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  • #11,621
  • Dec 29, 2015 1:58pm Dec 29, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Note: They're called a "mullet" 'cuz "the business is in front; the party's in the back ... ."
Ima have to look at what you been doing with these covered call trades when I have more time to think. re: IWM, I filled the tres bullish "Big Kahuna" exactly as shown above.

I really shoulda followed my gut and bought SPY weekly $210 calls - anybody coulda guessed they would try to jack up the index into the close of the year, what with it sitting dead flat for 2015 as of yesterday....$210 calls tripled today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,622
  • Dec 29, 2015 2:25pm Dec 29, 2015 2:25pm
fml look at FXCM.....I was saying buy/hold the shares way back when, see they R/S a while back, though....but now, sheesh, maybe one to fade....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,623
  • Dec 29, 2015 8:21pm Dec 29, 2015 8:21pm
http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...mpaign=article

GLD, ABX, NEM, GG, GDX, etc....chart is 20 years of /GC front month 1-month candles. 2014-15 has been kind of a snooze, but boy howdy lookit 2009-13....wish I had been a-tradin options back then. Maybe we can get some more o them $300 monthly candles?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,624
  • Dec 29, 2015 8:32pm Dec 29, 2015 8:32pm
GLD for 2015....best months were around $130 (re: gold itself), up or down....best bull month were January
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-29_1827gld.png Size: 112 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,625
  • Dec 29, 2015 9:20pm Dec 29, 2015 9:20pm
one nice thing about GLD is that it has quarterlies - so you can go way out and still do a narrow spread - the Sep/Sep5 calendar or diag, for instance. Can you name the other tricks that have quarterly options? Sure ya can.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-29_gld4.png Size: 87 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,626
  • Dec 29, 2015 9:41pm Dec 29, 2015 9:41pm
a bet that GLD will recover 2015's losses by the end of Q3 2016
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-29_1937gld6.png Size: 79 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,627
  • Dec 29, 2015 11:30pm Dec 29, 2015 11:30pm
high yield will rally big if oil rallies a little
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,628
  • Dec 30, 2015 1:59am Dec 30, 2015 1:59am
be my luck the SEC burns out derivatives trading on leveraged etf's just when I figure this shit out......

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...89#post8665189
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,629
  • Dec 30, 2015 7:57am Dec 30, 2015 7:57am
Quoting Cecil Gee
TLT AND FXY are the two new year long term strangles I'm looking to make, just waiting for the longer term IV to come down, hoping to get in sometime next week or at one of the low volatility days next week or near the closing of year end ready for the start of the new year for some strong directional moves in those two mentioned as to me those charts indicate

yesterday there seems to have been order of 15000 contracts for June 2016 exp at $138, trouble is I dont know if its a sell or a buy and theres nothing on the opposite side to suggest its a spread

TLT Jun 2016 138.000 call (TLT160617C00138000)
-OPR
0.99 0.00(0.00%) 8:41AM GMT
Prev Close:0.99
Open:0.99
Bid:N/A
Ask:N/A
Strike:138.00
Expire Date:17-Jun-16
Day's Range:0.99 - 0.99
Contract Range:N/A - N/A
Volume:15,000
Open Interest:15,118
  • #11,630
  • Dec 30, 2015 8:08am Dec 30, 2015 8:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
TLT AND FXY are the two new year long term strangles I'm looking to make, just waiting for the longer term IV to come down, hoping to get in sometime next week or at one of the low volatility days next week or near the closing of year end ready for the start of the new year for some strong directional moves in those two mentioned as to me those charts indicate
will be putting in a order on FXY for jun 2016 exp, a strangle $81 call and $79 put. Current trading price is around $1.40 ish for the call and $1.70 for the put, these prices will change a bit because of the low volume in the holidays but will see if i can get a fill later. FXY price at yesterdays close is below again this will change when markets open, looking for some kind of run on USD/JPY to start either way

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
-NYSEArca
80.44 29 Dec 21:00
  • #11,631
  • Dec 30, 2015 8:29am Dec 30, 2015 8:29am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yesterday there seems to have been order of 15000 contracts for June 2016 exp at $138, trouble is I dont know if its a sell or a buy and theres nothing on the opposite side to suggest its a spread TLT Jun 2016
Look at the $140 calls in Sept - it was a large diagonal spread, as shown below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-12-30_0627TLT.png Size: 82 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,632
  • Dec 30, 2015 8:37am Dec 30, 2015 8:37am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Look at the $140 calls in Sept - it was a large diagonal spread, as shown below {image}
see it now, looked into sept, the strangle was cheap last week as doing other spreads were
  • #11,633
  • Dec 30, 2015 8:47am Dec 30, 2015 8:47am
long bonds have gone up in the past after the Fed starts a tightening cycle....that diagonal has a break-even around $125.50 - $126...if you got in and bonds were going up at the beginning of Summer (sell [stocks] in May, go away) - then you would be sitting on the long calls for three months......however, the trader would prolly look to profit at the diagonal sweet spot near the June expiry.......this is an interesting bet....not one for me, though...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,634
  • Dec 30, 2015 9:29am Dec 30, 2015 9:29am
chop chop chop, up and down, the market is getting swung by oil, all year the same story....the last oil storage data point of the year out in a few minutes - if it's short, we rally, if long, we chop or fall.....directional trades have been hard to make consistent money on this year - the lesson: always be selling some premium. The only nice thing in my books now is the final decay of the UVXY Jan $20/$22 short puts vert I got for 78c credit several weeks ago. Had a chance to take it off for about 50c net at one point, but if we keep falling into 1st week of Jan, I will have that chance again as time is running out and theta does its thing
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,635
  • Dec 30, 2015 10:17am Dec 30, 2015 10:17am
Quoting The Fool
.....directional trades have been hard to make consistent money on this year - the lesson: always be selling some premium.
Yeah, you are right about that. I told that before -> always have something to decay in the background... Loking to DO THAT in the coming year.

Today, I sold /ES Feb 2120/2150 call spread for $9.50 CR.
(since I do not beleive in new highs soon... new ER's cycle is just around the corner, with AA reporting on Jan 11th)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,636
  • Dec 30, 2015 12:39pm Dec 30, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting StrayDog
Today, I sold /ES Feb 2120/2150 call spread for $9.50 CR. (since I do not beleive in new highs soon... new ER's cycle is just around the corner, with AA reporting on Jan 11th)
good luck with that, SDog. I don't think equities will be making big moves north until oil stages a comeback. Even if it was just a minor comeback, though, like say a bottoming out at WTI $45 +/-, then we could see US equities push up to new highs. If that is going to happen I'd bet it would be in late Q1 to Q2. I will look to sell SPY call verts but only into strength - might be waiting a while.

Hope things are going well for you - have a Happy New Year and best of luck in 2016.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,637
  • Dec 30, 2015 3:04pm Dec 30, 2015 3:04pm
tried to fill a Feb $31/35/39 UVXY calls calendar for 15c, then 20c - but she kept eluding me as iv rose into the selloff. I will from now on likely always have these wide-ish UVXY or VIX call bflys running out around 2-3 months to expiry, so long as I can get em pretty cheap......will try again tomorrow. Lesson learned on these is to take something off on any kind of vol spike gift, no need to try to be a hero......at the same time, hoping for more vol gifts in 2016......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,638
  • Dec 30, 2015 3:11pm Dec 30, 2015 3:11pm
Quoting The Fool
... Hope things are going well for you - have a Happy New Year and best of luck in 2016.
Thanx man, same to you.

Vol gifts? Mmmm... yummy stuff. Gotta go now... too tired and will hit the sack.
Looking to trade more on the sell-the-expensive-shit side (ups... I mean sell the premium...)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,639
  • Dec 30, 2015 6:08pm Dec 30, 2015 6:08pm
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_...5?locale=en-US

how not to do calendar spreads...these guys are running out of shit to talk about sometimes, it seems. You get in long vol calendar spreads to try to catch a known volatility-inducing event, like an earnings release, a big CB announcement, a pivotal election - those binary events. Brazil comes to mind - when are those impeachment hearings? You increase your odds dramatically by widening the time spread. You pay more for that, typically - however - sometimes the front option will have radically skewed (upwards) iv and you can get in wide spreads for small debits. You can not expect to make (much) money robotically selling front/buying back SPY weekly or monthly options, but you could do (much) better by timing those types of trades around expected days or periods of heightened market volatility....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,640
  • Edited 7:18pm Dec 30, 2015 6:35pm | Edited 7:18pm
http://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2015-276.html

http://www.etftrends.com/2015/12/wha...-inverse-etfs/

http://etfdb.com/news/2015/12/16/lat...everaged-etfs/

http://www.proshares.com/news/statem..._proposal.html

hands off my geared dewivatives, mofo's....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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