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Attachments: Systematic Daily Chart
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Systematic Daily Chart

  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited at 10:14am Dec 10, 2015 1:05am | Edited at 10:14am
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
I've been a long time member here, but I have not been too active in past few yrs due to busy schedule with work(I work in finance). I've been toying with many systems over the past two yrs, really trying to find a system that fits my personality and work well with my active lifestyle. The end results that have been produced in terms of a systematic approach has been a swing trading methodology off of a trading model on the daily chart.

Position Sizing- I have a simple excel model that I use to "score" the outputs of each of the model components, which gives me a probability approach when it comes to position sizing. In terms of position sizing, I usually do not go too big, meaning that anywhere above 5:1 leverage would be aggressive. This allows me to get rid of the use of stops, which in my professional experience do not do me any good. There are many different thoughts on this, and I really believe that it all comes down to how much pain you are willing to take in a trade and your level of mental discipline. My position sizing is usually small(unless I am very confident on a trade, then I throw everything I have at it) so this lets me be completely indifferent as to whether I was +200p or -200p. I think Larry Hite said something similar-use sizing to where you are completely indifferent on a trade.

Holding- In terms of holding time, I will hold a trade as long as it's paying me.

Execution- In terms of execution, I don't do anything fancy, I simply place limit orders at levels where price has bounced off sharply, indicative of good size liquidity. From my experience, bigger orders are usually around big figures. It is very important to be patient, I will wait as long as necessary for a trade to be presented.

The system-I use a time series forecasting indicator, a stochastic with a proprietary smoothing algorithm, composite market profile(with proprietary levels of S&R), monthly range projection, two timing indicators(DeMark and proprietary)

I really just want to see other people discuss systematic approaches to swing/position trading off the daily charts-so please no intraday here
  • Post #2
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  • Dec 10, 2015 1:11am Dec 10, 2015 1:11am
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
Just want to post a few charts so people can see how I trade. I am a trader, not an analyst. I react to conditions in the market and how my model reflects them in risk preference. To be quite honest, I do not follow much news(only for contrarian sentiment) or even economic data for that matter-most of this is just noise anyway.

EURUSD
-nearing top of range close to 1.1135, looking quite stretched here, but it can squeeze higher. I have no position on this pair

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  • Post #3
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  • Dec 10, 2015 1:15am Dec 10, 2015 1:15am
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
GBPUSD
-tons of energy building since the beginning of summer reflected by the wedge here with decreasing amplitude. I took a long position after I had signals, up abt 180p right now, holding into rate decision looking higher to end the week.

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  • Post #4
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  • Edited at 9:39am Dec 10, 2015 1:26am | Edited at 9:39am
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
EURAUD
-losing momentum, looking for a dip here, not time just yet though


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  • Post #5
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  • Dec 10, 2015 8:45pm Dec 10, 2015 8:45pm
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
USDJPY
-much better support near 120. A big magnet level

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  • Post #6
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  • Dec 11, 2015 12:07am Dec 11, 2015 12:07am
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
EURAUD
- should see some weak price action early next week. I will be looking to go short this pair when timing is right.

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  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Dec 11, 2015 2:04pm Dec 11, 2015 2:04pm
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
Quoting mfoste1
Disliked
GBPUSD -tons of energy building since the beginning of summer reflected by the wedge here with decreasing amplitude. I took a long position after I had signals, up abt 180p right now, holding into rate decision looking higher to end the week. {image}
Ignored

nice movement here, good compression at the bottom. Same with the USDJPY fade, mkt looking for lower prices as rate bulls panic a bit
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Dec 14, 2015 12:58am Dec 14, 2015 12:58am
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
USDCHF has a buy signal, but it is still sitting above support .9700-.9650. From my experience, hard levels of support and resistance trump momentum and timing, with that being said I would need to wait here to buy.

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  • Post #9
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  • Dec 14, 2015 11:23am Dec 14, 2015 11:23am
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
There are some big convergences that should be happening right now- based upon the fact that USDJPY and USDCHF are trading very close to markets fair value- 120 and .97 respectively. This opens up a huge opportunity for trades in the USD space, most notably EURUSD where mkts fair value is up near 1.2170 I believe. Assuming that we get a direction with a catalyst at the wed meeting, we will see a big USD trade in the next quarter. Charts can tell you a lot about the mkt, if you can take them for face value
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Dec 20, 2015 11:41pm Dec 20, 2015 11:41pm
  •  mfoste1
  • Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,538 Posts
Quoting mfoste1
Disliked
USDCHF has a buy signal, but it is still sitting above support .9700-.9650. From my experience, hard levels of support and resistance trump momentum and timing, with that being said I would need to wait here to buy. {image}
Ignored

USD looks to be fading right now, this is what the USDCHF looks like now. I did not take a trade on the buy signal that I posted, but that trade looks to be up about 100pips from buy entry support. Getting a decent sell countdown now entering into OB territory. Closely watching this and EURUSD which seem to be correlating well(negatively) right now. I am just sitting and waiting right now, currently no trades, but some selling of USD looks to be setting up here over the next 3 days.

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  • Post #11
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  • Last Post: Jan 6, 2016 11:53am Jan 6, 2016 11:53am
  •  jpwtrade
  • | Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Member | 42 Posts
Quoting mfoste1
Disliked
Just want to post a few charts so people can see how I trade. I am a trader, not an analyst. I react to conditions in the market and how my model reflects them in risk preference. To be quite honest, I do not follow much news(only for contrarian sentiment) or even economic data for that matter-most of this is just noise anyway. EURUSD -nearing top of range close to 1.1135, looking quite stretched here, but it can squeeze higher. I have no position on this pair {image}
Ignored
Hello,

" I am a trader, not an analyst" interesting sentence..........

Myself also trade from day charts only, using Fibonacci and harmonic patterns. Looking for reversal points.

I am interested to know more about the indicator that you use on the right hand side of your graph. (Red, green and blue colours)

Regards
 
 
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