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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,021
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:06am Dec 4, 2015 8:06am
This thread is so quiet despite the fact that its OPEC meeting day.
  • #2,022
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:30am Dec 4, 2015 8:30am
Quoting don73
This thread is so quiet despite the fact that its OPEC meeting day.
everything has been said month or so ago..., do not touch it unless it's fall really low, who knows where that low...? I will start looking at oil after 38$, there's lots of other instruments to trade with less headache...
  • #2,023
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:37pm Dec 4, 2015 3:37pm
Quoting medvic
{quote} everything has been said month or so ago..., do not touch it unless it's fall really low, who knows where that low...? I will start looking at oil after 38$, there's lots of other instruments to trade with less headache...
what about this look .............bouncy bouncy.....WWWIII
http://www.conspiracyclub.co/2015/12...n-middle-east/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usoildec42015mnsupport.png Size: 93 KB
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,024
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:26pm Dec 4, 2015 4:26pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} what about this look .............bouncy bouncy.....WWWIII http://www.conspiracyclub.co/2015/12...n-middle-east/ {image}
  • #2,025
  • Dec 6, 2015 3:20pm Dec 6, 2015 3:20pm
Nat Gas is heading below 2.00 and WTI is heading below $30 in 2016. Production isn't slowing down, and nearly 65% of the rigs that were online last year are offline now.

And if some kind of credit bubble or financial bubble ensues (since 75% of the world is already in a recession) than all bets are off for WTI going back above 40 long term.

Ladies & Gents: We could be in the presence of a decade long sub $40 oil period from 2016-2025. I am not joking about this.


Reasons: The cost to drill is significantly lower and uncovering way more than the world expected. In order for inventories to decline the middle east would need to slow down production by 10-15% but they can't. They have demand to fulfill. Not to mention Australia and Canada have reserves that havent even hit the market. Did I mention Iran supply too??
  • #2,026
  • Dec 6, 2015 5:05pm Dec 6, 2015 5:05pm
Quoting yeniful
Nat Gas is heading below 2.00 and WTI is heading below $30 in 2016. Production isn't slowing down, and nearly 65% of the rigs that were online last year are offline now. And if some kind of credit bubble or financial bubble ensues (since 75% of the world is already in a recession) than all bets are off for WTI going back above 40 long term. Ladies & Gents: We could be in the presence of a decade long sub $40 oil period from 2016-2025. I am not joking about this. Reasons: The cost to drill is significantly lower and uncovering way more than the world...
Agree. And there is always alternatives - which although the costs benefits decrease while carbon based fuels are "cheap" - there is increasing pressures to use them. And as well with more efficient, less expensive versions of solar and wind and geothermal coming out into the market.

Granted these alternatives are not in any way driving carbon based fuels to get more competitive in their prices. It is strictly supply and demand (most oversupply) for them. But it sure doesn't help.

Here is another snippet of an email newsletter I get:

OPEC did not come to a decision for one main reason. Iran is set to return to the market around 500,000 to 1 mb/d could come online over the next year or so. OPEC said it would revisit the situation in the next few months to evaluate next steps.

What to make of this? On the one hand, nothing changes in terms of where actual oil production is going. All members of OPEC will continue to produce as much as they can, just as before. The current target of 30 mb/d has not held back members from collectively exceeding the target. The new reality is that OPEC is (sort of) officially recognizing that countries can produce above the 30 mb/d target.

On the other hand, the non-decision does have symbolic value, which was not lost on the oil markets. That is, OPEC acknowledged it is not prepared to cut for the foreseeable future, so the elevated levels of production will continue. The global oil markets remain oversupplied, and OPEC will not be the one to rescue the market, at least not for another six months. Iran will come back to the market, and OPEC is more likely to raise the ceiling in recognition of that fact, rather than cut. OPEC said it would work with non-OPEC producers in 2016 to see if an accommodation could be reached, but that remains unlikely. WTI was down 1.6 percent following the meeting on December 4, and Brent was down 0.5 percent.
  • #2,027
  • Dec 6, 2015 5:22pm Dec 6, 2015 5:22pm
Quoting yeniful
Nat Gas is heading below 2.00 and WTI is heading below $30 in 2016. Production isn't slowing down, and nearly 65% of the rigs that were online last year are offline now. And if some kind of credit bubble or financial bubble ensues (since 75% of the world is already in a recession) than all bets are off for WTI going back above 40 long term. Ladies & Gents: We could be in the presence of a decade long sub $40 oil period from 2016-2025. I am not joking about this. Reasons: The cost to drill is significantly lower and uncovering way more than the world...
It will not last for a decade. IMHO of course.

Reason: loss of revenue is going to cause big problems in countries like Venezuela, Libya and maybe Russia. Something will brew-up to reduce the over-supply.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,028
  • Dec 7, 2015 12:03am Dec 7, 2015 12:03am
I am short oil. Hopefully it does not spike up now
  • #2,029
  • Dec 7, 2015 1:38am Dec 7, 2015 1:38am
First casualty of the oil price? Venezuela's long-standing government is soundly defeated at the polls.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,030
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:32am Dec 7, 2015 3:32am
Quoting Exodus
First casualty of the oil price? Venezuela's long-standing government is soundly defeated at the polls.
you think the new one will more US friendly ?
  • #2,031
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:56am Dec 7, 2015 3:56am
Quoting nutts
{quote} you think the new one will more US friendly ?
....I didn't say that was an improvement

Did the US do something to make the Venezuelans more US-friendly?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,032
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:11am Dec 7, 2015 4:11am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} ....I didn't say that was an improvement Did the US do something to make the Venezuelans more US-friendly?
just had a read on Henrique Capriles seems indeed that he was in the his latter years of education attending in NY and Europe, so safe to say he is US friendly as opposed to Maduro who supported nationalisation of the oil industry. Will be interesting to see if Henrique Capriles is open to privatisation of the oil industry .......my bet is yes he is ' for the people' lol
  • #2,033
  • Dec 7, 2015 6:03am Dec 7, 2015 6:03am
Potential Double bottom imminent on Brent Crude @ 4,220, may push a bit lower, but I am expecting a reaction at around this level and a move to the north, though how sustained it'll be is impossible to say right now, though the Daily 100sma @ 4,770 would be a target over the coming weeks.
  • #2,034
  • Dec 7, 2015 8:36am Dec 7, 2015 8:36am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} ....I didn't say that was an improvement Did the US do something to make the Venezuelans more US-friendly?
The only way to make a Socialist happy is to give them everything they want and at no cost.

Next the reformers need to make the voters happy and oust the former busdriver - send him back to the garage.

Meanwhile they will have many, many more years of suffering because of low price of oil but even more so due to the past two decades of corruption and mismanagement of the country and its resources.
  • #2,035
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:09am Dec 7, 2015 10:09am
Quoting cat
Potential Double bottom imminent on Brent Crude @ 4,220, may push a bit lower, but I am expecting a reaction at around this level and a move to the north, though how sustained it'll be is impossible to say right now, though the Daily 100sma @ 4,770 would be a target over the coming weeks.
Double bottom is gone. Oil headed to $30 soon
  • #2,036
  • Dec 7, 2015 10:51am Dec 7, 2015 10:51am
US oil is coming to USD35 very soon
  • #2,037
  • Dec 7, 2015 1:00pm Dec 7, 2015 1:00pm
From a technical point of view... weekly chart shows possible support area between 30 and 40$.
But who knows?
This thing could be going <10$ !
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,038
  • Dec 7, 2015 1:48pm Dec 7, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting _BBKing_
From a technical point of view... weekly chart shows possible support area between 30 and 40$. But who knows? This thing could be going <10$ !
shock horror
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,039
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:15pm Dec 7, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} shock horror
yeah...
but hey, there is a loooong (about 15years) consensus area between 10 and 30
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,040
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:08pm Dec 7, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Double bottom is gone. Oil headed to $30 soon
It has. Now falling towards 3,600 - 500 where i have potential support. I'll post again if it gets there.
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