I have concluded my analysis for what the likely scenarios are for the coming week.
This coming week offers us a look at some Eurozone data, and some US data, and Bernanke speaking Friday.
The equity market has rallied hard up from its lows, the bond market rallied and retraced very little in a significant manner.
The gold market and oil markets have come under pressure and are doing technical damage to themselves for the time being.
USD last week seems to have killed a lot of people in its swings Friday. Meaningful support seems to be present in USD/JPY at 115.50, and it looks to be shooting to 116.66, in the near term.
EUR/USD seems to be correcting a little, GBP/USD the same, GBP/JPY the same.
I cease fire intrusion by Israeli forces has threatened it to some extant. North Korea seems to be looking for attention again. Iran is running wargames currently preparing for the Aug. 31 deadline at the UN.
Gold and Oil markets will trend down till the end of the month, and make another attempt higher with the start of september. It still gives 1.5 weeks of downside pressure in these markets.
The bond market, a lof of people have piled into it, the 10 year treasury;s at near term highs. The USD seems to be finding some support from private fund flows in the govt backed bonds. I fear Bernanke will have some fighting words on inflation this coming friday. This should pressure the bond market to some degree and give an excuse for profit taking.
Economic numbers still coming out weak throughout the globe. Walmart has reported some disappointing numbers for the first time. It sure gives an indication to what the trade imbalances will be like. China raised interest rates, I feel this is more then anything China talking up its market. There is a lot of manipulation attempted by large institutions and govts at work on the world scene. China is basically a big Walmart. So if Walmart is not doing well.. you can guess what China near term future will be like. I think this further supports the dollar.
Taking all this into account the risk is on the bear side of the USD still,
USD bull has some legs, with gold and oil falling, this gives even more support to the dollar.
As Iran deadline nears, GBP/JPY should head back up. From Asians trying to find shelter. The probability is now higher that future economic numbers throughout the globe will come in weaker then expected. So Eurozone numbers should come in weaker then expected. The risk is that EUR..GBP have been smacked already. So you might see a reversal on that day. When the German number comes out. With people exiting before Bernankes speech.
I will look at the timelines more closely and give wave action based on the weeks numbers and news events in a coming post.
Chris
This coming week offers us a look at some Eurozone data, and some US data, and Bernanke speaking Friday.
The equity market has rallied hard up from its lows, the bond market rallied and retraced very little in a significant manner.
The gold market and oil markets have come under pressure and are doing technical damage to themselves for the time being.
USD last week seems to have killed a lot of people in its swings Friday. Meaningful support seems to be present in USD/JPY at 115.50, and it looks to be shooting to 116.66, in the near term.
EUR/USD seems to be correcting a little, GBP/USD the same, GBP/JPY the same.
I cease fire intrusion by Israeli forces has threatened it to some extant. North Korea seems to be looking for attention again. Iran is running wargames currently preparing for the Aug. 31 deadline at the UN.
Gold and Oil markets will trend down till the end of the month, and make another attempt higher with the start of september. It still gives 1.5 weeks of downside pressure in these markets.
The bond market, a lof of people have piled into it, the 10 year treasury;s at near term highs. The USD seems to be finding some support from private fund flows in the govt backed bonds. I fear Bernanke will have some fighting words on inflation this coming friday. This should pressure the bond market to some degree and give an excuse for profit taking.
Economic numbers still coming out weak throughout the globe. Walmart has reported some disappointing numbers for the first time. It sure gives an indication to what the trade imbalances will be like. China raised interest rates, I feel this is more then anything China talking up its market. There is a lot of manipulation attempted by large institutions and govts at work on the world scene. China is basically a big Walmart. So if Walmart is not doing well.. you can guess what China near term future will be like. I think this further supports the dollar.
Taking all this into account the risk is on the bear side of the USD still,
USD bull has some legs, with gold and oil falling, this gives even more support to the dollar.
As Iran deadline nears, GBP/JPY should head back up. From Asians trying to find shelter. The probability is now higher that future economic numbers throughout the globe will come in weaker then expected. So Eurozone numbers should come in weaker then expected. The risk is that EUR..GBP have been smacked already. So you might see a reversal on that day. When the German number comes out. With people exiting before Bernankes speech.
I will look at the timelines more closely and give wave action based on the weeks numbers and news events in a coming post.
Chris
Price is the only indicator.
Oh boy,I am learning much in this forum and your work is highly aprecciated.