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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #2,761
  • Edited 6:37am Dec 14, 2015 5:35am | Edited 6:37am
sold at the pivot.. 25p tp, manual sl..

Edit: sorry, i sold at D-PP, not W-PP.. just to clarify..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,762
  • Dec 14, 2015 5:58am Dec 14, 2015 5:58am
Quoting sanvulture
sold at the pivot.. 25p tp, manual sl..
sorry had to chime in here,

san, why did you sell at pivot? you must have planned that one in advance right? thinking...if it gets there I will sell, well we were at 50 / 60 and it shot up to 66 pretty quickly, you could have been long instead *at first at least* and then shorted if you still thought it was good then. it's gone up pretty fast so not sure it will come back to give you 25. it might see some selling at 90 and come back to 75/70 but, it's a fast move up and it's been forming a flag and pennant pointing up now

the thing about today's weekly pp is that it came DOWN through it from above and now from below through it and most likely to go above it, opposite mirror action price flow from this morning.

you don't have to answer, just checking the conviction and reasoning for your trade, to me it seemed like "sell at the pivot because price should react there"...there's much more to it than that. Even a mid term longer intra day oscillator will confirm that PA is tending to turn up here at/near the pivot.
  • #2,763
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:11am Dec 14, 2015 6:11am
at this minute I think there are a lot of scalpers trying to move the pivot and position traders that went short late Friday and early today at 80/90 levels that are trying to protect their positions and double up...we all know how that ends up...even if you have billions to trade with.

I believe the WTF move is in progress and price will start crawling up again after all those shorts are filled, and those shorts will start covering about 20p up from here at 1.1010 when we'll see another surge up....
  • #2,764
  • Edited 6:26am Dec 14, 2015 6:13am | Edited 6:26am
out (of the thread) for at least the rest of week where ever price goes

GL everyone
  • #2,765
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:33am Dec 14, 2015 6:33am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} sorry had to chime in here, san, why did you sell at pivot? you must have planned that one in advance right? thinking...if it gets there I will sell, well we were at 50 / 60 and it shot up to 66 pretty quickly, you could have been long instead *at first at least* and then shorted if you still thought it was good then. it's gone up pretty fast so not sure it will come back to give you 25. it might see some selling at 90 and come back to 75/70 but, it's a fast move up and it's been forming a flag and pennant pointing up now the thing about...
sorry for late reply, i was having coffee break.. my D-PP is at 1.09841 and my sell was placed at 1.09829.. and price hasnt even gone up 10p yet..
i sold at daily pivot, not weekly..
i'll post my chart pic..

Attached Image


according to my chart, price got rejected by D-PP and came down to W-PP where it got rejected again.. i was actually thinking to buy above W-PP and place tp at D-PP, but was looking at Facebook and missed the spike.. from my chart, i felt that price is at the top of the range and sold there.. it did went down for 9p, but i wanted to be patient for that 25p tp.. since its micro lot, i'll wait for price to hit tp even if it goes up 100pips..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,766
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:36am Dec 14, 2015 6:36am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} but i wanted to be patient for that 25p tp.. since its micro lot, i'll wait for price to hit tp even if it goes up 100pips..
OK, your logic for your trade I understand, your risk mgmt I do not...

put another way....I'm willing to risk 4x my projected gain, just so I don't take a smaller loss or so I can prove I'm patient and trading well.

Whatever happens DO NOT RISK 100 to get 25....ever.
  • #2,767
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:46am Dec 14, 2015 6:46am
San, the trad logic is rational and intelligent based on probability. But your risk mgmt is irrational and based on negative return certainty over time, just extrapolate all possible scenarios with that kind of risk mgmt. doesn't matter if it is a micro or mega lot
  • #2,768
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:50am Dec 14, 2015 6:50am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} OK, your logic for your trade I understand, your risk mgmt I do not... put another way....I'm willing to risk 4x my projected gain, just so I don't take a smaller loss or so I can prove I'm patient and trading well. Whatever happens DO NOT RISK 100 to get 25....ever.
true.. but i lost my previous account and 20% of my current account bcoz of stop losses.. bcoz price always came back to my TP or at least BE levels after hitting my stop loss.. i know its my fault to place orders at choppy areas, but without sl, i could have managed to come out BE..
so i decided to not use sl from 0.01-0.02 orders and 20pips sl for 0.03-0.05 orders and not using mini lot unless i'm really confident, or desperate which i'm trying not to be..
this whole thing is bcoz i'm bad at hedging.. but yes, money is money whether big or small and i'll not risk 100 to get 25.. i'll use 40 or 50pips sl for 0.01-0.02 orders.. thank you..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,769
  • Dec 14, 2015 6:56am Dec 14, 2015 6:56am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} true.. but i lost my previous account and 20% of my current account bcoz of stop losses.. bcoz price always came back to my TP or at least BE levels after hitting my stop loss.. i know its my fault to place orders at choppy areas, but without sl, i could have managed to come out BE.. so i decided to not use sl from 0.01-0.02 orders and 20pips sl for 0.03-0.05 orders and not using mini lot unless i'm really confident, or desperate which i'm trying not to be.. this whole thing is bcoz i'm bad at hedging.. but yes, money is money whether big...
don't use static stops and don't take a trade unless that projected sl is less or even with projected tp

all it takes is one black swan event to wipe your account...doesn't matter if your lot size is 01 or 100, if you are trading in incremental equity based sizes, that one 100p loss will wipe out a least 4 profits or more with your TP...

you are using the chart to place TP so use the chart area how ever many pips away +5 / +10 / +15 to place SL based on volatility
  • #2,770
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:05am Dec 14, 2015 7:05am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} don't use static stops and don't take a trade unless that projected sl is less or even with projected tp all it takes is one black swan event to wipe your account...doesn't matter if your lot size is 01 or 100, if you are trading in incremental equity based sizes, that one 100p loss will wipe out a least 4 profits or more with your TP... you are using the chart to place TP so use the chart area how ever many pips away +5 / +10 / +15 to place SL based on volatility
yes, since u told me that day, i have been trying to place sl at resistance and support levels.. and when the day is slow or the S/R is more than 40pips from my entry, i place them at the start of previous big candle.. in the chart i posted above, if i bought instead of selling at the same entry, my sl would be at 30p, just below that big green candle..
i have been trying to learn from all the valuable info and critics u give me and i'm really grateful for that.. and i hope i'm not taking too much of ur time..

also, moved SL to BE+2.5p and price is at +17p..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,771
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:12am Dec 14, 2015 7:12am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} yes, since u told me that day, i have been trying to place sl at resistance and support levels.. and when the day is slow or the S/R is more than 40pips from my entry, i place them at the start of previous big candle.. in the chart i posted above, if i bought instead of selling at the same entry, my sl would be at 30p, just below that big green candle.. i have been trying to learn from all the valuable info and critics u give me and i'm really grateful for that.. also, moved SL to BE+2.5p and price is at +17p..
Also chart or market psychology to place stops. You shorted at 84+, market has come down from 1.10 last 2 days, it got rejected at 85ish this morning...very unlikely in your case that the market would go there in one swing to 1.10...therefore 16p stop + 2p or more for spread + Xp margin of error (still way under 100p or even 50p and in a safe, unlikely to be reached place). Those that shorted at 90 had mental stops in up to 105 / 108 / 110 tops before they would have given in (so about 20p max in their case, most likely less, saving their powder for another shot at another level).

In my case this morning my trade plan and bias toward a long long for 100p or more, based on my chart analysis you can see that I posted that the lower range today would be up to 1.0940. My orig entry was at 70, but in between I bailed, shorted and then went long again. We went at low as 44/45. I whip sawed once today, but net dd on the accumulated trades either way are the same because of lower 2nd entry price. And my lower range sl has moved up a few pips.

For a tighter TP I would like to think that I would have scalped it more, but based on my experience I probably would have whipped more too. I'm happier going for 60p to 100p moves with 30 to 50p stops and trading less frequently and fine tuning, looking for reasons to hold/bail/reverse in the meantime. Ideally, I would like to scalp swings in between longer swing trades too, but there are very few who can do that effectively and consistently. KzX is the only one on FF so far that I've met that can do that.
  • #2,772
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:21am Dec 14, 2015 7:21am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Also chart or market psychology to place stops. You shorted at 84+, market has come down from 1.10 last 2 days, it got rejected at 85ish this morning...very unlikely in your case that the market would go there in one swing to 1.10...therefore 16p stop + 2p or more for spread + Xp margin of error (still way under 100p or even 50p and in a safe, unlikely to be reached place). Those that shorted at 90 had mental stops in up to 105 / 108 / 110 tops before they would have given in (so about 20p max in their case, most likely less, saving their...
yes, i'll learn to do that in mean time, thank you.. its kinda hard to keep track of everything that happened in days, weeks and months before..

also, i forgot to close profits at +17p, and price got up and hit my sl which i moved to BE+5p when i saw it coming up..
i could have moved my sl to BE+10p, but its kinda ranging and i feared it may get hit easily..

Edit: damnit, i wanted to short at D-PP again, but missed my entry when typing this comment.. lol
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,773
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:33am Dec 14, 2015 7:33am
Getting interesting. Kind of a h&s forming now on 1mn with right shoulder line breached, but the bottom of that shoulder looks like it's extending out to become a W, and W's have been very powerful the last couple of days here on the 1mn and 5mn. This is the last chance for now for sellers to push it to new DLs ... If it moves up and takes out today's DH it lights out for bears.

as for me still a bull and going to sleep now
  • #2,774
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:44am Dec 14, 2015 7:44am
Quoting Pipologist
Getting interesting. Kind of a h&s forming now on 1mn with right shoulder line breached, but the bottom of that shoulder looks like it's extending out to become a W, and W's have been very powerful the last couple of days here on the 1mn and 5mn. This is the last chance for now for sellers to push it to new DLs ... If it moves up and takes out today's DH it lights out for bears. as for me still a bull and going to sleep now
somehow today's D-PP has managed to keep the price down and its monday and no more news.. i dont know how/where price will get momentum to breach D-PP today..

BTW, good night..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,775
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:50am Dec 14, 2015 7:50am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} somehow today's D-PP has managed to keep the price down and its monday and no more news.. i dont know how/where price will get momentum to breach D-PP today.. BTW, good night..

W's are very powerful and they rarely turn into M's...in this case theoretically it could, but I think it's in the wrong place....sellers have already sold out ad 84 and 90...it retraced to 65 then 75 the 2nd time, simply put, low liquidity, no sellers, the big money that bought this morning is not going to let it go with just 40p profit when they can start hitting a shit load of sl stops and new buy stops. It's starting now...

the reason big money is not letting it go with 40p (unless it's an emergency price move) is that with billions of dollars and thousands of lots to unload the market will see the PA (market makers, liq providers and coat tail so that 20 to 30p is lost in the closing of positions.) Those that have bought this morning have managed to keep and move it up incrementally even though the sentiment of the entire world is towards hike and stronger dollar. They have money, power and more info than most of the street and retail. Let's put it that way....it's all in the PA mixed with fundies and market psych...there she goes...
  • #2,776
  • Dec 14, 2015 7:58am Dec 14, 2015 7:58am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} W's are very powerful and they rarely turn into M's...in this case theoretically it could, but I think it's in the wrong place....sellers have already sold out ad 84 and 90...it retraced to 65 then 75 the 2nd time, simply put, low liquidity, no sellers, the big money that bought this morning is not going to let it go with just 40p profit when they can start hitting a shit load of sl stops and new buy stops. It's starting now...
wait, 40p buying this morning? where? i only see selling..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15.png Size: 38 KB


my chart time starts with Sydney and i think urs too as u r from Australia, as per ur profile.. what am i missing?
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,777
  • Dec 14, 2015 8:01am Dec 14, 2015 8:01am
Quoting Pipologist
A close above 68 now should confirm that short term intra day 1mn volat is now UP...until then still slightly cautious here. Get ready for a WTF move to the upside, only purely technical traders are going to be the ones who even imagined it coming. The "analysts" are going to be saying WTF? {image}
Accumulation on chart....
  • #2,778
  • Dec 14, 2015 8:06am Dec 14, 2015 8:06am
Quoting sanvulture
{quote} wait, 40p buying this morning? where? i only see selling.. {image} my chart time starts with Sydney and i think urs too as u r from Australia, as per ur profile.. what am i missing?
50/45 to 90/85 is 40p

MONEY has been been all day long from under 60, under 50 and on all the dips back up.

AFTER the DL printed it's been HH and LLs
  • #2,779
  • Dec 14, 2015 8:08am Dec 14, 2015 8:08am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} 50/45 to 90/85 is 40p MONEY has been been all day long from under 60, under 50 and on all the dips back up.
yes.. sorry, i got confused.. u r talking about the start of accumulation and i was looking for the actual spike..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,780
  • Dec 14, 2015 9:05am Dec 14, 2015 9:05am
last interesting tidbit....

the WSJ publishes a page of recent various rates...the overnight repo rate dropped to .16 from .24 the week before...it printed .16 on Friday...

unless that is a misprint and should be .26 and unless it had moved back up today...*don't have a bb terminal to check myself* I would see banks and dealers as trying to get some in before a hike, or a hike is not coming at all...if a hike is REALLY priced into the market like the fedfundsfutures probabilities say it is, then we are having some super FUNKY PA today, that completely contradicts it...would not be surprised to see a super spike up tomorrow night/wednesday. keep in mind a clean and solid break above 1.1050 which is only 55p away...would turn this thing into an open field to run up in increments of 100p with 1.15 as the ultimate med term resistance.
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