Prez Forex (pres78) Trading Journal

EURUSD.

Expect to see some support as we are approaching that Dec 3rd 4hr zone high (we have touched it and are seeing some bounce) which is that key level I've mentioned numerous times 1.095...

Let's see where we go from here.

Already travelled more than the ADR however further weakness appears to be forming as we are now below the H of the Dec 3rd 4hr bar... Will we drop lower or just slide sideways. We will see.

It appears 1.09 (H of the Dec 3rd 1hr zone) may well be in order today... Big move.

Sorry about the lack of charts this week. My laptop died over the weekend so this week has been trading off my phone and using online charts to analyze. It's been a rough week but I'm struggling through ...

Usually I connect from work to my home laptop and trade that way. Feeling a bit lost.

Ah well new laptop is ordered and on the way. Should be back up and running by next week (hopefully) although I doubt I'll trade much after this Friday until the new year.

1.0904 low... close enough.

Tomorrow has the potential to be a very wild day so buckle up for safety.

. I mean just look at how nice the PA moves between and respects the levels from yesterday's zone. FO, move back inside the zone, test of the high from below, support at 50%, test of 50% from below after the break, support at the low, break and test... Lovely.[/quote]

Thanks pres ;-)

Hello Pres78, it is wonderful to see you posting.

I have finished going through the 1370+ pages of the other thread and have a couple of questions if you don't mind.

1. Do you still use a moving average -- Hulls, Pal MA, 21 SMA, 14 EMA as a trend filter? Specifically I notice times when the 50 Fib retrace could be on the wrong side of the MA. Yet still ends up being the proper reversal.

1. In general if you draw your 1hr highest volume zone for the previous day, and then you drop down to say the 15 min chart and see that most of that volume was in only 1 or 2 of those candles on the 15 min, do you adjust the zone on 15 min for only that area?

1. When you mark the highest volume interval for the previous day, what do you do about the days when you have more than one interval close to each other (but not overlapping nicely) both on extremely high volume? Do you combine them to make a larger zone?

1. I have notice on a few different occasions where the 1hr UHV zone was created. Then over the next day or 2 price would move back to the level and sit right next to it in a tight consolidating range. Finally once price broke out , it broke out away from the UHV zone and was a very long and multi leg move. Have you observed similar behavior or is this just coincidence?

Nice to see you posting again Pres, no worries, we with Rinehart still doing your style of trading next to the "pure" VSA. By your way we get even more, cleaner setups.

Wow you have done your homework. OK still without a laptop at home so there won't be any charts with this reply but I'll try and offer a few responses to each item.

1. Do you still use a moving average -- Hulls, Pal MA, 21 SMA, 14 EMA as a trend filter?

No I do not. Mainly for that reason. I am a big believer that if your going to place an indicator on your chart then you better use it and not trade against it. I use the zones only at this time, no MA. It always drove me nuts to watch people take a ND from above their MA... It always made me wonder why people had MA's on their charts and always seemed to trade against them.

1. In general if you draw your 1hr highest volume zone for the previous day, and then you drop down to say the 15 min chart and see that most of that volume was in only 1 or 2 of those candles on the 15 min, do you adjust the zone on 15 min for only that area?

No. I do at times though mark the highest 15 minute bar within the 1hr zone a different color fib. What I like to see is when say the 1hr zone low is also the highest 15 minute volume bar low... This adds strength to a level for me to see that confluence.

At times this will also tell me that a 50% is more likely to be revisited than just the low or high.

Let's say we print a 1hr zone, the low is taken out and the next day we open at LO below the zone so we are ready to short if we get the right set-up. Drop down to 15min and look at the zone from yesterday and see that the 15min volume zone within it is from 50% to the high... This would mean that I would expect a more likely chance for the 50% to be tested before the move down. Not always the case but it is something I watch.

1. When you mark the highest volume interval for the previous day, what do you do about the days when you have more than one interval close to each other (but not overlapping nicely) both on extremely high volume? Do you combine them to make a larger zone?

Yes at times I will combine bars together if the volume is very close. Unless one bar covers the spread of the others.

1. I have notice on a few different occasions where the 1hr UHV zone was created. Then over the next day or 2 price would move back to the level and sit right next to it in a tight consolidating range. Finally once price broke out , it broke out away from the UHV zone and was a very long and multi leg move. Have you observed similar behavior or is this just coincidence?

Old zones (especially when very high volume and usually when really wide range) can defiantly play factors in future PA. Usually we see a new zone form sharing levels with the old zone, but not always.

Glad to here your finding benefit in it.

It works for me.

Now despite what some may think this has nothing to do with marking supply and demand zones as Sam Seiden does it (even though some seem to think it is, I guess that's what happens when people feel the need to speak on matters they don't understand). Nothing in my method is about marking S&D zones based on RBR, RBD, DBD or DBR now is it.

Just marking the activity and trading the reactions to that activity.

Any objections to me posting some P&F / VZA charts? Have a bit of down time today.

Holly shit, it's a blast from the past. How are you doing Liam?

Post away my friend. Your always welcome. Glad you still know how to open your charts ...

I'm good, must admit it took some figuring out! Sierra Charts were offering 30% off for long time users so I couldn't say no to that! Updating the computer at the moment, it's been sitting idle for a while. Hopefully post something later on.

Thank you, this cleared up my questions. Keep up the good work!

EURUSD we've seen that key 1.095 level act as R twice today... 2 hours and 15 minutes till the fireworks!

Hope everyone is either out or at least protected at this point.

http://a.fod4.com/images/GifGuide/da...jtu8o1_500.gif

Tick tock, the countdown is on. Will they? Won't they?

Already seeing some increasing activity leading up to the main event.

Let's give this a go then.

Dipping my toes for now!



Huge volume on the 3rd December, if this high holds in the aftermath of FOMC then i'm looking to higher prices.

Here's why;



Price returned to an old low from April this year. Pretty much to the pip. Lows of 1.053 on the PnF charts. On a visit last week it bounced hard and fast from this old area and produce a really long PnF column. I'm using this column to take a count to the upside. It's worth noting that as we've hit this previous low there aren't currently any downside targets.

So on to the price projection;



I won't derail the thread (any more than I have) with explanations of P&F and how I came to the price projections but I assure you that's how it's done. Of course, they could be wrong. But hey, i'm optimistic. 1.1610 it is!

Thanks for the ok to post Pres, hope i'm not muddying the waters for other people.

Edit - i've been scratching my head regarding the 4h 1.095 area that you've mentioned a few times and i've come to the conclusion that we have different 4h charts, perhaps with an offset.

Good to see you too

Well Liam the initial spike down hit the high of that Dec 3rd 1hr zone and we have bounced thus far. Post away and I hope you stick around and post from time to time. No worries on muddying the waters as this isn't a trading system thread, it's my journal and in your own way your using / applying a little VZA as it makes sense to you. Well that and I'm a muddy water kind of guy (or so I've been told), I was muddying the waters at Malc's thread for 4 years with my VZA nonsense so it's all good here my old friend.

As for your projection, makes sense as a target. Check out the Daily chart, Aug 24th 2015. Loads of supply came in on that bar with a close right around your PnF projection.

Time will tell.

Edit - All I know is I am already drooling about the new zones being formed today for trading in the days to come. It's weird how excited this makes me ... I can almost smell the money these zones are going to make me!

Can't seem to get my daily chart working for some reason. It stops when I last opened my charts in May. I'll have a look if I can get it up and running.

I apply a lot more VZA on the lower time frames but speaking of mud, there wasn't a lot to take from today's movement on my favoured 15min HLC / 3min PnF combination so I went to the higher time frames for a look.

Definitely plan on sticking around, it's been a long time and i've had a lot of shite going on for the past few months and it feels good to be back in the hot seat and looking at some charts. Thanks for the warm welcome back!

I'll be keeping an eye on your posts for the next few days then. Kinda busy the next few days but i'll try stop by.

Edit - I see what you mean about the Daily chart. The downside count from that high was a low of 1.1140 - which was hit with ease.

Hi KinsaleForex, I was always interested in using P&F charts for target price projections, but didn't really find materials about the calculations. Are there any threads, books or videos I can start with? Thank you very much in advance.