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The One: Price Action and Reaction

  • #581
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:42am Dec 7, 2015 3:42am
Hi Eaglestar

I have a question. Last Thursday saw massive moves in a few pairs based on news (see charts). The price action around these events is completely different to that preceding it and after the even price settles back down to its more normal flow. My question is how you deal with these things in your charting. I tend to see them as a reset - wait for price to form some structure after the event and then draw using that, discounting what went before and ignoring the action that the news itself created. But I'm wondering if there is a better way to deal with these extreme moves.

Thanks in advance

B.
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  • #582
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:59am Dec 7, 2015 3:59am
Posted this AR set of USDJPY few days ago
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Nice to see frequency at work
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Possible entry would have been on retest, also good spot because of multiple confluence factors.
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #583
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:12am Dec 7, 2015 4:12am
Quoting bartlby37
Hi Eaglestar I have a question. Last Thursday saw massive moves in a few pairs based on news (see charts). The price action around these events is completely different to that preceding it and after the even price settles back down to its more normal flow. My question is how you deal with these things in your charting. I tend to see them as a reset - wait for price to form some structure after the event and then draw using that, discounting what went before and ignoring the action that the news itself created. But I'm wondering if there is a better...
Makes sense, look at this example:
ECB event on EURJPY, 1H and 4H messy but daily still makes sense, also new 30M fork.
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Of course would be interested too in eaglestar's take on this...
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #584
  • Dec 7, 2015 7:08pm Dec 7, 2015 7:08pm
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  • #585
  • Dec 7, 2015 8:03pm Dec 7, 2015 8:03pm
Elliptical Action Reaction Lines
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  • #586
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:07pm Dec 7, 2015 10:07pm
Quoting bartlby37
{quote} I think this is a great comment. I see lots of sliding parallels being drawn - they look great in hindsight - I draw a sliding parallel off this point and get all these touches on the line and could have entered and made lots of pips etc etc. But how do you know which point to draw a sliding parallel from in real time and why are you picking that point and not some other, and do you pick the same point consistently or not and if not how do you know the point you're picking has any validity? I'm trying to draw consistently so I've not made...
For me what you drew is correct, when price makes extremes and then breaks down quickly often time you will see a sliding parallel form the same as when you have to use a modified schiff. Think about it in the same way. When price breaks toward the median line quickly many times time will catch up but in a diagonal mpl that is also a sliding parallel. Just be careful that your sliding parallel has good frequency and a couple touches because you can get burned. The higher probability trades are on the median line first then the sliding parallels can be taken into consideration.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #587
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:10pm Dec 7, 2015 10:10pm
Quoting juriFX
{quote} very interesting! So true. I remember that once Tim said in one of his webinars that once a sliding parallel (SH) gets invalidated he is done and won't redraw any SH, especially if the SH is beyond the upper/lower median line (breakout from fork). The point of using SH is to catch a fork shift when time extends while price is lagging behind (still same frequency). {quote} I think it is called "doubling the range", or action reaction set, or as above -- so below, or frequency etc...
This is basically the same things that I was saying. If you are watching and drawing lines enough you will begin to see what I am talking about. You can also go back and scroll WITHOUT lines to get your mind to start to see the patterns. Remember, the lines are imaginary, but are useful TOOLS to help you in trading.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #588
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:45pm Dec 7, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting duy90
@Eaglestar Which of the two forks are correct? I have analysed EURUAD on monthly TF and im confused which of the 2 forks i should follow {image}
Here you go. Looks like we are about to resume an uptrend
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #589
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:49pm Dec 7, 2015 10:49pm
Quoting duy90
{quote} Thank you for the prompt answer bartlby I also thought Red looks more like correct way of drawing the fork however, I saw post #561 where Eaglestar is drawin from High High Low as well. Therefore i was a bit confused however I will take into consideration your insights about red medianline and blue upperline crossing
1. Not my picture only posted because the flow of the thread and thinking on sacred geometry.

2. probably a modified schiff, reverse median line, or alternate pivot or gap pivot.

3. If you don't know what I just said in 2. then keep practicing.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #590
  • Dec 7, 2015 11:17pm Dec 7, 2015 11:17pm
Quoting bartlby37
Hi Eaglestar I have a question. Last Thursday saw massive moves in a few pairs based on news (see charts). The price action around these events is completely different to that preceding it and after the even price settles back down to its more normal flow. My question is how you deal with these things in your charting. I tend to see them as a reset - wait for price to form some structure after the event and then draw using that, discounting what went before and ignoring the action that the news itself created. But I'm wondering if there is a better...
I think you answered your own question?

but I think you are looking for my own perspective.

I try not to trade big news days. Go for a walk or do something not trade related, unless you have very good scalping skills like KennyZ or others on this site.

Wait for the reaction, do not trade before the event as you are likely to get whipsawed. Shane talked about this in a recent webinar. We are trading the swing, so unless you are in a trade already, do not trade before news, and wait for the reaction to the event, and see if you see a CLEAR setup. Don't force a trade.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #591
  • Edited Dec 8, 2015 12:39am Dec 7, 2015 11:24pm | Edited Dec 8, 2015 12:39am
Quoting Adrian7G
Hello! New one here. My current market opinions w/h4. I am waiting for your feedback. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
These are all very good and clear I think that for help you could not draw the smaller forks if you are looking for smaller timeframe entries, but it is up to you. Most people have problems with multiple timeframes with diagonal lines. If you want to do this, then you have to practice it.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #592
  • Dec 7, 2015 11:36pm Dec 7, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting livindaylite
{quote} Hi Eaglestar As with everything HTF is easier and lining things up in the right (top-down) order is what I try to do anyway to make sure I'm in alignment with the bigger picture. Been drawing plenty of forks but not getting any sense of pattern that one might rely on. Sometimes, ,price seems to respect a line, whether median, or parallel other times it doesn't, so one draws another one and its the same, maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. How then is it predictive? Sometimes, I can shape-fit a fork after the fact but I wouldn't have known to...
What is the context of the market?

Where is the last correct ABC low high low or high low high?

Are you trading with the trend or against the trend?

This is strategy that takes a lot of practice and work. I have been trading these for a while, it is simple but not easy.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #593
  • Dec 7, 2015 11:39pm Dec 7, 2015 11:39pm
I have more charts I don't always show for the meaning of SIMPLICITY AND UNDERSTANDING. Here is one with the weekly Open and the most recent pitchfork and sliding parallel.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #594
  • Dec 7, 2015 11:43pm Dec 7, 2015 11:43pm
is it easier for me to give you the key or let you find it? Give you a fish or a fishing pole? Remember I am a guide... the work and practice is up to you.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #595
  • Dec 8, 2015 12:57am Dec 8, 2015 12:57am
Forks are drawn from Pivots--The major swings show the important forks. The minor swings show the minor/mini forks. Do not be confused.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #596
  • Dec 8, 2015 1:17am Dec 8, 2015 1:17am
more pivot work
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #597
  • Dec 8, 2015 1:30am Dec 8, 2015 1:30am
Quoting eaglestar
more pivot work {image} {image} {image} {image}
Please let me know if these charts help, and if you want me to mark up more, or explain anything. I am here to help
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #598
  • Dec 8, 2015 3:50am Dec 8, 2015 3:50am
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} Please let me know if these charts help, and if you want me to mark up more, or explain anything. I am here to help
good charts!
I have some doubts about pivots.
These charts should be clear, if not let me know.

C pivot is not really a major swing high, but is this still a valid ML?
Also the B pivot is not major...
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B pivot is only a minor low pivot, if at all
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The same for A pivot. But I've seen this in a webinar of Tim...
Sometimes he chooses a minor pivot as his A because of frequency on the mid ML...
Is this correct?
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Also Tim uses what he calls width median lines.
These are useful and describe price better when the C pivot is more expanded in time.
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Thank you eaglestar for your insights
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #599
  • Dec 8, 2015 3:58am Dec 8, 2015 3:58am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
Quoting eaglestar
{quote} Please let me know if these charts help, and if you want me to mark up more, or explain anything. I am here to help

Hello

would be nice if you can make your rules clearer

1. at which point in time is a fork valid for you ?
2. when do you enter a trade - second linetouch for example ?
better at median line or action and reaction lines ?
3. exit if touch next line ?

made be you can show a trade chart you finished for better understanding

thanks a lot

green pips
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #600
  • Dec 8, 2015 5:19am Dec 8, 2015 5:19am
Quoting eaglestar
more pivot work {image} {image} {image} {image}
Great charting Eaglestar, thank you for that.

Could you please give me your sight for pair USD/JPY 4H, from my view its not clear, we are in tight range about 120 pips. From past we could see that this pair likes to do this ranging before push higher/lower from range.

Is it some kind of energy zone that Tim mentioned in his webinars?

Thanks for opinions!
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