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Reverse Engineering a Profitable System (REPS)

  • #301
  • Dec 23, 2015 1:32am Dec 23, 2015 1:32am
Quoting spyderman
Okay, So we have a bit of market movement going on and I have several positions running at BE or better. A few are getting into position to put some addon trades forward. In reviewing the thread it seems that I've deviated a bit in what I set out to do in respects to s/l trailing. I mentioned at the get go that I'd move my stop to BE at an "appropriate" time, but after getting taken out at BE a couple of times I started trailing. I just can't see the wisdom of allowing a trade to go over 100 pips in profit and not move to BE. So I'm reverting to...
Just letting you know that someone is reading your thread with interest.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #302
  • Dec 23, 2015 7:13am Dec 23, 2015 7:13am
Quoting spyderman
Let's hope the markets cooperate and start moving so we can test some of this out.
Consider running a backtest to save on time.
  • #303
  • Dec 23, 2015 7:16am Dec 23, 2015 7:16am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Just letting you know that someone is reading your thread with interest.
Welcome jmn. Hopefully things will liven up as the markets move in the New Year.
  • #304
  • Dec 23, 2015 7:17am Dec 23, 2015 7:17am
Quoting Atokys
{quote} Consider running a backtest to save on time.
Yes, I have backtested and that was basically the starting premise. It will/should perform nicely going forward but obviously requires a trending environment.
  • #305
  • Dec 23, 2015 8:15am Dec 23, 2015 8:15am
Quoting spyderman
{quote} Yes, I have backtested and that was basically the starting premise. It will/should perform nicely going forward but obviously requires a trending environment.
An extensive backtest should provide some indication of how the system fares in all environments. If it suffers too steep a drawdown when the market is ranging then this should be a cause for concern.
  • #306
  • Dec 24, 2015 12:45am Dec 24, 2015 12:45am
wow, around 70% drawdown......

appreciate your efforts spyderman.
but think you`re too focused on getting the right system for when the times are favourable.
but what about the times when there`s no trend? is a drawdown of 70% not crazy?

agree with atokys: in my opinion extensive backtests should have been done over the last 10 years to find a balance to minimize risk in ranging periods and to maximize profits in trending periods.

my preference is to enter a trade after a pull back and a continuation of the trend, not a breakout.
as we all know, price often comes back to the breakout area and even further.
if another pull back comes along further in the trend, add another trade when the trend resumes.
keep stacking until the trend runs out.

wishing everybody a merry Christmas and a very happy new year.
  • #307
  • Dec 25, 2015 8:57am Dec 25, 2015 8:57am
Quoting yonnie
wow, around 70% drawdown...... appreciate your efforts spyderman. but think you`re too focused on getting the right system for when the times are favourable. but what about the times when there`s no trend? is a drawdown of 70% not crazy? agree with atokys: in my opinion extensive backtests should have been done over the last 10 years to find a balance to minimize risk in ranging periods and to maximize profits in trending periods. my preference is to enter a trade after a pull back and a continuation of the trend, not a breakout. as we all know,...

Yes, you voiced those concerns back in October which I addressed in post #296. Thanks for the input.
  • #308
  • Dec 27, 2015 11:35pm Dec 27, 2015 11:35pm
A nice thread with some interesting details. But drawdown seems too much.
  • #309
  • Dec 29, 2015 6:36am Dec 29, 2015 6:36am
I now have 2nd addon positions opened on Aud/Cad and Nzd/Cad.
You'll notice the pips locked in are more than 50% due to minimum lot sizing increments but I'd rather have more floating profit locked than less.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADiDaily.png Size: 74 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADiDaily.png Size: 69 KB
  • #310
  • Dec 29, 2015 7:31am Dec 29, 2015 7:31am
Let hope these addon trades can really fly and you catch a few big trends in 2016.....
  • #311
  • Jan 5, 2016 11:00am Jan 5, 2016 11:00am
A/Cad and N/Cad entries have all closed at the 50% profit mark.
U/Cad 2nd addon entry has opened
  • #312
  • Jan 7, 2016 4:36pm Jan 7, 2016 4:36pm
2nd position on U/Cad has been moved to BE with about 100 pips floating profit. I'm leaving the s/l on the 1st entry where it was at about +350 pips.
Should we finally get a 3rd entry opportunity we will move the 2nd entry stop up even with the 3rd entry initial s/l. We will also move the 1st entry stop to the 2nd entry position. At that point we won't be moving the 1st entry stop until the daily channel catches it. You can see it following on the chart.
Might sound a bit confusing but we'll hopefully get to see in live if price keeps moving. Right now we're ahead of the bottom of the h4 channel as we moved to BE early, so we have to wait for that to catch up and pass us before placing a 3rd entry.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADiDaily.png Size: 54 KB
  • #313
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:12am Jan 8, 2016 5:12am
Hmmm... seems really Reversed expectation.
Will wait and see....
OOOH...., NO ONE TOUCH MY CABBAGES!!!!
  • #314
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:33am Jan 8, 2016 6:33am
Hello, very interesting method.
Can you give us to known, if you will see next signal fo entry?
I may compare it with my, whether I correctly understand your rules for entry.
Thanks.
  • #315
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:49am Jan 8, 2016 6:49am
Quoting piko
Hello, very interesting method. Can you give us to known, if you will see next signal fo entry? I may compare it with my, whether I correctly understand your rules for entry. Thanks.
If you look at the Trade Explorer you can see the pending orders and compare them to your own.
  • #316
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:40am Jan 8, 2016 7:40am
Quoting spyderman
{quote} If you look at the Trade Explorer you can see the pending orders and compare them to your own.
Hello spider, Please what is your latest setting for the channel indicator?
  • #317
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:44am Jan 8, 2016 7:44am
Quoting Samuelkanu
{quote} Hello spider, Please what is your latest setting for the channel indicator?

55 on the daily channel for initial series entry and exit.
20 on the H4 for initial s/l placement and trailing, however if I get a sizable move into profit (100+ pips) I'll move to BE.
  • #318
  • Jan 9, 2016 4:36am Jan 9, 2016 4:36am
Quoting spyderman
{quote} If you look at the Trade Explorer you can see the pending orders and compare them to your own.
very thanks...
  • #319
  • Jan 10, 2016 11:11am Jan 10, 2016 11:11am
Hello, Spiderman

I have qestion for you..
Did I identify correctly entry and exit point on the picture?

thanks for advise.
Attached Image
  • #320
  • Jan 10, 2016 1:42pm Jan 10, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting piko
Hello, Spiderman I have qestion for you.. Did I identify correctly entry and exit point on the picture? thanks for advise. {image}
Well, it's hard to say as I can't tell your time frame, pair traded or settings on your indicator. Having said that, our entry is on the Daily channel and our trailing stop is on the H4, at least for each position. Now for the series than our exit for the entire run would be on the same TF but in your example you would have been taken out on your H4 trail long before that point.

Give me some more details if you'd like.
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