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  • #881
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:25am Dec 11, 2015 9:25am
Last trade of the week, SL BE

I was waiting EJ @133.60 all day..but never got filled there...pitty...
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #882
  • Dec 11, 2015 11:43am Dec 11, 2015 11:43am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Fxentropy; I'm impressed by the way you can Trade multiple pairs at once I can only concentrate on one pair, EUR/USD when trading M5. The chart below shows what I'm looking for, I wasn't around to Trade the Bullish Profit Run today, Accumulation - Manipulation - Profit Run. I find there is, usually, one of three things happening at Frankfurt - New York Open 1/ Stops get run (Today New York Open EUR/USD M5) 2/ Break Out is Triggered and then Stops get hit (Today Frankfurt Open EUR/USD M5) 3/ Open with no Tricks and...
Hi Steve,

I trade EU GU EJ GJ...and sometimes UJ & EG. Its easy for me to watch and trade multiple pairs because all pais i watch are inter-connected and with a degree of corrolations.

Regarding trading and entry's, i use what TRD gave as solution in this thread, worth to re-read this: HERE and HERE and HERE

I love liquidity pools ideea, as well as time and price (however i still have to improuve myself in this area as i trade all the time - lol)......but getting there

If i can get to my PC in the morning, then i like to watch how price develop below/above asia range, to see where the market stophunt price and seek for liquidity pools.
There i would entry ''balls deep'' with no regrets whatsoever

Have fun and good weekend everyone
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #883
  • Dec 12, 2015 1:18am Dec 12, 2015 1:18am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} Hi Steve, I trade EU GU EJ GJ...and sometimes UJ & EG. Its easy for me to watch and trade multiple pairs because all pais i watch are inter-connected and with a degree of corrolations. Regarding trading and entry's, i use what TRD gave as solution in this thread, worth to re-read this: HERE and HERE and HERE...

Hi Fxentropy;

Thank you for taking the time to reply, I appreciate it.

I've been following this thread since it started but when I first read the posts, you have highlighted, I didn't fully comprehend what TRD was doing it was only by going away and doing my own research around what I thought TRD was doing that things started to make sense me.

The biggest leap forward, for my Trading, was when I really understood what a Zero Sum Market meant to me as a Trader.

Knowing this, I started to think who was on the other side of my Trade was it simply someone Selling when I was Buying or was it someone who had Bought at a lower price and was now Liquidating their position, for Profit, by Selling to me.

This is what Institutional Money does day in day out by Manipulating the Market they Accumulate Orders and when they have enough Orders the Market moves in the direction of their Accumulated Orders it's only then that most Traders start to see what is happening and jump into a Trade once everyone is on board and pushing price where they want it to go the Institutional Money starts to Liquidate, for profit, providing fuel for the Trend as they do so.

Any new Traders, reading the highlighted text above will do themselves a great favour by doing their own research into this because it's how the Markets Work it's the Institutional Moneys Business Model (Accumulation - Manipulation - Profit Run). What we see on the Chart (Candles) is only the Facade, the above, is what goes on behind the "Candles".

Unfortunately, because of work commitments, I don't get much time to Trade M5.

But an exercise I follow, every morning, is to draw in, what I think are going to be, Stop Levels on the M5 TF at the Frankfurt Open and then observe Price around these Levels.

I then, try to, Observe what the Institutional Money have planned for that day usually nothing is as it first appears to be as they run Stops or trigger False Break Outs. Sometimes these Break Outs are a double bluff as they Break then pull the Market back to trigger Stops, providing more Volume, then the Market takes off in the direction of the original Break Out.

Sorry, I didn't mean to ramble on, but I'm passionate that new Traders should get an insight into what really happens within the Markets.
  • #884
  • Dec 12, 2015 6:01am Dec 12, 2015 6:01am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Fxentropy; Thank you for taking the time to reply, I appreciate it. I've been following this thread since it started but when I first read the posts, you have highlighted, I didn't fully comprehend what TRD was doing it was only by going away and doing my own research around what I thought TRD was doing that things started to make sense me. The biggest leap forward, for my Trading, was when I really understood what a Zero Sum Market meant to me as a Trader. Knowing this, I started to think who was on the other side of my Trade was it...

Good post Steve !

I like to think about forex market as "simply transfer of risk from winners to losers".
Yes, Its a zero sum game. Therefore, your Strategy and especially your Risk Management will define who you are as a trader, a winner or a loser -- and this is our "edge".
In this business you need this 'edge' to survive and to make money.

In this thread TRD just gave out a lot of usefull info- for someone who is already involved into trading- to understand that trading is somehow simple, only we tend to overcomplicated.
For me the big change, or the AHA moment, was to understand that trends doesnt exist. There is just liquidity pools, on different timeframes, that make price to move from one pool to another.

Have a good weekend!
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #885
  • Dec 12, 2015 10:34am Dec 12, 2015 10:34am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} Good post Steve ! I like to think about forex market as "simply transfer of risk from winners to losers". Yes, Its a zero sum game. Therefore, your Strategy and especially your Risk Management will define who you are as a trader, a winner or a loser -- and this is our "edge". In this business you need this 'edge' to survive and to make money. In this thread TRD just gave out a lot of usefull info- for someone who is already involved into trading- to understand that trading is somehow simple, only we tend to overcomplicated. For me the...
Speaking of EDGE...

People who THINK or CLAIM to have an edge will explain what their edge is in one way or another.
You will also often hear statements like "you need to know your edge to profit from the markets"

Believe it or not, such so called 'edge' is more often than not meaningless to the individual, as well as guru followers.

Reason is simple...

If you can profit more than you lose in trading, in another words if:

P = profits
L = loss

where,

P - L = net positive

You have an edge period... Without the need to explain what one's edge is.
Even if the net positive is only by 0.1 pip.
  • #886
  • Dec 12, 2015 10:57am Dec 12, 2015 10:57am
Quoting yonseo
{quote} P = profits L = loss where, P - L = net positive You have an edge period... Without the need to explain what one's edge is. Even if the net positive is only by 0.1 pip
LOL...you really know how to cut the chase
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #887
  • Dec 12, 2015 1:02pm Dec 12, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting yonseo
If you can profit more than you lose in trading, in another words if: P = profits L = loss where, P - L = net positive You have an edge period... Without the need to explain what one's edge is. Even if the net positive is only by 0.1 pip.
Thats not an edge, is statistical variance. If you toss a coin 100 times would you expect to have exactly 50 head and 50 tails? You may likely end up with 58 head and 42 tails or something like that. Would you say that head has an edge against tail? No, is still f**king 50/50 probability, what you see is only statistical variance in play.
Take 1000 monkeys and let them trading the market, after a while you will see some monkey are rich, some monkeys blew their account, many monkeys are near breakeven, some monkeys are slightly good profit, some monkeys are in slightly loss. And this is exactly the situation you have on this forum.

Now what the french guy is doing here is basically tossing a coin and take a picture when comes head and come here posting the picture of the head. Kinda idiotic, isn't it?
  • #888
  • Dec 12, 2015 3:35pm Dec 12, 2015 3:35pm
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Thats not an edge, is statistical variance. If you toss a coin 100 times would you expect to have exactly 50 head and 50 tails? You may likely end up with 58 head and 42 tails or something like that. Would you say that head has an edge against tail? No, is still f**king 50/50 probability, what you see is only statistical variance in play. Take 1000 monkeys and let them trading the market, after a while you will see some monkey are rich, some monkeys blew their account, many monkeys are near breakeven, some monkeys are slightly good profit,...
*
what kind of monkey are you then? macaque, with a red ass full of hemorrhoids ? what you are doing here?
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #889
  • Dec 12, 2015 4:11pm Dec 12, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Thats not an edge, is statistical variance. If you toss a coin 100 times would you expect to have exactly 50 head and 50 tails? You may likely end up with 58 head and 42 tails or something like that. Would you say that head has an edge against tail? No, is still f**king 50/50 probability, what you see is only statistical variance in play. Take 1000 monkeys and let them trading the market, after a while you will see some monkey are rich, some monkeys blew their account, many monkeys are near breakeven, some monkeys are slightly good profit,...
Your focus shouldn't be on what isn't being posted but on what can be learned from the winning Trades that are being posted. I'd suggest you take the time to learn the concepts being shown here because if you can't see the value in it, it's you that are losing out. Use your time productively and open your eyes.
  • #890
  • Dec 12, 2015 8:18pm Dec 12, 2015 8:18pm
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Thats not an edge, is statistical variance. If you toss a coin 100 times would you expect to have exactly 50 head and 50 tails? You may likely end up with 58 head and 42 tails or something like that. Would you say that head has an edge against tail? No, is still f**king 50/50 probability, what you see is only statistical variance in play. Take 1000 monkeys and let them trading the market, after a while you will see some monkey are rich, some monkeys blew their account, many monkeys are near breakeven, some monkeys are slightly good profit,...
Why don't you toss a coin the same way as the French guy does? I wouldn't mind doing so, even though I make my money in a complete different way (the millipede way).
If you call it idiotic, why are you still here? Why hang out among idiots?
  • #891
  • Dec 13, 2015 6:41am Dec 13, 2015 6:41am
Quoting Mag357
{quote} Thats not an edge, is statistical variance. If you toss a coin 100 times would you expect to have exactly 50 head and 50 tails? You may likely end up with 58 head and 42 tails or something like that. Would you say that head has an edge against tail? No, is still f**king 50/50 probability, what you see is only statistical variance in play. Take 1000 monkeys and let them trading the market, after a while you will see some monkey are rich, some monkeys blew their account, many monkeys are near breakeven, some monkeys are slightly good profit,...
Funny how you provide logically sound examples which has absolutely no relevance to what I just posted.
In fact the illustration you just pointed out is a complete strawman fallacy and I will explain why.

Going back to your coin example of 100 tosses. You are right. Instead of expecting to have exactly 50 heads and 50 tails it is something like 58 heads and 42 tails or vice versa. What we do know however is that if we toss the coin 1000 or 10,000 or even a much higher number, the number of heads and tails becomes closer to a 50/50 probability. Hence there is no edge over time if a trader make a pure coin based bet.

You are also right about the monkey example also since absolute randomness do come into play. What you fail to realize is the concept of TIME in relation to the outcome of the monkeys if they keep trading. Since each account size is finite, a monkey who is either rich or break even still carries the risk of blowing their accounts over time. However if a monkey has already blown their account, then they no longer have the chance to become rich again since they no longer have anything to risk for potential gain in the first place.

So what relevance does fixed probability of a coin toss or a monkey like random decision making have with regards to the EDGE of a trader? NONE

What proof do you have that the french guy is tossing a coin in making his trading decisions? NONE

What is the easiest way to discern if a trader has an edge without even knowing what their edge is? EQUITY CURVE
  • #892
  • Dec 13, 2015 7:24am Dec 13, 2015 7:24am
I am on this market from 10 years, mainly reading the threads/ideas and "I stay in the shadow"...
what is pissing me off, is the guys which want to proove that thread starter is a SCAM... on EVERY thread... there are the same sh.theads..............
I can say one thing... S.UT the F.CK UP!
If you do not agree with thread starter then DO NOT READ IT!, trade your own way... eat a hotdog, buy some coffee, do some yoga or SOMETHING ELSE than trading!
Let the other think for themselves...............

PS
YONSEO you should study philosphy, what do you want to proove? those who trades forex are LUCKY? then why the hell my account is growing for the past years?? of course I am not a millionaire (at least yet ) but I think there are many of those traders who earns money on a const basis.
Do not confuse the others!

PS
TRD, FXENTROPY - good job guys! keep it up!
  • #893
  • Edited 1:15pm Dec 13, 2015 12:38pm | Edited 1:15pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} EQUITY CURVE

Speaking about equity curve....im just posting this screenshot without any link from myfxbook as its my own account and its not public and will never be. Its for internal refference and analysis.

For me its good enough
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #894
  • Dec 13, 2015 4:52pm Dec 13, 2015 4:52pm
Quoting michaelion
I am on this market from 10 years, mainly reading the threads/ideas and "I stay in the shadow"... what is pissing me off, is the guys which want to proove that thread starter is a SCAM... on EVERY thread... there are the same sh.theads.............. I can say one thing... S.UT the F.CK UP! If you do not agree with thread starter then DO NOT READ IT!, trade your own way... eat a hotdog, buy some coffee, do some yoga or SOMETHING ELSE than trading! Let the other think for themselves............... PS YONSEO you should study philosphy, what do you...
1. I don't recall saying anything regarding forex traders being just lucky.
2. There is no point using rhetorical questioning about your account growth if you haven't even proven it in the first place.
3. It was a direct reply to a thread hater so I haven't confused anyone. If you were confused, then this is not my issue.
  • #895
  • Dec 13, 2015 6:59pm Dec 13, 2015 6:59pm
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} Speaking about equity curve....im just posting this screenshot without any link from myfxbook as its my own account and its not public and will never be. Its for internal refference and analysis. For me its good enough {image}
Wow, what happened on the 25th of November? You have pressed the wrong button? ))

So what is your percentage of positive trades now, If you don't mind sharing.
  • #896
  • Dec 13, 2015 11:49pm Dec 13, 2015 11:49pm
Morning all.
UJ long
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  • #897
  • Dec 14, 2015 12:00am Dec 14, 2015 12:00am
40% drawdown...and he talks about risk management. Another day like that and if he isn't lucky enough the account will disappear. Typical curve of forex robots and martingale...it goes always well untill the account blows....and it will.
  • #898
  • Edited 3:15am Dec 14, 2015 2:07am | Edited 3:15am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Wow, what happened on the 25th of November? You have pressed the wrong button? )) So what is your percentage of positive trades now, If you don't mind sharing.
not the best but not the worst

essential is i made money, no matter what hater say
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"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #899
  • Dec 14, 2015 2:10am Dec 14, 2015 2:10am
Quoting cold chisel
{quote} Wow, what happened on the 25th of November? You have pressed the wrong button? )) So what is your percentage of positive trades now, If you don't mind sharing.
lol, yeah, i got into a fight with AUDCAD. and that fight put me into an unpleasant DD...dunno what happened with me at that time to take trades into such pair
"What would you attempt to do, if you knew your success was a certainty?"
  • #900
  • Dec 14, 2015 2:52am Dec 14, 2015 2:52am
Quoting Fxentropy
{quote} lol, yeah, i got into a fight with AUDCAD. and that fight put me into an unpleasant DD...dunno what happened with me at that time to take trades into such pair
That is very interesting. If you don't mind I'll stick around a bit, maybe I'll try some myself a bit later. For me, who takes no more than 10 trades a year, this all is very interesting. Just keep on doing it and others will follow.
By the way, who had won in your fight. I reckon AUD/CAD did. I never touched that pair, it doesn't trend that much.
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