Hoagtrading.com - Official Blog - Analysis & Forecast Service

Blog Title: EURGBP ELLIOTTWAVE TECHINCAL ANALYSIS: DOWNSIDE IS AROUND CORNER.

Talking Points:

1. EURGBP Technical Strategy: Turning Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: We expecting flat correction should be over now.

EURGBP's price is trading on very interesting level. As per our last analysis and trade update, we were expecting this move and was talking about to consider or not to consider failure fifth wave of wave (c). As per our previous post, we were discussing partial short entry @ 7400 area and another half position will be after confirmation.

Can we consider this move is confirmation?
Well, our answer will be no. Because, current move can be straight to 7500 area too. Confirmation will be considered if, we have daily close below 7400 area and break of 7232. Target for this pair will be well below of 6900 area.

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Blog Title: EURUSD Elliottwave Technical Analysis and Forecast: Holding Short Term Bullish View

Talking Points:

1. EURUSD Technical Strategy: Bullish
2. Elliottwave Count: Impulse Down Trend insight but short term bullish trend forming.

We are bullish on EURUSD and trying to build positions to go long. Current chart suggest we have expanded flat correction and current price action is completing it's wave c of ii or wave B in complex correction. However in both cases, we can look for bullish movement in this pair and expecting to see 1.12 area before any downtrend kickoff.

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Educational Post: How To Trade with Elliottwave

This post is purely educational and need to help traders on "How To trade Elliottwave Chart". As many of our client asked me such question time to time, we thought of writing a small article on it. Please note that, below charts are live charts on time to time and published in our "Trade Signal" section where we help to publish our thought on pair and trade execution plan. Request you to not to take as a direct trade recommendation as count and trade plan changed on session bases and need to change trade parameter depend on the market price action.

Step 1: Short list pairs based on Fundamental Background
Pair which has confident and have most suitable fundamental background. As we are shortlist them and putting them "On Radar". For example; below pair AUDUSD, where after FED raise interest rate in US, we are bullish on USD basket. Also, same time RBA is looking for possible rate cut in Australia, which is bearish on AUD basket. So this pair is most suitable fundamental background.

Step 2: Look for monthly and weekly Trend
As we are start looking for weekly trends and counting elliottwave label on weekly and monthly chart. We will get a fair idea of possible price action. DONT TRADE BASED ON THIS LABELS. As those labels and outlook will require two-three weeks or months to get target price and also stoploss will be huge which won't give your a good risk:reward ratio.

Step 3: Start decoding charts on daily and 240min chart.
As we got a fair idea on Fundamental and weekly and monthly trends, we are start decoding elliottwave count to see possible entry on daily/240min chart. As we are trading on short term (trade results will be coming in few days), we are stopping on 240min chart. We normally look for Flat Correction / ZigZag correction for entering into trade and should have minimum risk:reward ratio of 1:3.

Step 4: Start Drawing lines and channel on chart
As we put labels on charts, we are waiting to confirm our analogy by market itself. To do so, we are putting some lines on charts and putting horizontal support and resistance on charts to see possible price reaction from those levels.

Step 5: Until this point, we are putting our pair "On Radar", Look for confirmation
Now, as we have possible trade plan and levels to watch, we now look for confirm our moves by Mr. Market. To do so, we are start looking for breakouts. If we are trading wave C after wave B complete, we look for wave B's tradeline breakout. So stoploss will be on wave B terminus point and target will be 100% of wave A in case of ZigZag correction and if it's flat correction then, target will be top of wave A.

See Below Live Example:
- 11st Jan 2016
We looked for bearish move after had triangle breakout also move confirmed after we had yellow bullish channel breakout. We identified 7014, 7069 and 7120 area where correction can extend before resume it's down trend



- 13th Jan, 2016
We went into 60min chart to see what happening into short term time frame. As chart's price action is correcting it's daily trend, we are look for channel support here and can expecting zigzag correction over on 7050 area, but that analogy was not confirmed by market, we are expecting down trend started, but still not entered into the trade and look for more confirmation.



- 14th Jan, 2016
We entered into 30min chart after few days, and finally entered into the trade on 61.8% fibbo zone as correction was zigzag confirmed. Entry was on 6990 with stoploss as high as 7025 (Standard stoploss can be 7040).



- 15th Jan, 2016
As we confirmed the trade after channel breakout drawn on 13th Jan, 2016, we moved our stoploss to breakeven and earning more than 150pips by risking only 35pips (which was now no risk). Target was identified for more than 400pips and identified levels in "Trade Section" area.

EURUSD Elliottwave Technical Analysis for 19th Jan 2016 : Short term bullish

Talking Points:

1. EURUSD Technical Strategy: Temporary Bullish
2. Elliottwave Count: Wave c is in progress

Analysis
As per current price, we still prefer to be in bullish bias and counting current move as a nested impulse wave as part of wave c. Current price is testing hourly bullish trendline along with 100 and 200 hourly SMA. Current price action is very quite after we tested broken bearish trendline last week.

Action
We were long from last week with clearly defined stoploss and our strategy not to move stoploss until we will find clear breakout above 1.0930. Target zone is wide and starting from 1.01050 to 1.1200. Depending on the future price action, we possible defined our exit strategy. To see how we trade, subscribe us on "Trade Signal" section or try us on 14days Free Trial.

Talking Points:

1. AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Current move is consolidation and be part of wave y

This pair can play either of below scenario:

Scenario 1: In scenario 1, pair need to push one more high towards 1.0875 before continue it's down trend and can be complete it's wave c of wave y. This level also a 61.8 fibbo retracement level from previous down trend.

Scenario 2: With this scenario, we are looking to mark correction complete, because most of the criteria is accomplished to mark correction complete. So we prefer to be on scenario 2, but still not avoiding scenario 1 to get better risk:reward ratio, we want to be on sideline before initiate any trade.

To see how we trade, subscribe us on "Trade Signal" section or try us on risk free trial of 14days or follow us on @hoagtrading

Title: AUDNZD Elliottwave Technical Analysis: Looking for re-enter short on higher price

Talking Points:

1. AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Current move is consolidation and be part of wave y

This pair is playing scenario 2 from our previous analysis. Considering this face, we will watching price action. Price can trade higher 1.088 to 1.09 before reversal hinted. We also should note that, 1.08860 is 61.8% fibbo zone and current upward price action is not a implusive in nature. Considering all indicators and wave count, we will be waiting to see reaction on 1.088 area. To see how we trade, subscribe us on "Trade Signal" section or try us on risk free trial of 14days

Hello Trader,

Today's blog is just to give insight of how we trade inside member area. We posted a blog for Gold for which we booked 60% of profit @ 1125 and now stoploss moved to 1122 and waiting to see 1140 area as second target.

Please free to reach us on [email protected] on any queries or concern. To experience same results, please join us with 14days free trial.

1. 2nd Feb, 2016 20:29
   Gold is moving in channel. We already closed 60% @ 1125 and left 40% for our next target 1140. So let's move stoploss to bit higher level @ 1122.
   
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
2. 28th Jan, 2016 23:40
   
   Moving stoploss to 1105 level. If channel breakout happen, we can see more downside.
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
   
3. 28th Jan, 2016 01:27
   
   Hit our intermediate target @ 1125. Keeping another one for next target.
   
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
4. 26th Jan, 2016 20:10
   
   Nice price action. Pair is trading in bullish channel. If our entry level @ 1093 won't sustain then, we will have more downside. So let's move stoploss to breakeven to protect us. This can be possibly winner for Jan month.
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
5. 25th Jan, 2016 20:42
   
   Good to go here.
   We are moving as expected. There are following levels need to be checked in near future.
   
   1) 1105 is daily pivot, so we need to see daily close above it.
   2) 1125 is monthly pivot and psychological level.
   3) 1140-1145 are the level most interested to see, this are the levels where we have missed monthly pivot and trendline resistance.
   
   No change in stoploss and targets.
   
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
6. 22nd Jan, 2016 22:57
   
   It's slow moving market, possibly due to consolidation. Current price is still good and suggest us to be in trade. We already lower down a risk, a new risk is 1086. Also we identified targets. so keeping this trade for next week
   
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
7. 21st Jan, 2016 23:23
   
   moving stoploss to 1086.
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
   
   
8. 20th Jan, 2016 23:11
   
   Planned exit strategy as follow:
   1) Exit 60% @ 1125
   2) Exit full @ 1140.
   
   Once first objective met, move your stoploss to breakeven
   
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   
9. 20th Jan, 2016 13:09
   
   Entering long trade with 13$ risking. pair might extends it's correction above 1120.
   
   
   Attached Image (click to enlarge)

   
   

We are able to close all trade now with more than 380 pips

To know, complete history, http://hoagtrading.com/performances/...alculation/589

Talking Points:

1. AUDUSD Technical Strategy: Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Current move is suggesting new down trend and can be counted as impulsive bear count

We are fundamentally bearish on AUD pairs and this can be potential pair which can be traded easily. We are looking to re-enter our short position from last month and we got a chance to short this pair from 7185 levels. After triangle breakout from daily chart in new year, we are looking for retracement to enter our short position. Move from this year low 6838 to this month high can be counted as a corrective move and we labeled as a complex zig zag correction. Pair re-tested it's triangle resistance.

Action:
We already shorted pair from 7185 with stoploss @ 7240. We also added another position from 7065.

Please free to reach us on [email protected] on any queries or concern or tweet us on @hoagtrading. To experience same results, please join us with 14days free trial.

EURUSD Elliottwave Technical Analysis: Bearish Outlook

Talking Points:

1. EURUSD Technical Strategy: Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Either we seen wave c completion or Flat correction on weekly chart.

With EURUSD, we are expecting two scenario can be played here, which is as following:

Scenario 1: Either we are experiencing wave c as pair is still trading in corrective channel. This scenario more time to confirm. On channel breakout from current price, we can see possible scenario 2.

Scenario 2: We either in second scenario, if we are getting channel breakout. On this case, we are targeting 1.1478 price as part of flat correction on weekly chart. As this scenario is from larger time frame, it carry more time to complete and confirm.

But, in both cases, we are bearish on EURUSD and look for shorting opportunity rather buying. Please stay tune on "Trade Signal" section for more update.

Title: AUDNZD Elliottwave Technical Analysis: Re-entered short

Talking Points:

1. AUDNZD Technical Strategy: Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Primary count suggest wave 2 in minor cycle while on alternate count suggest it's triangle in wave X

We are tracking this pair from high 1.0950 and still suggesting it's down trend. From current price, there are two possible scenario which can be played in near future and both scenario are suggesting down trend. Below are charts and it's description of them

Primary Scenario:
With primary scenario, we are expecting current upward swing can be considered as a wave 2 in minor cycle and expecting down trend after we faced channel resistance yesterday. We ware looking to see complete it's incomplete wave Y. Wave Y can be composite of double zigzag or triple zigzag correction

Second Scenario:
With second scenario, we are predicting triangle formation on wave X / wave B, and with yesterday upward swing completed it's wave E which is last swing of triangle. From that point, we are looking for impulse down move which can be counted as wave C or wave Y. If it's wave C then, we should get down with five, seven, nine wave move. And if it's wave Y then we can see double zig zag or triple zig zag move in coming days.

Action:
With both above charts, we are recommending a short position rather than long position. We already shorted this pair on 1.0930 for which stoploss is moved to 1.0940. We also initiated a new position today with same stoploss. For target, we will give more time to market to decide our exit strategy.

To see how we trade, subscribe us on "Trade Signal" section or try us on risk free trial of 14day

Summary: AUDUSD Elliottwave Technical Analysis and Forecast on 1-March-2016: Down trend will resume

Talking Points:

1. AUDUSD Technical Strategy: Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Correction possible completed on 7250 high and reversal is in progress

Analysis:
We were expected correction over last month when price touched 7200 area, and shorted this pair. However, that was not correct and price climb again above 7200 area and ended with 7250. After hitting high of 7250, price retraced in last few days, and had a channel breakout. This hint us to consider reversal is in play. We had impulse down from 7250 and consider as wave 1. We are expecting flat correction from low 7120 to 7160 area before seeing another impulse leg down

Action:
With keep it mind long term fundamental weakness in AUD pair and technical bearish confirmation, we shorted this pair last night with stoploss @ 7250. We are targeting well below 6800 area.

Elliottwave count change depend on market move and we need to adjust new count and adjust our trade strategy. To keep upbeat with latest analysis and trade action, please subscribe us on plan. You also experience our service with 14 days free trial

Talking Points:

1. AUDUSD Technical Strategy: Temporary Bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Primary count suggest wave Y in medium cycle while on alternate count suggest trend changed and we are in third wave

We are tracking this count from a while and initiated short @ 7250 which was stopped out and closed manually @ 7300 levels. After had a bearish trendline breakout on weekly chart, we are looking to see higher levels. But in short term and near future, we are expecting pull back.

Region marked in a chart ranging from 7470-7490 is a potential zone from which retracement can happen. Breakout of 7500 and above level will have bullish count and suggest major recovery.

Talking Points:

1. DXY Technical Strategy: Short Term bearish, long term bullish
2. Elliottwave Count: We are confirming flat correction here.

Analysis:
Dollar index is working as expected after had a breakout of channel, we are looking for flat correction in dollar index and expecting to new low around 92.50 before we see dollar strength. Considering this analogy, we are bullish on dollar basket for short term and bearish on longer term.

Action:
Putting dollar pairs in our portfolio and start buying more after getting more confirmation.

Elliottwave count change depend on market move and we need to adjust new count and adjust our trade strategy. To keep upbeat with latest analysis and trade action, please subscribe us on plan. You also experience our service with 14 days free trial

Blog Title: GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Keeping bullish view

Talking Points:

1. GBPUSD Technical Strategy: Keeping Bearish view
2. Elliottwave Count: ZigZag Correction will be our primary choice in count

GBPUSD Start showing divergence on daily bearish trenline and 240min newly created bullish trendline. Current level 1.4650-1.4700 is 100% expansion of zigzag and also testing horizontal resistance.

Long term trend is down and don't see any reason to see bullish count but consider upward move from 1.3850 to 1.4750 is a pair of zigzag correction.

Blog Title: CADJPY Technical Analysis: Correction is over?

Talking Points:

1. CADJPY Technical Strategy: Turning bearish
2. Elliottwave Count: Larger impulse bearish count.

Analysis:
We were expecting correction over 88.50 area where we were tracking wave c termination point. We marked with yellow round. Same point was also treated a channel resistance. From 88.50, pair is able to break horizontal support and trading below middle line of bullish corrective channel.

We are expecting break of bullish trendline, confirmation of break will first point 82.50 area followed by 80.00 zone.

What to do:
We are started selling this pair and look for lower down the stoploss. All levels were published on "Trade Signals" section. We also suggested new levels who didn't join the train with limited risk.

Elliottwave count change depend on market move and we need to adjust new count and adjust our trade strategy. To keep upbeat with latest analysis and trade action, please subscribe us on plan. You also experience our service with 14 days free trial

Blog Title:DXY Technical Analysis: Confirm Bullish view

Talking Points:

1. DXY Technical Strategy: Bullish
2. Elliottwave Count: We are confirming flat correction here, and looking for impulse count

We keeping our primary analysis posted earlier month and considering correction over in dollar index. With that we are looking for gathering more evidence for bullish impulse count. First confirmation received after weekly close above flat correction channel. Followed by bearish triangle trend-line, which confirm that dollar indices is in bullish trend and will continue near future. Same was confirmed in EURUSD and other dollar basket currency pairs.


What to do:
We started buying dollar index and dollar basket pairs and will add more in retracements. We will already in short EURUSD, GBPUSD.

Elliottwave count change depend on market move and we need to adjust new count and adjust our trade strategy. To keep upbeat with latest analysis and trade action, please subscribe us on plan. You also experience our service with 14 days free trial

Would you mind posting a MyFxBook link to a verified live managed account?

Hello MasterGuru,

There is two things:

1) If you wanna to see how trade signal executed, you can take under performance page. Those are real signals which realtime update. Those update will be public only after trade closed.

2) If you wanna to see how my team managed "client account", I can provide you a link after client approval. Possibly one immediately and send you link for temporary.

Thanks

Thanks! I look forward to it.