Let's Trade Options | Page 586 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #11,701
  • Jan 5, 2016 5:40pm Jan 5, 2016 5:40pm
/ES down 10+ early, I see.....I need a vol spike like rat now to salvage anything decent on remaining Jan long vol spreads....theta will start pushing the b/e's away from me pretty fast now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,702
  • Jan 5, 2016 9:15pm Jan 5, 2016 9:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} good luck, not my meat, options too thin and spreads suck.....that might be one to set up a synthetic long stock trade on, though - get in and catch a $100+ spike like you know it can do at earnings......only problem might be if you can not get out if it goes against you....too scary.
Yeah may be out of my leauge for now.... It just looks so tempting though especially if we get another big drop. Anyways down a bit on my AAPL spread i put on yesterday bought in a little early and stock took another tumble probably not going to be be looking good again today but we'll see. My BBY short put is sitting a hair above BE. I closed out of my DIA bear vertical put spread yesterday for a bit of profit.
  • #11,703
  • Jan 5, 2016 9:18pm Jan 5, 2016 9:18pm
Do you ever make trades based on implied volatility?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,704
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:39am Jan 6, 2016 12:39am
/ES down near 25 early London .... perhaps I will get a shot at redemption on long vol spreads.....these trades were set up to catch a vol spike post Dec FOMC and here we are. The premise was not all that but with a little help from China, the middle east, etc, maybe just maybe: I need ^VIX to pop above 26; I need UVXY to stretch out and touch the mid $40's, Need that this week.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-06_0038uvxy.png Size: 78 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,705
  • Jan 6, 2016 9:08am Jan 6, 2016 9:08am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Passed on a MON earnings play...
The stock is on my "nothing to do there" list... I spent many hours just gathering data how hundreds of stocks behaved on ER's in the past... I basically divided them all in 3 categories -> stays in estimated move, wild ones, and good for nothing (for various reasons, like no liquidity, bad strikes, no vol, no move and so on)... I will look for it. Some of the stocks now have improved options, compared to 2014. I can't remember now any particular example, though.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,706
  • Jan 6, 2016 9:13am Jan 6, 2016 9:13am
/CL is down 4.5%...

/CL daily chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL-daily.PNG Size: 132 KB


Weekly chart looks like total crap.

Looking for some play there, but not sure for now... Thinking about selling some naked puts (cos I am loco, ese)... like maybe March 28.
March contract is now $35.64 and March 28 put is $0.31 ($310, since multiplier is 1,000)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,707
  • Jan 6, 2016 9:42am Jan 6, 2016 9:42am
Quoting The Fool
I need a vol spike like rat now to salvage anything decent on remaining Jan long vol spreads....theta will start pushing the b/e's away from me pretty fast now....
no not quite, always just a hair away from glory....some of the bflys were cheap, like 10c, so I don't mind holding a bit....another was 31c so given my contracting timeframe I am tempted to get out with even a small loss.....be just my luck to bail at b/e and then see vol explode into next week. Bflys have huge payouts for a perfect finish but that is way out there at UVXY 50 +/- and VIX 28 for Jan expiry.

Books look a little sick & I don't have any short premium trades on & that's what I needs.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,708
  • Jan 6, 2016 11:35am Jan 6, 2016 11:35am
Quoting The Fool
no not quite, always just a hair away from glory.....
just need to run together 2 or more heavy selloff days to get some life out of the ^VIX, very hard to do in the btfd hft fubar markets
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,709
  • Jan 6, 2016 11:38am Jan 6, 2016 11:38am
Quoting StrayDog
/CL is down 4.5%...
new low for the century?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,710
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:51pm Jan 6, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting The Fool
just need to run together 2 or more heavy selloff days to get some life out of the ^VIX, very hard to do in the btfd hft fubar markets
/ES down 60 for the week, ^VIX down 2, sure .....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,711
  • Jan 6, 2016 11:30pm Jan 6, 2016 11:30pm
the USO combo uses a DD and a long call vert to create a wide profit zone with a near $0 debit......after Feb expiry it turns into the wide strangle shown with 5 months to work
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-06_2325uso1.png Size: 92 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-06_2326uso2.png Size: 92 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,712
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:01am Jan 7, 2016 5:01am
Quoting The Fool
/ES down 60 for the week, ^VIX down 2, sure .....
when China devalued the yuan in late August, ^VIX spiked from 14 to 53+ in 4 days: ....now, similar bs and the China markets go into meltdown mode.....and ^VIX has trouble popping at all? WTF? what a total crock o shit.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-07_0453VIX.png Size: 133 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,713
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:02am Jan 7, 2016 5:02am
What do you think the difference is this time?
  • #11,714
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:25am Jan 7, 2016 5:25am
Quoting Pharm0r
What do you think the difference is this time?
idk......low liquidity in August and the suddenness (surprise) of the PBOC move then?.....but honestly, I am very perturbed.....if I were a monkey, I would do this to the CBOE...


Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,715
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:54am Jan 7, 2016 5:54am
SPY will open near $195.....btfd most likely not if but when.....when? always the $64,000 question. Check the iv's in the weekly calls - you can sell an otm call vert w/ 2 dte for decent money
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-07_0549spy.png Size: 151 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,716
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:03am Jan 7, 2016 6:03am
like dis...just beware a big bounce off Friday's NFP....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-01-07_0600spy2.png Size: 11 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,717
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:49am Jan 7, 2016 6:49am
Quoting The Fool
Check the iv's in the weekly calls - you can sell an otm call vert w/ 2 dte for decent money
gone with the wind
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,718
  • Jan 7, 2016 8:29am Jan 7, 2016 8:29am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} gone with the wind
Nice one. Still waiting for my options buying power to become useable in my account today is the 3rd day since moving money over
  • #11,719
  • Jan 7, 2016 11:37am Jan 7, 2016 11:37am
I only do simple call or put options but i had a question i hope someone on here might be able to answer. I made a search online for it yet when you type the word "call, strike, market and option" in a google serach it pulls up everything...

Here is my question...

I notice traders open "call" positions with a lower strike price then what is currently trading. For example, stock ABC is currently trading at $5 but offering calls at a strike price of $2 and traders open these trades. This is observing the "time&sales." What is the profit theory behind this?

Thanks.
I love forex. One day it will love me back.
  • #11,720
  • Edited 1:08pm Jan 7, 2016 12:55pm | Edited 1:08pm
that's a good question Singha & I will get to it later.

Meanwhile, I am out of all long vol VIX-related spreads, mostly for <2x returns, although one bfly set on the CBOE VIX netted almost 3x. I would have been doing great if I had filled some longer dated spreads, tried several times in the last week or so & never got what I wanted, and now as everything was coming down to next week's expiry, I was feeling up against the wall & now glad to be out. Considering ways to catch the reversion, may wait to see how NFP day plays out.........sitting on lotsa dry powder
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
5 traders viewing now