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I'm quiting trading but can someone elighten me on this?

  • #61
  • Jan 9, 2016 11:10am Jan 9, 2016 11:10am
Quoting Don M
Hi Crimson, GBP/NZD is highly trending and volatile so anything can happen. Regarding news since banks buy the rumour and sell the news the opposite reaction can easily happen. I'm in this trade to catch the trend which started on the daily Jan 4 with a bullish engulfing candle. It paused the last few days at the middle bollinger band (there would have been a ton of sell orders there since overall it is in a downtrend) and now has moved up towards next resistance at 2.2370 and then the top band at 2.2570ish. Overall the weekly tells me we are in...
Excellent entry at that engulfing after support held - I'd definitely trail it to allow for that resistance to be reached at 2.25.
Also the best piece of advice
Quote
Rather than quit I think you need to switch to a longer timeframe so you can ignore the noise.
  • #62
  • Jan 9, 2016 11:30am Jan 9, 2016 11:30am
Quoting Crimson
What the F!@K happened this morning? Im trading the GBP/NZD and there is no major news that should affect this pair but guess what, it did and even the non farm payroll for USD also somehow managed to cause some volatility on this pair. my broker even widened the spread to over 200 pips for 10 mins. I have attached a screenshot of GBP/NZD on 1H timeframe....as far as im concened, this pair was ranging and breakout was going to happen at some point but this huge boost for GBP or weakness for NZD despite no economic news is suspicious. i had checked...
Reasons:so many.one of this is that support has been formed which negates brekdown
-CKB
  • #63
  • Jan 9, 2016 11:36am Jan 9, 2016 11:36am
Quoting seahorse
{quote} Im more intraday. And yes D can be a turning point. Neither do I. I prefer price come to me. I wish green pips for you.
Thank you. Green pips to you too .
  • #64
  • Jan 9, 2016 12:31pm Jan 9, 2016 12:31pm
Quoting seahorse
{quote}I prefer price come to me.
Nicely put.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #65
  • Jan 9, 2016 3:41pm Jan 9, 2016 3:41pm
Quoting DemoAntares
Excellent entry at that engulfing after support held
What makes candle 4 (in my screenshot) a valid entry, but not candles 1, 2 and 3? All are engulfing body candles in a lengthy downtrend; 1 and 2 are both outside bars, and 2 has plenty of support (prior candle lows) just above the white lines I've added.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PPI 040.png Size: 46 KB
  • #66
  • Edited 10:06pm Jan 9, 2016 8:12pm | Edited 10:06pm
I also wouldn't recommend short term trading (or scalping) for the most (99%) traders.

Better focus on catching a good portion of every weeks trend/direction and if you're more advanced then scale in aggressively .

For that you really have to sit tight and watch. ;-)
  • #67
  • Jan 9, 2016 8:29pm Jan 9, 2016 8:29pm
[quote=hanover;8680929]{quote} What makes candle 4 (in my screenshot) a valid entry, but not candles 1, 2 and 3? All are engulfing body candles in a lengthy downtrend; 1 and 2 are both outside bars, and 2 has plenty of support (prior candle lows) just above the white lines I've added. {image}[/quote

Hanover you hit it on the head! Had to erase what I wanted to say not to upset others!
  • #68
  • Jan 9, 2016 8:49pm Jan 9, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting numbnuts
You know what's funny, back in 2013 everybody was saying the markets are untradeable, volatility is too low, nobody can make money until currencies start moving again. Now they are moving again, people are complaining about the volatility and pining for the good old days of 2013. If you are looking at a currency cross like GBP/NZD and trying to apply technical analysis to it, you need to stop trading and go back to basics - start by learning what a currency cross is, and how it's price is calculated - Hanover gave you a big clue in post #9. GBP/NZD...
this is the only psychology of trading that is always true, i learnt it 4 weeks ago and since then i have increased my loosing account by 460%
  • #69
  • Jan 9, 2016 9:01pm Jan 9, 2016 9:01pm
"I'm quitting trading..."

Smart move.

George is focused. He devotes 3 hours a day for 10 years, perfecting his trading skills. Over the next 10 years, he trades full-time, makes a million dollars, and wins universal praise in forex forums.

Overall, his hourly rate comes in at around $30.

Meanwhile, his wife has divorced him, he hardly knows his kids, his friends have all moved on, and his original career (a job where he actually did something useful) has gone down the pan. Not to mention deep vein thrombosis. George doesn't know what that is, but he will. Next week.
  • #70
  • Jan 9, 2016 9:29pm Jan 9, 2016 9:29pm
Quoting AllanS
"I'm quitting trading..." Smart move. George is focused. He devotes 3 hours a day for 10 years, perfecting his trading skills. Over the next 10 years, he trades full-time, makes a million dollars, and wins universal praise in forex forums. Overall, his hourly rate comes in at around $30. Meanwhile, his wife has divorced him, he hardly knows his kids, his friends have all moved on, and his original career (a job where he actually did something useful) has gone down the pan. Not to mention deep vein thrombosis. George doesn't know what that is, but...
Alternate ending:

Now that George is a millionaire, he can travel and take a little time off.

1. He meets a new wife.
2. He has more kids.
3. He makes new friends.
4. He has the resources to return to school and reinvent himself into anything he wants, screw that original career.
5. He learns to exercise and avoid things like DVT.( Hopefully he learns the ills of sitting quite some time ago).
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #71
  • Edited Jan 10, 2016 12:29am Jan 9, 2016 9:55pm | Edited Jan 10, 2016 12:29am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Alternate ending: Now that George is a millionaire, he can travel and take a little time off. 1. He meets a new wife. 2. He has more kids. 3. He makes new friends. 4. He has the resources to return to school and reinvent himself into anything he wants, screw that original career. 5. He learns to exercise and avoid things like DVT.( Hopefully he learns the ills of sitting quite some time ago).
Alternate ending:

After all those frustrating years of learning, George is finally on top of his game and then a tax audit is announced by the tax regulator whereby George unfortunately who has not provisioned for taxes given his past poor trading history is forced into bankruptcy and his new wife is forced to return her implants. *sniggers*

The moral of the story is that the markets are uncertain....death and taxes are certain :-)
  • #72
  • Jan 10, 2016 12:06am Jan 10, 2016 12:06am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Alternate ending: After all those frustrating years of learning, George is finally on top of his game and then a tax audit is announced by the tax regulator whereby George unfortunately who has not provisioned for taxes give his past poor trading history is forced into bankruptcy and his new wife is forced to return her implants. *sniggers* The moral of the story is that the markets are uncertain....death and taxes are certain :-)
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #73
  • Jan 10, 2016 12:24am Jan 10, 2016 12:24am
7:15am GMT China publish the trading range of the Yuan each day . such events are a good time to be prepared to trade.
  • #74
  • Edited 12:51am Jan 10, 2016 12:38am | Edited 12:51am
Quoting hanover
{quote} What makes candle 4 (in my screenshot) a valid entry, but not candles 1, 2 and 3? All are engulfing body candles in a lengthy downtrend; 1 and 2 are both outside bars, and 2 has plenty of support (prior candle lows) just above the white lines I've added. {image}
This "would" be my point of view and analysis - would is under quotation marks because it's easy to be a general after the battle - but to show how I think. I could write additional 1/2 page of text for every potential entry and why I would/wouldn't take it, but probably the only entry I'd go for with high certainty is that top pattern...
The pattern at 4 would be a version of a Bullish Breakaway, pattern which I personally don't like on forex, I would trade that only on stock cfd's...probably (overtrade can be a bi..h)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hanover daily.PNG Size: 103 KB
  • #75
  • Jan 10, 2016 5:44am Jan 10, 2016 5:44am
Crimson, It doesn't matter..........it doesn't matter........again and again and again.......
  • #76
  • Edited 8:44am Jan 10, 2016 8:13am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting DemoAntares
This "would" be my point of view and analysis........
Many thanks for your honest and comprehensive answer. I've never entered counter-trend positions. However, I know that there are traders who do this successfully, and I've always been curious to know exactly how they operate, especially how they filter 'bad' signals out of their entries.
  • #77
  • Jan 10, 2016 8:30am Jan 10, 2016 8:30am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Many thanks for your honest and comprehensive answer. I've never entered counter-trend positions. However, I know that there are traders who do this successfully, and I've always been curious to know exactly how they operate, especially how they filter 'bad' signals out of their entries.
I couldn't tell - that's why I don't trade ranges - I was trying to do it on russells 2000 components for a long time, but statistically I traded too few of those in order to make a "trustworthy statistics"...I do enjoy finding reversals in forex though...and I enjoy even more finding continuations on stocks - since most reliable continuation patterns rely on gaping play, it's 2 signals per year in forex ....so I disregard them when trading forex.
  • #78
  • Jan 10, 2016 11:38am Jan 10, 2016 11:38am
Quoting Crimson
What the F!@K happened this morning? Im trading the GBP/NZD and there is no major news that should affect this pair but guess what, it did and even the non farm payroll for USD also somehow managed to cause some volatility on this pair. my broker even widened the spread to over 200 pips for 10 mins. I have attached a screenshot of GBP/NZD on 1H timeframe....as far as im concened, this pair was ranging and breakout was going to happen at some point but this huge boost for GBP or weakness for NZD despite no economic news is suspicious. i had checked...
wanna quit,quit,dont wait others convince you to stay in.wanna trade,trade
gbpnzd isnt major currecny and it has no promise to you to stay calm just becasue there is no major news.gbp is one of the most maniplated currency and on other side nzd.good combination for moving to margincall but also good for your bad rr take profit for sure
  • #79
  • Jan 10, 2016 12:26pm Jan 10, 2016 12:26pm
Hi Crimson,

The Currency Market is a Neutral Ground where anybody can succeed, but if you are trying to impose your will, you will be Exposed...

Instead of quitting right now, you need to look into the Mirror and admit what you are doing WRONG, and Learn from it to change
your perspective.

GBP is Strong / NZD is Weak = The Market will go UP

GBP is Weak / NZD is Strong = The Market will go DOWN

GBP is Strong / NZD is Strong = Expect Indecision or sideways move, and stay away.

GBP is Weak / NZD is Weak = Expect Indecision or Sideways Move, and Stay away.

Why forcing yourself to trade GBP/NZD when you can trade GBP/USD and NZD/USD at the same time?

Guess what? Both of them will go in the same Direction when USD is the dominant Factor that day... Like NFP or FOMC News.
Have an INVESTOR Mindset, but Trade like an ENTREPRENEUR
  • #80
  • Jan 10, 2016 12:40pm Jan 10, 2016 12:40pm
Something you may not know is retail trading only accounts for about 5% of the Forex trading. The other 95% is commercial transactions. So if a major corporation, say Shell Oil, wants to repatriate a few billion pounds from NZD To GBP, they might just go to the Commercial banks, which in turn dump it on the market, causing large moves you can't predict with any method. Now, if you have a $60 stop loss and a $180 TP, you can make a nice income off those large random moves, or at least control the loss, but you can never avoid all losses. It's something to consider carefully. Best success. -G
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