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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #2,721
  • Dec 11, 2015 5:26am Dec 11, 2015 5:26am
I do believe that it's about to go vertical and straight up here on this swing. Or else it will have a violent 20p move down, but unless there is just absolutely brilliant news for the dollar, the base has been formed for now and whoever formed it buying a ton on the dips.
  • #2,722
  • Dec 11, 2015 5:37am Dec 11, 2015 5:37am
all green US news and EU going up..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,723
  • Dec 11, 2015 5:37am Dec 11, 2015 5:37am
28 to 31 was the base and they just couldn't break it, only news scalpers were in on that and as I said more buying on the dip, watch this thing fly now that the base has been duly tested and untouched.
  • #2,724
  • Dec 11, 2015 5:39am Dec 11, 2015 5:39am
Quoting sanvulture
all green US news and EU going up..
the news was not brilliant and surprising enough...big money and big analysts have already factored this small retail gain off with lower oil prices, it's ho hum and not reason enough for the fed to counter with a rate increase.
  • #2,725
  • Edited 6:16am Dec 11, 2015 6:01am | Edited 6:16am
this 950 has been like a magnet to prices understandably so, but being long here it's more like poo attracting flies.

There's a small W forming on the 5mn and a massive W forming on the 1mn. Now's the time.

Actually took a step back and there's a massive one on the 5 too...


I think those that are selling on this 5mn pin at 70 are going to get burned this time. 70 is sticky today, but it's going to pop hard now.
  • #2,726
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:18am Dec 11, 2015 6:18am
Big money has been buying dips all day and waited for news and bought more, they're not going to let it fall this time...they are going to push it up and get paid.

min high today 1.1010 upper possible 1.1075 if everyone gets in late friday here.

and it's not going to fly back down to 940 either or 975 don't think so

The traders at that French bank are whooping it up right now, and their retail customers are saying WTF?
  • #2,727
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:24am Dec 11, 2015 6:24am
2 stupid shorts bit the dust..

and its too late to buy EU..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,728
  • Edited 6:40am Dec 11, 2015 6:27am | Edited 6:40am
Quoting sanvulture
all green US news and EU going up..
that should have been your first sign...

the market (those that have the power to move prices) is smarter than you.

The market is not collectively all of us. It's BIG money (whales) that trades wholesale and then retail small fish like you and me (the little sucker fish) and sharks (the MMs), the smart sucker fish, stay as close to the whales as possible and protect themselves from the sharks as well as eat crumbs left by the whales. The whales usually swim together and protect themselves from sharks collectively, sometimes a lone whale or baby whale loses it's way and gets devoured by the sharks. Of course there are also sucker fish that also try to stick to sharks too, they think they are predators but are really sucker fish too, but if they follow along with strong sharks they eat well too.

So you gotta ask yourself, are you going to stick with the sharks or stick with the whales, it's hard to with both at the same time unless you are an extremely shrewd sucker fish. One of a kind. Rare.

I've been trying to swim with the sharks, but know that I'm better off swimming with the whales. It's a personal decision.

The thing with sharks is that when they get hungry, they will eat anything and sometimes attack things that are not even food and kill themselves in the process or get a bad meal. They are always swimming and looking for the next meal. Whereas whales swim back and forth to their breeding grounds every year, every cycle.
  • #2,729
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:39am Dec 11, 2015 6:39am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} that should have been your first sign... the market (those that have the power to move prices) is smarter than you. The market is not collectively all of us. It's BIG money (whales) that trades wholesale and then retail small fish like you and me (the little sucker fish) and sharks (the MMs), the smart sucker fish, stay as close to the whales as possible and protect themselves from the sharks as well as eat crumbs left by the whales. The whales usually swim together and protect themselves from sharks collectively, sometimes a lone whale...
and i dont even know swimming.. but i get ur point.. being with the whales seems better, at least they wont try to eat u..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,730
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:45am Dec 11, 2015 6:45am
I suppose there will be some folks here that are selling at 00 even, but again this move JUST went vertical, the next breath will be at 30 now IMO, it may pause at 1.1010 for a blip, but 1.1030 seems logical now, and 50/60/75 hopeful.

this is a great combo of short covering and new buy stops being hit at the same time...
  • #2,731
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:57am Dec 11, 2015 6:57am
Out at 1.1019...maybe a little early but I'll take it.

+84p 1W 0L

Theoretically this move has much more left (at least to1.11 but it's Friday and time sleep now.
  • #2,732
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:00am Dec 11, 2015 7:00am
Quoting Pipologist
Out at 1.1019...maybe a little early but I'll take it. +84p 1W 0L Theoretically this move has much more left (at least to1.11 but it's Friday and time sleep now.


i was only watching the chart all the time..
Dont trade like me..
  • #2,733
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:07am Dec 11, 2015 7:07am
Those that shorted at 30 did well with fast pippage. That UoM data is good, but only scalpers trade that data, everyone knows it's not as important as the *official* govt numbers...

I expect the PB to reverse back up here at 75 or 70, worst case 60 and trek back up into late hours tonight, however not trading it...

Good night all have a nice w/e.
  • #2,734
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:07am Dec 11, 2015 7:07am
Nice one Pipo

I didn't reenter, did some bad longs sp on the last leg down on the 1m but recovered them just now. Going into the weekend above BE so that's fine!
  • #2,735
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:19am Dec 11, 2015 7:19am
When I started this thread I was trying and hoping to trade more like a shark...and be able to swim and reverse like a shark.

I knew the market would PB at 30, I was going to get out at 30, instead I moved like a whale and saw it dip to 20 before closing...didn't have the teeth to just spit out what I had and take a new bite at 30.

A shark would have already determined to let loose at 30 institutionally instinctively and attacked the short side immediately.

The sharks made 90p 70p in 25 min., it took all day for me to get 84p, I'm not a whale, and I know the whales will eventually make more, but when there's a feeding frenzy sharks feast well and feast fast.

Kudos to the sharks and those who swim with them who shorted at 1.1030, hats off to you. I still have a lot of teeth that need to grow.
  • #2,736
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:39am Dec 11, 2015 7:39am
Why I think longs are still in play...volatility....3 charts (indi lines and lines that look like blocks are proprietary, and what I luckily used yesterday and today, as they work well in day long trends)

Right now market still has to fall to 1.0925 for short to go back in play, don't see it happening today or Monday unless news over weekend

1mn with tightest zoom, 5mn and 5mn with tighest zoom
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  • #2,737
  • Dec 11, 2015 7:52am Dec 11, 2015 7:52am
sorry for being out of the thread for a while i was payin more attention to the main eur usd thread so been more active there.
My forecasts are different with the euro thats why i started opening shorts today starting from the 0960 all the way to 1.10 so overall my entry point is calculated to be 1.0985. The good data for USD cleared the way for the hike next week and blew the eurozone plans for a recovery. Mario Draghi in a response to a Reuters journalist yesterday commented that the euro didn't progressed as their plans after the rate change. So Far the dollar is doing great and December as i said many times is the highest income month in USA economy, and proven by the recent news, which i believe will occur again but in calcs for january 2016 when the business declares their incomes. Dollar will progress to increase its strenght to parity if its not yet happened or even more. The deep connection between the dollar and the oil started to separate as the oil continued to drop and it seems that cheap oil won't necessary mean strong dollar and oposite.
My forecast about the december is retest of 1.05* bottom and probably expand with new bottoms.
Very short scenario is that 1h candle with the very big shadow if not filled will fill in next hour and retest the daily Pivot 64 and possibly DM1 - 1.0935
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #2,738
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:10am Dec 11, 2015 8:10am
Quoting IcoHristov
sorry for being out of the thread for a while i was payin more attention to the main eur usd thread so been more active there. My forecasts are different with the euro thats why i started opening shorts today starting from the 0960 all the way to 1.10 so overall my entry point is calculated to be 1.0985. The good data for USD cleared the way for the hike next week and blew the eurozone plans for a recovery. Mario Draghi in a response to a Reuters journalist yesterday commented that the euro didn't progressed as their plans after the rate change....

So technically you are betting that the next hour is an evening star completion on the 1hr and that will trigger the move to 1.05.

Of course the 4 hour says that if we pop through 1.1050 and hold it that 1.15 is in play.

I know what you are saying, but even dow jones reported that the market moved on *conviction* that the fed will raise without any hint of the fed doing so...

If the fed were to raise 25p in DECEMBER or rather NEXT WEEK, they would warn other central banks before they did by about 24 hours or overnight during the weekend or an hour or two before close. If not other world markets would get slammed, and could cause a crash in the US market, or so much volume on the day that it would cause a problem for the us markets even if it was bullish for them, it's a very delicate situation, but the Fed funds overnight rate would would start ticking up, which is a warning first to retail banks in the U.S., so all this speculation is nice, but I believe the big money that is run by IB's know this and they have been hedging against the dollar all week. I don't think that there will be 50p spikes within 30 to 60 minutes for the rest of the day.
  • #2,739
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:13am Dec 11, 2015 8:13am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} So technically you are betting that the next hour is an evening star completion on the 1hr and that will trigger the move to 1.05. Of course the 4 hour says that if we pop through 1.1050 and hold it that 1.15 is in play. I know what you are saying, but even dow jones reported that the market moved on *conviction* that the fed will raise without any hint of the fed doing so... If the fed were to raise 25p in DECEMBER or rather NEXT WEEK, they would warn other central banks before they did by about 24 hours or overnight during the weekend...
not quiet i was sayin i f that 1.0935 is reached it will probably open the test of 1.08. After the rate hike if occurs the market will slam somewhere without concerning pivots or so you know that 300-400 pips in E/U during such events is like ticks . Short term i can only say in short term. I do not make any relations between short term and long term, there lots of falls and ups before any big plan occurs
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #2,740
  • Dec 11, 2015 8:30am Dec 11, 2015 8:30am
Quoting IcoHristov
{quote} not quiet i was sayin i f that 1.0935 is reached it will probably open the test of 1.08. After the rate hike if occurs the market will slam somewhere without concerning pivots or so you know that 300-400 pips in E/U during such events is like ticks . Short term i can only say in short term. I do not make any relations between short term and long term, there lots of falls and ups before any big plan occurs
of course, you are right.
I just don't think it will get to 1.0935 today again, I think it will close around 1.1035

and then next week fake up to 1.11 maybe 1.1150 and then depending on hike or no hike (no hike is likely and realistic for now based on historical timing, jan or feb is more like it, probably feb) then after the news of no hike quick run up to 1.1350 and then move up to 1.15 before .10 or .15 hike and then move down to 1.10 / 1.08, no parity until hike of at least 25bp from now.

Of course, it's fun to dream about parity and how much we'll all make in hours and days, but big money/global economy sized money just doesn't move that fast, it takes weeks and min. 3 months to happen.
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