Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

Hi Graviton,

Thanks for your wishes Wishing you a Happy New Year with Green Pips

Back to work today. Trading simply, tight stops and 3 to 1 reward to risk, multi-timeframe trends and multi-lots. Making a nice steady profit. Volatile markets, so keeping trade size small, less than 0.01 lots per $1,000 account balance. Simple, safe and profitable. A nice start to the new year. -G

Hi G,

maybe it is the right time to discuss the JPY. The question is: when/how do you decide that the current strong JPY movements are happening because of risk off movement or a strong Japanese economy? The strong economy looks a bit tough statement however for many pairs we are not talking about only a couple of hundreds pips movement but really big moves out there. For this reason I would like to know on which side of the JPY pairs you are or which currencies are you currently trading? (see the way the question is asked in the last sentence: I did not ask specific pairs or setups, just currencies).

Thanks,
IBO

Sure IBO. This is rather difficult to talk about since a rising Yen means falling Yen pairs, and visa versa, but I'll try. I had been short most JPY pairs, trading a strengthening JPY until today. Today the Yen showed some weakness and tight stops took me out of most of my long Yen (short Yen Pairs) trades. This could just be a short term retracement after some strong Yen moves over the past couple months, but I decided on tight stops going in so I had to take the exits. There's some current discussion here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...cks-2016-01-11

You can find much more fundamental discussion just by googling "Yen News". I'm not able to short the yen now though since longer term H4 and above trends still have Yen rising (Yen pairs falling), so I'm sitting on the sidelines with the Yen. I'll be happy to re-enter the shorts like AJ, NJ and GJ if the short timeframe trends line back up with the longer timeframe stronger Yen trends. That's what I would normally expect to happen, unless there has been some major shift in long term fundamentals, which would reverse long term trends. I suppose that's possible with China's economy faltering, but even if this is the beginning of a new weakening Yen long term trend, I wouldn't be able to trade it with my system for a long time until the longer term trends line up with the short term trends. This is a good example of how trading only with long term trends prevents whipsaws. I hope that makes sense. Good question, thanks. -G

Hi G,

quick question: yesterday the GBP/JPY retracement took me out of my trades at breakeven. I just wonder if you are riding it through (if yes, would be nice to have a print screen with your SLs) or if you were also taken out and you also re-entered.

Thanks,
IBO

Nope. I exited also. Markets are in turmoil today. I'm mostly on the sidelines until things stabilize a bit.

Seeing some stability in the markets now. Re-entering.

Hi G,

haven´t talked for a while. What do you think of the following trends: JPY strength vs. GBP, CHF and CAD. GBP weakness vs. USD and AUD.

CAD might be at turning points for a couple of them on the long-term charts.

These are my best ones at the moment.

Cheers,

IBO

Greetings IBO. Sorry to be so slow to get back to you. I'm generally trading Long AUD and CAD now and short EUR, CHF, USD GPB at the moment. I'm thinking Oil has hit it's bottom for a while, so CAD should recover a bit. Good to hear from you. Hope your trading is going well. -G

Hi Graviton,
I´ve been a silent lurker of your fantastic thread for some time. At the moment I´m experimenting with your trading approach on demo.
One question regarding the entry criteria: when you say that all tf have to move in the same direction to give a valid entry signal, do you mean that every current candle/bar in every tf has to go down or up simultaneously? Or do you mean that just the general direction of every tf indicated by the 5ema/10sma has to be aligned?
Thanks again for your thread and the wealth of knowledge you´ve presented here!
Best
sk

Hi SK, nice to hear from you. Generally, I'd want all the timeframes to be moving in the same direction by some discrete criteria. I'd think just using the current candle may work for higher timeframes, like weekly and daily, but the current candle wouldn't mean much for shorter timeframes like H1 and below, as those change quickly and are prone to minor news spikes. The 5emaX10sma is a little more stable, as would be the RSI or some other moving average type criteria. At the moment, I'm using both of those criteria agreeing across all timeframes to signal an entry, but I doubt any indicator will work all the time under all market conditions. I also pay close attention to central bank statements and actions, since they are the big dogs in currency markets. Typically, central bank long term policy sets long term trends.

I'd advise testing different entry criteria in demo accounts and with back-testing until you find what works well for you. Do keep in mind that something that has worked well for a very long time in the past may suddenly quit working due to changing market conditions. Forex is rather famous for making such abrupt changes in character and direction. For that reason, I'd suggest that even after you have settled on criteria, continue experimenting and studying to try to discover better ways to do things. That way, when your old method seems to be failing you due to changing market conditions (guaranteed to happen at some point), you will already have devised something better to move to. Thanks for the good question. Best success!

Hi Graviton,
thanks a lot for sharing your insight!
At the moment I´m experimenting with entry criteria similar to the ones you presented here and with pending orders that seem to work well for me and fit better to my 9 to 5 job.
Fundamentally I´m long USD and short GBP and AUD at the moment. USD has shown underlying strength despite weak NFP data, AUD has weakened after the RBA rate cut and GBP is more and more affected by Brexit fears.
Would be great if you could keep on posting your thoughts from time to time. Your thread has been truly eye opening, at least for me.
Best
SK

Sounds good SK. I'll check this thread from time to time as I can. I'd advise that you continue with demo trading and back-testing until you are consistently profitable there. Then, when you move to real cash trading, trade the absolute minimum, like 0.01 lots per trade, until you are consistently profitable. Best success.

Just been reading through your thread over the last week and must say its excellent. Some really nice stuff on here Graviton, really clear and nicely written.

You're definitely swaying me towards position trading too. Does just make sense to grow your account with the trends, let the market do the work for you.

Thanks Revorocks. Take anything you find useful and leave the rest. I usually stop in every so often, so if you have any questions or comments feel free to vent. Best success. -G

G-
Excellent thread! Would it be possible to post one of your long runners? Just the initial entry date, level and TF? I would like to play the trade out for myself and use it for future reference.

Thanks,

Kz

Hi Kz. I'm currently just trading a week at a time, so I enter trades as they develop early in the week and exit Thursday or Friday, Thursday if I'm unusually ahead for the week and Friday if not. That's because my time is very limited now so I can just stay out of the market for the week if I don't have time to follow the trades. I probably will return to longer term position trading in the future when I have more time available and I'll be sure to come back here to post those trades here when I enter them. Best success. -G

Hi G, Just wanted to drop you a note to wish you well and tell you how much I appreciate all that you have contributed. I regularly re-read your notes which are invaluable for me. All is well here, and I continue to pluck away. Like you, my time constraints have limited my trading, but I am satisfied. Best AG

Hey AG. Great to hear from you. Glad to hear you are doing well. I've been doing ok, but I seem to tire out more quickly these days. I can still do what I used to do, I just can't do it as long as I used to. LOL, Take care and keep in touch. -G

Hi i have a question please. Am on page 35 and you talk about that 30-35 percent grow a year is very good but little earlier you say 3-5 percent per week is your goal and you usualy get it ??? so what is it ? Also i see your first thread on another forum and there your strategy seems different have you abondon that one in favor of this one ?

Best regards