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  • #1,061
  • Dec 18, 2015 9:42am Dec 18, 2015 9:42am
Quoting michaelion
{quote} nice, this UJ bought after false break of USD session, sorry EU session? why did close right there?
I reset the TP as shown...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,062
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:02am Dec 18, 2015 10:02am
Quoting juriFX
EURJPY 1H and 5m (x-ray view) {image} {image} EURJPY 1H and 5m (x-ray view) {image} {image} EURJPY 1H and 5m (x-ray view) {image} {image} Is this what's all about? hope I didn't reveal too much
​
Lol, there are no secrets in trading. Problem is that most of the people believe there are some. And these people fail in trading, because they think trading is about knowing some tricks, which they can apply and get immediate results.
What I am trying to do is help traders move their brains and discover their niche.

About what you shared has nothing to do with my question. You showed an example of a stop hunt, where we know after the fact that it was a stop hunt. But it could have been a market structure break and your stop would be hit in that case. Why it worked in retrace is because price went to liquidity area, where buying/selling occurred. This would have worked or not regardless of the stop hunt.

TRD
  • #1,063
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:21am Dec 18, 2015 10:21am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} Ouh l l .... sssshhhtttt {image}
Very nice........ still have no idea how are u doing this... entries... but congrats
  • #1,064
  • Dec 18, 2015 10:42am Dec 18, 2015 10:42am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} ​ Lol, there are no secrets in trading. Problem is that most of the people believe there are some. And these people fail in trading, because they think trading is about knowing some tricks, which they can apply and get immediate results. What I am trying to do is help traders move their brains and discover their niche. About what you shared has nothing to do with my question. You showed an example of a stop hunt, where we know after the fact that it was a stop hunt. But it could have been a market structure break and your stop would...


Well, I thought your questions where:


Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} No, thats a correct answer and a good fondation for stop hunt analysis. Now comes the hardest part. Which highs and lows? TRD

Quoting TheRealDeal
Owned, haha! Its not that important where exactly to enter. Your question should be: why did you anticipate that the previous high will hold? And why they didn't stop run it? {quote}

Quoting TheRealDeal
Sure, stop area on HTF gives bigger reaction because it is different scale. Pretend you are allowed to trade only 1 TF. So you don't have the scalability of the market. You should make money just on that one TF. So why some stop hunts give bigger reaction than others on the same TF? Because there are more stops and more positions in opposite direction can be accumulated. But why there are so many stops? What is different this time? Sounds like the people feel very comfortable putting their stops there. Why? That is the million dollar question ...
and

Quoting TheRealDeal
Wherever next significant move will occur, will be a place there significant stop hunt occurred TRD {quote}
So my best guess is that there are more stops when we have a trending market (HHs, LHs or LLs, LHs) because traders tend to place stops just below the most recent structure (high or low). Once a stop hunt occurred and price returns to this area without making a decent move in the opposite direction for a nice payoff, then the ITs have to protect that position, hence those S/D zones have a higher probability of holding price.

Sure some losses are inevitable, but if you pick good 4H/1H swing pivots in a trending market then there also a good probability for a stop hunt. Also watching price action (pins) can give some clues.

TRD, would be great if you could explain why this has nothing to do with your question.
Maybe this is completely wrong. What are you seeing that we don't see?
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #1,065
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:08am Dec 18, 2015 11:08am
wonder if GJ will survive....would be nice if it will...
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #1,066
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:33am Dec 18, 2015 11:33am
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  • #1,067
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:52am Dec 18, 2015 11:52am
Quoting michaelion
{image}
everything aside, i love your template.
  • #1,068
  • Dec 18, 2015 12:03pm Dec 18, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting kwonkicker
{quote} everything aside, i love your template.
Here you go mate...
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  • #1,069
  • Dec 18, 2015 2:10pm Dec 18, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting juriFX
{quote} Well, I thought your questions where: {quote} {quote} {quote} and {quote} So my best guess is that there are more stops when we have a trending market (HHs, LHs or LLs, LHs) because traders tend to place stops just below the most recent structure (high or low). Once a stop hunt occurred and price returns to this area without making a decent move in the opposite direction for a nice payoff, then the ITs have to protect that position, hence those S/D zones have a higher probability of holding price. Sure some losses are inevitable, but if...
I see what you mean. So you believe that most of the stop are placed on the recent swing? These guys must be shaking because any spike can take them out. Do they feel comfortable when price is dancing nearby? I don't think so.​
Come on. Think.

TRD
  • #1,070
  • Dec 19, 2015 3:43am Dec 19, 2015 3:43am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} I see what you mean. So you believe that most of the stop are placed on the recent swing? These guys must be shaking because any spike can take them out. Do they feel comfortable when price is dancing nearby? I don't think so.​ Come on. Think. TRD

Hi TRD;

If you are a long term Trader then, to feel safe, you are going to put your Stop where you think the Market has no chance of returning to before your profit target is reached.

Does the D1 chart, below, show Stops being hunted on a bigger scale? The spike up during August saw the Market pass through, what could be considered, safe Stop Levels, what i don't understand though is why they would leave their stops there when they could see the Market targeting their Stops.

The Market has been falling again since August 24th and the process repeats itself again.

Was the spike up on Dec 3rd just to take out Stop Levels in order to Accumulate new positions??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 19th dec 15 EUR:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 149 KB
  • #1,071
  • Dec 19, 2015 7:53am Dec 19, 2015 7:53am
Hi Stevepatt,

Nice grah and question .... but why do you need to be safe on every entry ?
I see about 4 opportunities to get in with tight SL, which will give you amazing R > 5 like TRD posted.

A pertfectly safe SL, would mean a terrible R, isn't it ?
the market is not random but anything can happen.
  • #1,072
  • Dec 19, 2015 8:39am Dec 19, 2015 8:39am
Quoting vspatrick
Hi Stevepatt, Nice grah and question .... but why do you need to be safe on every entry ? I see about 4 opportunities to get in with tight SL, which will give you amazing R > 5 like TRD posted. A pertfectly safe SL, would mean a terrible R, isn't it ?
Hi vspatrick;

What I'm trying to work out is who would leave their Stops, where they thought they would be safe, and then stand by as the Market took them out. I've used a D1 chart because it's easier to see.

As TRD says it's a matter of scale the EUR/USD H1 Chart, below, shows it on an H1 scale.

I guess, it depends on the type of Trading you are doing, if you are like "cold chisel" and attempting to build an "Equity Millipede" you will leave your Stops at Break Even and let the Market take you out and hope that some of your positions survive.

If you are a, higher TF, Swing Trader you will trail your Stop from Swing Point to Swing Point and wait for the Market to take you out.

If, like here on this thread, we are Trading from a smaller TF our Stop tolerance is far lower as we Trade from one Liquidity Pool to the next on our chosen TF.
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  • #1,073
  • Dec 19, 2015 4:05pm Dec 19, 2015 4:05pm
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi TRD; If you are a long term Trader then, to feel safe, you are going to put your Stop where you think the Market has no chance of returning to before your profit target is reached. Does the D1 chart, below, show Stops being hunted on a bigger scale? The spike up during August saw the Market pass through, what could be considered, safe Stop Levels, what i don't understand though is why they would leave their stops there when they could see the Market targeting their Stops. The Market has been falling again since August 24th and the process...
Naturally as time passes and certain level is not tested for a while, traders start to believe it won't be tested any time soon. You have also many bank and funds which are long term placed. They sell all the way up to previous highs because they have to deploy such a huge amount of money. They don't have to luxury we have to trade tops and bottoms. So imagine the drawdown they have to stomach, when trading like that. And imagine how long they have to wait until price turns in their direction and covers the drawdown. They deploy like 500 positions in the range of 1000 pips let's say. So they sell all the way up to that previous swing high. When swong high is reached they stop and wait price to reverse. At that time they are in huge drawdown. Where are the stops of all these positions. Probably at the that swing high. Because that all they can afford to lose let's say. After that they have to wait until price comes down to give them profits. And are 300 pips enough? What do you think? No, they will still be in loss. So they expect at least 500 hypothetically. Think about banks at the same time. They want to sell huge too, but they need liquidity. They can push price up using cheap tricks like news and spread manipulation to run the stops of our sample hedge funds and to sell same size but at the top .
  • #1,074
  • Dec 19, 2015 4:07pm Dec 19, 2015 4:07pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Naturally as time passes and certain level is not tested for a while, traders start to believe it won't be tested any time soon. You have also many bank and funds which are long term placed. They sell all the way up to previous highs because they have to deploy such a huge amount of money. They don't have to luxury we have to trade tops and bottoms. So imagine the drawdown they have to stomach, when trading like that. And imagine how long they have to wait until price turns in their direction and covers the drawdown. They deploy like 500...
That wasn't the answer I expected but at least we clarified some things
  • #1,075
  • Dec 19, 2015 8:28pm Dec 19, 2015 8:28pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Naturally as time passes and certain level is not tested for a while, traders start to believe it won't be tested any time soon. You have also many bank and funds which are long term placed. They sell all the way up to previous highs because they have to deploy such a huge amount of money. They don't have to luxury we have to trade tops and bottoms. So imagine the drawdown they have to stomach, when trading like that. And imagine how long they have to wait until price turns in their direction and covers the drawdown. They deploy like 500...
I wonder what happens to those institutions that got the price up o a certain point, they are in a drawdown of hundreds of pips, but the price doesn't reverse it goes up into no mans land. Do thee institutions receive a margin call or go broke if they cannot afford to stay in the position any longer or they have to close ASAP driving the price even higher?
  • #1,076
  • Dec 19, 2015 8:53pm Dec 19, 2015 8:53pm
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} I wonder what happens to those institutions that got the price up o a certain point, they are in a drawdown of hundreds of pips, but the price doesn't reverse it goes up into no mans land. Do thee institutions receive a margin call or go broke if they cannot afford to stay in the position any longer or they have to close ASAP driving the price even higher?
Those institutions that know what they are doing will be hedged in other markets to limit their exposure and those that don't, well, they don't last a long time.
  • #1,077
  • Dec 20, 2015 4:29pm Dec 20, 2015 4:29pm
Macaque with Iphone + middle finger....hmm...that reminds me of someone here.....
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #1,078
  • Dec 20, 2015 4:36pm Dec 20, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting Fxentropy
Macaque with Iphone + middle finger....hmm...that reminds me of someone here..... {image}
LOL
  • #1,079
  • Dec 21, 2015 7:10am Dec 21, 2015 7:10am
Gold
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  • #1,080
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:53am Dec 21, 2015 10:53am
Quoting toppo qqq
Gold {image}
Nice toppo... looks like everyone are went for Christmas Holidays....
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