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  • #241
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:26am Jan 4, 2016 11:26am
Quoting pres78
EURAUD, short 5080, SL 5090. Target 1 5060 for 2:1. Target 2 is open and will trail SL if this trade does materialize into a runner.
Stopped out
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #242
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:32am Jan 4, 2016 11:32am
EURAUD pending short 5075, SL 5090. This pair IS going down, I just got in too soon. TP 1 still 5060 but now for 1:1. TP 2 open same as previous.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #243
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:34am Jan 4, 2016 11:34am
Happy New Year Pres,
Would you say its higher probability to take a nd/ns once price is outside the 1hr range as opposed to taking the equivalent entry off the 50%?
Gav
Volume at Volume
  • #244
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:43am Jan 4, 2016 11:43am
Quoting VSAgav
Happy New Year Pres, Would you say its higher probability to take a nd/ns once price is outside the 1hr range as opposed to taking the equivalent entry off the 50%? Gav
​Happy New Year to you too!

If you want to rank entries based on safety then yes a ND / test / 2BR into the low or a NS / test / 2BR into the high is certainly the safest. The reason is the H and or L can serve as a bounce point. Unless a zone is wide enough that I can get at least 1:1 trading from the 50% to the H or L then I won't trade it UNLESS the H or L has already been taken out (although I still prefer to be able to get 1:1 before the next level).

Basically once the H or L has been taken out I will ALWAYS trade a proper signal into the 50% and in turn will expect to see the H or L taken out yet again and ultimately for price to make a new H or L after doing so. Many times when this happens we will get two entries, one into the 50% and a second at the H or L.

As I have said before though for those just starting with the zones stick to trading the edges first... only take longs off the H and shorts from the L on the re-test after either the initial break or after the second break after having found support at the 50%.

Hope that makes sense.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #245
  • Edited 12:48pm Jan 4, 2016 11:46am | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting pres78
EURAUD pending short 5075, SL 5090. This pair IS going down, I just got in too soon. TP 1 still 5060 but now for 1:1. TP 2 open same as previous.
​Trade has triggered, in short at 5075.

​Edit - Chart Added
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDiM15.png Size: 40 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #246
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:50am Jan 4, 2016 11:50am
Makes perfect sense thanks!

So the EURAUD trade is, based on your description, a re-test of the 50% after having made a new low and broken the range Low? If thats correct understanding then you would be looking for potentially another entry once the Low has been broken again?
Volume at Volume
  • #247
  • Jan 4, 2016 11:58am Jan 4, 2016 11:58am
Quoting VSAgav
Makes perfect sense thanks! So the EURAUD trade is, based on your description, a re-test of the 50% after having made a new low and broken the range Low? If thats correct understanding then you would be looking for potentially another entry once the Low has been broken again?
​Correct, although the break was not great (nicer to see a bit of move away from the broken level) and as you can see the L is providing support again (thus my rule for needing to be able to get 1:1 before the next level when trading from the 50%)... I don't hold this rule firm after a break of the H or L but have considered making this change to my trade plan. I think I may need to tweak the rule that unless I get a grade A break of the H or L then the 1:1 rule applies to ALL 50% trades...

I'll have to look back at my trade logs to see if this is a worthwhile change.

Yes if we do get a second break followed by a re-test of the L I would consider adding on (though not a great time of day but then again AUD pairs will move nicely at times during Asia).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #248
  • Jan 4, 2016 12:03pm Jan 4, 2016 12:03pm
Thanks for the description. Super helpful.

Also I saw this earlier and it looked pretty text book (5min AUDCAD). I was in another trade at the time and Im not ready to manage multiple trades but it looked nice (in retrospect). The purple line highlights where the NS was right on top of the range high.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-01-04 at 17.58.21.png Size: 38 KB
Volume at Volume
  • #249
  • Edited 12:43pm Jan 4, 2016 12:14pm | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​Trade has triggered, in short at 5075.
​Got my 1:1 at 5060 on the first half. Will leave the second half fully exposed (worst case net BE at this point). Not as nice an entry as the first attempt (which I got stopped out on by 0.2 pips) with a bit wider SL but better timing.

We all take losses, part of doing business.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #250
  • Jan 4, 2016 12:26pm Jan 4, 2016 12:26pm
Quoting VSAgav
Thanks for the description. Super helpful. Also I saw this earlier and it looked pretty text book (5min AUDCAD). I was in another trade at the time and Im not ready to manage multiple trades but it looked nice (in retrospect). The purple line highlights where the NS was right on top of the range high. {image}
Not bad looking at all. Back above the zone high and above your now sloping upward MA (2 check marks based on your chart set-up). What I find the most interesting is that tiny range down bar on quite high volume right before the break out of the zone. For sure some hidden buyers in that bar. All that effort, no result down followed by result up. These are the little clues we need to be wary of.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #251
  • Jan 4, 2016 1:38pm Jan 4, 2016 1:38pm
We were eyeing EA with Rinehart aswell, I'd say euro in general will fall tomorrow, or the day after. Also check out GA, rolling over on no demand, GN, massive upthrust, Oil had a big UT too and can fall further, and gold had one aswell, though the range before is not so clear.

Quoting pres78
EURAUD, short 5080, SL 5090. Target 1 5060 for 2:1. Target 2 is open and will trail SL if this trade does materialize into a runner.
Am I noticing it correctly, that a lot of times you put your SL right above the ND/NS? I started to notice, that the ND/NS signals, especially on and above the 15M are quite accurately show, that there is no demand/no supply at a price range, and price can't climb back to there later. The boxes are the price levels, where there are no buyers left. I'm asking if this is the reasoning behind you putting the SL right above them?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDM15.png Size: 71 KB
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #252
  • Jan 4, 2016 2:10pm Jan 4, 2016 2:10pm
Quoting Darastonius
Am I noticing it correctly, that a lot of times you put your SL right above the ND/NS? I started to notice, that the ND/NS signals, especially on and above the 15M are quite accurately show, that there is no demand/no supply at a price range, and price can't climb back to there later. The boxes are the price levels, where there are no buyers left. I'm asking if this is the reasoning behind you putting the SL right above them?
No I don't place my SL's specifically based on ND or NS bars. That could well be the case in many cases however when I set my SL I consider these factors;

  1. I want my SL as close as safely possible. Reason, like anyone I want the best possible R:R on my trades. That said I also want to be smart about it so my trade has sufficient room to breath. Nothing worse than getting piped out just to watch the trade go your direction. This is where timing comes into play... when to get in affects SL placement and ultimately your R:R. Sometimes waiting a few more bars can make the difference.
  2. I try and determine the most logical place to put my SL based on where I think price is least likely to return to (as you noted where have we already seen a lack of demand (supply) or perhaps where have we seen orders already filled. If we see sellers come into the market and then no more demand when we come back to that location then unless the SM want to spend their $ to mark up an unsupported market to fill orders even higher up then the more logical scenario would be for lower prices and as such a SL above the previous supply pocket also makes sense.
  3. Levels... in my EURAUD trade not only did I consider the above but my SL is also above the 50% level of today's 1hr zone...

In addition to this setting my SL also involves a lot of feeling based on my read of the current and prior PA leading up to my entries.

I hope that helps clarify a bit. Unfortunately setting my SL is one thing that is not set in stone every time as it really is an on the fly, what is the market telling me, game time decision .

I know I got it really right when my drawdown in less than 50% of my initial risk (i.e. price moves less than 50% towards my SL). Doesn't always happen of course but it is something I like to be able to write in my trade journal. Sometimes though I've still gotten great R:R on trades that nearly stopped me out. That's when you hope you have a broker who's spreads don't fluctuate massively because that can make the difference between a stop out and a trade that stays alive. We can't blame that all on the brokers though... if we are constantly having SL's that are nearly hit we need to review our trade entries as we are either placing our SL's too aggressively, getting in too early (too high or too low) or a combination of both (as I've done on my EURAUD trades ​)...

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #253
  • Jan 4, 2016 2:22pm Jan 4, 2016 2:22pm
Thanks for the detailed answer. Now I'm playing safe by putting the SL a little above the last swingpoint, this had a great impact on the winrate, but a bad impact on the RR. Even with huge daily swings, IF I can play the whole thing, sometimes I can/could get around 4:1, but that would be very rare, usually it is less, 1:1 a lot of times. Winrate is great though, so can't complain. I can't let the greed to take over.
Price and volume reveals everything. The market moves on supply and demand.
  • #254
  • Jan 4, 2016 2:30pm Jan 4, 2016 2:30pm
Quoting Darastonius
Thanks for the detailed answer. Now I'm playing safe by putting the SL a little above the last swingpoint, this had a great impact on the winrate, but a bad impact on the RR. Even with huge daily swings, IF I can play the whole thing, sometimes I can/could get around 4:1, but that would be very rare, usually it is less, 1:1 a lot of times. Winrate is great though, so can't complain. I can't let the greed to take over.
Each trader needs to find what works for them with respect to placement of SL and the impact that has on things like win rate and R:R. With 1:1 we need a higher win rate to be at our best. Higher R:R we can live off lower win rate.

Me I have been working hard on how and where I place my SL so that I can maximise both factors. Nothing more rewarding than a high win rate and high R:R on a consistent basis. For me I never target 1:1 as my ultimate goal. 1:1 for me is only the place where I take half profits and then let the rest attempt to run.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #255
  • Jan 4, 2016 5:05pm Jan 4, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} ​Got my 1:1 at 5060 on the first half. Will leave the second half fully exposed (worst case net BE at this point). Not as nice an entry as the first attempt (which I got stopped out on by 0.2 pips) with a bit wider SL but better timing. We all take losses, part of doing business.
​Ended up closing part 2 for 1:1 also after a 3rd failed attempt to break and hold below the zone low. Check things out come LO.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #256
  • Jan 5, 2016 7:36am Jan 5, 2016 7:36am
EURAUD tested the low of yesterday's zone 2hrs before LO, currently testing the low of today's zone. See if we get any kind of an entry.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #257
  • Jan 5, 2016 8:31am Jan 5, 2016 8:31am
Hi Pres78

Thanks for sharing your trading style. I'm new to VSA, but willing to put in the time.
Any thoughts on my analysis?

Thank you in advance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #258
  • Jan 5, 2016 8:48am Jan 5, 2016 8:48am
Quoting Kelowkie
Hi Pres78 Thanks for sharing your trading style. I'm new to VSA, but willing to put in the time. Any thoughts on my analysis? Thank you in advance. {image} {image}
​Looks good to me and we saw a nice move close to 50 pips down after that ND. Nice thing is at that point we were also below the low of the LO first hour which was and still is today's controlling volume.

Really too when considering ADR that move capping at around 50 pips wasn't a big surprise as that pair had at that point moved 188 pips which is over the ADR.

Could've grabbed a nice return on that one.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #259
  • Jan 5, 2016 12:37pm Jan 5, 2016 12:37pm
Thanks bro for your input. Highly appreciate it.
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  • #260
  • Jan 5, 2016 12:55pm Jan 5, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting Kelowkie
Thanks bro for your input. Highly appreciate it. {image} {image}
Another great example. Only correction is your ND label should be NS on the second chart (just for anyone really new so as not to confuse). I appreciate you throwing up some charts for others to see and learn from. Playing the edges of the previous day zone as you've shown is very simple and can be very profitable (in case anyone was still doubting ​).
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
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