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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,541
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:29am Dec 18, 2015 11:29am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} There are no options on UGAZ....it's crazy to short a buck-fifty etf...
It's crazy to short anything at $1.50, I agree... But that shit was $3 a few weeks ago. But, I was talking about the trend of the mofo... Sometimes I think about general trend in almost all commodities... Like - maybe I am on wrong market. While I fuck around with indices and stocks - there you have long term down trend and basically you just short the rips. Look at gas, copper, gold... you go with the flow.

I would like to get that flow, that trend on indices next year... can I get that for Christmas, pleaseeeeeee dear Santa...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,542
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:13pm Dec 18, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting The Fool
well if US indices would follow thru tomorrow I still may have a chance to make good money on VXX Dec/Jan call spreads.....prolly vain to expect they will pick a direction and stay with it for more than a day, though.....been a roller coaster ride lately but if you zoom out, the shit is still flatlining.
cashed out of all VXX Dec/Jan calls calendars, typically for around $0.35-$0.40 net gain, a little more than net 2-baggy. Got tired of watching them bounce up/down, at one point some were in deeper profit. Hanging on to UVXY otm calls flys, those are in small profit - maybe we can get some persistant elevated ^vix, we'll see. Some flys were in nice (3-4x) profit earlier, when the b/e's were further out & when we had ^vix spiking before the FOMC, but I decided to wait......idk, I should've at least taken half off.........greed....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,543
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:31pm Dec 18, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting The Fool
not 11c, but trying a fill at 15c....
USO Apr calls fly above would have filled @ 15c, but I changed it down to 13c - no fills. I did fill some SVXY Jan/Jan4 $65 calls calendars @ 18c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,544
  • Dec 18, 2015 9:16pm Dec 18, 2015 9:16pm
if I can get in cheap I will shoot short vol flies m/l continuously
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,545
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:25pm Dec 18, 2015 10:25pm
UNG has fallen from $10-$11, just needs some winter to grind back up there
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,546
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:48pm Dec 18, 2015 10:48pm
what goes down must come back up

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truly-...123043277.html
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,547
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:24pm Dec 18, 2015 11:24pm
bfly adjustments
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...5?locale=en-US
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,548
  • Dec 19, 2015 9:22am Dec 19, 2015 9:22am
Quoting The Fool
UNG has fallen from $10-$11, just needs some winter to grind back up there
El Ninyo says no .... map is Feb-Apr, orange temps warmer than normal....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,549
  • Dec 19, 2015 9:35am Dec 19, 2015 9:35am
UWTI, 3x long wti, no options
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,550
  • Dec 19, 2015 10:29pm Dec 19, 2015 10:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} El Ninyo says no .... map is Feb-Apr, orange temps warmer than normal.... {image}
Natty gas is the kid in the back seat repeatedly saying "Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?" Drove me about as bonkers as /CL ... .

* * *

Out of my P short strangle for 50% max ... . Got a little concerned there after it spiked following Copyright Royalty Board ruling ... . It's the old "it's not as bad as it could have been" bounce ... .

Last earnings play of the year for me: NKE ... . Looks like it'll be a 1.00 credit plus, even going iron condor on it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,551
  • Dec 19, 2015 10:32pm Dec 19, 2015 10:32pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} SUNE UP 100% from its 11/19 2.55 bottom (now at 6.25) ... . I had a covered call on in SUNE that I bailed on today ... . Wonder if I should have a second go at it (got a little frisky with my short call). I mean, .92 for the 6.5 short call -- are you kidding me: {image}
Went for a fill on this covered call, but didn't get filled and wasn't going to chase (broke 6.50 on Friday) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,552
  • Dec 19, 2015 11:05pm Dec 19, 2015 11:05pm
Quoting The Fool
bfly adjustments https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...5?locale=en-US
Good segment ... .

Another one on poor man's covered calls, which are basically just "uber" diagonals ... . https://www.dough.com/blog/poor-mans-covered-call

I may try a couple of these as long-term, background setups in index ETF's, since you basically just manage the short call ... . I imagine there's additional savings as compared to dicking around going in and out of iron condors in terms of fees and commissions since you have a very long-term long call (which you basically just leave alone for a substantial period of time) and then a single short option ... . (And for some reason, the light bulb just came on for me with respect to diagonals ... . Sometimes I get to stuff in a roundabout way ... .)

The trade off between this kind of setup and the IC is that, as TF has repeatedly mentioned, you do end up paying buying power-wise for that uber long duration back month ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,553
  • Dec 19, 2015 11:28pm Dec 19, 2015 11:28pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Good segment ... . Another one on poor man's covered calls, which are basically just "uber" diagonals ... . https://www.dough.com/blog/poor-mans-covered-call I may try a couple of these as long-term, background setups in index ETF's, since you basically just manage the short call ... . I imagine there's additional savings as compared to dicking around going in and out of iron condors in terms of fees and commissions since you have a very long-term long call (which you basically just leave alone for a substantial period of time)...
For example, this 180 day+ back month setup is going to tie up $2880 of buying power to put on:

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... with the suggested "take profit" at 1/2 the value of the short call -- .5 x 4.19 = 2.10 or $210 .... . I don't know if that's long-term good or bad; most of the index ETF iron condors that I have recently put on are for $1.00 credit+, and I look for 50% max profit on those (i.e., .50 or $50/contract), but I need VIX at 25+ to get a 1.00 out of those and this past year, VIX + 25 has been hard to come by ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,554
  • Dec 20, 2015 12:33am Dec 20, 2015 12:33am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
And for some reason, the light bulb just came on for me with respect to diagonals ... . Sometimes I get to stuff in a roundabout way ... .) The trade off between this kind of setup and the IC is that, as TF has repeatedly mentioned, you do end up paying buying power-wise for that uber long duration back month ... .
I keep thinking I might see a market in my lifetime (omg what's left of it) that will make some good moves, so I have been seeing diagonals and long-dated calendars etc as ways to buy in to simple long options sets that will go deep deep itm. That's all I'm really asking for - just a few trades a year that make insane profits - gimme some 20-50 lot shots at like $10-$20 itm or better. Can I get a witness? Slogging thru the shit week in week out for a bunch of $0.25 winners is for the birds.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,555
  • Dec 20, 2015 12:53am Dec 20, 2015 12:53am
HYG didn't exist before the ZIRP....unbelievable.....anyway I wonder if the HYG slide is not only a result of the hiyield liquidity jitters but also something more persistent as the Fed brings the ffr up....?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,556
  • Dec 20, 2015 12:59am Dec 20, 2015 12:59am
Quoting StrayDog
Look at gas, copper, gold... you go with the flow. I would like to get that flow, that trend on indices next year... can I get that for Christmas, pleaseeeeeee dear Santa...
Don't worry StrayDog, 2016 is going to be a great year.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,557
  • Dec 20, 2015 1:06am Dec 20, 2015 1:06am
a recovery into the mid-$80's....the key to tamping down the hiyield tiz is an oil rally
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,558
  • Dec 20, 2015 2:39am Dec 20, 2015 2:39am
hey, look a dubbabubbafly.....man, my broker loves me....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,559
  • Dec 20, 2015 3:10am Dec 20, 2015 3:10am
Quoting The Fool
man, my broker loves me...
tired of paying big comms on spreads? well, just go long VIX puts whenever there's a ^VIX spike - you can track the change in price for any option from the day they were born til the day they die, the VIX Feb $14 puts shown below - 10c is the bottom
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,560
  • Dec 20, 2015 3:26am Dec 20, 2015 3:26am
USO Apr $14 calls could go back to $2, sitting at 22c now
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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