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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,661
  • Jan 1, 2016 12:50pm Jan 1, 2016 12:50pm
junk & not so junky

http://bond-yields.com/c/yield-rate-...an-bond-rates/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,662
  • Jan 1, 2016 2:40pm Jan 1, 2016 2:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} then there's gold & the miners.....won't stay in the basement forever....who will survive?.....Yamana?....currently trading for $1.86, was trading above $9 to start 2014 {image}


In addition to CHK, SUNE had a "moment" a few weeks ago ... . But I may have missed the bottom of that bottom; nevertheless, humungous upside if it can ever get its crap together. End of July high was 33 bucks or so ... . Now at 5, but was as low as 2 1/2.

There's also GRPN, but I'm not sure there's jack diddly for an upside to that one ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,663
  • Jan 1, 2016 10:36pm Jan 1, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} then there's gold & the miners.....won't stay in the basement forever....who will survive?.....Yamana?....currently trading for $1.86, was trading above $9 to start 2014 {image}
The other beaten down possibility would be Kinross (KGC); AEM and GG are pricier go-to's. Here's a good article on all the possibilities: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-m...210546801.html

But AUY would not be a bad covered call candidate for a short-term play:

Buy 100 shares at 1.86
Sell 1 Feb 19th 2 call
Whole Package: 1.72/contract
Max Profit: $28/contract if called away at 2 (16% ROC)

1 contract will hardly do, but several might make it worthwhile ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,664
  • Jan 1, 2016 10:44pm Jan 1, 2016 10:44pm
re: SUNE and the rest of solar, very conflicting developments - tax credits were extended for 5 years (yes, massive) but the State utility commissions are starting to rewrite the net metering regs (example, Nevada - which was bad enough to make Solar City abandon doing business in that state).....result: tax credit the bigger deal but the Nevada action clouds the future...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,665
  • Jan 1, 2016 10:46pm Jan 1, 2016 10:46pm
gold has been such a snooze last couple years, I can't really get worked up about it now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,666
  • Jan 1, 2016 10:55pm Jan 1, 2016 10:55pm
Next Week's Earnings Plays:

MON: Announces on 1/6 (Wednesday) before market open
WBA: Announces on 1/7 (Thursday) before market open
BBBY: Announces on 1/7 (Thursday) after market close

MON -- .97 credit for a 93/104 Jan 15th short strangle.
WBA -- 1.05 credit for a 78.5/91.5, Jan 15th short strangle.
BBBY -- .73 credit for the 44.5/52 Jan 15 short strangle.

I'll naturally check these on Monday or Tuesday. The IVR's, IV's, and mid prices are suspect in the off hours ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,667
  • Jan 1, 2016 11:18pm Jan 1, 2016 11:18pm
Quoting The Fool
gold has been such a snooze last couple years, I can't really get worked up about it now....
Personally, I think the better plays in the basic materials/mining sectors involve stuff that actually serves a purpose -- copper, steel, etc. (e.g., FCX, X) or other basic materials (e.g., HUN). Hard to get excited about what I call "jewelry metals," especially when underlyings like SLV and GLD don't get that volatile so don't make for decent premium selling plays ... .

Solar's a totally mixed bag and subject to a lot of "irrational exuberance." I guess that's why I'm playing a small like SUNE vs. a larger issue like FSLR or SCTY. That way, I won't be handed my nuts in a jar ... . A good, skeptical view of this overdone "solar orgasm": http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...mpaign=article
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,668
  • Jan 2, 2016 1:21am Jan 2, 2016 1:21am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Personally, I think the better plays in the basic materials/mining sectors involve stuff that actually serves a purpose -- copper, steel, etc. (e.g., FCX, X) or other basic materials
right, real assets........

LaForge is a good read at Wells Fargo.

https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/m...eal-assets.htm

"Fundamentals, technicals, and history suggest that most of oils price damage has likely been seen. The 65 percent oil-price decline is now the third worst since the early 1980s. We believe, supply and demand globally is starting to balance. The 2008 lows of $31 a barrel should offer good technical support. We expect oil to begin moving toward the mid-$40 per barrel range, once year-end tax loss selling concludes, seasonality factors fade, and volatility subsides."

I don't agree with his statement there about global supply/demand balancing.....I think that remains to be seen.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,669
  • Jan 2, 2016 2:58am Jan 2, 2016 2:58am
won't stop me from throwing change at long oil. Trade below is a Feb/Mar USO calls diag - $15/15.5......second screen shows an adder of a super cheap Feb calls vert @ $15.5/16 - totally eliminates the death slide risk of the diagonal overshoot. The Big Kahuna.....

The beauty of the Big Kahuna, if you can set it up, is it allows you to let the diagonal (or calendar) run to expiry day, which is really what they need to do
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,670
  • Edited 11:40am Jan 2, 2016 3:21am | Edited 11:40am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Solar's a totally mixed bag and subject to a lot of "irrational exuberance." I guess that's why I'm playing a small like SUNE vs. a larger issue like FSLR or SCTY. That way, I won't be handed my nuts in a jar ....
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/...from-2015.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren...aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...mpaign=article

You can read all about the various developments in net metering policies in the States. The gist of it for SCTY and SUNE, etc: if many other States go the way of NV, solar installation companies will go out of business. The tax credit extension thing is huge, true, but if homeowners & business owners who are looking at putting solar electric systems on their properties have to start thinking of a possible 8 year payback turning into a 30-yr payback, or a never payback, well.....forget about it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,671
  • Jan 2, 2016 4:10am Jan 2, 2016 4:10am
Brazil.....the Rousseff impeachment drama will be big news in 2016.....I saw about 10,000 Jan '17 EWZ $35 calls get bought on Friday, around 33c. ....other big chunks of calls in other chains.....will be many ways to catch that action, but basically, if it starts to look like the impeachment of Rousseff can actually happen, the Brazilian stock market will rally large.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,672
  • Jan 2, 2016 4:36am Jan 2, 2016 4:36am
PBR calls, Apr/Jul $7 cal, Apr $7/$8 vert.....Big Kahuna style, a 25c debit....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,673
  • Jan 3, 2016 10:32pm Jan 3, 2016 10:32pm
/ES getting sold overnight....maybe we can see a tall red candle for the week? Sick of seeing SPY range +/- $5. I still have Jan UVXY and VIX call bflys but I need a robust ^VIX spike to make money on them & I need that this week.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,674
  • Jan 4, 2016 12:19am Jan 4, 2016 12:19am
China the only thing really spooked the US markets in 2015 - maybe they can do it again?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,675
  • Jan 4, 2016 5:18am Jan 4, 2016 5:18am
Quoting Cecil Gee
TLT AND FXY are the two new year long term strangles I'm looking to make, just waiting for the longer term IV to come down, hoping to get in sometime next week or at one of the low volatility days next week or near the closing of year end ready for the start of the new year for some strong directional moves in those two mentioned as to me those charts indicate
this couldn't have started better for FXY will be waiting on where TLT starts when markets open later
  • #11,676
  • Jan 4, 2016 5:26am Jan 4, 2016 5:26am
Quoting The Fool
/ES getting sold overnight....maybe we can see a tall red candle for the week? Sick of seeing SPY range +/- $5. I still have Jan UVXY and VIX call bflys but I need a robust ^VIX spike to make money on them & I need that this week. {image}
Hi Fool, nice thread you've got here. I am just starting to get into options myself and have been just doing a lot of studying. I currently have 2 trades on, starting small on 1 contract each. I have 2 bear vertical put spreads in the SPY and DIA I put on last week. For the SPY I am long the 206 FEB05 put and short the 204 FEB05 put. For DIA I am long the 176.5 FEB05 put and short the 174 FEB05 put. I have been holding these trades since middle of last week. I am currently sticking mainly to vertical spreads until I get a bit more comfortable. Look forward to following your thread!

I see you use think or swim, I just recently switched over to them from Fidelity as I feel their software is one of the best around for options trading. Tom Sosnoff is top notch and i've been watching a lot of his stuff over at tastytrade. How do you like the software so far?
  • #11,677
  • Jan 4, 2016 5:30am Jan 4, 2016 5:30am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Hi Fool, nice thread you've got here. I am just starting to get into options myself and have been just doing a lot of studying. I currently have 2 trades on, starting small on 1 contract each. I have 2 bear vertical put spreads in the SPY and DIA I put on last week. For the SPY I am long the 206 FEB05 put and short the 204 FEB05 put. For DIA I am long the 176.5 FEB05 put and short the 174 FEB05 put. I have been holding these trades since middle of last week. I am currently sticking mainly to vertical spreads until I get a bit more comfortable....
welcome to the thread and good luck with your trade
  • #11,678
  • Jan 4, 2016 6:09am Jan 4, 2016 6:09am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah, you are right about that. I told that before -> always have something to decay in the background... Loking to DO THAT in the coming year. Today, I sold /ES Feb 2120/2150 call spread for $9.50 CR. (since I do not beleive in new highs soon... new ER's cycle is just around the corner, with AA reporting on Jan 11th)
Gtc close @ $4.00 got triggered early today. Not bad for a few days hold.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,679
  • Jan 4, 2016 9:39am Jan 4, 2016 9:39am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} Hi Fool, nice thread you've got here. I am just starting to get into options myself and have been just doing a lot of studying. I currently have 2 trades on, starting small on 1 contract each. I have 2 bear vertical put spreads in the SPY and DIA I put on last week. For the SPY I am long the 206 FEB05 put and short the 204 FEB05 put. For DIA I am long the 176.5 FEB05 put and short the 174 FEB05 put. I have been holding these trades since middle of last week. I am currently sticking mainly to vertical spreads until I get a bit more comfortable....
Hey, welcome, gmann....yes I use ToS and would recommend it to anyone who is trading options. Those spreads you indicate are in profit? Good luck with them.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,680
  • Edited 11:44am Jan 4, 2016 10:19am | Edited 11:44am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Gtc close @ $4.00 got triggered early today. Not bad for a few days hold.
fast profits is the best profits. I have still quite a few bearish trades I put on to catch a vol spike after the Dec FOMC - right, the one that never really came. These are Jan UVXY and VIX call bflys that are now slightly in the money. If we get a follow up day of hard equity selling they will make good money. Two days of hard selling in the BTFD world almost a miracle......I did take off a UVXY Jan $22/20 bull put spread for about 55c net, nice to get that margin back. Also, have filled the USO Big Kahuna trade as shown above....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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