More simple is impossible | Page 229 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

SIMPLE EA for a simple method needed!! 2 replies

Trading is this Simple? Finally Explained simple and clearly! 46 replies

More easy is impossible 17 replies

long-run profits impossible with short-term trading? 39 replies

Attachments: More simple is impossible
Exit Attachments

More simple is impossible

  • #4,561
  • Dec 22, 2015 8:54am Dec 22, 2015 8:54am
am long dax at 10470
  • #4,562
  • Dec 22, 2015 8:57am Dec 22, 2015 8:57am
Hi Friska, nice trades.
I just wonder what was your trigger to enter short the second time? Of course it was a profitable trade, following a short move, but I cannot find the reasoning of entering there other than "chasing price"

Many thankis for your inputs




Quoting friska
re short target {image} edit out@10400 {image}
  • #4,563
  • Dec 22, 2015 9:14am Dec 22, 2015 9:14am
It's been 2 weeks since I'm observing the price. I'm trying to find entry points mentally, and see how my position would do. For those with more experience, I have a question. Would you have taken this entry? I'm trying to figure this whole PA combined with indicators thing as I see great potential in it.

My reasoning behind the hypothetical long trade is that on the 10 points renko, the trend was climbing upwards with considerable dips. There was no warning divergence so everything looked good. On the 5 points renko, the Stochastic went OS than turned around while we had a supportive MACD divergence.

Any help is appreciated.

Regards
Balazs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 42 KB
Invincibility lies in the defence; the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #4,564
  • Dec 22, 2015 9:15am Dec 22, 2015 9:15am
close trade 10480
  • #4,565
  • Dec 22, 2015 9:15am Dec 22, 2015 9:15am
shortbdax 10460
  • #4,566
  • Dec 22, 2015 9:21am Dec 22, 2015 9:21am
Quoting bettervolume
shortbdax 10460
there is a structure...
be careful...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Schermata 2015-12-22 alle 16.21.20.png Size: 72 KB
nescentia necat
  • #4,567
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:22am Dec 22, 2015 10:22am
Quoting cfabian
Hi Friska, nice trades. I just wonder what was your trigger to enter short the second time? Of course it was a profitable trade, following a short move, but I cannot find the reasoning of entering there other than "chasing price" Many thankis for your inputs {quote}

hi cfabian,
i don't know what is 'chasing price' but i try to explain a little bit my reasoning...
I do not know if it's right but this was
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: attachment.png Size: 102 KB

1 price rally up touching the ,50 and TL after dbl btm. nice bear engulf and 1st short
2 TL reject the move up on .382 with big shadow...
3 big bear candle with min shadow break the main TL with a good accelleration... the bears still leads
4 pb test the main TL and boom
5 again big drop with a good acceleration
5 entry short 1:1 first target the main structure below. in late but with a good prob.
move SL @ be and hope for rally dwn again.
I hope this has been a minimum of help. at this time I have not renko chart and so I have to analyze in this way .
a major help would be what we all talk about here .
nescentia necat
  • #4,568
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:27am Dec 22, 2015 10:27am
Quoting dee50
Misterc and I were having a discussion via PM and I mentioned some thing that had influenced me and had helped put me on the course that I now follow..............
Great resource Dee. I had his site bookmarked and forgotten...I do have to focus more on patterns at SR and not get lost in particularities of each movement...

With that being said, I could really use your opinion on about this chart. I'll tell you my line of thought and if you could tell me how you see (would have seen things than) it would be very helpful. Hope I'm not bothering you too much, but I need to change my perspective on several matters.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ASK DEE...more things to point out on chart...multiple photos with left out of the eq..png Size: 40 KB


Point 1: The thick MA is the 100 EMA, it came in play as SR previously. Price hit it, started going up and made a 1-2-3. I would have bought as it breached the thin MA (50 EMA).

Point 2: This is where my brain goes into overdrive. 1-2-3 could fail, Stochs start downward cycle, what if this will be a 2nd move lower and point 2 is the beginning of it.

Point 3: If I sold at point 2 I would feel silly because 1-2-3 seems back on now. If I would have traded Point 1 and 2 I would have been "whipsawed" for nothing. Confidently buy at point 3...and...I probably end up with a BE or small loss.

Point 3.5: Between point 3 and 4 there is a small 1-2-3 that comes off the 62% fib retracement (placed on the last leg down); no trade because it's close to SR...good decision.

Point 4: Initial 1-2-3 still valid, Stochs is on board, it's long...until...another BE. Now divergence is forming.

Point 5: Sell seems risky. SR underneath. If I would have sold the break of MA 100, again, BE or rather small loss.

Point 6: Safer short, Stochs hidden divergence (I haven't marked it), Stochs downward cycle from R area.

Point 7: Divergences, S area, Stochs on board ... long.

How would you have seen this Dee? Do you think I should have waited for divergences, and only trade them? If you're going to ask me what was the higher TF doing...if I over complicate things on one TF, my brain would melt with 2 ). Would you perhaps consider only the longs since the 100 MA looks like a strong SR? Do you think I place too much emphasis on price and to little on SRs?

I would like to know how you would have handled this. I know it's hindsight but...could you please have a go at it. Thanks.
  • #4,569
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:35am Dec 22, 2015 10:35am
Quoting friska
{quote} i'll do some exercise about, today long eurgbp {image} and short gbpusd {image}
Meanwhile..
target reached
eurgbp gbpusd but holding pos
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Schermata 2015-12-22 alle 17.36.04.png Size: 115 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Schermata 2015-12-22 alle 17.37.02.png Size: 82 KB
nescentia necat
  • #4,570
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:44am Dec 22, 2015 10:44am
Quoting MisterC
{quote} Great resource Dee. I had his site bookmarked and forgotten...I do have to focus more on patterns at SR and not get lost in particularities of each movement... With that being said, I could really use your opinion on about this chart. I'll tell you my line of thought and if you could tell me how you see (would have seen things than) it would be very helpful. Hope I'm not bothering you too much, but I need to change my perspective on several matters. {image} Point 1: The thick MA is the 100 EMA, it came in play as SR previously. Price hit...
yeah!!
MisterC welcome back mate!!!!
glad to see you here again!
nescentia necat
  • #4,571
  • Dec 22, 2015 10:55am Dec 22, 2015 10:55am
Quoting friska
{quote} yeah!! MisterC welcome back mate!!!! glad to see you here again!
Thanks mate, good to see you too. This time I'm staying.

I realized (actually Dee pointed it out) that the reason I was unable to trade renkos is because when I was on time charts I was over analyzing, focusing too much on PA particularities. When I switched to a simplistic chart like renko and was unable to see every tiny detail, I did not know how to trade them...and the problem was that even after learning loads from this thread my general performance did not improved by much using time chart. But...now I'm here to get back to the basics...I won't be able to over analyze renkos and I'll be forced to look at price from a different perspective. So ... I'm glad to be here
  • #4,572
  • Dec 22, 2015 12:27pm Dec 22, 2015 12:27pm
Quoting friska
re short target {image} edit out@10400 {image}
Congratz! As I said once.. I love your top noch quality analysis... And this still hold.

I stucked on level -100 so this is my version of your chart...I call it .. easy peasy version. Coz that's max I'm willin and able to make! I deleted fibs coz it looked like spider's den.

Anyway I love your trades.. Wish you had more time and will to do your own topic even private! I don'T care! I'd suscribe in a minute. And even if you don't plan I hope you'll post your TF charts from time to time! :]]

Quoting MisterC
{quote} Thanks mate, good to see you too. This time I'm staying. I realized (actually Dee pointed it out) that the reason I was unable to trade renkos is because when I was on time charts I was over analyzing, focusing too much on PA particularities. When I switched to a simplistic chart like renko and was unable to see every tiny detail, I did not know how to trade them...and the problem was that even after learning loads from this thread my general performance did not improved by much using time chart. But...now I'm here to get back to the basics...I...
Glad to see you back! I'd say I'll miss your overanalyzed charts! But .. on the other hand.. You'll have more time to nonoveranalyze renko charts. So who cares Bring it on!

And for those who would like to point out to my spam message... These are my trades for today... +52 for those who like to count pips/points.

legend
purple arrow buy/sell to S/R
blue star too soon BE

Any other remarks are more than wellcome..!

Green pips/points and Merry Christmas to everyone =D
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: max.png Size: 59 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GE30M5422.12.2015.png Size: 59 KB
  • #4,573
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:00pm Dec 22, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting MisterC
{quote} Thanks mate, good to see you too. This time I'm staying. I realized (actually Dee pointed it out) that the reason I was unable to trade renkos is because when I was on time charts I was over analyzing, focusing too much on PA particularities. When I switched to a simplistic chart like renko and was unable to see every tiny detail, I did not know how to trade them...and the problem was that even after learning loads from this thread my general performance did not improved by much using time chart. But...now I'm here to get back to the basics...I...
MisterC, very nice analysis !!! Last 2-3 weeks I do the same analysis for entries Everything makes sense, as in your under-comment note is wrote. Mainly, I found out, that price cycles are very useful, but only as a TP planner. Entries must be based on PA, always... Okay, cycles are patterns, too, they are 123, double bottom/tops and so on, but remember that indicators are behind PA, because lags.

If I should give only one advice to everyone who does not care about difficult analysis, long term analysis and so on - take only 123 pattern + divergences as your entry signal and scalp, or do RRR 1:2, 1:3... Especially the 1-2-3 patterns with 50% retracement have a very high Win Ratio.
  • #4,574
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:06pm Dec 22, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting Matomi
{quote} MisterC, very nice analysis !!! Last 2-3 weeks I do the same analysis for entries Everything makes sense, as in your under-comment note is wrote. Mainly, I found out, that price cycles are very useful, but only as a TP planner. Entries must be based on PA, always... Okay, cycles are patterns, too, they are 123, double bottom/tops and so on, but remember that indicators are behind PA, because lags. If I should give only one advice to everyone who does not care about difficult analysis, long term analysis and so on - take only 123 pattern...
The thing is...I don't think my analysis was great. I think it's over analyzing and I need to simplify things. When I started trading I thought the more I know the better I'll do and now I must unlearn some of the BS that makes me overdo it...I need some balance in filtering. For now I will focus on divergences and 123s when it comes to reversals and on breakout-PB-run when it comes to price breaking above, below a SR...seems simpler... Thanks for the advice.
  • #4,575
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:24pm Dec 22, 2015 1:24pm
GER30+2+46+153+26+74+63+77. For those of you asking questions, rather than answer each one individually, I am answering by presenting my trades for today, One important difference between your charts and mine, my chart is a 10 pip Renko, entries were tuned on the 5 pip but the decision to trade was taken on the 10 pip. I only had 7 decisions to make all day, it would only have been 6 if it was not for the BE on the first trade. After the last trade I went out to do some shopping.

Now I have to cook supper.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30+2+46+153+26+74+63+77 221215.png Size: 64 KB
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #4,576
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:28pm Dec 22, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting dee50
GER30+2+46+153+26+74+63+77. For those of you asking questions, rather than answer each one individually, I am answering by presenting my trades for today, One important difference between your charts and mine, my chart is a 10 pip Renko, entries were tuned on the 5 pip but the decision to trade was taken on the 10 pip. I only had 7 decisions to make all day, it would only have been 6 if it was not for the BE on the first trade. After the last trade I went out to do some shopping. Now I have to cook supper. {image}
Do you usually make decisions only on the 10 pip chart and fine tune them on the 5 pip?? Or do you also exclusively trade the 5 pip?

As usual, thanks for posting your charts!
  • #4,577
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:33pm Dec 22, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting MisterC
{quote} The thing is...I don't think my analysis was great. I think it's over analyzing and I need to simplify things. When I started trading I thought the more I know the better I'll do and now I must unlearn some of the BS that makes me overdo it...I need some balance in filtering. For now I will focus on divergences and 123s when it comes to reversals and on breakout-PB-run when it comes to price breaking above, below a SR...seems simpler... Thanks for the advice.
You are absolutely right. At one point I was the cleverest most knowledgeable trader that there was, if there had been a Trivial Pursuit game for trading I would have wiped the floor with every one, there was only one thing, I couldn't trade to save my life. Now I have become an Analytical and Technical Retard, I am profitable.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #4,578
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:37pm Dec 22, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting MisterC
{quote} Do you usually make decisions only on the 10 pip chart and fine tune them on the 5 pip?? Or do you also exclusively trade the 5 pip? As usual, thanks for posting your charts!
Now that I have stopped messing around with scalps, I am back to making decisions off the 10 pip, it is only when volatility is so low that even on the 10 pip it is difficult to see any thing that I would drop down to the 5 pip, but then, if it is that bad should I actually be trading, some times the lust for pips can get you into trouble much like the other lust.

EDIT. I must just remind you, on the other threads I was on, I took my signals off the 1 hr and tuned them up on the 15 minute chart, I have traded like this for years, just look back in this thread it was the same. For some reason the recent journey into scalping has every one thinking that we are trading off the 3 and 5 pip charts, some one even had a 1 pip chart, the earlier lessons seem to have been forgotten.
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #4,579
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:55pm Dec 22, 2015 1:55pm
Quoting dee50
{quote} Now that I have stopped messing around with scalps, I am back to making decisions off the 10 pip, it is only when volatility is so low that even on the 10 pip it is difficult to see any thing that I would drop down to the 5 pip, but then, if it is that bad should I actually be trading, some times the lust for pips can get you into trouble much like the other lust. EDIT. I must just remind you, on the other threads I was on, I took my signals off the 1 hr and tuned them up on the 15 minute chart, I have traded like this for years, just look...
I do know that...on the 123 revisited you traded with H1->M15, sometimes M5 and here with 10pip->3/5 pip bricks. I just wanted to know if you stray away from the higher / lower TFs; sometimes you post only 5 pip renko, sometimes only 10. Well, thank you for clearing that up. I'm of to the drawing board, next stop: technical retard, but more profitable

Buen apetit!
  • #4,580
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:37pm Dec 22, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting nuckern
{quote} Congratz! As I said once.. I love your top noch quality analysis... And this still hold. I stucked on level -100 so this is my version of your chart...I call it .. easy peasy version. Coz that's max I'm willin and able to make! I deleted fibs coz it looked like spider's den. Anyway I love your trades.. Wish you had more time and will to do your own topic even private! I don'T care! I'd suscribe in a minute. And even if you don't plan I hope you'll post your TF charts from time to time! :]] {quote} Glad to see you...

biiiiiig thanks buddy!!!
really appriciate your words!!
... I write what I see here, or most of it,
trying to share with my traveling companions my views, growing together, trying to help if I can as others have done with me ...
really your words honor me, and I think this is the only right place to share.
otherwise it would not be interesing ...
and then you can add ... take the reproaches of the master!!
where could I have this pleasure ...

again thanks mate!
nescentia necat
2 traders viewing now