Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 338 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,741
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:27am Jan 7, 2016 9:27am
please explain me Mr Alfonso. Mn down trend and CP supply remove demand on the left but me still loss
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  • #6,742
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:16pm Jan 7, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting baolong610
please explain me Mr Alfonso. Mn down trend and CP supply remove demand on the left but me still loss {image}
AFAICS, your trend lines are wrong according to the rules comrade.
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Trade what you see..
  • #6,743
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:44pm Jan 7, 2016 9:44pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} AFAICS, your trend lines are wrong according to the rules comrade. {image}
thanks very much Chawl. I see
  • #6,744
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:09am Jan 8, 2016 12:09am
Quoting baolong610
please explain me Mr Alfonso. Mn down trend and CP supply remove demand on the left but me still loss {image}
There were 3 CPs of supply on H4, aggressive trendline broken, H4 supply negated by the rules.

Cheers
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,745
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:10am Jan 8, 2016 12:10am
Quoting Chawl
{quote} AFAICS, your trend lines are wrong according to the rules comrade. {image}
Yes exactly like that my friend, H4 trendline was aggressive because there were 3 CPs, so the H4 short was negated,

Thanks for helping others.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,746
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:12am Jan 8, 2016 12:12am
Quoting sympathy
GJ MN is down, MN supply level in control but low in the curve. Too much base in the NM damand leve looks like a 3months nexted with MN demand. W1 is also down with brand new supply that removes a W1 demand level. We are low in the weekly curve. Price is now reacting to a W1 demand nexted within a MN demand level. D1 is in down trend low in the curve. Am waiting for a confirmation to go long. We also have a D1 supply level nested within a W1 supply level. Am also planning a short trade at that level but with a confirmation type of trade because...
Your GBPJPY supply and demand analysis is correct my friend, short bias
Just a couple of things. Monthly demand zone you drew is not demand since it didn't take out any opposing supply. Weekly demand zone you drew is incorrect, you didn't cover the lower lows of the zone for the distal line.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,747
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:14am Jan 8, 2016 12:14am
Quoting sympathy
UCHF MN is consolidating to the upside W1 is in an uptrend with the W1 demand in control. the W1 demand was the one that took out the all time highs. Bais is UP. D1 is re-aligning with the weekly uptrend. D1 demand level broke the daily descending trendline and that was the entry guys. Its all following the rules and nothing more. In 4hr chart i was planinig to take an additional trade on a 4hr demand level nested within a non valid D1 demand level, i needed a confirmation bcos of the D1 potential demand level. {image} {image} {image}
I don't trade USDCHF myself but long bias definitely on this one! You drew a Daily demand that is not valid, it hasn't accomplished anything and it's a very wide candle.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,748
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:16am Jan 8, 2016 12:16am
Quoting sympathy
ECAD MN is in uptrend reacting to an overshort supply level but still holding because there is no close above. W1 is up high in the curve I took an entry in D1 chart demand level tested on departure. The D1 is sitting on a weekly flipzone that gave me a higher odds. If the MN supply level is takingout, Longs might hapen else we wait for confirmation on our entry time frame for short. {image} {image}
Ascending daily trendline had been broke on EURCAD before you took the Daily long, invalid trade unless you wait for confirmation.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,749
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:18am Jan 8, 2016 12:18am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} Which software is this?
It's Forex Tester 2, a software that allows you to test currency pairs, also stocks and indexes (anything you have data for). It's a must to learn any rules set.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,750
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:20am Jan 8, 2016 12:20am
Quoting BigFisherman
Hi Alfonso, hope it's alright for me to post my Forex Tester's trade here for opinions. If you think it's inappropriate, please let me know & I'll remove it. It's a typical trade that didn't work out but I "believe" I'm trading correctly by the rules taught here, so next trade. However if there's any obvious mistake made, please let me know. First picture shows my entry & 2nd image is the result (Loss). H4 is UP, Daily is out of alignment, Weekly is UP. Weekly almost hit Monthly Supply (a monthly CP). H4 & Daily forms a Wow Short after breaking...
Incorrect H4 short my friend, why? Look at the level you drew? Base is very very bad and it created no imbalance, it didn't remove any opposing demand, no strong ERCs away from the imbalance either and WK still in an uptrend, counter-trend. Supply and demand imbalances need to have a correct base structure and departure to validate them, else you have to negate them.

Hope that helps!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,751
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:54am Jan 8, 2016 12:54am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Incorrect H4 short my friend, why? Look at the level you drew? Base is very very bad and it created no imbalance, it didn't remove any opposing demand, no strong ERCs away from the imbalance either and WK still in an uptrend, counter-trend. Supply and demand imbalances need to have a correct base structure and departure to validate them, else you have to negate them. Hope that helps! Alfonso
Thanks Alfonso for your time. But I'm still little confused. With reference to my Daily chart, I can see the weakness in price moving away from the supply 1 (no ERCs), but isn't demand 2 removed from the drop a good enough indication that there's more willing sellers than buyers (from a HTF perspective)? Yes, it's a counter trend trade that I'm rarely taking unless it's a Wow trade that was supported by a HTF level.


P.S.: Alfonso, I've tried signing up set and forget.com membership twice few hours ago but I have not received any email as claimed from the site and I can't login or proceed further. Have you received my application?
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  • #6,752
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:17am Jan 8, 2016 1:17am
Quoting BigFisherman
{quote} Thanks Alfonso for your time. But I'm still little confused. With reference to my Daily chart, I can see the weakness in price moving away from the supply 1 (no ERCs), but isn't demand 2 removed from the drop a good enough indication that there's more willing sellers than buyers (from a HTF perspective)? Yes, it's a counter trend trade that I'm rarely taking unless it's a Wow trade that was supported by a HTF level. P.S.: Alfonso, I've tried signing up set and forget.com membership twice few hours ago but I have not received any email as...
You can see weakness in price, and? So what? Current bigger picture trend is up, taking counter-trend trades is higher risk. Also a new imbalance needs to be tradable, good base, nice departure, etc. That h4 supply you took has none of that my friend.

Regarding membership, I see you tried to sign up but your membership has not been completed. The set and forget community is a paid service, so if payment is not completed you won't be able to log in the private community.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,753
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:43am Jan 8, 2016 1:43am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Ascending daily trendline had been broke on EURCAD before you took the Daily long, invalid trade unless you wait for confirmation. Cheers, Alfonso
Thanks Alfonso for your reply. Am trying to push the rules to my brains so that i can easily apply them when needed thanks BOSS
  • #6,754
  • Jan 8, 2016 2:05am Jan 8, 2016 2:05am
CADJ MN DOWN..connecting two valid peaks and one demand level taking out.
W1 printed a supply level that removes a cp demand level at the left side. bias is short.
D1 is down but low in the weekly curve, W1 demand in control. There is a D1 supply level nested within the weekly supply zone, am planning to take a short trade at that supply level. Bias is short.
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  • #6,755
  • Jan 8, 2016 2:56am Jan 8, 2016 2:56am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Regarding membership, I see you tried to sign up but your membership has not been completed. The set and forget community is a paid service, so if payment is not completed you won't be able to log in the private community. Cheers, Alfonso
Hi Alfonso, thanks for the feedback. However, I did not receive the confirmation email after signing up the registration to be a paid member, thus no instructions on how to go about paying either. I've checked my inbox & spam, nothing till now after 5 hours. May I know how can I proceed to be registered?

Regards.
  • #6,756
  • Jan 8, 2016 3:06am Jan 8, 2016 3:06am
Quoting BigFisherman
{quote} Hi Alfonso, thanks for the feedback. However, I did not receive the confirmation email after signing up the registration to be a paid member, thus no instructions on how to go about paying either. I've checked my inbox & spam, nothing till now after 5 hours. May I know how can I proceed to be registered? Regards.

Hi Alfonso, I've tried to login set & forget.com again and I can get in now, I can see the payment instructions there & will proceed accordingly.

Regards.
  • #6,757
  • Jan 8, 2016 3:32am Jan 8, 2016 3:32am
hi mr alfonso, please if u can confirm me these questions n thanks in advance.. m using supply n demand in my trades, there are wins n there r loses. still a lot to learn n to b memorized.
1. does fundamental news effect supply n demand trades? i know it shouldn't b traded during that time but pls explain n make me clear...and what should i do about it? dont bother with it or i still have to b aware of the news effect on the currency?
2. if there is a valid zone but the price did not return to it, will it still b valid after a period of time? will the orders still there? say like few weeks or months. will it still work?

there r still lots of questions but i really appreciate ur time, thanks
regards
aekawas
  • #6,758
  • Jan 8, 2016 10:12pm Jan 8, 2016 10:12pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} One thing about your Weekly chart my friend... Wk is down, descending trendline linking 2 peaks. Previous ascending WK TL was up but broken. Cheers, Alfonso {image}

Hi all, while reading through the thread, I came across an old post# 4495 from Jul 14 2014; it's a post by Alfonso replying to alegargano's post, image attached.

Can anyone tell me if Supply 2 is valid? Not only because it's less than 2:1 move away, it didn't take out any opposing demand to be a valid supply. Supply 1 also didn't take out any opposing demand but since Alfonso didn't mention it being invalid, I supposed that's because Supply 1 has more than 3:1 space to the opposing demand, which validates it as a level automatically?

Can anyone clear my doubts? Thanks!
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  • #6,759
  • Jan 9, 2016 12:45am Jan 9, 2016 12:45am
Quoting panoramia
A follow up on yesterday's commentary on the US Index A bearish D1 Pin candle Doji happened at WK supply proximal like, it looks like the US Index wants to drop a bit. Previous green potential D1 demand is not valid because it did not take out any supply, so we could have some short on the US Index, longs on the EURUSD based on confirmation Too high in the WK curve and confluence with the descending WK TL, some shorts could could happen on the US Index Price could rally higher into the D1 supply nested within the WK supply {image}

Hi Alfonso, can I clarify the following old post with you? I'm trying to read through the entire thread hoping to learn as much as possible.
It's post# 4308 dated 16 May 2014. I can't understand why you said the shaded green Demand zone being invalid due to it not removing any supply; isn't previous supply labeled 1 & 2 removed by it?

Thanks.
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  • #6,760
  • Jan 9, 2016 2:15am Jan 9, 2016 2:15am
Quoting BigFisherman
{quote} Hi Alfonso, I've tried to login set & forget.com again and I can get in now, I can see the payment instructions there & will proceed accordingly. Regards.
You could log in the registration platfot but you didn't finalize the payment process on PayPal so you can't log in the community. I have deleted all your user details in case you want try again and finalize the process, else contact me in private at [email protected]ers,Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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