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Prez Forex (pres78) Trading Journal

  • #321
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:57am Jan 8, 2016 9:57am
I just wanted to thank everyone who are participating at my journal. It's not often that others tend to spend much time posting and hanging out in the journals section. Usually the trading systems or trading discussions threads get all the love. It makes me happy to see others learning and using VZA in their trading. It's nice to have others along for the ride as trading can be a lonely life and well let's face it even I can only talk to myself for so long.

I do my best to respond when asked questions and to make sure others feel engaged here. Sometimes with work and trading I may miss a post or two or it may take a while to respond but I will do my best to help others along the best I can.

Thanks Again!
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #322
  • Jan 8, 2016 10:01am Jan 8, 2016 10:01am
EURUSD 15 min pres78 2BR into today's new zone high. Did anyone go long at either the H of this new zone or at the previous NFP one as I did? Hope I wasn't alone.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #323
  • Jan 8, 2016 10:09am Jan 8, 2016 10:09am
Quoting pres78
EURUSD 15 min pres78 2BR into today's new zone high. Did anyone go long at either the H of this new zone or at the previous NFP one as I did? Hope I wasn't alone.
I went long on EUR futures. 1st contract out at 1:1. Trailing 2nd contract now.
  • #324
  • Jan 8, 2016 11:10am Jan 8, 2016 11:10am
Quoting pres78
EURUSD 15 min pres78 2BR into today's new zone high. Did anyone go long at either the H of this new zone or at the previous NFP one as I did? Hope I wasn't alone.
​This one never took off and we are now back inside today's zone. I closed my longs that I took from the NFP high. Now in a short scalp off a 5 min ND into the zone H from below looking for a return to the 50%.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #325
  • Jan 8, 2016 11:59am Jan 8, 2016 11:59am
​Edit - closed below now to see of the L is taken out.


EURUSD, looks like we might be getting a 15 min ND into the zone H now. 50 seconds till bar close. If it closes below the H then we could see a short set-up.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #326
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:27pm Jan 8, 2016 1:27pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​This one never took off and we are now back inside today's zone. I closed my longs that I took from the NFP high. Now in a short scalp off a 5 min ND into the zone H from below looking for a return to the 50%.
​Hit 1:1 stalled and headed back to the high and then broke above. Closed out early for a loss on part 2, part 1 was closed at 1:1. Done for the week.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #327
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:31pm Jan 8, 2016 5:31pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} A return to the NFP high (specifically <= 1.0870) then a move long would be a lovely PNF entry for me.
It didn't unfold how I was thinking but price hit that NFP high nicely. I took a 15min long position before the dip to the NFP high. Highlighted below;

Red line is the high of the NFP zone, green area is the triple top buy position that I entered. Gave it a nice healthy stop and i'll see how it goes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 08-01-2016_EU15min.png Size: 62 KB
  • #328
  • Edited 4:45pm Jan 9, 2016 1:48pm | Edited 4:45pm
Quoting VSAgav
Pres, a couple questions if I may; What markets do you follow (assume you limit the amount)? Would you rather follow fewer and get inside that market or do you just set alerts for a lot of them and take the best setups as you see them? Does your broker spread play a part in that decision? I see in earlier posts it appears your trades on ND's and NS's are limit orders as opposed to manually entering on a confirmation. Is that the case or do you wait for the next bar to close above/below? The reason I ask is that it has always appeared like a bad...
‎OK I've got a couple hours to kill waiting for my daughter so I'll try and address these questions now. I follow pairs with ADR's of greater than 100 and average spreads of less than 5 during active trading. That said obviously I prefer pairs with good ADR and sub 1 spreads but there aren't many that fit that list. Spread is a big factor as it affects my cost of doing business but ADR is equally important as I don't want to waste my time on pairs that drag ass all day.

I trade ND and NS with limits yes. I don't need confirmation as a trader. Some do. I don't. If I get a ND or NS at the right place I set a limit. I want to brought into the market as the ND or NS is being confirmed not after. That waiting can have huge impacts on your R:R. Losing that anywhere from 2-15 pips (depending on entry TF) on your entry may save you from some fake outs but the worse entry on the good trades is a far worse trade off for me but as always this needs to be evaluated by the trader to suit them and their comfort level. Some need confirmation before investing. I simply do not. Now when it comes to my favorite entry the pres78 2BR I enter at market upon the opening of the bar after the pattern completed.

I hope that answers your questions. If you'd like a detailed list of what I trade I could provide but the above reply covers how I selected them.

At the end of the da‎y your trading plan needs to reflect you as a person and trader. This covers all aspects from what you trade, how many items you trade (I know several traders who trade and specialize in only one pair), when you trade, allowable risk (various components and a deep subject), how and where you ever the market, how and where you exit the market (both if you right or if your wrong) etc... the entries part is where you'd cover confirmation if required and whether you enter pending or at market etc...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #329
  • Jan 11, 2016 4:32am Jan 11, 2016 4:32am
Hi Pres,
Your trading method caught my interest, thankyou for sharing, I dabbled with volume profile analysis in 2014, which had similarities.
I have read through your journal, but just wanted to clarify a few things and ask if a few questions, if thats ok:

You project a zone around the highest volume H1 bar from the previous day, and if price at LO is above the zone, we only look for buy opportunities, vice versa for sells. Q - What do you do if price is inside the zone at LO, does this invalidate trading or do you look for a break of the zone and wait for a retrace back to it for setups ?

When we have a bias at LO, you then look for price to retrace back to the zone and check lower time frames, M15, M5 and M1, for signs of a bounce into the directions of the bias, is this correct?
Signs of a bounce can be in the form of a no supply / no demand setup, where you place a pending order at the break of the high / low.
Or a pres 2BR, is this an engulfing pattern ?, when you place a market order.

Q - How many candles do you wait for a no supply / no demand bar to trigger? Do they become invalid if price breaks the opposite end of the candle?
Q - For a given TF, if price breaks out of the opposite side of the zone against our bias, with either a wick or a bar closing above / below the zone, does that invalidate trading?
Q - When do you stop looking for trades, is it a couple of hours before London close?
Hope I haven't asked too much, and best of luck with your trading!
Dave
  • #330
  • Jan 11, 2016 5:51am Jan 11, 2016 5:51am
Quoting pres78
{quote} ‎OK I've got a couple hours to kill .......
Thanks Pres for taking the time to answer my questions. Much appreciated!
Volume at Volume
  • #331
  • Jan 11, 2016 7:26am Jan 11, 2016 7:26am
Any tips on why did I get run and why the zone failed?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOilM15.png Size: 89 KB


I'm in this aswell, I wonder if this will fail too...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPM15.png Size: 82 KB
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #332
  • Edited 8:42am Jan 11, 2016 7:58am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting Darastonius
Any tips on why did I get run and why the zone failed? {image} I'm in this as well, I wonder if this will fail too... {image}
​Chart 1, your ND bars are closing above the zone L. The signal bar MUST close at or below (or above) the level your trading. I personally prefer for the signal bar to touch the level and then close below or above it. Once you get bars closing back inside the zone you need to either way to see if 50% gives up and entry or for a close back outside the zone and a re-test of the level.

Chart 2, right now EURGBP is testing 50%. We've broken the H already so if buyers shown support this might be a good place to go long. We did see some support at the high but it didn't take off from there. Right now PA is showing LL, LH structure so not great PA for longs at the moment. Actually my overall PA - volume read on 1hr down to 5 min currently shows as weak, 4hr and Daily still shows the EURO in control so seeing a bit of mized signals right now (when looking intraday versus swing - but intraday for me right now is all weak).

From my experience some of the best 50% trades come after the zone H or L was taken out and we then get a nice strong move (used to hide their buying or selling) right through the H or L with support kicking in at the 50%. When we hit the H or L, bounce around with only minor signs of buying or selling the 50% tends to fail more often or only offers a bounce back to the H or L with a continuation of the move to take out the zone.

Remember zones don't always hold (they do get taken out but are many times replaced with a new zone in the process) and not all trades will run and some just don't work at all.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #333
  • Jan 11, 2016 8:23am Jan 11, 2016 8:23am
Quoting 236dave
Hi Pres, Your trading method caught my interest, thankyou for sharing, I dabbled with volume profile analysis in 2014, which had similarities. I have read through your journal, but just wanted to clarify a few things and ask if a few questions, if thats ok: You project a zone around the highest volume H1 bar from the previous day, and if price at LO is above the zone, we only look for buy opportunities, vice versa for sells. Q - What do you do if price is inside the zone at LO, does this invalidate trading or do you look for a break of the zone...

  1. That is the basics yes, however I consider the 50% level as the hinge point (only buys above and only sells below unless I am scalping the zone itself).
  2. If price is inside the zone at LO I see if the 50% is being tested as part of the LO move into the zone. So we would be in a wait mode for either a set-up at 50% (if the PA is right) or a break back above the H or below the L. As I have stated for newbies to VZA start with trading the edges (longs from the H and shorts from the L) before getting into trades from 50% and especially before trying to trade within a zone.
  3. Correct if I am looking for longs come LO I will trade off NS or test or 2BR entries. That said I prefer to see signs of buying before I take a trade off a signal that shows lack of supply. Lack of supply alone is not enough to make a market go up, we need the buyers (or sellers if you reverse all of what I said above).
  4. A pres78 2BR is simply this. A down bar into a zone level, followed my an upbar which closes back above the zone level. To be a pres78 2BR the up bar MUST;

  1. Make a LL than the down bar
  2. Be on lower volume than the down bar
  3. Close at or near the H of the up bar
  4. Close at or above 50% of the down bar (extra points if we close above the open also)
  5. Reverse rules for a sellers set-up

I do also trade other types of 2BR's but the above one is my favorite. I call it a pres78 2BR in my trade plan as I have never seen a 2 bar pattern with this very specific set of rules so I needed to call it something.

 

  1. If a bar closes below 50% of yesterday's zone my bias switches to possible looking for shorts, though this could be invalidated if the break was fake and we get a 2BR pattern closing back above. If we close and stay below 50% then I'm looking for a break of the L and a possible entry at either the L or the 50%.
  2. I prefer to take entries at or within the first couple of hours for the two market opens (LO and NYO). Unless I am scalping a zone I will not look to add any major new positions after London closes.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #334
  • Jan 11, 2016 8:52am Jan 11, 2016 8:52am
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​Chart 1, your ND bars are closing above the zone L. The signal bar MUST close at or below (or above) the level your trading. I personally prefer for the signal bar to touch the level and then close below or above it. Once you get bars closing back inside the zone you need to either way to see if 50% gives up and entry or for a close back outside the zone and a re-test of the level. Chart 2, right now EURGBP is testing 50%. We've broken the H already so if buyers shown support this might be a good place to go long. We did see some...
​Still 10 mins to the close but it appears the 50% level may be just what the EURGBP bulls needed. Increased volume down bar into the H at LO (closed below into the zone), increased volume down bar into the 50% at NYO (closed above the level). Second hour of NY session we are seeing the result of those combined efforts. Currently last two hourly bars are forming a 2BR into that zone 50%.

Personally nothing I liked so far as a set-up at the mid on any TF. Now we are looking to close back above the zone H, will we get a confirmed break and re-test entry? Loads of room up and we appear to have found buyers support now so...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #335
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:01am Jan 11, 2016 9:01am
Nice Pres 2BR off the 50 Fib on EU
  • #336
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:07am Jan 11, 2016 9:07am
Right, EG seems to set up properly now. I went back to Oil after the upthrust, so that is taken care of. I'll pass EG now, it was a bit aggressive entry, even though it is obvious that it is still strong, because if came down without any distribution. Now I see I tried to catch the reversal too fast.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #337
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:08am Jan 11, 2016 9:08am
Quoting Rinehart
Nice Pres 2BR off the 50 Fib on EU
​Support came in there for sure (similar to EURGBP & EURCAD, EURAUD also at 50% but didn't close back above the zone H like the other 3 pairs did) and a buyers 2BR on a few TF's but I don't see any that meet the pres78 2BR rules (for me anyway none have a lower volume up bar).

Today has been a neat example of many pairs reacting to their Friday zones at the same point in time. Testing the H at LO, mid at NYO. Amazing how they all came back to their zones at the same time despite each having varying ADR's, zone locations etc... Shows how when we can find pairs and days like this we could find multiple trades at the same time (depending on what our trade plan allows of course).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #338
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:18am Jan 11, 2016 9:18am
Quoting Darastonius
Right, EG seems to set up properly now. I went back to Oil after the upthrust, so that is taken care of. I'll pass EG now, it was a bit aggressive entry, even though it is obvious that it is still strong, because if came down without any distribution. Now I see I tried to catch the reversal too fast.
​Sometimes patience can be our single greatest weapon. Me personally I got up at LO but saw nothing I liked after that first hour closed inside the zone (weakly) on several pairs across the board. I conceded that I'd need to wait to see what the 50% did or for a decent break and re-test of the H. We now at NYO finally seen some action.

Don't get me wrong EURGBP actually printed a decent looking NS into the zone H but it just never took off.

One thing I'd add for you is that you really need to wait for your MA to roll over and for PA to be above it. For you that might mean trading more of today's zones for that to be the case but we must trade with what we have on our charts. I took the MA's off my charts because so often yesterday's zone gives it's entry below the MA as it's been done on a SO, or a fake mark down or mark up to hide their moves which quickly pulls price out of trend before coming back into trend.

Nothing better than hiding your buying below the 20MA that many traders use as the MA traders are now looking to sell as we are below their trend indicator.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #339
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:30am Jan 11, 2016 9:30am
EURCAD, EURGBP both printed 15 min pres78 2BR into the zone H. EURUSD not so much... back inside the zone working towards 50% again. Both pairs that printed the 2BR's need EURUSD to support their moves if higher prices are in order.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #340
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:46am Jan 11, 2016 9:46am
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​Support came in there for sure (similar to EURGBP & EURCAD, EURAUD also at 50% but didn't close back above the zone H like the other 3 pairs did) and a buyers 2BR on a few TF's but I don't see any that meet the pres78 2BR rules (for me anyway none have a lower volume up bar). Today has been a neat example of many pairs reacting to their Friday zones at the same point in time. Testing the H at LO, mid at NYO. Amazing how they all came back to their zones at the same time despite each having varying ADR's, zone locations etc... Shows...
​Now you can see why I prefer my pres78 2BR's, when that second bar is on increased volume I find sometimes the patterns fail... look at the 3 pairs I noted... all printed what looked like great 2BR's into the 50% level and even closed back above the zone high... if that second bar was on lower volume I would have taken longs on all 3 pairs at market. With that increase in volume on bar 2 I just feel uneasy as they can often be an immediate reversal as we have seen here. I never trade high volume 2BR's at market. I enter on pending's with a break of the H or L.

Look at those same 3 charts 45 minutes later. EURUSD now forming new 2BR up into the H and may close below the 50%. The other two are looking to close back within the zone. As I said the other 2 need EURUSD, thus I avoided trading the 15 min 2BR's into the zone high as EURUSD was not agreeing.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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