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  • #2,141
  • Jan 4, 2016 4:04pm Jan 4, 2016 4:04pm
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Ok, next time I will pay more attention to the wording when I listen to the radio or TV news. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35222365
In any case oil prices should have gone higher.
I guess market is telling us that inventory is still way to much even if ties are broken.
Or that market will see more price Competition
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,142
  • Jan 5, 2016 12:42am Jan 5, 2016 12:42am
This morning on 'the radio' there was brief discussion about the situation between Iran and Saudi et al.

The scenario was described as a perfect storm for Iran which has accrued negative world sentiment at a time when the previous sanctions and embargoes are being lifted. The cause was the handling, or lack thereof, by the Iranian authorities of the unfortunate events surrounding the storming of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.

It occurred to me that this is exactly what the Saudis would want.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,143
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:14am Jan 5, 2016 3:14am
Quoting Exodus
This morning on 'the radio' there was brief discussion about the situation between Iran and Saudi et al. The scenario was described as a perfect storm for Iran which has accrued negative world sentiment at a time when the previous sanctions and embargoes are being lifted. The cause was the handling, or lack thereof, by the Iranian authorities of the unfortunate events surrounding the storming of the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. It occurred to me that this is exactly what the Saudis would want.
It is exactly what they want I read an article last night (sorry cant find it) questioning if the states will fall into the "trap" Saudi has set like Iran has. Also Kuwait has joined the party http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35231382
  • #2,144
  • Jan 8, 2016 2:49am Jan 8, 2016 2:49am
How low are prices going...?

>>
LONDON (Reuters) - When U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs said last year that oil could fall as low as $20 per barrel, it assigned a fairly low probability to that scenario.

Fast-forward five months and in some parts of the world the forecast has already proved correct. Canadian physical crude has been selling this week at below $20 per barrel, less than it costs to extract and transport. Traders in the options market, meanwhile, are taking protection against prices falling below $25.
>>
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,145
  • Jan 9, 2016 5:53pm Jan 9, 2016 5:53pm
no one is realizing another reason why oil traders keep hitting mass sell buttons.

guys and gals, its real simple. The glut is the best "domestic policy" occurrence since john f kennedy became president.
Think about it........terrorism is funded by oil sales by Iran. Lower oil prices means less $ towards funding terrorism..........

The only thing keeping oil low is weakening economic fundamentals globally. The glut is here to stay as frackers are still pumping and pumping despite sub 30 market prices (not future contract prices in case some of you think future prices are what oil companies sell their oil at.)

20-25$ oil is coming in 2-3 months ladies and gents. mark your calendar in 3 months that gasoline will be another 20% cheaper and auto sales will continue to rise due to low gas prices.

Auto companies are benefiting greatly from lower overhead energy costs & people's demand for autos as gas prices fall greatly.
  • #2,146
  • Jan 10, 2016 5:14am Jan 10, 2016 5:14am
Quoting yeniful
no one is realizing another reason why oil traders keep hitting mass sell buttons. guys and gals, its real simple. The glut is the best "domestic policy" occurrence since john f kennedy became president. Think about it........terrorism is funded by oil sales by Iran. Lower oil prices means less $ towards funding terrorism.......... The only thing keeping oil low is weakening economic fundamentals globally. The glut is here to stay as frackers are still pumping and pumping despite sub 30 market prices (not future contract prices in case some of you...
Low oil prices are because someone does not want Gulf Countries along with Russia to make good money off oil.The weaker your enemy is the less you have to worry about. At least this is perhaps what some in Israel are thinking. Low oil prices come consequences though as you can see with markets tanking.
  • #2,147
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:22am Jan 11, 2016 1:22am
@ yeniful and sylinex

but dont the Gulf countries actually control the oil price since they make up the largest group of oil producers world wide? So theoretically they could jack up the price by just reducing oil production. Or create some pipeline-terror-scenario or destroy one of their own ports or production facilities in an "accident".

And low oil prices dont benefit the Gulf states either. Saudis revieled a record deficit of some 90bn EURO with a "B".
  • #2,148
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:32am Jan 11, 2016 1:32am
Quoting kweiss10
@ yeniful and sylinex but dont the Gulf countries actually control the oil price since they make up the largest group of oil producers world wide? So theoretically they could jack up the price by just reducing oil production. Or create some pipeline-terror-scenario or destroy one of their own ports or production facilities in an "accident". And low oil prices dont benefit the Gulf states either. Saudis revieled a record deficit of some 90bn EURO with a "B".
The problem is that, as you mentioned, these countries are running deficits and they need to keep the cash flowing, and the only way to do that is to keep the oil flowing. As to your theories of how easy it would be for them to raise the price of oil, none of them want to be the one to reduce their oil production in any shape or form. They are also fighting a battle against other oil producers(USA and RUSSIA) for example to try to break their production capability by bankrupting the producers with cheap oil.

GREEN pips to you my friend.
  • #2,149
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:38am Jan 11, 2016 1:38am
Quoting SmoothTrader
{quote} The problem is that, as you mentioned, these countries are running deficits and they need to keep the cash flowing, and the only way to do that is to keep the oil flowing. As to your theories of how easy it would be for them to raise the price of oil, none of them want to be the one to reduce their oil production in any shape or form. They are also fighting a battle against other oil producers(USA and RUSSIA) for example to try to break their production capability by bankrupting the producers with cheap oil. GREEN pips to you my friend.
hmmm sounds like a spiral to disaster similar to what deflation causes. the cheaper the prices of goods get, the more the producers will produce to make more income which lead to more products flooding the markets which leads to even lower prices. somewhere down the line something has to give.
  • #2,150
  • Jan 11, 2016 2:04am Jan 11, 2016 2:04am
Quoting kweiss10
@ yeniful and sylinex but dont the Gulf countries actually control the oil price since they make up the largest group of oil producers world wide? So theoretically they could jack up the price by just reducing oil production. Or create some pipeline-terror-scenario or destroy one of their own ports or production facilities in an "accident". And low oil prices dont benefit the Gulf states either. Saudis revieled a record deficit of some 90bn EURO with a "B".
Saudi Arabia had a promise before with America to keep flows of oil stable and ample regardless of oil prices during good times and bad times and they have done this and keep their promise. Oil prices are listed in new York under commodities and traded with the USD. Why on earth would the Saudis sell for less if they could sell for more??
A very powerful invisible hand controls these prices out of New York.
  • #2,151
  • Jan 11, 2016 3:54am Jan 11, 2016 3:54am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} hmmm sounds like a spiral to disaster similar to what deflation causes. the cheaper the prices of goods get, the more the producers will produce to make more income which lead to more products flooding the markets which leads to even lower prices. somewhere down the line something has to give.
We are starting to see some of the more leveraged oil producers getting into trouble.

Eventually the usual culprits will shut them down.
It must be close because the asset values of some companies are now more or less equal to their debts.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,152
  • Jan 11, 2016 7:51am Jan 11, 2016 7:51am
Morgan Stanley was close to accurate on the YEN when the YEN was over 124 and they had called 115 for the YEN where Goldman Sachs called for 135-140.
Now they are calling for low $20 oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline
  • #2,153
  • Jan 11, 2016 7:58am Jan 11, 2016 7:58am
Quoting stylinex
Morgan Stanley was close to accurate on the YEN when the YEN was over 124 and they had called 115 for the YEN where Goldman Sachs called for 135-140. Now they are calling for low $20 oil http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline
Not all the investment banks have the same competencies as different analysts cover different areas. Just because MS was right about Yen doesnt mean that they will be right about oil. It is different departments anyway. I read what MS wrote about Oil and while I respect it I am not so sure about it. Look for example what Socgen wrote today about their predictions on oil and Russia. They are projecting $60 oil by the end of 2016. Link http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/socie...ve-russia.html

Whose right?
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,154
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:30am Jan 11, 2016 9:30am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Not all the investment banks have the same competencies as different analysts cover different areas. Just because MS was right about Yen doesnt mean that they will be right about oil. It is different departments anyway. I read what MS wrote about Oil and while I respect it I am not so sure about it. Look for example what Socgen wrote today about their predictions on oil and Russia. They are projecting $60 oil by the end of 2016. Link http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/10/socie...ve-russia.html Whose right?
MS are right.

GS is either quoting a barrel full of monkeys, or they are running the market.
Either way I no longer trust the GS viewpoint.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,155
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:43am Jan 11, 2016 9:43am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} MS are right. GS is either quoting a barrel full of monkeys, or they are running the market. Either way I no longer trust the GS viewpoint.
I never said GS is right. I actually provided a third point of view. GS has been many times famously wrong like the predictions just before the dotcom crash from GS chief strategy Aby Cohen about new highs in the market. But SocGen is a solid player and I cannot discard their view.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,156
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:17am Jan 11, 2016 10:17am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I never said GS is right. I actually provided a third point of view. GS has been many times famously wrong like the predictions just before the dotcom crash from GS chief strategy Aby Cohen about new highs in the market. But SocGen is a solid player and I cannot discard their view.
GS is all about BSing you then pretend to be innocent. They are not, they are evil.
  • #2,157
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:18am Jan 11, 2016 10:18am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} GS is all about BSing you then pretend to be innocent. They are not, they are evil.
totally agree.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #2,158
  • Jan 14, 2016 12:57pm Jan 14, 2016 12:57pm
Any good reasons not to put 3000$ on account and go long with 1 lot? Price wount go to zero right?

Arne
  • #2,159
  • Jan 15, 2016 1:56am Jan 15, 2016 1:56am
Quoting artmat
Any good reasons not to put 3000$ on account and go long with 1 lot? Price wount go to zero right? Arne
It depends upon a few things.....
What is your target ?
How long are you prepared to wait ?
Does that $3000 give enough cover for price moving in the non-preferred direction ?

It seems reasonable expect that price will go to $45 but that might not be until the year 2017
In the meantime price could go to $10
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,160
  • Jan 15, 2016 2:49am Jan 15, 2016 2:49am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} It depends upon a few things..... What is your target ? How long are you prepared to wait ? Does that $3000 give enough cover for price moving in the non-preferred direction ? It seems reasonable expect that price will go to $45 but that might not be until the year 2017 In the meantime price could go to $10
Target is around 60$, but its the wait that is the most unsure. i doubt that price will go much under 30$. The lower it goes the worse it gets, even for low cost oil producing counties and OPEC. i Believe price will rise a litte and stabilize.

What is the swap on oil?
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