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Finding true Supply/Demand on your chart

  • #41
  • Dec 9, 2015 6:32am Dec 9, 2015 6:32am
Quoting doggette
EURUSD possible intraday setup: On higher timeframes, trend is still down (Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly). However on medium timeframes, trend is up. I always go with the higher TF trend when in doubt, but not until we reach at least H4 Q point or Daily Q point. Since e/u now has an evening star formation on H1, if this holds in the next 20 mins, my intraday setup is a short from conterminous line at the newly formed supply on H1 @ 1.0929. Target at least 1.0890, depending on whether in the US session price accepts value area or not. Setup only valid...
Bearish engulfing pattern not strong enough, long wick to the downside indicates that there is still interest in buying it, setup invalid:
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  • #42
  • Dec 9, 2015 11:17am Dec 9, 2015 11:17am
Quoting doggette
GBPJPY now above NY value area and good for longs until 185.40. {image}
Target reached.
  • #43
  • Dec 9, 2015 11:19am Dec 9, 2015 11:19am
Quoting doggette
S&P currently pushing inside New York value area. Price has reached H4 Q Point Low. Given the fact that there's a 200DMA line at 2060 (spot market), this could be a bullish intraday setup. Targets at 2086/2088. Careful though, this is a countertrend intraday trade. We could see more positioning and offloading ahead of FOMC rate decision next week. Learn to trade like me: Market Stalkers ebook is out now. PDF: www.angelocapital.co.uk/products Kindle: http://amzn.to/1ltXzVW (free for...
Took the long off after price started to print a second black candle on M15. Since at that point it exhausted the average daily range, currently between 22-30 handles per day, it was time to take profits.
  • #44
  • Dec 10, 2015 8:28am Dec 10, 2015 8:28am
Little article I wrote on near term eurusd levels and general fundamental picture. I would really appreciate it if you guys went over there and read it:

http://invezz.com/contributed/forex/...s-EURUSD-going
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  • #45
  • Dec 10, 2015 8:53am Dec 10, 2015 8:53am
S&P Topdown Analysis:

Turning trend on medium timeframes Daily and H4 - trend down.
Confluence of todays NY Value High and H1 conterminous line of supply 2066.
Confluence of 200DMA and H4 conterminous line at 2060.
Area to watch for rejection to the downside: 2060-2066.

Wall Street Market Profile: opened inside Value, however Value area unusually large.
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  • #46
  • Dec 11, 2015 3:57am Dec 11, 2015 3:57am
Quoting doggette
S&P Topdown Analysis: Turning trend on medium timeframes Daily and H4 - trend down. Confluence of todays NY Value High and H1 conterminous line of supply 2066. Confluence of 200DMA and H4 conterminous line at 2060. Area to watch for rejection to the downside: 2060-2066. Wall Street Market Profile: opened inside Value, however Value area unusually large. {image}
Rejection happened at 2066/67 as predicted. Profit taken at the end of day.
  • #47
  • Dec 11, 2015 4:52am Dec 11, 2015 4:52am
GBPUSD Topdown Analysis:
Trend: Primary down (Weekly, Monthly), secondary up (H1, H4)
Confluence: monthly pivot at 1.5181.
Daily Q point higher up at 1.5225

Summary:
Currently rejecting immediate demand on H4 and tracking back through Value area.
Longs are in play until at least 1.5240, maybe even 1.5290.
Trade direction: long around VAL at 1.5145

Targets between 1.5240/80

www.angelocapital.co.uk

For ebook, see first page of this thread.
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  • #48
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:24am Dec 11, 2015 7:24am
EURUSD intraday setup:

Trend: lower timeframes up (H1, H4, D1), higher timeframes down.
Confluence: Price touching Daily Hi Q Point, but there was already a reaction there yesterday. Also 200DMA lies higher at 1.1082

Summary:
Price now at New York Value Area High. Some demand from 1.0948-1.0922. If this level holds, price could go higher closer towards 200DMA between 1.1060/1.1080

Direction of intraday trade: long.

Setup invalid if 1.0920 is broken.
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  • #49
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:45am Dec 11, 2015 7:45am
S&P setup:

Topdown Analysis
Trend: H4, D1 down, Weekly UP. Trade direction: short
Confluence: none available

Summary:
Expecting another rejection to the downside towards 2006 generalised target (part of a bigger trading plan)
This area is also the bottom of the current confirmed swing. Overlapping the low of the gap from 15th Nov 2015, there's a strong H4 demand that could provide some support at least for a little while. Price is now firmly below 200DMA.

Trade area for rejection: 2048-2058.
Strong H4 supply at 2052. Today that is also near VAH from yesterday.
2048 is the conterminous supply line from the Daily chart from yesterdays drop.
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  • #50
  • Dec 14, 2015 8:03am Dec 14, 2015 8:03am
S&P500 setup:

Topdown analysis
Trend: Down on H4 & D1, up on Weekly

However, price running into a strong demand on H4.
New York value area around this level too.
Price currently pushing into VA from Friday, indicating acceptance of these prices. Providing price doesn't go below Value Low again (2014), possible intraday long setups towards a strong H4 supply and 200 DMA around 2048/2052.

SUMMARY:
Although still in a down trend on secondary medium timeframes, S&P is now attempting to go through Fridays New York Value Area, located between 2014 and 2026. This is an early attempt at a bullish intraday move. Long setups if price stays above 2014.

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #51
  • Dec 14, 2015 2:59pm Dec 14, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting doggette
S&P setup: Topdown Analysis Trend: H4, D1 down, Weekly UP. Trade direction: short Confluence: none available Summary: Expecting another rejection to the downside towards 2006 generalised target (part of a bigger trading plan) This area is also the bottom of the current confirmed swing. Overlapping the low of the gap from 15th Nov 2015, there's a strong H4 demand that could provide some support at least for a little while. Price is now firmly below 200DMA. Trade area for rejection: 2048-2058. Strong H4 supply at 2052. Today that is also near VAH...
Very late mover s&p today. Finally going up. Waiting...
  • #52
  • Dec 15, 2015 8:20am Dec 15, 2015 8:20am
Quoting doggette
S&P500 setup: Topdown analysis Trend: Down on H4 & D1, up on Weekly However, price running into a strong demand on H4. New York value area around this level too. Price currently pushing into VA from Friday, indicating acceptance of these prices. Providing price doesn't go below Value Low again (2014), possible intraday long setups towards a strong H4 supply and 200 DMA around 2048/2052. SUMMARY: Although still in a down trend on secondary medium timeframes, S&P is now attempting to go through Fridays New York Value Area, located between 2014 and...
Almost at target but Average daily range has been exhausted and I'm contemplating closing the trade. Two options: it will either reach the H4 Q point area or it will print a bearish candle. Case 1, I take my full target, case 2 I close the trade manually. At weekly pivot now.
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  • #53
  • Dec 15, 2015 8:48am Dec 15, 2015 8:48am
Ka-ching - profit booked.
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  • #54
  • Dec 15, 2015 1:48pm Dec 15, 2015 1:48pm


Quoting doggette
Ka-ching - profit booked. {image}

  • #55
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:47am Dec 21, 2015 9:47am
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  • #56
  • Dec 22, 2015 8:50am Dec 22, 2015 8:50am
Crude oil open above Value Area, will it hold for a long? Open above value usually means a bullish signal. So far no close inside value but just a probe into it. If price closes a 30 min candle inside VA, setup invalid.
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  • #57
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:46am Dec 22, 2015 10:46am
Almost there... Reaching 3x profit target, taken a third off to protect the position, looking for 4:1 r/r


www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #58
  • Dec 29, 2015 5:45am Dec 29, 2015 5:45am
Possible short setup in s&p for today as a quick swing in the futures market.

S&P500 setup:

Topdown analysis
Trend: Down on H4 & D1, up on Weekly
Confluence: inside Daily QHi point and H4 QHi point with a zone containing monthly pivot. 200DMA also around these levels, slightly lower.

8 hour chart shows a strong zone with a base (very important!). Q Point placement also calls for a short around here. As a part of a general trading plan, I am selling rallies as opportunities arise.

www.angelocapital.co.uk
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  • #59
  • Dec 29, 2015 10:42am Dec 29, 2015 10:42am
Does it have any importance if the indicies close in plus for the year? Dax opened this year at 9.700 and are well in plus, but SP 500 just barely crawled in plus today, with an opening price 2060 1 jan 2015.. Dow is still in minus, and have to close above 17.860, and mayby its heading up there before year end.. ?

Happy new year to you
  • #60
  • Dec 29, 2015 11:00am Dec 29, 2015 11:00am
Quoting fxdk
Does it have any importance if the indicies close in plus for the year? Dax opened this year at 9.700 and are well in plus, but SP 500 just barely crawled in plus today, with an opening price 2060 1 jan 2015.. Dow is still in minus, and have to close above 17.860, and mayby its heading up there before year end.. ? Happy new year to you
There will be some repositioning as institutions balance their books, but this positioning is usually quite technical in nature. With the rate rise in US, I expect to see investors bailing on equities and putting their cash in gold to protect themselves from possible coming inflation.

Also keep in mind that with most equity indices, we failed to make HHs this year. Every previous year S&P managed to keep making HHs. I reckon that's pretty relevant technical info.
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