Prediction is impossible when anything is possible | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

It's impossible to lose money in Forex!!! 91 replies

long-run profits impossible with short-term trading? 39 replies

Real Scalping, Impossible? 15 replies

Seriously, how I can GBP/USD go, is anything possible? 1 reply

Attachments: Prediction is impossible when anything is possible
Exit Attachments

Prediction is impossible when anything is possible

  • #21
  • Dec 7, 2015 8:52pm Dec 7, 2015 8:52pm
A fascinating subject but why would you want to deal with absolutes (Impossible, Possible) when the markets can only be understood in terms of probabilities?

Also, the billiard balls example suggests the cue ball goes every which way but in reality here with markets the price is truly linear- up or down. I understand that all traders affect the outcome but probably 90% have a negligible effect and can be discounted. The banks are running the show here.

Instead of trying to understand the markets why not reverse engineer a path to your goal (and mine) early retirement.

For example, Goal: Seven figure account. Starting capital $1000. Double account every month equals ten months time. With my broker that translates to 16 pips per day consistently and you're there. Why have I not heard of anyone who has done this? 16 pips is there every day for the taking.

Anyhoo as usual I'm on the wrong bus. Have fun.
Enter Signature
  • #22
  • Edited 1:45am Dec 8, 2015 1:29am | Edited 1:45am
See the market as a basketball match, let's say the biggest player is Jordan, the one that rules the game... let's say you studied all of his moves and you know
his tactics very well, now will it be possible to predict with a certain degree of probability his next move ? YES.
When and if a new big player comes, do the same thing and rearrange your strategy. There you have a chance to predict the future over a relatively short term.
  • #23
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:25pm Jan 14, 2016 11:25pm
This is very relevant to anybody trying to predict the markets.

Inserted Video
  • #24
  • Jan 14, 2016 11:50pm Jan 14, 2016 11:50pm
Nah.

Inserted Video
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #25
  • Jan 15, 2016 1:27am Jan 15, 2016 1:27am
Quoting SaiLyfee
Plain and simple really, when anything is possible prediction becomes impossible. This is a great video which can be applied to the markets. So before I get people attacking me here based on this statement, I would seriously recommend you to approach this with an open mind and begin watching from 3.40 in this video until at least 9.00 to see the effects of how a chaotic system behaves, and the effects this has on it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0gD...3PshdSx6awKmxa I hope to be able to see some...
During NFP I know that price will go at certain time up or down. Its enough for me to make money.
Knowing direction is not necessary, impact and momentum is what we need.
  • #26
  • Jan 15, 2016 1:35am Jan 15, 2016 1:35am
I have been attacked many times for saying that it is impossible to predict the price, but for me it is something more than obvious.

I don´t really understand how people can think they can analyze the market since there are tons of information that us ¨the average Joe¨ never even smell...so analizing what? The 10% of information? It doesn´t make sense to me.

But, this is a free world and every person can spent the money the way he/she wants.
  • #27
  • Jan 15, 2016 2:01am Jan 15, 2016 2:01am
Quoting SaiLyfee
Plain and simple really, when anything is possible prediction becomes impossible. This is a great video which can be applied to the markets. So before I get people attacking me here based on this statement, I would seriously recommend you to approach this with an open mind and begin watching from 3.40 in this video until at least 9.00 to see the effects of how a chaotic system behaves, and the effects this has on it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0gD...3PshdSx6awKmxa I hope to be able to see some...
Saily Fee gets points for even knowing about LTCM.

Now, the question is.....to those who can predict price.....how do you know that you have not been Fooled By Randomness?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #28
  • Edited 2:26am Jan 15, 2016 2:08am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting forexintradi
I dont really understand how people can think they can analyze the market since there are tons of information that us the average Joe never even smell...so analizing what? The 10% of information?
One of the tenets of Technical Analysis is that history repeats itself. If you watch the charts, live and historical, long enough (a few thousand hours), no matter what combination of indicators (or lack of them) you are using, you are bound to see patterns which occur repeatedly, sometimes with surprising frequency. Given a knowledge of a large number of such patterns, you can see that at any given moment, there are only a limited number of possibilities of price movement and its extent.

In my humble opinion, markets are predictable enough for an experienced trader to be profitable consistently.
This is supported by the fact that there are traders who consistently make profits from the markets, though probably most of them have lost interest in forums such as this and so you don't see many of them here -- but some of them might be lurking around and reading such threads with a smile.

And you don't need tons of information either. But you need to work out your own strategy and know it very very well.

And you need to conquer yourself before you can conquer the market.
  • #29
  • Jan 17, 2016 1:03pm Jan 17, 2016 1:03pm
Quoting GnWFx
{quote}One of the tenets of Technical Analysis is that history repeats itself. If you watch the charts, live and historical, long enough (a few thousand hours), no matter what combination of indicators (or lack of them) you are using, you are bound to see patterns which occur repeatedly, sometimes with surprising frequency. Given a knowledge of a large number of such patterns, you can see that at any given moment, there are only a limited number of possibilities of price movement and its extent. .
Technical Analysis as you explained it is different than technical analysis I do. I just do technical analysis of actual price, I dont use history because in my opinion it is worthless. It is truth that patterns repeat all the time, but the problem is how market respond to these patterns. There are too many possible answers for them...so base on that it is not possible to know what the price will do every single time. Thats one of main reasons most people lose (in combination with psycological issues), history patterns, too much indicators, and all signals are very, very confuse to the average trader, so read and decipher them correctly is close to impossible.

Quoting GnWFx
{quote}In my humble opinion, markets are predictable enough for an experienced trader to be profitable consistently.
This is supported by the fact that there are traders who consistently make profits from the markets, though probably most of them have lost interest in forums such as this and so you don't see many of them here -- but some of them might be lurking around and reading such threads with a smile.
I think you dont operate the market using the history and its patterns, I guess because your experience you use a combination of behaviors, triggers, intuitions, supports, resistences, etc...that are learned after many hours trading (not styding the past, but lerarning everyday).
Quoting GnWFx
{quote}And you don't need tons of information either. But you need to work out your own strategy and know it very very well.
Exactly, I think at the end, both agree...but we explain it of different way. In your first paragraph you are talking about thousand of hours styding history and patterns, but now you are saying you dont need tons of information either, and that is truth, and this part is what many traders are confused about because courses sellers and brokers free courses too want to make it this way. It is supossed to take tons of hours of studying and thousands of hours of practicing to become a winer trader...but the truth is different, you only need to know the basic concepts about how a graphic works, and then practice every day until you start understanding the price movements, and it will take maybe several months before you start doing something with sense...but I dont think you need several years to achieve it as I have heard many, many times.

Quoting GnWFx
{quote}And you need to conquer yourself before you can conquer the market.
I agree 100% with this phrase, trading is a very good way to know who you are, and your feelings make you a good or bad trader often times. I think regardless who good or bad your strategy is, what make the different is your personality, how your feelings influence your trading.
  • #30
  • Last Post: Jan 17, 2016 1:59pm Jan 17, 2016 1:59pm
"Prediction is impossible when anything is possible"
in terms of trading "anything" = up/down
0 traders viewing now