EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

you must not been following the global economy plans if no hike happens the catastrophe for the dollar and a long-term recesion for the dollar. That is for sure if not hiking rates. If happens rate hike, the recesion is only an option so... The market confidence in dollar is strong, i cannot understand why people believe the fake data US claiming all the time but as long as they believe it i believe it too Everybody has their own strategy of playing, me i just made few pips from 1h candle re-shadowwing, which values 13 pips by 1 lot so i can finish for today, by the US closes the market is going to drop to show signifficant recover for the upcoming hike. I am not 100 % sure but for these important acts next week they would need a clousure of 1.0895 or lower as weekly points

You must have not read my post(s). NEVER did I say that there would be no hikes. I said "not in December", more likely January, even more likely February. This btw is historical fact.

There will not be any doom for any world currency within the next 3 months.

btw another W forming on the 5mn, it just may pop to 1.1050 or even my original guesstimate of 1.1075 close today....
I'd love to trade it but I have to sleep...and don't want to carry overnight over weekend and will not wake up early tomorrow to catch the close.

liquidity is tapering off friday eve, now is the time for them that big money can drive it up with few MMs and big scalpers getting in the way...

BTW my 1mn volat indi just spiked up to 1.0970, any closes under that would be considered potentially and probably bearish going into monday....

any close under 50 1.0950 and my 5mn volt is bearish too...

still think we will close at around 1.1035 though

It's at 1.099x now, I truly think it can get to 1.103 again.

Well the markets are really efficient and always revert to the mean after going to extremes don't they...

EURUSD closed at the MID of the last three trading days... and1mn and 5mn volatility jumped last couple hours of Friday to close evenly below it at 82 and 83 just a few pips below, so a change in volatility to the downside on Monday is going to be easier for the markets, than during the day on Friday.

The 1.1050 level looks like it's a significant area now and going to be even more so if it goes there and trades above it. It's an open field to run if it does.

The 1.0950 area should also become sticky again at least for a while on Monday.

A couple of scenarios:

1. 99% of retail and media is expecting a hike or convinced a hike is in order next week. Therefore, 99% of retail is not bullish or buying EurUsd and in fact shorting it. Then who would, and who was, and who will buy EurUsd into this? IBs and CBs.

2. Indications in fed fund rates (overnight bank rate) will start ticking up within 24 hours or so of said hike, and markets will begin to move quickly before the expected announcement and fall with, and then rise quickly again after announcement. Since info and news is digital and instant globally now, some bloggers and DJ/Bloomberg would be all over a rise in the overnight rates before the established media as would IBs.

The last several days have basically and unusually been unidirectional from the open, but don't expect this on Monday, unless there is some indication in the overnight bank rate which institutions will be watching like a hawk.

Here's a chart with my custom and proprietary 5mn base volatility over the last several days without all the noise...

I don't expect Monday to be so easily traded...

Outside of any rate hike affirmations or other dollar strengthening news Monday morning, I'm expecting a fake down as low as 1.0940 and a run up to 1.1105 - 1.1110.

Since Monday is usually low range I'm giving this late Monday evening or until Tuesday late afternoon to happen. Later in the week, with a NON rate hike confirmation I expect it to go to 1.12 / 1.13 / 1.14 / 1.1490 within 6 trading days.

This is all speculation, but that's the trading plan. A break below 1.0880 and I will be thinking of positioning the other way.

01:30 Long at 1.0970 SL at 1.0955 or higher depending on PA. Target is 1.1105

01:30 BST (Broker Server Time)

This is eurusd 4h chart the wite lines represent the previous monthly high/low the blue lines represent last weeks high/low and the red horizontal line are previous days high low watch this line as price get there. As we see price find resistance at last months high and its the seconde time that price get there this month, what we can see is that the last move up is getting weaker compared with the previous up move the long green candle in the middle of the chart .
​The green upwards sloping TL is an trendline that we can watch for an possibule short setup.
bother way we have to be carefully with long setup as price is in an uptrend and last impulsive move was to the upside we have to see an momentum move to the downside before we can look for an short set up .

​The other scenario is to wait for price to breake above last months hight and come back to retest it and look for an entry signal long in this case we have to see the upwards movements to be with momentum and slower momentum the the downwards movements for that we can go to the 1h tf or lower to see how price action behaive .

​For now there is no valid setup and patience is required. Im waiting for an short signal as price is at an resistance/supply area.

Huge early morning and early hour pin on the 5 15 30 and hourly formed, but it's only minutes into the hour. Like Friday, I think those that try to short this could get burned badly. That was A LOT of volume to move it up and down like that so quickly. A lot of fakes in early Asia trading but 5mn is showing 3 long candles in the last hour with HH and LL. Any shorters trying to *predict* a rate hike along with the rest of the retail industry will get burned IMO today and tomorrow, if there is any sign of a hike, or any word or mass speculation of it, the market will move violently down quickly, so for me, better to short stop order it, trading a short without a CLEAR break down or break through a TL is going to be just providing more fuel to the longs who are obviously pushing this thing up right now because a lot of liquidity is on the sidelines waiting. When Wed nights news hits, the liquidity waiting it out now will either buy it higher or short it hard at that time. In either case, the money buying now will have profits locked in and less of a risk going short at that time. The old stock trader adage works right now..."buy the rumor, sell the fact"

One mn volatility indi went all short at 1.0977 and 5mn went all short a while ago, I am now fully short at 1.0962.

It may *and probably will* bounce back and this is *probably* a fake, but I gotta go with the indies for now, they will turn again with a bounce later and if it keeps going down, I'll be on the right side of the ride.

Close at 60 and LONG again from 61.8

-8 and +2 for morning so far

Now bid at 65.1
1mn volat about to turn to upside and 5mn is not far behind. The downside fake is *probably* done for today. Still cautiously optimistic for move up to 1.1105 still.

Morning
Seeing a buy setup occurring for London open at 982.

Weekly pivot is at 980, so Franky can carry us to there.

Alternatively, Franky can keep us down, such that with London open. we break the day S2 at 953 and trade down to Weekly S2 at 929

A lot of "Analysts" are calling for .25 hike or "predicting" it. Last time, Adam Button a respected trader/analyst from another popular site, was one of few who said a hike would not happen, and he went all public against the tide and was right. Respect.

HOWEVER, this time he's joined just about everyone and is convinced that a hike will happen. He says (if I am quoting correctly) that the market hasn't priced in a March hike (implying that it's priced in a December hike already?). Not sure what is meant by that. If that is the case, and the market is moving as it is now and last week, we are set to move MUCH higher in EURUSD. Why?

IF the market has ALREADY priced in a 25bp hike and it happens, the market will go up on Thursday. If there is no hike this month (me thinks it won't happen this month) then, guess what....EURUSD goes up even more, US stock market closes on highs for 2015, and everyone's happy and Fed has excuse to raise in Q1/Q2 of 2016 instead, and the market can price in a 2016 rake hike after all the fireworks go out.

IF the "collective market" KNEW without a doubt that there would be hikes, e/u would be trading much lower right now, and since it hasn't (yet?) guys like Adam would be amassing massive shorts and would hold them through Thursday.

In all actuality, IF the Fed were to raise this week, the stock market will probably end the year on a crash and come new year, crash even more for a couple of months, and a mass influx of EUROS, YEN, YUAN, and RUBLES would flow into dollars (converted into U.S. Treasury Bills and Notes) from their CBs getting a much better rate of return on sitting cash in still what is considered the safest currency in the world. ECB would print more and BOJ will too (in addition to what they're going to print anyway) and send a bunch over to get a nice rate of return. They really don't care about interim currency weakening until their citizens start complaining of getting reamed on import costs. Right now the cost of oil is cheap, so it's an easy gamble for them, until the cost of oil goes up and then guess what...don't even want to think about that scenario, because wars are tied to oil.

Anyway, don't think that Yellen wants to become a scapegoat for a late 2015 crash. Opinion: No hikes this week.

I believe the fake is complete and done at 49.

Hello 1.11

A close above 68 now should confirm that short term intra day 1mn volat is now UP...until then still slightly cautious here.

Get ready for a WTF move to the upside, only purely technical traders are going to be the ones who even imagined it coming. The "analysts" are going to be saying WTF?

I may or may not post a detailed explanation of my reasoning later, but you can put me in the category of they are going to hike.

40 is my lower bound on this long. The push back line at 70 and 68 is getting lower, not good, however 50 as expected is still sticky. Any thrust up past 70 now is going to take and trap a lot of bears with it.

Still holding.... 1.11 before Tuesday night's announcement.

Upper volat line now at 72+ so closes above 72 will create some sparks.

There now looks to be an inverse h&s forming on the 1mn or what could be a double bottom at 45 or worse. We are now going to see how solid this 950 is.

Most analysts especially those based in NY and even more so Chicago will say look at the probability in the Fed Fund futures which are now ticking close to 80% of a rate hike. However, those figures are so slippery and change every month, and have little correlation to "predictive" behavior. I've yet to hear any analyst speak of the correlation between USD currency trading and interest rate derivative and credit default swaps which I think can be more predictive" of future currency moves. The thing is right now, they are not correlating with the Fed Funds futures probabilities right now, in fact, to me, recent data is suggesting no hikes, or at least a move up in EURUSD. That's why I expect a WTF move here soon. Most of this kind of discussion would be completely lost to retail media, so that's why it's not mentioned.

In fact, I have not traded futures options for years, but I'd be looking into premiums of long SPX and NDX calls right now. Since the stock markets are getting smashed. They could probably be had for pennies on the dollar right now, but have a good RR right now IMO. *sorry wrong thread*.

inverted h&s neckline broken to the upside plus 1mn volat is now changing back to upside rest of European session should see upward movement and carry into US session as well.

Sorry for taking up the floor. Done posting for rest of day and most likely for rest of week.

Good luck to ALL this week.