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I'm quiting trading but can someone elighten me on this?

  • #41
  • Jan 8, 2016 11:34pm Jan 8, 2016 11:34pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote}negative futures brokers don't determine the spread which in reality is non you can go long at the price . there is non of that crap in the futures market plus you don't have to just trade currency. forex has no exchange so no real volume can be measured if you think you can thoroughly succeed with forex brokers then you are dreaming and the money is not secure if the go belly up theres enough risk in trading why add more to your plate.
brokers that have been in business 15 years don't go belly up. and that is why 50:1 leverage is offered... so you don't need to keep very much capital in your account to trade at your full buying power

spot brokers don't just change their prices around because their client base is profitable... the price exactly tracks that of future prices and the banks data feeds.. they have no vested interest in you winning or losing a trade. they make their money from the spread, just like futures brokers do.

did you really just say that futures don't have spreads? of course they do.

spot Forex brokers match their traders trades with other clients of brokers around the world....

futures forex brokers match their trades with other futures clients on the exchange...

the spot market is MUCH bigger than the futures market


so many conspiracies about retail forex... i don't get where they come from. i guess people create this fantasy land of conspiracies to justify why they can't predict which direction price will go...
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #44
  • Jan 9, 2016 2:17am Jan 9, 2016 2:17am
Quoting hanover
Some very plausible reasons in the replies already. Another possible contributing reason is triangular equilibrium. NFP is going to affect all USD based pairs, including both GBPUSD and NZDUSD. Now since GBPNZD price must always equal GBPUSD / NZDUSD, then GBPNZD will be affected by any (imbalanced) movement in GBPUSD and NZDUSD. Today's NFP was particularly tricky in that the employment component was significantly higher than expected (292k v 203k), but the hourly earnings -- which is also watched carefully by the FOMC, in terms of their...
on fo si noissucsid siht ni​


Hannover, My interruption in this conversation is to say the least improper and unmannered, please forgive me. I have been trying to find out how I can pm you via this forum, but I think my age is holding me back from learning all these modern gadgets. (80 years young) My question has no real value for others, but I know that you can give me a genuine reply. I know some about trading, but precious little to nothing about coding. If you find the time I would greatly appreciate it if you could pm me and I can reply - that way I'll get to put my problem. Thank you, and please forgive the rude intrusion all who are in this thread.
  • #45
  • Edited 3:07am Jan 9, 2016 2:48am | Edited 3:07am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd.jpg Size: 75 KB


first point.
Gbp/nzd has a huge difference in yield between the two. Gbp rates are at .5% and nzd are at 3%. So in risk off, as we had today.. traders are exiting high yeild risky currency for the safety of a low yield currency... Stocks down = gbp/nzd flys higher.
Gbp/nzd can have massive moves associated with risk on/off.

second point. (see chart)
On daily we fell though a very thin area and hit some liquidity, also a major break out point in the past.
So daily bias should have been long on dips, as we bounce from this huge previous break out area.

third point.
NFP day has a very high risk of major volatility! It pretty huge day in fx world. If your new you might want to skip this day, or use demo account.
Controlling your risk may mean sitting out NFP days and rate decisions.

Gbp/nzd is very wild and not for the beginner trader. master a less volatile pair first..
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #46
  • Jan 9, 2016 3:11am Jan 9, 2016 3:11am
Quoting Copernicus
Hi Crimson I sense the frustration in your post but have a think about how an altered mindset might possibly remove that sense of frustration. There are two broad ways you can approach these markets and each takes a different mindset approach. 1) Process oriented mindset; or 2) Outcome oriented mindset. The two different mindsets are at significant odds with each other and determine the stance you take in how you deal with profits and losses. When asking questions such as 'what happened this morning with GBP/NZD', this clearly infers an outcome...
Process vs. Outcome

I prefer to focus on process, rather than outcome based goals. Process refers to the habits we adopt on a daily basis while outcome obviously measures results. The challenge with focusing entirely on Outcome based goals is that we can’t always control Outcomes, but we can generally control our Process.

So Right and so obvious that it makes me wonder why people don't have this clarity of mind, focus on the process and keep refining it and the Money will follow as a natural result of good implementation of your mechanical systems and strategies .
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #47
  • Jan 9, 2016 3:31am Jan 9, 2016 3:31am
No offense to me or others but only post that hits the core in an extensive manner is Copernicus' post - so there's your answer Crimson. You need to get away from that mindset as to where you think market(s) will go in a given time frame, and if you can analyze your thought processes and determine whether you desire them to go in a particular direction or just allow for "shades" of probability - that's a huge difference and only second allows for consistency. First one (desire) will lead to oblivion...
I suggest you start learning and digesting, and make it your personal goal not to trade (live) while doing so. You're not a bad trader - it just takes time to master yourself. (There is no such a thing as a bad trader in my opinion - only lazy trader, stubborn trader, reckless trader). Setting an absence in live trading as a personal goal sounds ironic, but it is extremely hard. But it helped me for example, and I suspect every single trader who is consistent for a long(er) period HAD to go through this muck and mud...some get there faster (within few years), and some take 5+ years. But it is like any other endeavor in life - you need to put with and eat s..t for years until you get it right - the only difference when doing trading of the financial markets - you need to put up with your own s..t.

Apologies for the ugly words.
  • #48
  • Jan 9, 2016 3:44am Jan 9, 2016 3:44am
Quoting Crimson
What the F!@K happened this morning? Im trading the GBP/NZD and there is no major news that should affect this pair but guess what, it did and even the non farm payroll for USD also somehow managed to cause some volatility on this pair. my broker even widened the spread to over 200 pips for 10 mins. I have attached a screenshot of GBP/NZD on 1H timeframe....as far as im concened, this pair was ranging and breakout was going to happen at some point but this huge boost for GBP or weakness for NZD despite no economic news is suspicious. i had checked...
If you train YOURSELF, you can spot these changes with deadly accuracy and never be caught out. I am not here to teach you nor am I interested but simply to let you know, the market has precise order.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #49
  • Jan 9, 2016 3:48am Jan 9, 2016 3:48am
Sorry to hear you are quitting trading OP.

Lots of good TA advice has already been given, but I personally would say that it has missed the mark a bit. A trader can still fail when trading a good method with the wrong mindset. No amount of technical knowledge can overcome poor psychology.

Quoting Copernicus
Hi Crimson I sense the frustration in your post but have a think about how an altered mindset might possibly remove that sense of frustration.
Just wanted to say - Brilliant post Copernicus.

Most people having issues with trading fail to realise the problem lies in the way we think.

I could write a thesis about Mark Douglas' work and how it has helped me become consistently profitable. But I won't bore everyone! Let me just say I still trade the same method, but with a different mindset, and a far more profitable outcome.

Speaking more to Copernicus' point about process. Check out Colonel Boyd's work on what he called the OODA loop. It provided me with a framework / process to approach the market with. As a blueprint for thinking in terms of process rather than outcome - I don't think there is any better.

Combine a process based mindset with Mark Douglas' teachings and you have a true recipe for success - imho.

Fin.
Drink Coffee. Do stupid things faster, with more energy.
  • #50
  • Jan 9, 2016 4:03am Jan 9, 2016 4:03am
Quoting damnpenguins
Sorry to hear you are quitting trading OP. Lots of good TA advice has already been given, but I personally would say that it has missed the mark a bit. A trader can still fail when trading a good method with the wrong mindset. No amount of technical knowledge can overcome poor psychology. {quote} Just wanted to say - Brilliant post Copernicus. Most people having issues with trading fail to realise the problem lies in the way we think. I could write a thesis about Mark Douglas' work and how it has helped me become consistently profitable. But I won't...
If I ever decide to go into academic waters (will master business economy) in, hopefully, 2 years - if I get the opportunity to teach students about trading or TA or similar - I will want a special subject called "psychology of trading" and the main literature for it would be "Trading in Zone" by M. Douglas - it is, and will forever be, the holy bible of trading the financial markets...
Too bad new traders don't dedicate any time into reading that masterpiece...
  • #51
  • Jan 9, 2016 7:24am Jan 9, 2016 7:24am
its in UPtrend. it will even go to 2.2317 I believe
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd.uptrend.PNG Size: 57 KB
  • #52
  • Jan 9, 2016 7:28am Jan 9, 2016 7:28am
If you make a trade, short or Long - your Chance of winning is 50:50.

Even if you think your winning chances are higher - it's still 50:50. It's always 50:50, no matter what the current situation is.

Now if you think that on every trade a spread and a commission is applied, it is highly unlikely you win money on the long run
Forex is a losers game.
  • #53
  • Jan 9, 2016 9:01am Jan 9, 2016 9:01am
Quoting seahorse
{quote} Good TA. D - But can rise more 200 pips. {image}
I usually have my SL around halfway between the 61.8 fib and 100 so on GN that would be massive. It could go up another 200 pips; it's the ugly part of my trading I have to live with unfortunately, unless I can figure out better, or you can enlighten me .
  • #54
  • Jan 9, 2016 9:47am Jan 9, 2016 9:47am
Quoting trader121
If you make a trade, short or Long - your Chance of winning is 50:50. Even if you think your winning chances are higher - it's still 50:50. It's always 50:50, no matter what the current situation is. Now if you think that on every trade a spread and a commission is applied, it is highly unlikely you win money on the long run
That is the exact mindset a trader needs to move off in order to become consistently profitable - meaning each trade is alike, with similar stop loss sizes (in pips), similar profits (in pips) - and even if it is 50-50 - P/L ratio, if positive, will allow for profitable trading over any period as long as traders don't change something in their strategy. But I suspect it sure isn't 50-50 because I know retail traders (btw I know them personally, no ff or any other "public forum" mumbo jumbo) who are profitable over 10 years and of course, are trading full time.
Why would you first say it's 50-50, then confirm "it's always 50-50", then complete with "it's highly unlikely you win on the long run"? Why didn't you complete with "It's impossible to win on the long run"?
If you look at 2 candles alone in the chart and choose an entry - yes it's 50-50, but if you look at a large picture, shades of probability - which are assessed with technical analysis (or any other non-emotional analysis) then it's not 50-50. And even if you look at two candles alone in a an uptrend on my example lower - it's not 50-50.
And when that pattern happens on a double top, it's 70+...with a crazy good P/L ratio
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #55
  • Jan 9, 2016 10:52am Jan 9, 2016 10:52am
Quoting jen101
{quote} I usually have my SL around halfway between the 61.8 fib and 100 so on GN that would be massive. It could go up another 200 pips; it's the ugly part of my trading I have to live with unfortunately, unless I can figure out better, or you can enlighten me .
I do not trade GN or large timeframes, but the concept is the same the difference is the size of the sl/tp and duration of trade.
The concept HH HL / LH LL

And in GN H4 time frame the price is up.
  • #56
  • Jan 9, 2016 11:17am Jan 9, 2016 11:17am
Quoting seahorse
{quote} I do not trade GN or large timeframes, but the concept is the same the difference is the size of the sl/tp and duration of trade. The concept HH HL / LH LL And in GN H4 time frame the price is up.

I don't usually trade off H4 either, I use daily and weekly mostly. I only showed H4 as it was easier to see the fibs. I disagree, daily looks like a turning point to me; anyhow we shall see . And I don't take too much notice of candlestick patterns other than pin bars off s/r and inside bars. More importantly to me are confluence points; they are far stronger than what a candle looks like.
  • #57
  • Jan 9, 2016 12:02pm Jan 9, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting damnpenguins
Lots of good TA advice has already been given, but I personally would say that it has missed the mark a bit.
The OP asked why GBPNZD was affected by USD-based news.
  • #58
  • Jan 9, 2016 12:17pm Jan 9, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} I don't usually trade off H4 either, I use daily and weekly mostly. I only showed H4 as it was easier to see the fibs. I disagree, daily looks like a turning point to me; anyhow we shall see . And I don't take too much notice of candlestick patterns other than pin bars off s/r and inside bars. More importantly to me are confluence points; they are far stronger than what a candle looks like.
Im more intraday.
And yes D can be a turning point.

Neither do I.
I prefer price come to me.

I wish green pips for you.
  • #59
  • Jan 9, 2016 12:33pm Jan 9, 2016 12:33pm
Hi Crimson, GBP/NZD is highly trending and volatile so anything can happen.

Regarding news since banks buy the rumour and sell the news the opposite reaction can easily happen.

I'm in this trade to catch the trend which started on the daily Jan 4 with a bullish engulfing candle. It paused the last few days at the middle bollinger band (there would have been a ton of sell orders there since overall it is in a downtrend) and now has moved up towards next resistance at 2.2370 and then the top band at 2.2570ish.
Overall the weekly tells me we are in a small pullback of a larger downtrend.

Rather than quit I think you need to switch to a longer timeframe so you can ignore the noise.

Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDdaily.png Size: 51 KB
Enter Signature
  • #60
  • Jan 9, 2016 12:34pm Jan 9, 2016 12:34pm
OP talking about why the pair moved without any news, like someone said before, it's simply supply and demand. If some huge fund came in and thought that GBP or NZD was undervalued / overvalued, they might act on that. Could be for any reason.
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