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  • #381
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:40am Jan 14, 2016 7:40am
Quoting classix
Requested for 3 Bar Pattern at post 368 but....Ur the master as you like.. To Me 3 Possible ways to mark the zone but not sure what should be exact rule. so some Questions also helpful for others may be. 1. When marking the Zone it only needs to be high volume no matter how Narrow or Wide spread is. if two bars at same place with high volume appear should cover both or single? and when bars B and A printed with high volume but not equal to bar C we should quickly pick them even they are inside our first Zone? 2. On Two charts 2BR at 11th JAN 17:00...
I was hoping more would participate on the 3 bar pattern question but I guess not... will post something on it later.

When setting up your charts for the next day I ONLY place a fib on the highest volume 1hr bar. I do not care what the spread of that bar is. I don't like to fib two bars (I did play with that before) and now ONLY fib the one bar that has the highest volume that day.

No if bar B and A are lower volume than C I mark C, I would not care about A or B.

What 2BR didn't work? Please show me specially? When you fib only the highest volume bar there is no 2BR trade so it wouldn't have failed.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #382
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:44am Jan 14, 2016 7:44am
Good morning Pres. I am silently catching up on your journal. I do have some questions, but am hoping they will be answered as I read. Thanks for sharing.
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #383
  • Edited 10:13am Jan 14, 2016 8:04am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I was hoping more would participate on the 3 bar pattern question but I guess not...
I'm all about this...those bars look like they are smart money pausing their buying activity and then testing the market for true selling (SM selling not retail). On the test (hidden test I believe), SM sees little selling and then they push for mark-up! You could say that SM is using the retail traders entering short off the support resistance flip zone to fuel their longs.
  • #384
  • Jan 14, 2016 8:10am Jan 14, 2016 8:10am
Quoting capstone
Good morning Pres. I am silently catching up on your journal. I do have some questions, but am hoping they will be answered as I read. Thanks for sharing.
Welcome.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #385
  • Jan 14, 2016 8:19am Jan 14, 2016 8:19am
Look at this. I do not know anything about your 2BR or 3 Bar stuff yet. I do not know what SM or ND mean....but I can see plainly how the market has come to a dead stop at the top of yesterday's High volume H1 bar. Interesting.
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Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #386
  • Jan 14, 2016 8:29am Jan 14, 2016 8:29am
Quoting capstone
Look at this. I do not know anything about your 2BR or 3 Bar stuff yet. I do not know what SM or ND mean....but I can see plainly how the market has come to a dead stop at the top of yesterday's High volume H1 bar. Interesting. {image}
Yep, you will be amazed at how well price respects the zones. You really need to have a basic understanding of VSA terms and what a few bar types are to really follow along as I do make reference to some VSA bars for entries. It will all come together if you have a little patience and do some reading. Any questions not answered in the thread or on post 1, ask away.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #387
  • Jan 14, 2016 8:49am Jan 14, 2016 8:49am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I was hoping more would participate on the 3 bar pattern question but I guess not... will post something on it later.
What 2BR didn't work? Please show me specially? When you fib only the highest volume bar there is no 2BR trade so it wouldn't have failed.
No it was not failed if you mark highest volume bar without caring about spread. that was exception that I asked if we mark wide spread bars. Thanks for Replying was waiting badly
Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #388
  • Jan 14, 2016 9:24am Jan 14, 2016 9:24am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I may add this to the FAQ on post 1 as I do get this question a lot. I ALWAYS have the zone from yesterday on my chart when the new day starts. Then I zoom out and look to see if I can find a recent zone above and below the current in play zone that is around the ADR away (may be a little closer, could be a little further). The reason for this is that it gives a nice target IF we get a trade from the current (yesterday's) zone. In the case of the EURGBP zone we were at the lower target zone when LO came around so the roles switches and the...
Thanks Prez, good clear explanation! Do you have a criteria for when a zone can be removed, for instance the grey fibs mark todays highest 1hr volume (9am GMT). The fact that the range high and low have been breached does that mean it is a dead zone now? However I notice the 50% point caused a reaction a few mins ago.
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  • #389
  • Jan 14, 2016 9:43am Jan 14, 2016 9:43am
Quoting andys0506
{quote} Thanks Prez, good clear explanation! Do you have a criteria for when a zone can be removed, for instance the grey fibs mark todays highest 1hr volume (9am GMT). The fact that the range high and low have been breached does that mean it is a dead zone now? However I notice the 50% point caused a reaction a few mins ago. {image}
​If you look the move up into the 50% actually made a new zone today and as we can see was full of sellers despite being a bull looking bar. Also the H of the zone was NOT breached. It was only a false move above that was not sustained, nor tested so that break is not considered a break. Look at your 15 min chart, one close above and boom right back inside. The fact they made a new daily high on that fake move is all the better and confirmed the zone as weak when the low gave way. Once that low broke we are for sure in sellers mode now with options to take a short from the L or the 50%.

So let's say we shorted from that 50%... what's our target? The H to 50% of yesterday's zone. For what it's worth the 50% of yesterday's zone from today's high is right around the ADR for EURUSD.

I love when we get new zones today right at a days H or L and then break the L or H after we moved away from yesterday's zone. That's a great intraday reversal signal which allows us to trade back towards yesterday's zone making money both ways as the market does it's thing.

As far as when to remove today's zones. If you found a trade from a zone leave it on till the trade plays out. If you mark a zone today and don't find a trade and the next bar prints an even higher volume zone re-draw your fib. That said this ONLY applies if we are not working with yesterday's zone. If LO comes and we are above yesterday's zone watch for a move into the zone for a long and don't worry about todays zone at that point. Only use zones from today IF yesterday's zone is too far away from the PA, but ALWAYS leave the zone from yesterday on because though it may not produce and entry it could become a target.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #390
  • Jan 14, 2016 10:34am Jan 14, 2016 10:34am
Great as always . thanks pres. ☺
Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #391
  • Jan 14, 2016 10:35am Jan 14, 2016 10:35am
Levels... take a look at today's PA on EURUSD, 1hr chart only for this post.

  1. Last hour before LO we moved down into the zone 50% from yesterday. Up we go.
  2. LO we print a wide range bar on the highest volume of the day.
  3. Next hourly bar tests the H of the LO bar but closed back inside the zone. It's on higher volume so we have a new zone that is at the days H.
  4. Next couple of hours we make our way back to the zone H. The L and H remain unbroken so at most we can scalp the levels (using lower TF - MUST measure R:R. Can we get 1:1 before next level?).
  5. The 5th hour of London session and the last hour before zone - we have now a confirmed break of the L and are back at yesterday's zone H (shared level)
  6. Second hour of NY session pushed hard back into the zone and pinged the 50%. ​Please take note of the H and 50% of this newest bar and how they align with the levels of what was the current zone
  7. Next bar we see result from the effort back into the zone with a massively wide spread UHV down bar into yesterday's zone. Please take note of the H, 50% and L of this new zone. H = 50% of what was today's current zone, 50% = L of today's current zone and L = L of yesterday's zone (well close enough for the sake of this post).


As I typed this we are bouncing from that zone L shared level between today's and yesterday's zone. I won't mention that the zone from Tuesday had it's 50% at this very same level because that would blow your minds and I really won't tell you that the H of Tuesday zone is 50% of Wednesday's zone because you might never come back!

I have said before how we see volume print at volume and how we see these zones shared levels. We see this happen again and again. How you use this information is up to you.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #392
  • Edited 11:20am Jan 14, 2016 10:46am | Edited 11:20am
If anyone has already read post 391 (before the time of me writing this post 392) I edited the crap out of it due to typos and unfinished thoughts. Please re-read it.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #393
  • Jan 14, 2016 6:20pm Jan 14, 2016 6:20pm
In this post the "new zone" you are referring to is the London open bar correct? Although the High of the bar gets taken our...That is the highest volume bar before the UHV downbar in US session. Which will actually be the zone for 1/15. Or I'm just doing this wrong.

Quoting pres78
Levels... take a look at today's PA on EURUSD, 1hr chart only for this post. Last hour before LO we moved down into the zone 50% from yesterday. Up we go. LO we print a wide range bar on the highest volume of the day. Next hourly bar tests the H of the LO bar but closed back inside the zone. It's on higher volume so we have a new zone that is at the days H. Next couple of hours we make our way back to the zone H. The L and H remain unbroken so at most we can scalp the levels (using lower TF - MUST measure R:R. Can we get 1:1 before next level?)....
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  • #394
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:12pm Jan 14, 2016 7:12pm
Quoting RaverStyleTim2
In this post the "new zone" you are referring to is the London open bar correct? Although the High of the bar gets taken our...That is the highest volume bar before the UHV downbar in US session. Which will actually be the zone for 1/15. Or I'm just doing this wrong. {quote} {image}
​That's correct except for me the bar before the wide spread down bar was actually higher volume than the LO bar as was the bar right after LO. As always we can only trade what our charts are giving us. You are right about the zone for tomorrow.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #395
  • Jan 15, 2016 3:36am Jan 15, 2016 3:36am
Quoting pres78
{quote} I was hoping more would participate on the 3 bar pattern question but I guess not... .
My thoughtless answer on this one is that it's a fake-out/bear-trap in that there is a two-bar reversal and then a SO/test. Also on the 5 min that pattern will look like a doji bar (indecision) on the 15min. An effective way to clear out over-head supply and then testing for more supply below (the fake break in the middle has the highest volume and the last SO bar is on lower volume)?
I'll be honest I've no idea Im just shooting in the dark!
Volume at Volume
  • #396
  • Jan 15, 2016 3:48am Jan 15, 2016 3:48am
Im guilty of asking lots of questions but this might be one for post #1:
I see the confluence's from HVC's that seem to make them extremely powerful (for example on Gold yesterday price ended the day down but it hit an old level from a few weeks ago). See chart.

Thats great and it really draws me in to this style of analysis like the others here but my problem right now is that in worried about missing out on a trade at one of these key zones and Im finding my chart is packed with lines which ultimately leads to some indecision on my part. The price moves between these levels (in a satisfying way to the eye!) but they often seem so close together even on the 5min to get an adequate target.

I guess the meta-question is am I over-complicating this and giving every level on my chart (regardless of when they formed) the same significance or should I be simplifying and sticking only with yesterday's and LO if its outside?
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Volume at Volume
  • #397
  • Edited 8:23am Jan 15, 2016 8:08am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting VSAgav
Im guilty of asking lots of questions but this might be one for post #1: I see the confluence's from HVC's that seem to make them extremely powerful (for example on Gold yesterday price ended the day down but it hit an old level from a few weeks ago). See chart. Thats great and it really draws me in to this style of analysis like the others here but my problem right now is that in worried about missing out on a trade at one of these key zones and Im finding my chart is packed with lines which ultimately leads to some indecision on my part. The price...
​He who does not understand and is to proud to ask remains lost forever. I am a big believer in the teaching a man to fish philosophy verus giving him the fish. That is why over the years I have turned down countless requests to sell my signals or to trade others money for them. I have no interest in doing the work for others. I am interested in helping others who are willing to help themselves.

This is and has always been a hot topic and in all honesty a tough subject as there is some subjectivity to it and as with trading in general we really do need to find what works for us the best and what we are the happiest with. I have had several cases in the past where people would mock and state "if I throw enough lines on my chart price will for sure react to one of them". While that is true I have shown time and time again how using the zones is not a random act and how prices moves to and from and within these zones on a consistent enough basis to not write it off as a fluke.

As I have stated the very basics and simplest form or VZA is this.

  1. At the start of the new trading day (using NY close as a reference) place a fib on the highest volume 1hr bar from the day before (regardless of spread)
  2. Take the fib's hinge (50%) and place a line at the daily ADR above and below the hinge
  3. Zoom out and find a zone at those lines to use as a target if we get an entry from our previous days zone. Again this target zone could be at, or slightly closer than or slightly further away than the days ADR line. This is simply a targeted point of interest where we expect some sort of countermanding reaction to what the trade direction would be.
  4. Always place the most weight on the most current zones (yesterday's and today's as they form - both for new possible trade set-ups and also for signs that PA may be reversing on current positions etc...)

It really can be that simple. What could be better than starting each new day with a plan for where you would expect to see a set-up and targets for those set-ups? Obviously we don't get set-ups into yesterday's zones everyday and have to trade the current zones and adjust our plan as we go but starting with a plan is better than waking up at LO with no plan at all.

As time allows I will try and talk more on this subject but your concern is a valid one gav, we could end up with messy charts if we don't manage them properly. Stick to the simple plan I noted above until it's like breathing and then decide if you want to dissect the method further.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #398
  • Jan 15, 2016 12:58pm Jan 15, 2016 12:58pm
As always super appreciate your generosity in sharing your experience and knowledge Pres.
Im going to chew on this over the weekend.
Volume at Volume
  • #399
  • Jan 15, 2016 2:53pm Jan 15, 2016 2:53pm
Okay, so this week I had 5 trades, 2 winners 3 losers. The losers were caused by nuances I forgot about, and shouldn't have taken the trades anyway (twice the no demands were able to close back inside the zone, and once the ND wasn't confirmed and had too big spread, so likely it wasn't an ND.)
I'm risking 2%, the winners would have made 5,3%, which would be more than satisfying for me for a week, but the losers made -6%, so -0,7% overall.

Now the problem is, that I don't have strict enough rules yet. This strategy has a true edge, I paper traded this enough to know that, but live I start to become cautious when I should be bold, and become bold when I should be cautious. So I try to make the strategy as mechanical as possible, with written rules. I wrote this beta version of the rules for myself, but I would really appreciate if you guys and especially pres would give some feedback about it, if I missed something, or should modify. After that it could be even put into the FAQ in the first comment as some VZA starter strategy.

Rules:
1. Mark yesterday’s highest volume H1 bars and set alerts
2. Wait for entry signals at their edges (preferably in H1 trend direction)
3. Entry signals: ND/NS, pres 2BR (personally I included the normal 2BR and the upthrust/spring too. I also have detailed description about all 4 of them, either from original VSA material or from this thread about how they look like, where they close, etc.)
4. Any of these appear at the edge as the zone rejects the price (price must touch the zone and close outside it), place a pending order above/below the candle formation
5. Stop at the last swingpoint or 75% into the zone, whichever is closer. Except if the zone is too tight, then stop is at last swingpoint (so far I used this, but if there is a better SL rule for VZA, let me know)
6. $$$$$$$

This is it so far, any tips how to improve it, what to change? Thanks in advance
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #400
  • Edited Jan 16, 2016 4:49am Jan 15, 2016 3:46pm | Edited Jan 16, 2016 4:49am
Would humbly suggest you put this on the front page, as it explains everything in it's simplest form.

Quoting pres78
{quote}As I have stated the very basics and simplest form or VZA is this.

 

  1. At the start of the new trading day (using NY close as a reference) place a fib on the highest volume 1hr bar from the day before (regardless of spread)
  2. Take the fib's hinge (50%) and place a line at the daily ADR above and below the hinge
  3. Zoom out and find a zone at those lines to use as a target if we get an entry from our previous days zone. Again this target zone could be at, or slightly closer than or slightly further away than the days ADR line. This is simply a targeted point of interest where we expect some sort of countermanding reaction to what the trade direction would be.
  4. Always place the most weight on the most current zones (yesterday's and today's as they form - both for new possible trade set-ups and also for signs that PA may be reversing on current positions etc...)

PS: Really interested in that 3BR pattern you discussed. I tried going back through some charts but nothing stuck out, so eager to find out what I missed.
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