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Intraday Observations

  • #61
  • Dec 15, 2015 12:10am Dec 15, 2015 12:10am
Intraday Observations for Tuesday 15th Dec
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th Dec 15 EUR:USD M5 Chart.png Size: 93 KB
  • #62
  • Dec 15, 2015 1:29am Dec 15, 2015 1:29am
Quoting JaguarJaguar
{quote} Well done buddy, I took half of what you took, was happy with that tonight! Great analysis earlier also! Been reading the thread you mentioned also, very interesting. Speak later Cheers
Hi Mark;

It was after reading TRD's thread that I realised I could Trade Institutional Order Flow on a lower TF with a much smaller SL and hence a far better Risk:Reward:Ratio a 5R Trade on D1 could take weeks if not months to achieve.

There are Zones of Liquidity on all TF's, the easiest place to find this Liquidity is at obvious Stop Loss Levels the Institutions need this Liquidity (Volume) to build their positions.

Like today, where we see, the Market has been climbing during the Asian session Frankfurt and London will know there will be a lot of Sell Stops sitting at the bottom of the Asian range they will deliberately target these Stops to provide the Liquidity they need to enter the Market at a far better price.

Look for the obvious Stop Loss placements, both Buy and Sell, and wait for the Market to come to you never try entering a Trade in no mans land. Like I've said before the higher the TF the more Stops that will be there and hence a bigger Market reaction.
  • #63
  • Dec 15, 2015 2:55am Dec 15, 2015 2:55am
Quoting stevepatt
Intraday Observations for Tuesday 15th Dec {image}

The Institutions will push the market where ever it needs to go to harvest Liquidity they don't care because they make money on the way up and the way down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th Dec 15 EUR:USD M5 Chart 2.png Size: 119 KB
  • #64
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:48am Dec 15, 2015 4:48am
Hi Steve,

I really like your thread and I'm trying to apply this trading style. May I ask you what brought you into that short (since I too shorted EU but my timing was a little too early) and how did you choose the SL level? Also, do you usually enter multiple times on those contrarian trades or your hit ratio is pretty consistent and when you are stopped out stop shorting (in this case) and wait?
We become what we think about
  • #65
  • Dec 15, 2015 11:57am Dec 15, 2015 11:57am
It might be a cliche but the Bruce Lee quote Being Like Water certainly holds true within Trading.

If you hold a directional Bias, for the Market to travel in, you can no longer be like water and flow with the Market.

I've taken no positions today because I have been working.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th Dec 15 EUR:USD H1 Chart.png Size: 119 KB
  • #66
  • Edited 11:58pm Dec 15, 2015 2:17pm | Edited 11:58pm
Quoting Smaraz
Hi Steve, I really like your thread and I'm trying to apply this trading style. May I ask you what brought you into that short (since I too shorted EU but my timing was a little too early) and how did you choose the SL level? Also, do you usually enter multiple times on those contrarian trades or your hit ratio is pretty consistent and when you are stopped out stop shorting (in this case) and wait?
Hi Smaraz;

There where three things that led me into taking that trade.

1/Market broke last weeks high. There are going to be a lot of Buy Stops sitting up there (As we have seen today) waiting to provide Volume for the Sellers to Buy from. Remember we are Trading in a Zero Sum Market so if we want to Buy there has to be someone prepared to Sell to us.

2/When I entered the Market was within 2 pips of the 20 Day Daily Average Range.

3/Time of day, that late in the day, London about to close there wasn't going to be a big Market thrust at that time especially on a Monday.

So with those things going for me I thought the odds where in my favour.

The maximum Stop Loss, I try to set is, 10 pips I wasn't prepared to let it move against me more than this amount.

I only enter once and always look for a gap of at least 1:2 Risk:Reward, to Take Profit, I usually move to BE at 1R and then watch the market to get an idea of how the Market is moving to my Take Profit position.

If I'm stopped out on a Trade because my timing is off and soon after there is another valid setup I will re-enter.

I'm still getting used to Trading the M5 TF again after a lot of years of Trading D1 Charts.
  • #67
  • Dec 16, 2015 7:39am Dec 16, 2015 7:39am
Thank you very much Steve, keep up the good work
We become what we think about
  • #68
  • Dec 16, 2015 10:57am Dec 16, 2015 10:57am
EUR/USD H1/M5 Short Trade

Just got in from work and saw this setup at hourly structure.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16th Dec 15 EUR:USD H1 Chart.png Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 16th Dec 15 EUR:USD M5 Chart.png Size: 303 KB
  • #69
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:01pm Dec 16, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Hi danzka, {image} {image}
Hi Steve,

Not sure if the above quote will transfer into this thread from TheRawDeal's thread
but the information shown on his drawing is amazing to see how things really are,
maybe at times, I have seen price spike and keep going a lot further, 200 or 300
pips, rare I guess but it doesn't always retrace as shown here, I am not saying he's
suggesting it always retraces either.

But the way everything is being SO manipulated is terrible, I guess I sound so naive
to say that I wasn't aware of the manipulation, I was but to see it so cold as illustrated
I am a little shocked.

Keep up the great analysis Steve.

Cheers
  • #70
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:04pm Dec 16, 2015 3:04pm
The chart didn't copy across so here it is....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TRD chart.JPG Size: 136 KB
  • #71
  • Dec 16, 2015 4:43pm Dec 16, 2015 4:43pm
Quoting stevepatt
EUR/USD H1/M5 Short Trade Just got in from work and saw this setup at hourly structure. {image} {image}
Exited this trade for 1.5R before the FOMC Statement.
  • #72
  • Dec 16, 2015 5:18pm Dec 16, 2015 5:18pm
Quoting JaguarJaguar
{quote} Hi Steve, Not sure if the above quote will transfer into this thread from TheRawDeal's thread but the information shown on his drawing is amazing to see how things really are, maybe at times, I have seen price spike and keep going a lot further, 200 or 300 pips, rare I guess but it doesn't always retrace as shown here, I am not saying he's suggesting it always retraces either. But the way everything is being SO manipulated is terrible, I guess I sound so naive to say that I wasn't aware of the manipulation, I was but to see it so cold as...
Hi Mark;

The Market Makers business plan is Accumulation - Manipulation - Profit Run it's what they do day after day to make money because it works.

The candles, we see, on the charts shows this in action, but they are very good at disguising what they are doing otherwise everyone could see what was happening and there would be no Market.

Once we know what to look for we can Trade in their foot steps.

I can now see the Accumulation, Manipulation and of course the Profit Run but it's difficult to predict the direction of the Orders being Accumulated.

We can see a big Market Spike during High Impact News release when the Big Players will pull their Orders out of the Market, because they don't want to be exposed to Market at this time, and it won't take much Volume to have a dramatic impact on the Market.

We also get major moves in the Market after Orders have been Accumulated and there is no one left to take the other side of their Orders, this causes their Orders to crash through the Order Book.
  • #73
  • Dec 17, 2015 12:13am Dec 17, 2015 12:13am
Observations for Thursday 17th Dec
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 17th Dec 15 EUR:USD D1 Chart.png Size: 108 KB
  • #74
  • Dec 17, 2015 1:05am Dec 17, 2015 1:05am
Quoting stevepatt
Observations for Thursday 17th Dec {image}
Always wait for the Market to come to you don't Trade mid Swing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 17th Dec 15 EUR:USD H1 Chart.png Size: 115 KB
  • #75
  • Dec 17, 2015 3:27am Dec 17, 2015 3:27am
Quoting stevepatt
Observations for Thursday 17th Dec {image}
Like your thread and trading style, I have just added Monthly Pivots
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  • #76
  • Dec 17, 2015 3:33am Dec 17, 2015 3:33am
Now Daily Pivots
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  • #77
  • Dec 17, 2015 3:43am Dec 17, 2015 3:43am
Finally Wkly, I just add your ideas of range expectation ie can it get to the next level be it Daily, Wkly or even Monthly
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  • #78
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:56am Dec 17, 2015 7:56am
Great pivots dave...better then mine lol can you share it?
  • #79
  • Dec 17, 2015 8:28am Dec 17, 2015 8:28am
Quoting devontrader
Great pivots dave...better then mine lol can you share it?
Hi D/T how you going, as you know I am not a fan of MT4 so they are off my Marketscope Charts and come as standard
  • #80
  • Dec 17, 2015 10:51am Dec 17, 2015 10:51am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Like your thread and trading style, I have just added Monthly Pivots {image}
Hi Dave;

If it helps, that's fine.

I'd rather stick to Trading from one Zone of Liquidity to the next.
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