Prediction is impossible when anything is possible | Forex Factory

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Prediction is impossible when anything is possible

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 12:49am Dec 7, 2015 12:38am | Edited 12:49am
Plain and simple really, when anything is possible prediction becomes impossible.

This is a great video which can be applied to the markets. So before I get people attacking me here based on this statement, I would seriously recommend you to approach this with an open mind and begin watching from 3.40 in this video until at least 9.00 to see the effects of how a chaotic system behaves, and the effects this has on it.

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I hope to be able to see some interesting discussion here.

And to be clear, I'm not stating that returns can't be made from the market, not at all, but what I am saying is returns cannot be made based upon on our own analysis. This is because there are greater external forces at hand here beyond us that far exceed what we as humans are capable of making accurate predictions from.

So, what am I talking about here?

Put simply and truly, luck, otherwise known as chance.

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I would also recommend watching from 6.40 - 10.00 detailing how this is an inevitability of the market.

I hope to be able to shed some harsh realities here so that traders here can be better equipped when taking on the markets, and doing so with the right type of psychology and in a non-egotistical manner.

Because to think you can really have a say where a currency or stock is going, you are fooling only yourself.
  • #2
  • Dec 7, 2015 2:31am Dec 7, 2015 2:31am
Do you see what I see? :nerd:

People say I have an ego problem.
I question them...

Who has an ego problem:
Is it I, who advocates that the future is uncertain, chaotic and unpredictable...
Or is it the person who believes he has the power to predict the future?

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What is interesting is that most are not aware of their cognitive bias when looking at reality.
Most people will fall into 2 category of seeing the above pattern:
Either they will see a breakout, resulting into an ABC/123 formation
Or they will see a bounce, resulting into a double top formation

Very few people will see both in the picture below:

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And a very small number of individual see things in its truest reality.
Here, take a look through my eyes and see what I see...

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Well said, Sailyfee "when anything is possible prediction becomes impossible."

You can't predict the future... you can only manage the present.
And you can't manage a trade with limited perception or limited thinking (or believing you have some godly predictive powers).
Or else you will end up like this...

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When dogs do it, it is cute.
When people do it, it is sad to look at.


Peace,
CrucialPoint
  • #3
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:18am Dec 7, 2015 3:18am
For those who are interested..
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  • #4
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:27am Dec 7, 2015 3:27am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting CrucialPoint
Do you see what I see? :nerd:
I see probabilities in both directions but not certainties. Probabilities are based on historical data, which I used to define my swings on my chosen lower time-frame. To understand how often price breaks my defined swings or bounces. Also to understand how much it is likely to break them by.

I found that the highest probability (not guaranteed) is up but it depends on what you want. As I am looking to scalp pips I see a higher probability of price moving up in my favour before hitting my chosen stop loss. Further distances away it becomes unclear and probabilities are uncertain.

So once I decide to enter it is all about managing the trade to capture as much as possible or limit the effect of price moving against me.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #5
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:55am Dec 7, 2015 3:55am
I think that instead of talking about predictions and probabilities to see the future of price movements we should talk about facts.

Look where the price has gone, the last millisecond, second, minute, hour... and try to follow the quicker you can.

And still less people see the fakes...

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #6
  • Dec 7, 2015 3:57am Dec 7, 2015 3:57am
Quoting broketrader
I think that instead of talking about predictions and probabilities to see the future of price movements we should talk about facts. Look where the price has gone, the last millisecond, second, minute, hour... and try to follow the quicker you can. And still less people see the fakes... {image}
again.. this is no market, its a pretty pattern you've drawn in paint. That could be a tic chart or a daily chart, both work to some extent the same way I believe but both in completely different context.. The tic would move on raw order flow the daily on sentiment, positioning. Same but different,

Your chart represents the mindset of every losing trader, some fantasy pattern constructed not by the beautiful forces of the market itself, but some lazy concoction of self interest.
Time hides Nothing
  • #7
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:03am Dec 7, 2015 4:03am
Quoting SaiLyfee
For those who are interested.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ettre2Uz6bs
Cheers for this
Time hides Nothing
  • #8
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:24am Dec 7, 2015 4:24am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} again.. this is no market, its a pretty pattern you've drawn in paint. That could be a tic chart or a daily chart, both work to some extent the same way I believe but both in completely different context.. The tic would move on raw order flow the daily on sentiment, positioning. Same but different, Your chart represents the mindset of every losing trader, some fantasy pattern constructed not by the beautiful forces of the market itself, but some lazy concoction of self interest.
You are kidding right ?

Here is your fake double top, is this market enough for you ?

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #9
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:29am Dec 7, 2015 4:29am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Cheers for this
I'm glad I could share this with you thanks for taking an interest. My main objective here is just to get some of the people here on the forum to be able to look at the markets and see it from a realistic perspective, not one dreamed up in the imagination.

Price doesn't care about the past, the future of price is simply determined in the moment.
  • #10
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:33am Dec 7, 2015 4:33am
Quoting Neio
{quote}I found that the highest probability (not guaranteed) is up but it depends on what you want. As I am looking to scalp pips I see a higher probability of price moving up in my favour before hitting my chosen stop loss. Further distances away it becomes unclear and probabilities are uncertain. So once I decide to enter it is all about managing the trade to capture as much as possible or limit the effect of price moving against me. Regards Neio
You predict.
  • #11
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:36am Dec 7, 2015 4:36am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} I'm glad I could share this with you thanks for taking an interest. My main objective here is just to get some of the people here on the forum to be able to look at the markets and see it from a realistic perspective, not one dreamed up in the imagination. Price doesn't care about the past, the future of price is simply determined in the moment.
Thats a good goal, ya know the best trader ive ever seen, what surprised me the most was this guys cluelessnes about where tye market could go... Sure he clears 300 pips a week no worries but after he was in the trade, despite his vast market knowledge and amazingly accurate ability, he was as lost as the nxt guy, still wity tye could have should have would have problem we all face as traders...

Know one knows, the market meeds to ask the question, and then hetbthe amswer, the answer never preceeds the question. So i have a system for the new year my never ending problem is this answer to the unknown question. Its going to take me the rest of the month to come up with something consistently applicable.
Time hides Nothing
  • #12
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:38am Dec 7, 2015 4:38am
This fadeaway is not prediction, basket after basket, from both man that delivered NBA championships to another.

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  • #13
  • Dec 7, 2015 4:39am Dec 7, 2015 4:39am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting skyway
{quote} You predict.
Isn't anyone who enters a trade predicting to some degree?

I think the difference is the mindset after the trade is entered.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #14
  • Dec 7, 2015 5:29am Dec 7, 2015 5:29am
The moment came.....game6 with 13secs on the clock.....he delivered the basket at the buzzer...... the usual way......from PRACTICE every single day.

Was fear of failure a motivator?

'I never feared about my skills because I put in the work.'

'Work ethics eliminates fear.' ........Michael Jordan

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  • #15
  • Dec 7, 2015 6:18am Dec 7, 2015 6:18am
Quoting Neio
{quote} Isn't anyone who enters a trade predicting to some degree? I think the difference is the mindset after the trade is entered.
Of course they are, even if in their own mind only. Ask yourself. You set a SL & a TP. Is that not predicting an outcome.?
Question is. How did you come up with that SL & TP.?
My "CuzzyBro" KO showed y'all how to do it 18 months ago. It's easy when you know how.
Combat crazy markets with crazy trading
  • #16
  • Dec 7, 2015 7:33am Dec 7, 2015 7:33am
Love it all!

This thread is starting out quite well, imho.

In my Vast Experience ( ) I've learned only two things:
I know absolutely Nothing... except
During fights, battles, war, etc., it's guaranteed that the outcome will produce ONLY Losers.

And maybe one other thing that I'm highly suspicious of, that being price never continues in one direction forever.


Always in the question!
  • #17
  • Dec 7, 2015 8:00am Dec 7, 2015 8:00am
What has helped my trading recently is realizing a couple market truths (nothing groundbreaking here):

Price goes up sometimes. Price goes down sometimes.

Price tends to stay in a range every now and again, but it trends more often that it ranges.

Smart traders, will ask themselves one question and that is:

How can I use the above information to get pips out of the market consistently?
  • #18
  • Dec 7, 2015 6:39pm Dec 7, 2015 6:39pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Do you see what I see? :nerd: People say I have an ego problem. I question them... Who has an ego problem: Is it I, who advocates that the future is uncertain, chaotic and unpredictable... Or is it the person who believes he has the power to predict the future? {image} What is interesting is that most are not aware of their cognitive bias when looking at reality. Most people will fall into 2 category of seeing the above pattern: Either they will see a breakout, resulting into an ABC/123 formation Or they will see a bounce, resulting into...
In regards to your first chart, professional traders never consider entering the market at the point you show. You are either already in, thinking about getting out or adding to your position; or you are waiting for the PA to clear the next trade opportunity. And more to the point, without an understanding of the market structure that underlies PA, your perception of the market will always tend towards uncertainty, chaos and unpredictable. Learn the market, then learn to trade.
  • #19
  • Edited 9:09pm Dec 7, 2015 7:08pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting Neio
{quote} Isn't anyone who enters a trade predicting to some degree? I think the difference is the mindset after the trade is entered.
Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Quoting SaiLyfee
Plain and simple really, when anything is possible prediction becomes impossible.
In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity
― Sun Tzu, A Arte da Guerra

Pick battles big enough to matter, small enough to win.
Jonathan Kozol


The really good thing about speculation is that it is never imposed upon us.
  • #20
  • Dec 7, 2015 7:24pm Dec 7, 2015 7:24pm
the guy in the video makes one big error, he assumes that it is possible that one of the balls would be incorrectly placed and that would spoil everything,
this is a huge assumption to be made, like if it was obvious, of course it is possible if he moves it there, but can this happen at random with no interference?
Bulls are stupid Animals!especially when Im short!
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