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Crude Oil... free fall?

  • #21
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:21am Aug 12, 2015 5:21am
Quoting algorafmad
{quote} I'd like to stress a lot this point. The price is not given just by 1) Production/Need ratio; 2) Traders' activities. Nowadays, manipulating the market is the biggest war weapon rich Countries have.
Apart from nuclear weapons, so perhaps that's next.
  • #22
  • Aug 12, 2015 5:32am Aug 12, 2015 5:32am
Quoting cat
{quote} Apart from nuclear weapons, so perhaps that's next.
Ahah Mmhhh.... nuclear weapons bring lots of bad rep from other Countries. Manipulating the market is a more subtle, clearer approach. And probably deadlier in the long run.
  • #23
  • Aug 19, 2015 1:37am Aug 19, 2015 1:37am
Quoting algorafmad
Hello everybody, when do you think the price will stop falling in the mid term? {image}
There is strong resistance above $45. IMHO, it is safe to sell Crude for mid and long term. It will be much safer to sell Crude after FOMC.
Meditate -> Workout -> Good Food = Good Life!
  • #24
  • Aug 20, 2015 2:55am Aug 20, 2015 2:55am
strangely Opec do nothing bout it
  • #25
  • Dec 14, 2015 3:21pm Dec 14, 2015 3:21pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I'm not sure if you are asking me, but anyway - I only trade wti derivatives and don't pay so much attention to Brent & the Brent/wti spread. Some of the other oil traders here have noted they think the spread will widen and I might concur there, but I don't have a number in mind for Brent. I still think $36 low for wti is on the table this Fall if we see another strong surge in USD strength.....which itself is likely if/when the Fed starts to raise the fed funds rate in Sept.... All that said, I don't have any oil trades on now,...
Great call.

All the while others were claiming support was coming but as you also pointed out in a prior post demand has been slackening / supply rising even with U.S. rig counts going down plus Dollar strength.

And amazingly some still are claiming this is support. No not that, this is. Well maybe here.
  • #26
  • Edited 11:40pm Dec 14, 2015 11:21pm | Edited 11:40pm
Quoting SunTrader
And amazingly some still are claiming this is support. No not that, this is. Well maybe here.
wti will probably go lower - we could be looking at $33 within weeks and within 3-4 months, sub $30. If wti traded like US domestic natgas, it could grind down there and flatline for years, which is indeed what natgas is doing - with an occasional spike due to exogenous influences on demand (for gas, that'd be weather - a polar vortex squatting on the NE USA, etc) .....and natgas will grind down and trade < $1.75 until the LNG plants come online and it can be converted and exported in a big way.

Same factors apply to oil - supply glut and flattish demand - but oil is much more complicated, obviously a more globalized market, but also extreme variability in the parameters that impact how it is brought to market. There are lots of possible scenarios, but I won't bore you - suffice it to say that oil is a wild mofo that will take the very best traders to task to make money trading it year in/year out. I still don't trade it much, because there are just no real good instruments I can use to trade it in my IRA accounts, which is all I am really interested in trading anymore.

If none of the big-picture fundamentals are changing much, I would fade any >5-10% bump in wti. Meanwhile, if it drops sub-$30 in Q1, I will throw some pennies at some wide USO calls calendars (like Apr/Jul) to try to catch a seasonal updraft in the wti price.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #27
  • Edited Dec 19, 2015 12:00am Dec 18, 2015 1:06am | Edited Dec 19, 2015 12:00am
I see no relief for the crude oil prices! I mean look at the fundamentals and technical of the black gold. Major Support at $33 level and resistance at $40. The oversupply concerns and a failed recent OPEC meeting makes me feel bad for the Oil prices. There is a internal war going on I guess with Saudi Arabia not willing to step down as the export king. Iran too coming in view along with Indonesia. I feel that at least it will take a year to bring the prices back to normal which I am quite unsure of. I can see the $30 as soon as next month if the present conditions prevail in the market.
  • #28
  • Dec 18, 2015 8:01am Dec 18, 2015 8:01am
Quoting ArjunMakhija
I see no relief for the crude oil prices! I mean look at the fundamentals and technical of the black gold. Major resistance at $33 level and support at $40. The oversupply concerns and a failed recent OPEC meeting makes me feel bad for the Oil prices. There is a internal war going on I guess with Saudi Arabia not willing to step down as the export king. Iran too coming in view along with Indonesia. I feel that at least it will take a year to bring the prices back to normal which I am quite unsure of. I can see the $30 as soon as next month if the...
The Saudis are not giving an "inch" because really there is no "inch" to give.

Every one of the oil exporting countries are suffering and no one wants to slow supply. Buyers market. Plain and simple.

BTW I think you meant $30 support (above).
  • #29
  • Dec 19, 2015 12:16am Dec 19, 2015 12:16am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} The Saudis are not giving an "inch" because really there is no "inch" to give. Every one of the oil exporting countries are suffering and no one wants to slow supply. Buyers market. Plain and simple. BTW I think you meant $30 support (above).
Yes Sir, I agree with you. I am a beginner so please correct me if I am wrong, I think the current rout in market is not beneficial to anyone. Wall Street is suffering due to which the sentiment in the global market too gets disturbed. Once US reduces the cost of production of Shale Gas, things would be very difficult for the OPEC to control Prices. There will be oil floods in the market!!

What do you think that OPEC should do to keep the prices under reign?
  • #30
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:43am Jan 12, 2016 1:43am
I'm a beginner in the field of the stock exchange, however what I hear from the media is that oil reserves have a limit and yet producers can, for x reasons, to open or close the valves
  • #31
  • Jan 13, 2016 3:57am Jan 13, 2016 3:57am
Quoting darkducobu
I'm a beginner in the field of the stock exchange, however what I hear from the media is that oil reserves have a limit and yet producers can, for x reasons, to open or close the valves
Hey, the oil reserves do have a limit as in the end oil is a non renewable source of energy. Now the point is that in the market due to supply reasons, weather conditions and geopolitical reasons, crude oil is falling free. I mean everyday it touches new lows. Supply glut is on it level best as every country specially Saudi Arabia is pumping oil day night in order to maintain its market share. Then SA's problem with Iran has for me scratched any positive prospective for oil as both oil producing nations would not agree to control the rout. Then we have el nino in US which has caused changes in weather and drop in demand. and not to forget China.The country is going through economic slowdown and its leading importer of oil and now that its importing less, we see a substantial rise in supply. I am very bearish for crude oil giving the reasons above. I see prices fall to $25 in next one month. I might be wrong too, but my analysis says that!

Happy Trading!!
  • #32
  • Jan 13, 2016 8:46am Jan 13, 2016 8:46am
Better to trade than analyze.

Missed your prior post. There is very, very little OPEC can do currently about price.
  • #33
  • Jan 13, 2016 9:00am Jan 13, 2016 9:00am
Quoting darkducobu
I'm a beginner in the field of the stock exchange, however what I hear from the media is that oil reserves have a limit and yet producers can, for x reasons, to open or close the valves
Yes, oil is a finite resource but we as humans have not even scratched on the surface of the amounts that are still in the earth. With new technology (fracking, plasma etc.) we could still live decades with the oil if we wanted to and are willing to develop these and other technologies. The question is if we should do that or look elsewhere for "cleaner" energy sources.

The notion that oil is coming to an end has been a popular mantra pushed by politicians, environmentalists etc. to support their agenda and you could say they were very successful with it. The decline in oil price based on less demand shows that clearly.

But I have faith in the ingenuity of mankind to do the right thing even with (or despite) the shortcomings of the free markets or fiat system. We will figure it out, because we have to otherwise we will be gone....
  • #34
  • Jan 13, 2016 9:56am Jan 13, 2016 9:56am
Quoting Gela
{quote} Yes, oil is a finite resource but we as humans have not even scratched on the surface of the amounts that are still in the earth. With new technology (fracking, plasma etc.) we could still live decades with the oil if we wanted to and are willing to develop these and other technologies. The question is if we should do that or look elsewhere for "cleaner" energy sources. The notion that oil is coming to an end has been a popular mantra pushed by politicians, environmentalists etc. to support their agenda and you could say they were very successful...
Agree. Except the part about politicians pushing other sources being a reason for current slowing of demand. California being the dominant eviro-wacko state here in U.S. They still have 20 or 30 million gas powered cars driving there every day. Overall worldwide crude demand is down because economies worldwide are down. Period.
  • #35
  • Last Post: Jan 31, 2016 9:58pm Jan 31, 2016 9:58pm
Have we seen the bottom? The price rebounded pretty strong after hitting $26. Was this the bottom or we're just witnessing a dead cat bounce?
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