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From Rookie to Full time Forex trader

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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Dec 22, 2015 5:13am Dec 16, 2015 1:27pm | Edited Dec 22, 2015 5:13am
Hello guys!

First of all I want to make one thing clear and that is that I am not a professional, full time, knowledgeable or even a profitable Forex trader at the moment.

My knowledge is basically nothing and this thread I will update the trades that I do, my predictions (using the knowledge I do have) and analyzing the trades I do to see what I did was good or bad. See how I can improve. Even if my trade is profitable I don't want to say "Alright we made profit it's all good" No! I want to analyze it and see If I could do something at that time to get a better read on the market, to see if I could have done something to get more confidence in that trade.
I will also have a list of things I need to learn and what I've already learned and a list of questions that I have. If you see that I've missed something in the list or if you have a resource that could help me with certain things feel free to let me know!
I will also include my thought process going trough these trades, where I think I'm stuck, where I'm feeling insecure etc.
I will also include a list of resources I've used to learn the things that I know.
I will be trading demo money until I can see a consistent return in profit and I am confident in my abilities.

What do I expect from you guys?
I expect this thread to be friendly and helpful. I don't want to see any comments like "Why even go in the Forex market it's a losers game" or "Dude you're such an idiot. That trade was retarded" or "The analysis you did was simply retarded, it made no sense."

If you want to give input, share your knowledge or help me in general then I applaud that but please do that in a respectful manner.
If you think something can help me feel free to share either in this thread or trough a PM.

So let me tell you a little bit about myself:
I'm becoming 22 soon, socially I'm not good at all. I don't handle people very well in real life and because of this the jobs I could possibly do are quite limited. I was looking for things I could do and things I would enjoy. I came across the Forex market not so long ago and I got a course on Udemy (it's a website) about the subject and I decided to open a demo account and trade a little bit. Of course like any beginner I only lost money the course didn't help much.
Even when losing money I still enjoyed trading so here I am giving it a shot.
I like anime, games and streaming.

Resources I used to learn the things I know:
-Udemy Forex beginner course. (Wouldn't recommend it Not worth the money.)
-Udemy Forex EA course (Wouldn't recommend it Not worth the money.)
-Into the grey by Jason Stapleton (It's free and has a lot of information. It's a must watch.)
-Article on when to move a stop loss to break even. (It's free so why not read it!)
-Babypips school section (It's free and has a lot of useful information! Read it!)



Now here are a few comments I want to make:
-You may see me take a lot of baby steps trough this process but eventually even baby steps create distance.
-I want success not having it is not an option. Be it being a consistently profitable trader or just growing as a trader.
-Even is a door shuts in my face I will look for a way to get past it.
-Losses will happen. You can't always be right.
-Trust yourself and believe in your capabilities.
-You don't have to trade.
-Be patient and wait for your opportunity.
-Learn from your mistakes.
-Check the news calendar even if you're not a fundamental trader.
-Greed will only work against you.


If you guys decide to follow this and help me reach my goal or follow my progress, thank you for that.
AntiVi
  • #2
  • Edited Dec 17, 2015 4:09am Dec 16, 2015 2:58pm | Edited Dec 17, 2015 4:09am
Hi AntiVi,

Here some basic technique for starter. Hope it will be useful for you in the long run. CHEERS!


*I just updated to make the method a bit organized so you could understand more what I mean*
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx S and R method.docx   181 KB | 826 downloads
  • #3
  • Edited 4:36pm Dec 16, 2015 4:25pm | Edited 4:36pm
Alright first of all I want to get everything out there.
I started my demo account with 5000$ I tried to trade the news using the calendar and I made a bunch of losses.
Then after getting more information I actually started to analyze the market a little bit.

In the last 7 trades (after I got that additional information) I managed to make 12.75$ profit. (Lost 3 trades won 4 trades)
Now considering this I have a total loss of 92.14$
I will be trying to get this back into the positive numbers as I go on.

I pretty much trade on the 1h charts using the lower time frame charts as a confirmation of my analysis.
I don't like to leave trades overnight.
What kind of trader does that make me?

As I was making those trades I made a few mistakes and I will list them here:
-My first mistake was not being patient enough, the candle wasn't closed yet but it was indicating a double top so I went for it and placed a trade. In the end it was a false alarm and I made a loss.
-The second mistake was the same thing but in a different situation.
-The third mistake was not checking the news calendar. The news today for the USD made a trade hit my stop loss and I had no clue what happened until after it happened and I felt like an idiot.
-The fourth mistake was setting my stop loss too close. The market was going in my favor and I set my stop loss higher to make sure I couldn't lose money. I did obviously end up making a profit but I could have had more profit if I wasn't so hasty.
-The Fifth mistake was me doubting myself. I ended up cancelling a trade and going in the opposite direction and ending up making a loss instead of a profit all because I doubted my own analysis.

Conclusion:
-I need to work on the position of my stop loss.
-I need to work on my patience.
-I need to check the news calendar.
-I need more information on fundamental trading if I want to trade the news.
-I need to have more confidence in my own analysis and stick with it.

Questions:
-Is moving my stop loss to make sure I break even or make profit a good idea and if so should there be a certain distance between the stop loss and the current market price?
-Are there general rules to setting a stop loss? I usually trade on 1h charts.
-What kind of trader am I?
-How do I analyze the market after a big fluctuation because of news? Screenshot


Here is where the extent of my analysis is at at the moment:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 1.png Size: 50 KB



Quoting greatsky
Hi AntiVi, Here some basic technique for starter. Hope it will be useful for you in the long run. CHEERS! {file}
Thank you for the reply I will check out the attachment!

AntiVi
  • #4
  • Dec 17, 2015 4:59am Dec 17, 2015 4:59am
Hi Antivi,

How is your trading going? Have you done your backtesting on the file that I just give it to you? Do you have any question that I could help you with?
  • #5
  • Dec 17, 2015 3:01pm Dec 17, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting AntiVi
Hello guys! First of all I want to make one thing clear and that is that I am not a professional, full time, knowledgeable or even a profitable Forex trader at the moment. My knowledge is basically nothing and this thread I will update the trades that I do, my predictions (using the knowledge I do have) and analyzing the trades I do to see what I did was good or bad. See how I can improve. Even if my trade is profitable I don't want to say "Alright we made profit it's all good" No! I want to analyze it and see If I could do something at that time...
Hi AntiVi;

I would encourage you to check out this thread by TRD http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=562581 it will save you a great deal of time in learning to Trade.

Understand you are Trading in a Zero Sum Market, this means someone has to be on the other side of your Trade.

It's important to think who's on the other side of your Trade because you want to be Trading with the Institutional Money and not against it.

Institutional Money have a business model that they follow day after day Accumulation - Manipulation - Profit Run

To Accumulate Orders they need Liquidity, if they are building Buy Orders they need Selling Volume to Buy into, (if they where to drop all their Buy Orders into the Market at once they would blast through the Order Book pushing the Market higher and higher as they get filled) they need this Selling Volume so they can fill their Buy Orders within a Range.

This is, usually, what is happening when we see the Market Ranging it's Institutional Money running Stops and Manipulating Price to Accumulate their Buy Orders.

When their Buy Orders are filled there will be no more Selling Volume left in the Market and Price will take off, as the Bullish Trend becomes obvious, to one and all, the Institutional Money will gladly Liquidate their Buy positions by Selling to you for their profit.

You might not understand all I've pointed out, above, but make it your mission to investigate Institutional Order Flow and don't be distracted by the candles you are seeing on the chart, this is a Facade look behind the candles and learn to Trade the Institutional Moneys Business Model you won't regret it.
  • #6
  • Edited 4:38pm Dec 17, 2015 3:09pm | Edited 4:38pm
Alright lets talk progress!
As for trading for today it hasn't been very fruitful. I only really saw one opportunity and it is still not closed. I may update this post to include it later since I don't like to leave trades overnight.
Here is the trade I did. It made 3$ profit. That means that I am now 3$ less in the negative numbers. No other trades happened today and yes at the moment i only trade the AUD-USD!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 3.png Size: 46 KB


The positive side about not leaving trades overnight is that I won't be laying in bed thinking "Is my trade doing good" "Was I right or wrong?" "What happened?". I will also be able to leave the previous day behind me and just focus on the present.
The negative side to that is that I may make less profit than I could have made.

I also read an article today regarding the moving of a stop loss to break even. I included the article in the first post under the resources section.

What do I feel right now?
I feel like a lot of information out there is chaotic and I can't help but wonder "What should I learn first?", "Where should I learn it?", "How should I learn it?"
I see courses out there but they are expensive like the trade empowered courses are 2000-4000$ which is a lot for me considering the fact that I live in poverty at the moment. Don't get me wrong though I'm not trying this to get rich I'm trying this to make it a job that I can do from home and make a living. I don't need 5k per month I honestly wouldn't know what to do with it and in the end I would probably give it to someone who need it more or to help my family.
I could learn everything myself without a teacher but I may learn things the wrong way or I may not learn certain things that I should learn, etc.

Quoting greatsky
Hi Antivi, How is your trading going? Have you done your backtesting on the file that I just give it to you? Do you have any question that I could help you with?
I still need to learn proper back testing and support and resistance so giving it a try will take some time. I did read it and I will try it out when the time comes.

About my questions:
I update my first post with questions on a regular basis so you can check those out there.


Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi AntiVi; I would encourage you to check out this thread by TRD http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=562581 it will save you a great deal of time in learning to Trade. Understand you are Trading in a Zero Sum Market, this means someone has to be on the other side of your Trade. It's important to think who's on the other side of your Trade because you want to be Trading with the Institutional Money and not against it. Institutional Money have a business model that they follow day after day Accumulation - Manipulation - Profit Run To Accumulate Orders they need Liquidity, if they are building Buy Orders they need Selling Volume to Buy into, (if they where to drop all their Buy Orders into the Market at once they would blast through the Order Book pushing the Market higher and higher as they get filled) they need this Selling Volume so they can fill their Buy Orders within a Range. This is, usually, what is happening when we see the Market Ranging it's Institutional Money running Stops and Manipulating Price to Accumulate their Buy Orders. When their Buy Orders are filled there will be no more Selling Volume left in the Market and Price will take off, as the Bullish Trend becomes obvious, to one and all, the Institutional Money will gladly Liquidate their Buy positions by Selling to you for their profit. You might not understand all I've pointed out, above, but make it your mission to investigate Institutional Order Flow and don't be distracted by the candles you are seeing on the chart, this is a Facade look behind the candles and learn to Trade the Institutional Moneys Business Model you won't regret it.
I will look into Institutional Order Flow as soon as I have some time free on my hands.
I will also check out the thread you linked I have it bookmarked!
Also thanks a lot for the reply and once I read it and look into it you will probably see a post of mine that includes my thoughts about it and see if I personally learned anything or if I think it is helpful.


Thanks
AntiVi
  • #7
  • Edited 3:39am Dec 18, 2015 3:15am | Edited 3:39am
Here we go guys!
AUD-USD

As you could see i did a trade yesterday that resulted in 3$ profit. My prediction was that the market was going to go up and I still think it will go up.
I closed my trade yesterday because I don't like leaving trades up overnight even though I was sure it was going to go up further and so it did.

It's pretty much moving in a channel now and there is no support down there and nothing indicating it's going to stay down there in my opinion.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 4.png Size: 47 KB



I would like to point out that I may be wrong and as said in the first post I am not a professional, full time, knowledgeable or even a profitable Forex trader at the moment so keep that in mind!

Any comments, tips and such are welcome regarding the analysis I'm doing.


Thank you
AntiVi
  • #8
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:07pm Dec 18, 2015 2:07pm
Alright here is an update!

I came to the conclusion that the market was moving in an upward channel and therefor I placed a buy order I actually placed 2 buy orders. Now this went immediately against me and the market broke the channel. However that did not change the fact that there was nothing keeping the market down there and everything I knew and drew pointed in it going back up. So I trusted my analysis and sat here watching the charts sweating my ass off hoping it would go back up and eventually it did.

Here is the result (27,7$ profit!):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 5.png Size: 70 KB


As for the thread you linked Stevepatt I started reading it and it became clear to me that there is a lot of information in there that could possibly be helpful but it's all over the place. Meaning that I will likely not get much out of the thread since I am still on the basics and trying to learn the first steps. Most topics that I read through were things I did not understand clearly or such.

Any comments or remarks are welcome!

Thank you
AntiVi
  • #9
  • Edited 3:20am Dec 19, 2015 3:03am | Edited 3:20am
What do we have today:
It seems the market totally broke the channel but it did go up which was pretty much what I predicted.
At the moment I see the previous resistance line turned into support and it failed to cross it meaning that my prediction for today is that the market is going up again. However there is a strong resistance line above the current market price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 6.png Size: 46 KB


Any comments or remarks are welcome!

Thank you
AntiVi
  • #10
  • Dec 19, 2015 9:52am Dec 19, 2015 9:52am
Quoting AntiVi
Don't get me wrong though I'm not trying this to get rich I'm trying this to make it a job that I can do from home and make a living.
Hi AntiVi,

Speculating the markets isn't something that you can expect to earn a stable income from. Its generally not advisable to risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Living off one's profits also detracts from the full potential of trading which is explosive compounded growth.
  • #11
  • Dec 19, 2015 4:38pm Dec 19, 2015 4:38pm
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Hi AntiVi, Speculating the markets isn't something that you can expect to earn a stable income from. Its generally not advisable to risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Living off one's profits also detracts from the full potential of trading which is explosive compounded growth.
Hey, Atokys

I completely agree with you there! However what would the point be in trading real money if you can't use your profits? Of course to be able to live off of your profits you will have to have a certain account size and profit to the point where you have money to keep growing your account and to actually live.
Lets just say I can get trough a month with 500$ if I had to.
Now my lifestyle is not expensive so for me living off of such a thing will be easier than someone with a family to provide for but I am just by myself.

I won't be risking anything I can't afford to lose but that doesn't mean that I want to lose it therefor I won't trade real money until I have the education and I have a profitable plan that works for me to be able to gain consistent profits and of course the confidence in my plan.

At this point it is all about learning, learning and learning.


Thanks for the reply!
AntiVi
  • #12
  • Dec 20, 2015 12:05am Dec 20, 2015 12:05am
I think you are on the right track.
As far as withdrawing profits is concerned. I agree that you should as soon as you have some consistency. What I do is withdraw 1/2 of any profit I make for the month. That way the account keeps growing and you give yourself a personal reward and motivation. Be careful of fees though. It costs me approx. $30 (Cdn) for wire transfers on each withdrawal, so there has to be enough profit to make it worthwhile.
I know you will make it.
  • #13
  • Dec 20, 2015 4:23pm Dec 20, 2015 4:23pm
Quoting profitkeeper
I think you are on the right track. As far as withdrawing profits is concerned. I agree that you should as soon as you have some consistency. What I do is withdraw 1/2 of any profit I make for the month. That way the account keeps growing and you give yourself a personal reward and motivation. Be careful of fees though. It costs me approx. $30 (Cdn) for wire transfers on each withdrawal, so there has to be enough profit to make it worthwhile. I know you will make it.
Hey Profitkeeper,

Thanks for letting me know about the fees since I did not think about that!
Personally I won't withdraw anything unless I absolutely have to. For now I can live without a Forex trading income which is also the reason why i can devote myself to it now. Now is the time to take the plunge.


Thanks for the reply!
AntiVi
  • #14
  • Dec 21, 2015 1:56pm Dec 21, 2015 1:56pm
A little update!
I predicted the market was going up and I placed a trade because of that. However the market is trading sideways at the moment.
Now I still made profit (6,50$) and I ended the trade since I won't be leaving it on overnight. I'd rather take my profits now and run than leave it running at night and possibly lose money. I probably did not get the most out of this trade but I'm tired and I'm having a rough time focusing so I am heading to bed!
I was also really worried about this trade since I placed it and the market went against me immediately and I was tempted to take my losses but I knew it was going up just like my analysis showed and it did. I'm surprised at the amount of effort it takes not to close a losing trade. I'm sure I will feel less pressured the more confidence I get in my trading though.
This trade is a trade I placed on Sunday evening as soon as the market opened. I'm not sure if it was a good idea or not. If someone wants to give me some insight on that that would be great!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 7.png Size: 73 KB


Now I will be removing the questions section from the main post and the learning section too since I will just post it in new posts whenever something changes.
Also is trading during this holiday period a good idea? At the moment I feel like the market has already slowed down.


Thanks for reading!
AntiVi
  • #15
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:38am Dec 22, 2015 2:38am
Good morning everybody!

Lets look at the chart!
So as I said yesterday I did not get the full effect of the trade which is ok. I closed the trade for a reason.
Now my prediction was right and it even went above my expectations! Now because it had such a bullish move I decided to put my RSI (Relative Strength Index) on on the values 70 and 30. 70 being overbought and 30 being oversold. I'm not sure if these values are good or not but hey I'm a rookie (almost typed wookie there).
If you look at it the market is currently overbought so we may see a reversal/retracement soon.
I will be keeping an eye open and we will see if we place a trade today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 8.png Size: 55 KB



Any comments are welcome!


Thanks for reading!
AntiVi
  • #16
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:36am Dec 22, 2015 10:36am
Update time!
So I got out of trade I was in since the market was going back to normal RSI levels. I made a small amount of profit (2,60$) and I did get out too early. I'm a rookie I will make mistakes.
I really feel like the market isn't moving like it usually does... When it gets overbought it usually has a steep bearish move however it only did a small bearish move. On top of that it double topped and it still didn't go lower in fact as soon as that one low point hits it seems to go up every single time and then down again. (Scalp heaven?) So right now I feel a little uncomfortable trading this since it seems unpredictable. Maybe I just got out of my position too early all together and it could drop now. I guess we will see!
Is it because of the holidays? Should I just not trade until the holidays are over?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 9.png Size: 66 KB


I'm also pretty happy that I haven't made a single loss in the last 5 trades! We're on a roll! Still trying to make up for my early idiotic losses! Still -52,21$.
Ever since I got some extra basic knowledge I've been having 9 positive trades and 3 negative ones and the negative ones were me just not trusting myself and my analysis. I think we're on the right track here!


Thanks for reading!
AntiVi
  • #17
  • Dec 23, 2015 11:37am Dec 23, 2015 11:37am
Another update!
Mistakes have been made! I got into a trade without a plan despite my earlier worries about this current period and how the market was behaving.
I made quite a loss and it was simply stupid of me. I think my stop loss was too tight as well since I couldn't resist the testing of the support.
Meaning it ended up getting triggered.
I think this is just me being impatient with the market. I want to trade, I want to get experience but making stupid mistakes was a result of that impatience.
I should simply not trade during this holiday period since it seems pretty bad.
There was also a bunch of news coming out which I didn't pay attention to.

I will make mistakes there is no doubt about that! But I need to make those mistakes and remember them. Learn from them.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 10.png Size: 69 KB



Thanks for reading!
AntiVi
  • #18
  • Dec 24, 2015 1:07am Dec 24, 2015 1:07am
Quoting AntiVi
Of course to be able to live off of your profits you will have to have a certain account size and profit to the point where you have money to keep growing your account and to actually live. Lets just say I can get trough a month with 500$ if I had to. Now my lifestyle is not expensive so for me living off of such a thing will be easier than someone with a family to provide for but I am just by myself. I won't be risking anything I can't afford to lose but that doesn't mean that I want to lose it therefor I won't trade real money until I have the...
The difference between compounding gains and not compounding gains is astounding but thats really up to you. Withdrawing profits is like a fisherman eating his own bait.

By the way, have you spoken to anyone who is successfully doing what you are hoping to achieve? Their experience could be useful to you.
  • #19
  • Dec 24, 2015 3:40am Dec 24, 2015 3:40am
I want to talk a little bit about yesterday.
So now that I've taken some time to sit back and relax I have looked at my trade from yesterday.
It wasn't a bad trade however it was executed wrong. My stop loss was too tight so I didn't keep in mind that that support could be tested.
If my stops were more lenient then it would have hit my take profit and I would have made 25$.
In the end it was a trade that I shouldn't have been in since I jumped in without a concrete plan. I wanted to be in a trade and I rushed it.
It wasn't as bad as I thought it was at first so lets hope I learn from this!

Now about today!
It seems like the market is overbought once again and it seems that it is struggling to climb higher so there may be a retracement or a bearish move on the way.
Let's be patient and see what happens! I doubt that I will get into a trade considering the time of the year and the market conditions but we will see!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade 11.png Size: 69 KB



Quoting Atokys
{quote} The difference between compounding gains and not compounding gains is astounding but that,s really up to you. Withdrawing profits is like a fisherman eating his own bait. By the way, have you spoken to anyone who is successfully doing what you are hoping to achieve? Their experience could be useful to you.
I completely agree with you however if you want to do this as a living you will have to withdraw money there is no doubt about that.
Even a fisherman has to sell his fish to live.
Right now I can survive without any money from trading and for the next year that will stay that way and it may even be extended beyond that. That will depend on me.
As long as I don't have to withdraw any money I won't that way my account can grow and grow and grow and hopefully grow big enough to the point where I can keep growing it and actually live from it too.
Of course these are hopes and dreams. The question is can I make them a reality.

I have spoken to a few professional traders mostly about the psychology part of it and the importance of a trading plan and the back testing of that plan. Most importantly if you have a plan that you know works. A plan that is testable and repeatable and that makes profit. Then you can execute that plan and if you execute that plan right without any dumb mistakes like getting greedy or impatient or getting into a trade you shouldn't be in like I did yesterday then you should be able to be a profitable trader.


Thanks for reading!
AntiVi
  • #20
  • Dec 25, 2015 8:56am Dec 25, 2015 8:56am
Update update update!
I was right about the retracement however I did not want to get into a trade since the market is not really moving that much because of the holidays.
Instead I will be working on expanding my knowledge base so I will tell you what I am learning about now.
Currently I am learning about the ABCD pattern and the Fibonacci extensions. As you noticed I have been using the retracements but not the extensions.

I am trying to get to a point where I can use multiple ways of technical analysis like support and resistance, ABCD pattern, chart reading basics and Fibonacci retracements and extensions to separate the high probability trades from the low probability ones so I can take my trading and become better and more profitable in it.

If I find any nice public information about the things I am learning about I will post this in the main post.

If you have any questions feel free to let me know! Don't be shy!


Thank you for reading!
AntiVi
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