concept on trading on readily available market info. The thread seems to have
faded away & I suspect it is because the are NO indicators involved, so traders loose interest
fast. From what I have seen using the info you are using will work, but as we all know nothing is ever
going to work 100% of the time & what will work for one will NOT work for another. Anyway I am
keeping up with what you have described here & will see how it works out over the next month.

I wish you the best.
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