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How do forex traders predict price?

  • #81
  • Edited 10:49am Dec 15, 2015 8:50am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Pretty much agree with you, just a few thoughts: (In my humble opinion) I don't use Risk:Reward and TP. My system gives sell signal when price is extended to the upside and gives buy signal when price is extended to the downside. Therefore the Risk:Reward is always good. I always follow every time frame (TF) and note which TF has what kind of signal (buy or sell). Every TF has different 'power': - Monthly is the strongest, it contains average 4 weekly, ~20 daily, ....candle. - Weekly is the second, it contains 5 daily, 30 H4,.....candle...

Nice post, Just a bit opinion from me. If you wait for every time frame to get on 1 side (buy or sell), it means trader looses already 'big' part of trend (he jumps in trend too late on higher time frame), what i am trying to do is I use mid time frame. for ex. 1 hour or 4 hour for entry areas, if 1 hour if down I am looking for shorts (even if weekly/monthly r up), for entries I use 5min charts (when i loose, i give very small amount of pips). And for exits I use bigger time frames daily/weekly/monthly. I jump in longs/shorts according to 1 hourly/4h charts and put SL at breakeven. After some time, when for ex. weekly trend will stabilize I will already have positions.

For example now. EURUSD shows last 2 weeks up, but we can't know when retrace will end/or even is it retrace? or new trend. But at the moment i have 2 shorts on this week candle wick. Maybe those 2 positions will be something big (if it is only retrace) or maybe they will die on breakeven. I can't know, I just follow.

Hope it makes sense,

Thank you for answer, I appreciate that.

regards,


Edit: My job as trader is to manage risk, i choose only setups where SL very close and there is bigger chance to put SL @ BE. That's it. And i let market to reward me or not.
  • #82
  • Jan 7, 2016 8:25pm Jan 7, 2016 8:25pm
just keep trying to improve ur skill and technique for anytime u do ur forex trading, will make u getting better and better for anytime u do ur forex trading, because u can learn from ur experience and learn from ur mistakes, just like other people said experience is the best way to learn.
  • #83
  • Jan 7, 2016 11:11pm Jan 7, 2016 11:11pm
I do not predict price at all (I have no idea where the price is going to...so how could I try to predict it?).

So, what I basically do is trying to take advantage of probabilities.

I dont use any indicator...my graphics are 100% clean.

My indicator is PRICE, taking in consideration the direction of price, maximum and minimums, and some support and resistances...and thats it!

Said that, I do trade base on probabilities. and I try always to find opportunities where my probability is 1:2 at least...

If you ask me anything about what the fundamental news mean, or any relevant announcement...I have no idea, I dont need to be an economist, or financial expert to trade Forex....I just need to know how to make money on it.

Many, many people spend years studying and practicing unlimited amount of information, history of graphics, indicators, etc....just to try to predict the direction of money. Price is not predictable, thats why many people get frustrated, and the most weighted reason 95% of traders fail...

There are thousands of courses....but the system, the key is the price, just watching the graphic...nude graphics...thats all you need. Then open a demo account and start trading thinking about how to take advantage of probabilities...

I use Fibonacci BUT ONLY TO EXIT. It is a good tool to have an idea when a trend could finish or make a retraction (in addition to supports and resistences and maximums and minimuns).

It is important to know that any strategy could work for some traders and dont work for others....why? Because every single person has different personality, so you polish a general strategy into your own strategy that match your personality.

I am so happy I was so lucky to find someone who tough me to trade simple. I use Price Action, but I trade a little bit different that my mentor, just Im adjusting his system to me...and works for both of us!!!

Good trading to all.
  • #84
  • Jan 7, 2016 11:39pm Jan 7, 2016 11:39pm
Quoting forexintradi
I do not predict price at all (I have no idea where the price is going to...so how could I try to predict it?)
Quote
I dont use any indicator...my graphics are 100% clean. My indicator is PRICE, taking in consideration the direction of price, maximum and minimums, and some support and resistances...and thats it!

Quote
or any relevant announcement...I have no idea

Quote
Price is not predictable

Quote
nude graphics...thats all you need

Quote
I use Fibonacci BUT ONLY TO EXIT. It is a good tool to have an idea when a trend could finish or make a retraction (in addition to supports and resistences and maximums and minimuns)

Contradictions galore. Unreal.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #85
  • Edited Jan 8, 2016 12:10am Jan 7, 2016 11:58pm | Edited Jan 8, 2016 12:10am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Contradictions galore. Unreal.
So, you think I predict?...no, I have no idea where the price is going to....
I trade based on probabilities, nothing ekse, and I don't really care if price go up or down...because my trading is not based on predictions, I just follow the price...so, where the contradictions are?
Saying just "contradictions" to a complete post full of "make sense"statements is at least reckless....
So, after that insolent comment you should explain yourself...or don't say anything if you don't have arguments supporing it.
Anyway, I just posted what I am doing and is working succesfully for me. If somebody can take advantage of my advise fine. Negative comments like yours don't help anyone, so good luck to you.
  • #86
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:43am Jan 8, 2016 12:43am
Quoting forexintradi
{quote} So, you think I predict?...no, I have no idea where the price is going to.... I trade based on probabilities, nothing ekse, and I don't really care if price go up or down...because my trading is not based on predictions, I just follow the price...so, where the contradictions are? Saying just "contradictions" to a complete post full of "make sense"statements is at least reckless.... So, after that insolent comment you should explain yourself...or don't say anything if you don't have arguments supporing it. Anyway, I just posted what I am...
You just spent however long talking about how you have nothing on your charts. "naked". You repeated yourself over and over. Oh, and you don't predict. And then you go on to say you use fibonacci because (somehow, according to you with nothing to back it up) it's a great tool and you use it to exit trades.

So you predict your exits with a "good tool", but somehow also don't predict and use naked charts. Yeah, great job. Get your story straight.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #87
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:27am Jan 8, 2016 1:27am
Quoting forexintradi
{quote} So, you think I predict?...no, I have no idea where the price is going to.... I trade based on probabilities, nothing ekse, and I don't really care if price go up or down...because my trading is not based on predictions, I just follow the price...so, where the contradictions are? Saying just "contradictions" to a complete post full of "make sense"statements is at least reckless.... So, after that insolent comment you should explain yourself...or don't say anything if you don't have arguments supporing it. Anyway, I just posted what I am...
Here's the trouble that nubs has, and so do I.

1. Either you use indicators, or you do not. This goes for every aspect and phase of your trading. No one is busting your balls per se, but you need to be consistent in how you trade when you publish these things.

2. If you use anything other than a spread sheet, you use an indicator. ANY kind of chart is an indicator.

That's all. That's the only gripe a veteran trader who is a student of this business would have.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #88
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:38am Jan 8, 2016 7:38am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} You just spent however long talking about how you have nothing on your charts. "naked". You repeated yourself over and over. Oh, and you don't predict. And then you go on to say you use fibonacci because (somehow, according to you with nothing to back it up) it's a great tool and you use it to exit trades. So you predict your exits with a "good tool", but somehow also don't predict and use naked charts. Yeah, great job. Get your story straight.
Again, you donīt explain your argument. If I use Fibonacci together with some support, resistence or retraction as a guide to exit the market doesnīt change anything in my overall post and trading style with no indicators.
And more, what is your point? I just stated how I trade, so if somebody is tired of using a lot of BS tough in most of courses and brokers training...there is other ways to operate the market.
If you donīt like it, fine to me...I donīt pretend anything with my post...capisce...
  • #89
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:45am Jan 8, 2016 7:45am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Here's the trouble that nubs has, and so do I. 1. Either you use indicators, or you do not. This goes for every aspect and phase of your trading. No one is busting your balls per se, but you need to be consistent in how you trade when you publish these things. 2. If you use anything other than a spread sheet, you use an indicator. ANY kind of chart is an indicator. That's all. That's the only gripe a veteran trader who is a student of this business would have.
I am more than consistent, I donīt use any indicator to trade. I just use Fibonacci like a reference, together with some support, resistence, or retraction of price....thats it.
If you want to say that I use indicators because that...ok, what the problem is?
I just stated the way I operate, and I am doing well with it. I know there are many, many traders overwhelmed because the tons of indicators, history studying and BS...so I pretended to show that there is other way to trade, and you dont need to spend years and a lot of money in crap courses to be a consistenly succesful trader.
Thants it...I dont understand how my post could be negative to anyone. I just try to add something in this thread...you dont agree with me, thats fantastic...but dont try to be negative and critical per se.
  • #90
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:47am Jan 8, 2016 8:47am
Quoting forexintradi
{quote} I am more than consistent, I dont use any indicator to trade. I just use Fibonacci like a reference, together with some support, resistence, or retraction of price....thats it. If you want to say that I use indicators because that...ok, what the problem is? I just stated the way I operate, and I am doing well with it. I know there are many, many traders overwhelmed because the tons of indicators, history studying and BS...so I pretended to show that there is other way to trade, and you dont need to spend years and a lot of money in crap...
I see that you are new member. Welcome to the Factory!

Criticism is not always negative.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #91
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:52am Jan 8, 2016 8:52am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I see that you are new member. Welcome to the Factory! Criticism is not always negative.
Yes, I am new here, but I use to post in several forums, this is not new to me. However I accept criticism, I donīt accept negativeness...and I know each one very well. Welcome to my comments....only if you are positive othewise I donīt care to much really....(I am already full of negative people, I donīt waste to much time on them, so if you are one of them I wonīt spend more time answering -I wonīt answer to NUBCAKE any more, he is negative-...I donīt know well about you yet...).
  • #92
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:56am Jan 8, 2016 8:56am
Quoting forexintradi
{quote} Yes, I am new here, but I use to post in several forums, this is not new to me. However I accept criticism, I dont accept negativeness...and I know each one very well. Welcome to my comments....only if you are positive othewise I dont care to much really....(I am already full of negative people, I dont waste to much time on them, so if you are one of them I wont spend more time answering -I wont answer to NUBCAKE any more, he is negative-...I dont know well about you yet...).
Don't worry about answer to little ol me, forexintradi. Here is hoping that you leave your mark at the largest of all trading forums. Looking forward your first Trading Systems thread!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #93
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:33am Jan 8, 2016 9:33am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Don't worry about answer to little ol me, forexintradi. Here is hoping that you leave your mark at the largest of all trading forums. Looking forward your first Trading Systems thread!
hahaha...I am not worried at all!!!
I donīt try to leave any mark...just giving ideas, if someone think these are useful thatīs perfect for me. I just try to add something and help if possible, thatīs why I donīt accept negativeness...
So, I guess it is better if everyone post something that could help somebody instead argue if I use or not ONE tool to guide me...sorry but I am not one of these dumb guys looking around.
I feel lucky of having learned this way of trading, and I like to share it to help. I am not going to fight...not my style and donīt take it personal, I am talking in general (I am really full of the people whose donīt make a dime in Forex, and stay the whole freaking day being negative in forums), I guess you are not one of them (I think Nubcake is), I just believe you donīt know me and maybe for that reason you misunderstood my posts. Have a nice trading day.
  • #94
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:17pm Jan 8, 2016 12:17pm
Usual disclaimer for longer threads: Haven't read every post, don't care to do so

I rarely predict a price. All I care about is will the movement be bigger than my spread+commission. Depending on the "pattern" I intent to trade I may predict a price that is likely to be reached (mostly the case with [repeating] mean reversals) in other cases I simply move my SL with me. It's a bit hard to describe but I'm really not that interested in where the price is now and where it might end all I care about is a movement that is strong enough to make a profit. Can be 1 pip or 10 or the rare 120 pips runner.

I'm on the 1m chart, I don't care for systems described on FF or anywhere else. I'm trading some sort of technical pattern with a bit of momentum related information mixed in.
  • #95
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:43pm Jan 8, 2016 12:43pm
Quoting forexintradi
{quote} Again, you dont explain your argument. If I use Fibonacci together with some support, resistence or retraction as a guide to exit the market doesnt change anything in my overall post and trading style with no indicators. And more, what is your point? I just stated how I trade, so if somebody is tired of using a lot of BS tough in most of courses and brokers training...there is other ways to operate the market. If you dont like it, fine to me...I dont pretend anything with my post...capisce...
You contradict yourself and just drop this nebulous nonsense on the forum as though it is helpful. Once you get your own story straight then maybe you can provide wisdom and value, until then you are just a walking contradiction hoping others will give you a pat on the back merely for making a post on the forum. That's not how it works.

I explained the situation perfectly, you just fail to grasp the simplest of things which is not surprising for someone who spends an entire post talking about naked charts and then at the end talks about fibonacci. What I don't understand is how YOU don't understand. It's not a riddle. It's not a puzzle. How can you see that you totally contradicted yourself?

Oh, and what a surprise that you are anti-stoploss. Get lost.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #96
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:55pm Jan 8, 2016 12:55pm
hahaha...learn reading first. I am anti stoploss???...hahaha...go back to school, I know now what your problem is...you cant read. I am sorry you didnt get a good education...sorry, sorry, sorry...I didnītt pretend bully you. This is my last post to you since oil and water canīt mix...I could get soak of you!!! Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
  • #97
  • Jan 8, 2016 2:17pm Jan 8, 2016 2:17pm
Quoting forexintradi
hahaha...learn reading first. I am anti stoploss???...hahaha...go back to school, I know now what your problem is...you cant read. I am sorry you didnt get a good education...sorry, sorry, sorry...I didntt pretend bully you. This is my last post to you since oil and water cant mix...I could get soak of you!!! Byeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
You know what? You are right. Now that I have you and tradability on ignore I confused whose "show post" button I had clicked while reading that other thread, and confused your post with his.

I retract the quip about stop-losses.

You are still a contradictory fool, nonetheless.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #98
  • Jan 30, 2016 5:26am Jan 30, 2016 5:26am
its easier to predict price in the long term NOT short term.can you accurately predict price on a one min or 5 min chart ofcourse NOT
  • #99
  • Jan 30, 2016 8:35am Jan 30, 2016 8:35am
The best way to understand how price moves for beginners is to study one pair. Play in the MT4 strategy tester as much as you can stand and use as many different indicators to help keep it fresh. In the end I've found the indicators unreliable. The key is to keep in mind that the banks are moving the forex market. After playing in the strategy tester over and over you will come to recognize the banks manipulation patterns, then you just ride the wave! Here's a picture of a nice tool to help make strategy testing more inter active.

Cheers,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: With Highlights.PNG Size: 161 KB
  • #100
  • Jan 30, 2016 9:24am Jan 30, 2016 9:24am
Quoting ericnyamu
its easier to predict price in the long term NOT short term.can you accurately predict price on a one min or 5 min chart ofcourse NOT
mmm...in short term is not possible, I agree...in long term it looks like is easer, but still it is not possible, because nobody control variables, and we donīt have the information to know it. However if you operate a long term trend, the probabilities (not that you can predict) are higher than 50%.
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