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Position Trading - F it, lets start a thread

  • #61
  • Nov 26, 2015 9:37am Nov 26, 2015 9:37am
Thanks G, that was an interesting take on things

Quoting GEfx
I take longer term position trades as well as short term trades. Both trading styles are rooted in structural analysis, combining the best of FA and TA. Since the discussion here is on position trading, here is another view on relative strength and weakness going forward. I noticed some discussion about which currencies are considered strong and which are weak/not strong. Here is a day chart of the E/$ where I will try to add to this discussion. Most of the dollar advance/strength was realized by mid-March this year, with some pullback from that...
  • #62
  • Edited 2:49am Dec 4, 2015 2:34am | Edited 2:49am
Quoting verv
I'm confused by the Euro. The rate hike in December is almost a dead cert, 75% of traders expect a 0.25% hike. More QE by the ECB is almost a dead cert, and Draghi again said it was happening this December. And yet Euro is not making new lows. That is strange to me. It suggests there are buyers.

As predicted there were buyers. Is that reason enough to go long, probably not but it might have been a good time to lighten some trades and take some profit - did I do either? No ha, stops were hit.

I have seen this before, when the SNB introduced in Dec 2014 a negative deposit rate the initial spike higher in price got faded over the next few hours and we know what happened next. This was the same kind of thing.
  • #63
  • Dec 4, 2015 2:42am Dec 4, 2015 2:42am
A couple of posts in another thread which I thought were valuable. I had to paste them in because when you quote it chops half the text out.

Equity millipede thread for those wondering.

==============================================

quote=Quinton;8604305
IMPORTANT: Traders of this method please read!
-------------------------------------------------------
Since this is one of the more popular threads on FF, I think the following small contribution might be helpful There is a lot that can be learned from this thread. However, I disagree that the FX is the proper market to apply this method in. In fact, it could perhaps be the worst market for this. FX is known to be mean-reverting in part due to the relative valuation of the currency pairs. Another reason is CB intervention. To maintain economic stability, CBs will intervene and keep currencies within a certain range, preventing them from taking off like stocks do. The millipede method can be described as follows: You are essentially trying to sneak as many "legs" into a long-term trend hoping that the market does not return to their entry points. The problem here is the reliance on long-term trends, which are notoriously hard to anticipate. Other times the markets simply doesn't offer any trends (which happens a lot in FX). I would recommend that this method be applied in individual stocks or the futures indicies (SP 500, Nasdaq, etc). These market experience strong trends that put the odds in your favor that price is less likely to return to a trade's entry point.
Quinton

==============================================

quote=Calculus;8618026
Quinton makes an excellent point, others have made it as well - the fact that FX markets mean revert much of the time, especially to get the break even stops, makes this strategy hard and frustrating to implement for many.

Basically as Q points out it's a mega trend following strategy, so latch on to a mega trend and great riches will follow. Conversely, latch on to markets that don't put in many mega trends, or if they do, have large retracements of those trends, and frustration will be the order of the day.

So why are people in this game? Is it to make money or to trade FX? If money is your goal does it matter if you make your fortune on Monkey crap futures or Dollar/Yen? The money will be no different which ever one you choose. Therefore as Q points out, perhaps the strategy is better suited to other markets perhaps stocks, there are plenty of choose from.

Easy to scan 1,000 stocks over the weekend looking for 10-20 which have promise for possible trading the following week. Yes, stocks won't be perfect, many will be frustrating as well (that's markets) but they'll probably be far better than using FX. Remember, G looks for certain things in the markets, he doesn't focus on crosses that aren't doing much.

Overall, Quinton makes a VERY valid point and it's advisable for aspiring traders to take note.

===============================================
  • #64
  • Dec 5, 2015 8:24am Dec 5, 2015 8:24am
I have been watching bitcoins for awhile and recently noticed it broke out of its range.

Fundamental wise, supply is slowing and more or less fixed; transaction volumes have been on the rise. To me government resistance is a good thing.

Have been building longs since the break-out and retest of the range.

I have clear exit points for losses and gains so please do not take this as investment advice without a plan.

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  • #65
  • Dec 5, 2015 11:48am Dec 5, 2015 11:48am
Quoting shellsnail
I have been watching bitcoins for awhile and recently noticed it broke out of its range. Fundamental wise, supply is slowing and more or less fixed; transaction volumes have been on the rise. To me government resistance is a good thing. Have been building longs since the break-out and retest of the range. I have clear exit points for losses and gains so please do not take this as investment advice without a plan. {image}
I laughed at bitcoin initially, thought it would be gone by now, and I still think the idea of cyber money ridiculous. And yet it is still here.

There is an obvious irony here, most of the money I have at bits online too lol. But my money is government backed, and traceable.

But I see more and more stores using bitcoin too. Interesting for sure.
  • #66
  • Dec 6, 2015 2:18am Dec 6, 2015 2:18am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} "Dead certain" ... Well theres your problem. Month end EURGBP flows should be a good time to shake oit these dead certain assumptees and find some much needed liquidity for a further potential fall. Also they were pricing in the ECB easing well before the announcement {image}
Hm
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Time hides Nothing
  • #67
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:36pm Dec 7, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Hm {image}
What are you seeing this week? Dollar to regain its mojo
  • #68
  • Dec 7, 2015 8:44pm Dec 7, 2015 8:44pm
Very good point of view, objective thinking, it deserves attention.
  • #69
  • Edited 2:24am Dec 9, 2015 2:12am | Edited 2:24am
Quoting verv
{quote} What are you seeing this week? Dollar to regain its mojo
Hey Verv, nothing "intelligent" to say here, USD didnt come up on my radar this week... Flat for now, was short AJ and EJ from Monday, both fired but EJ held support and AJ hit its target now, Im thinking big short sqeeze on EUR though, not trding it but... EA was a good continuation but it eluded me.

Sometimes things fall into place .. Doesnt mean though that a place is always present.
Time hides Nothing
  • #70
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:03pm Dec 15, 2015 4:03pm
Not trading currencies right now, and I'm glad. Only looking for shorts on indices.

Not shorting the the SP-500, it is the strongest of the bunch and harder to short.

If the indices move significantly higher then I'm not interested in shorting, but right now I am shorting rips and selling dips lol.

Have done will the past few weeks, may not last though :/
  • #71
  • Edited 4:16am Jan 4, 2016 3:59am | Edited 4:16am
2016

Looking to sell rips in 2016 on US indices, new highs would invalidate that thesis - CFD vehicle.

USDJPY to reprice lower, in anticipation of risk off, new yearly highs would invalidate this thesis.

Oil to rebound, not right away, may look to buy a breakout higher (rather than buy dips). Oil prices in this range are not sustainable. Instrument of choice would by CFDs but the holding cost is quite high on the long side so may have to find an alternative way to go long.

Will update this later if I can think of others.

Good luck
  • #72
  • Jan 7, 2016 12:33pm Jan 7, 2016 12:33pm
Quoting shellsnail
I have been watching bitcoins for awhile and recently noticed it broke out of its range. Fundamental wise, supply is slowing and more or less fixed; transaction volumes have been on the rise. To me government resistance is a good thing. Have been building longs since the break-out and retest of the range. I have clear exit points for losses and gains so please do not take this as investment advice without a plan. {image}
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higher and holding gains.
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  • #73
  • Jan 10, 2016 4:13pm Jan 10, 2016 4:13pm
^And may continue to go higher.

if the Fed have to lower the rate, or launch another round of QE because of a poor economy we must look again at long gold or silver.

Scared money will seek a liquid safe haven before an illiquid one such as gold though. A rising USD and a bull market in the metals may be an oxymoron.
  • #74
  • Jan 29, 2016 1:54am Jan 29, 2016 1:54am
The negative rate move by the BOJ needs to be watched.

If the initial jump higher is faded in the coming days then, imo, it is a strong sign of where the actual market sees USDJPY and I will be selling.

How markets react to big news is telling. If market reaction diverges from the expected reaction then something is brewing.

The EURCHF jumped with negative rates from the SNB, and then retraced that price movement which was the cue to get short then.
  • #75
  • Edited 6:12am Feb 8, 2016 3:13am | Edited 6:12am
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/europ...raoul-pal.html

Above is potentially a catalyst for gold.

If European banks are on the edge of needing a bailout to meet their regulatory capital requirements we have very strong reasons to buy moves higher in the two metals.

However nothing could happen, and if it does it would be wise to disregard any moves higher in the metals at least for now.




The author suggests that trouble could spread to US banks, I think that is unlikely.

US banks reformed massively after 2008 and deleveraged significantly. They have reserves in excess of their regulatory requirements of up to 2.5 trillion dollars which is significant amount and probably more than enough to weather any storm in Europe.

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US banks could be a buy in such a scenario where banks stocks prices drop significantly but I would not touch major European banks under any circumstances right now. Bailouts of banks such as that which happened in the US during 2008 resulted in major shareholder dilution of up to 80%, if that did have to be repeated in Europe you would have no idea what terms you would get.



This is all just 'what if' right now.





Edit - it seems UK banks have plenty of excess reserves too (phew)

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Edit 2 - EU banks excess reserves, a worrying picture (yelp) - what is happening here?

Attached Image
  • #76
  • Jun 16, 2016 4:21am Jun 16, 2016 4:21am
Quoting verv
2016 Looking to sell rips in 2016 on US indices, new highs would invalidate that thesis - CFD vehicle. USDJPY to reprice lower, in anticipation of risk off, new yearly highs would invalidate this thesis. Oil to rebound, not right away, may look to buy a breakout higher (rather than buy dips). Oil prices in this range are not sustainable. Instrument of choice would by CFDs but the holding cost is quite high on the long side so may have to find an alternative way to go long. Will update this later if I can think of others. Good luck
Predictions generally have been correct.

Have a large amount of money on oil, a silver hedge on and made some money on USDJPY. Was trading the equities earlier this year with success, and then gave it all back as markets recovered.

Hard to trade these moves, it is volatile but not directional. Increasingly realising that my skill set and personality is more suited to active investing rather than active leveraged trading, and my money has been moving in that direction as a reflection of that.

Predictions still remain broadly the same, equities might underperform for the foreseeable future, and rising rates (when they finally come) will mean that even with GDP growth and improvement in productivity as a result expect valuations of stocks to remained capped.
  • #77
  • Sep 30, 2023 3:56am Sep 30, 2023 3:56am
Somebody want to give a break down of what economic factors they think influence currency prices?

The most popular one is interest rates, that almost everybody seems to unanimously agree upon.

Anything else?
  • #78
  • Oct 1, 2023 10:08am Oct 1, 2023 10:08am
Quoting tashkent
sure. these charts are for usdjpy and we could be in the beginning of wave 3. just pure speculation. {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
Thanks for sharing the chart and it really helped me! Continue posting like this because it helps newbies like me.
  • #79
  • Last Post: Oct 1, 2023 12:52pm Oct 1, 2023 12:52pm
Quoting FHNathaniel
{quote} Thanks for sharing the chart and it really helped me! Continue posting like this because it helps newbies like me.


That's not going to happen, 3rd anniversary of his last post.



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Did anyone ever define "Position Trading" in this thread?

Seems most replies assumed the Fundamental aspect as a long-term strategy; then the thread was dead for 5-years, coincidence?

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