The One: Price Action and Reaction

have pending short @.72917 w/ very tight sl

To B/E on EUR trade - possibly a bit early but I have to pop out for an hour. Price seems to be struggling at these lows although last bar pushed higher and closed back on it's low which seems hopeful. Should we break those lows I think we'll see a good move down but it's a big news day so we might see nothing at all until after that.

Closed trade for a few pips profit - probably should never have entered this today due to FOMC news later in the day.

in front of FOMC no tading yet - for me

Something else I was watching yesterday. I marked in the red arrow before we got there and had imagined a stop below the lows to the left of the arrow. Not sure I could really call that a swing. Green lines drawn off 'V' formation seemed to work well and the confluence of those lines and a retest of the ML seemed like an idea

euraud H1

EURGBP H1 update

yellow parallels works well so far , hope not only for me ( pic1) like it should , if its permitted to say so



yellow lines changed to new fork , bounce at median and half number,
Is this fork is in play ?

EURUSD H1 update

new fork and channel working for me

After all its wild swings during the FED news yesterday price seemed to end up pretty much where it had been before the news (much sound and fury signifying nothing) and then wandered on to reach the target I'd originally set for my trade yesterday - a bit frustrating but I knew the news was coming so hey ho.

Anyway looking at the chart this morning it's interesting to see where the spike to the upside ran out of steam. Sometimes I'm tempted, for the purposes of drawing, to ignore the mad moves that news produces but in this instance the extent of them seems to have some logic to it; Bouncing around at the lows my trade was struggling with and running out of steam to the upside at the level at which price had failed in it's last upswing. I don't have anything to do with that information but it seemed like an interesting observation.

Won't be about tomorrow to watch this live but I'd fancy getting long if price retested the ML in the area of the grey box.

For explanation on 2d and 3d you can start with these articles

http://www.medianline.com/articles/H...%20Reading.pdf

http://www.medianline.com/articles/I...20of%20Gas.pdf

They go into detail about how to see diagonally, and knowing when i trade is running out of gas.

Yes you are correct, also you could have drawn a new down fork as price started to wobble and make new 3d lows in the fork. That is what I am talking about.

Thank you Kapital for stopping by. I know a lot of people know me for posting in the Median Line Thread. I found sometimes that there was bickering over very minor things. I want this to be a place where I can post my charts and we can work together on the major pairs to trade if that is possible. Also this can be a place where we can post new ideas, and to eventually become better together. Kapital feel free to post your charts, they are very good, and even your fork ideas. Cheers!

This is a very good chart. Guys look at this example, price may react in the box where he is talking about if price continues to fall.

I am a bit sick this week, please continue to share and post together.

These are the things to consider when drawing your lines

1. Where is the most recent support and resistance area?

2. Which lines can I keep and which can I take away. Keep your charts clean. Use only the lines that are important.

3. Consider where stop loss orders are, and where take profit areas are. The posts of StevePratt took this into perspective. If a 4h median line is working then you can think how can you enter? Do not switch yet to different time frames to try to enter. Multiple timeframes are more advanced and a bit more difficult when drawing diagonal lines aka trendlines medianlines etc.

4. Go back at least 2 chart spaces and draw swings and support resistance from the past to see how the market is flowing. Do this every day. Every day create new charts, unless you are in a position.

5. Take your time and relax for your entries, and do not force them.

6. Use appropriate stop loss values below/above major recent swings to hide your stops.

7. Always remember to target a minimum of 3:1 per trade.

I drew up this chart to show how support resistance and pitchforks interact with each other on a 4h chart. The red arrows are where price is reacting to a support or resistance area, the green arrows are where price is reacting to a pitchfork. You can begin to see that price confluences often happen where the meeting of lines occur, and also that support and resistance often form a pivot A, B, or C.

Notice also that the level are near psych levels of 00, 25, 50, and 75.

Another example on the USDCHF

Thanks for this - my weekend reading.

B.

my EURJPY H1

Updated analysis of this chart. I posted the last chart at 9.30 last night and a closer look would have changed my view somewhat. I would probably have passed on this for a number of reasons.
1. Its Friday and my trade rules don't allow me to place short term trades on a Friday.
2. For an idea like this to work I'd want to see price come down and head straight back up again - no retests - I want it to look like a wash, so my orders would need to be in the market waiting for the move lower and right now I've yet to develop the confidence in my work to want to trade like that.
3. For an entry like that the only logical place to leave a stop is below the lows marked with red arrows on the chart below and the R:R doesn't really work with that. (a stop below the low marked by the 1st red arrow wouldn't have been hit at time of writing (2.20 gmt), it would have been close but price is now back above where I'd have wanted my order to be)

On the chart below I've added in some AR lines drawn off the 'V' formation in the lower left corner. This had been working well with price testing those lines from below, breaking above and retesting before moving higher - I'd outlined a possible entry based on this earlier in the week. But at the last of these lines price had failed and moved lower.

I also found a different ML set with an 'A' point at the close before the gap rather than at the absolute low and this describes price perhaps a little better with price turning at the warning line - the move lower now looks like price dropping through a line to reach my possible entry - would a retest from below before moving lower then be a more likely scenario than a continuation of the move higher?

Lastly I looked at a longer TF (1hr) ( second chart). I don't use multiple TF as a rule but sometimes it's useful to get some context and in this instance the move higher looks more like a pullback in a downtrend than a move likely to continue. One of the things I really like about this hour chart is how well those green lines drawn of a 'V' on a 15 minute chart capture prior movement on a 1hr chart.

So what have I learned - that it might be possible to be paralysed by too much analysis but that too little is probably more dangerous.