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PVSRA (Price, Volume, S&R Analysis)

  • #3,601
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:16pm Jan 6, 2016 2:16pm
EURUSD FIFO Long Trade Open/Close:
Entered on good bullish momentum after the news, TP at recent highs.
9.5 pips average, 370.2 pips total gain.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiM5 FIFO 6.1..png Size: 61 KB
PVSRA
  • #3,602
  • Jan 6, 2016 3:37pm Jan 6, 2016 3:37pm
GBPJPY Short

This one is a bit tricky for me at the moment. As you can see price made new lows during LO breaking the RWL.. the part I'm having trouble deciphering is where this consolidation is actually taking place as it's smack dead in the middle of a half number. We are not clearly above or below... but the PA suggests this is bearish with signs of selling off after high volume occurs and below the RWL. This indicates support now turned resistance but it's a bit messy. I'm playing this one cautiously and if I don't see clear movement during Asian session I'm going to cut this one short.

Also noting that the last extreme high volume bar is a small spread candle which could indicate bears.

What do you guys think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 1-6-16.png Size: 74 KB
  • #3,603
  • Edited 5:36pm Jan 6, 2016 5:14pm | Edited 5:36pm
AU FIFO scalp M5 +13.5 (5 lots +2.7) waited for M5 to retrace up to and down from 0.70750 level and join M15's continued small downtrend with notable volume. Many small pips trades but my goal is +20 each day for my account as these little GREEN pips add up and as for today, +57.5 and explaining these small trades, as information that may help when observing same moves on your selected pair while observing PVSRA... .....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDiM5.png Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDiM15.png Size: 75 KB
Keep It Simple
  • #3,604
  • Jan 6, 2016 6:28pm Jan 6, 2016 6:28pm
Hello Gents

Surfing on google I come across to these thread:

http://www.donnaforex.com/index.php?board=107.0

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=540706

Which one is the correct one to follow tradeathome's work and PVSRA and it's most up to date?

Thanks
  • #3,605
  • Edited 9:03pm Jan 6, 2016 8:53pm | Edited 9:03pm
EU, M15 scalp +25 (5 lots +5) saw this chart way late and missed the correct entry near 1.07750 key level, but entered on break of 1.08000 after retrace to 1.07750 level with EUR vs USD strength.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiM15.png Size: 78 KB
Keep It Simple
  • #3,606
  • Jan 6, 2016 9:04pm Jan 6, 2016 9:04pm
Quoting cigarguy
EU, M15 scalp +25 (5 lots +5) saw this chart way late and missed the correct entry near (lower arrow) 1.07750 key level, but entered on break of 1.08000 after retrace to 1.07750 level with EUR vs USD strength. {image}
importantly +Green Pips
  • #3,607
  • Jan 6, 2016 9:07pm Jan 6, 2016 9:07pm
Quoting bolehbah69
{quote} importantly +Green Pips
For Sure.....GREEN pips are pips are pips, they all look nice in the bank.........
Keep It Simple
  • #3,608
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:08am Jan 7, 2016 1:08am
Quoting leentjai
I opened short GBPAUD {image}
I didn't take profit 25 pips....and closed by SL 50 pips
  • #3,609
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:24am Jan 7, 2016 1:24am
My opinion...will be nice trade...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-m5-LC70116y.png Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h1-70116y.png Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-m15-70115y.png Size: 93 KB
  • #3,610
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:12am Jan 7, 2016 2:12am
Quoting Dyekid217
GBPJPY Short This one is a bit tricky for me at the moment. As you can see price made new lows during LO breaking the RWL.. the part I'm having trouble deciphering is where this consolidation is actually taking place as it's smack dead in the middle of a half number. We are not clearly above or below... but the PA suggests this is bearish with signs of selling off after high volume occurs and below the RWL. This indicates support now turned resistance but it's a bit messy. I'm playing this one cautiously and if I don't see clear movement during...
My thoughts on a low TF .....anyway
Of course some period of time could be side trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 1-6-16.png Size: 106 KB
  • #3,611
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:53am Jan 7, 2016 2:53am
Quoting Dyekid217
GBPJPY Short This one is a bit tricky for me at the moment. As you can see price made new lows during LO breaking the RWL.. the part I'm having trouble deciphering is where this consolidation is actually taking place as it's smack dead in the middle of a half number. We are not clearly above or below... but the PA suggests this is bearish with signs of selling off after high volume occurs and below the RWL. This indicates support now turned resistance but it's a bit messy. I'm playing this one cautiously and if I don't see clear movement during...
You were right Dyekid !
  • #3,612
  • Edited 3:41am Jan 7, 2016 3:09am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting leentjai
{quote} You were right Dyekid !
I'm starting to recognize volume a bit differently after I saw some people drawing trendlines on their volume.. Which measures recent volume relative to previous. This increase/decrease in volume bars can signal MM intentions. Some losses that I've taken recently I've failed to notice the increase in volume relative to price and previous volume highs/lows.

Here's a chart on EU that I should have noticed much earlier. I will be studying this futher.

First we have a nice cluster of volume below a half number... then a huge green volume bar accompanied by a massive bullish pinbar. If this isn't a clear sign then I must be blind lol.

There's a story behind every bar which I think PVSRA does a great job of explaining.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 1-7-16.png Size: 64 KB
  • #3,613
  • Jan 7, 2016 4:10am Jan 7, 2016 4:10am
Quoting leentjai
My opinion...will be nice trade... {image} {image} {image}
Hi Leentjai, could you share the background candles indicator? Its amazing to count pushes! Thanks!
  • #3,614
  • Jan 7, 2016 8:39am Jan 7, 2016 8:39am
Ya know guys I'm starting to realize how important the M1 chart can be. Your average Joe will always recommend that small time frames are too noisy but with PVSRA how untrue a statement that is. If I had not been watching the M1 chart on my USDCAD trade I would have never been able to take advantage of the MM's intentions. Granted I should have closed my London position in profit at the previous highs but we can't all be perfect. When i saw price stagnating a bit I placed my SL to break even and waited NY session to open.

Indeed, after the open we got a huge volume spike and a nice bearish candle and where do you think? Above the half number. This is something I could not see on the 15M as clear as the 1M. This allowed me to get out of my position quickly at BE and reenter in the direction of the MM's. Sure enough we got an hourly bearish engulfing candle. and a nice retrace back down to the RWH.

+77 pips on the pair.. (i noticed my access panel settings were set to micro account instead of mini haha.. I thought i was raking in the pips!)

Slowly but surely the ART of PVSRA is taking it's hold on me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADM1 1-7-16 closed.png Size: 65 KB
  • #3,615
  • Jan 7, 2016 8:58am Jan 7, 2016 8:58am
Quoting Dyekid217
Ya know guys I'm starting to realize how important the M1 chart can be. Your average Joe will always recommend that small time frames are too noisy but with PVSRA how untrue a statement that is. If I had not been watching the M1 chart on my USDCAD trade I would have never been able to take advantage of the MM's intentions. Granted I should have closed my London position in profit at the previous highs but we can't all be perfect. When i saw price stagnating a bit I placed my SL to break even and waited NY session to open. Indeed, after the open...
That is exactly why during your analysis on the higher t/f charts it's prudent to drop down to M1 and see the ACTUAL candles and volume to confirm your trade for a good entry and then you can manage the trade from the higher t/f. As you stated, the higher t/f's will often mask the true MM's intentions only observed on the lower......... I personally, never enter any trade without consulting M1 for the previous reasons....
Keep It Simple
  • #3,616
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:06am Jan 7, 2016 9:06am
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} That is exactly why during your analysis on the higher t/f charts it's prudent to drop down to M1 and see the ACTUAL candles and volume to confirm your trade for a good entry and then you can manage the trade from the higher t/f. As you stated, the higher t/f's will often mask the true MM's intentions only observed on the lower.........
Cigarguy,

Looking at M1 analysis has actually helped me get a bigger picture on the HTF charts and why exactly the MM's want price to move a certain way. A double bottom on the HTF can be verified my dropping down to the lower time frame and doing an analysis.

PVSRA has now made it much easier to rely on my other knowledge of trading to come to the correct conclusion. It really ties everything I've learned so far together in a way I possibly couldn't imagine.

I'm now able to precisely pick my entry points and just trail my stop behind the previous 1H bar low
  • #3,617
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:10am Jan 7, 2016 9:10am
Quoting Dyekid217
{quote} Cigarguy, Looking at M1 analysis has actually helped me get a bigger picture on the HTF charts and why exactly the MM's want price to move a certain way. A double bottom on the HTF can be verified my dropping down to the lower time frame and doing an analysis. PVSRA has now made it much easier to rely on my other knowledge of trading to come to the correct conclusion.
Yes, you got it and when you see your trade on the higher t/f drop down to M1 to confirm and get a better entry then on the higher. Also, if you trade retraces, wait for M1 to retrace and then move back into and join the established trend.
Keep It Simple
  • #3,618
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:13am Jan 7, 2016 9:13am
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} Yes, you got it and when you see your trade on the higher t/f drop down to M1 to confirm and get a better entry then on the higher. Also, if you trade retraces, wait for M1 to retrace and then move back into and join the established trend.
I think this is where I'm kind of lacking as a trader and how PVSRA can better my positions. There's always a big possibility of dealing with drawdown when trading the higher timeframes and it's something I've struggled with in the past. Just over the past week I've seen huge improvements in how I enter trades thus reducing the amount of drawdown and emotion I face when a trade does not initially go my way.

I'm sure this fear/hope relationship burdens many traders.

Thanks again for your wise words!
  • #3,619
  • Edited 9:31am Jan 7, 2016 9:15am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting Dyekid217
{quote} I think this is where I'm kind of lacking as a trader and how PVSRA can better my positions. There's always a big possibility of dealing with drawdown when trading the higher timeframes and it's something I've struggled with in the past. Just over the past week I've seen huge improvements in how I enter trades thus reducing the amount of drawdown and emotion I face when a trade does not initially go my way. I'm sure this fear/hope relationship burdens many traders. Thanks again for your wise words!
IMO, don't concern yourself about money just focus on making the correct decisions and then the money will follow.....trading is about decisions not $$.... I hope it is clear what I mean!....of course we are trading to make money but some traders tend to set a money goal instead of focusing on analysis, ie., leading to good decisions.
Keep It Simple
  • #3,620
  • Jan 7, 2016 9:35am Jan 7, 2016 9:35am
Quoting cigarguy
{quote} IMO, don't concern yourself about money just focus on making the correct decisions and then the money will follow.....trading is about decisions not $$....
Yes it has always been my goal and I think successful PVSRA decision making should reduce a good amount of uncertainty when trying to manage my positions.
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