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The One: Price Action and Reaction

  • #521
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:28am Dec 4, 2015 4:28am
Quoting eaglestar
Weekly Chart practice... Tell me if you notice something interesting. We may start to use Weekly charts as a guide... deciding on the flow of the thread. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
I think we are in long term decision positions right now.

I add one of my live trade on USD/CHF

Notice loosing downside energy when price touched Median Line. Long wick= rejection price, 2 Inside bars,after break up you could go long, Good R:R ratio, for now SL to BE, observing what price will do in blue lines.

Any opinions?
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  • #522
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:45am Dec 4, 2015 8:45am
Quoting bartlby37
{quote} Hi Winston - could you explain your thinking for selling where you did - On the chart you posted I see price making higher highs and higher lows - what am I not seeing that you are? Thanks B.
Hey Bartlby, "Counter trend" trades are ok with fork/AR trading if the setup is there. The white trend line that price has been flirting (see red down arrows) with is of the same frequency as the larger fork. Price is HIGH when it touches this TL so the mantra "sell high" applies. The stops can be pretty tight when trading this way.

Sure it is always safe and a good idea to trade with the trend. I remember hearing one of Tim's videos where he says you have a certain percentage increase in success if you trade with the trend.

I closed the trade about 30 minutes before NFP with +33. With NFP and the holidays in full gear price has been a bit choppy so even good setups have not played out that good.
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  • #523
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:48am Dec 4, 2015 8:48am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Hey Bartlby, "Counter trend" trades are ok with fork/AR trading if the setup is there. The white trend line that price has been flirting (see red down arrows) with is of the same frequency as the larger fork. Price is HIGH when it touches this TL so the mantra "sell high" applies. The stops can be pretty tight when trading this way. Sure it is always safe and a good idea to trade with the trend. I remember hearing one of Tim's videos where he says you have a certain percentage increase in success if you trade with the trend. I closed the...
Thanks for the explanation
  • #524
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:50am Dec 4, 2015 8:50am
​I want to post some observations this weekend about selecting the "right" fork and what to do when price exceeds the boundaries of the fork. What does this mean and what to do? Also when is a good time to consider another fork. And perhaps something about Where are the trades? Just observations. I don't claim to be an expert.
  • #525
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:52am Dec 4, 2015 8:52am
Quoting eaglestar
Gold example {image}
  • #526
  • Dec 4, 2015 2:17pm Dec 4, 2015 2:17pm
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
Quoting Hpt
{quote} EURUSD weekly what do you think ? yellow line {image}
EURUSD H4

look at the yellow marked area ! 0.382 retrace - fork - and channel median line ( all together)

channel startdate 08.05.2015


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see startpoint of yesterdays big candle. 2.0 from channel median line and low of ....
see where todays downmove till now stops...... 0.5 from channel median line

shows options for yesterdays entries /exits and also today


carpe diem
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #527
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:00pm Dec 4, 2015 4:00pm
Magenta fork still in play. The blue fork offers an interesting perspective though.
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  • #528
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:08pm Dec 4, 2015 4:08pm
A pair not followed here as we tend to concentrate on the majors. But if anyone wants to play this weekend why not let's look at this pair? Draw your fork or forks. Where were the possible trades? Any comments or analysis encouraged. Just for fun. Don't be intimated. Action/Reaction OK too. Go for it!
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  • #529
  • Edited 7:34am Dec 5, 2015 7:24am | Edited 7:34am
Quoting Winston Reed
A pair not followed here as we tend to concentrate on the majors. But if anyone wants to play this weekend why not let's look at this pair? Draw your fork or forks. Where were the possible trades? Any comments or analysis encouraged. Just for fun. Don't be intimated. Action/Reaction OK too. Go for it! {image}
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if only it were that easy in realtime
the 3rd wave is the crowd's wave
  • #530
  • Dec 5, 2015 9:39am Dec 5, 2015 9:39am
Nice Juri. Now that Juri has broken the ice I hope some others will give it a whirl. Try not to copy Juri's. Do your own analysis. There is more than one way.
  • #531
  • Dec 5, 2015 9:44am Dec 5, 2015 9:44am
Hello! New one here. My current market opinions w/h4. I am waiting for your feedback.
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  • #532
  • Dec 5, 2015 9:45am Dec 5, 2015 9:45am
Part II.
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  • #533
  • Dec 5, 2015 10:02am Dec 5, 2015 10:02am
this is how i see it
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  • #534
  • Dec 5, 2015 10:05am Dec 5, 2015 10:05am
[quote=vladutz112;8628094]this is how i see it {image}[/quote
I like how you've contained the trends within channels.
  • #535
  • Dec 5, 2015 10:12am Dec 5, 2015 10:12am
Quick 27 tick scalp on S&P on friday
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  • #536
  • Dec 5, 2015 10:13am Dec 5, 2015 10:13am
[quote=Winston Reed;8628097]
Quoting vladutz112
this is how i see it {image}[/quote I like how you've contained the trends within channels.
i thin the pitchfork it's the same thing
  • #537
  • Dec 5, 2015 10:19am Dec 5, 2015 10:19am
Quoting Winston Reed
A pair not followed here as we tend to concentrate on the majors. But if anyone wants to play this weekend why not let's look at this pair? Draw your fork or forks. Where were the possible trades? Any comments or analysis encouraged. Just for fun. Don't be intimated. Action/Reaction OK too. Go for it! {image}

Hello everyone my chart is more simple that yours but I am new in this and it showed up good opportunities too.
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  • #538
  • Dec 5, 2015 10:24am Dec 5, 2015 10:24am
Understand I only post here for discussion and observational purposes. I don't pretend to be a guru on the subject. I only post to offer my view and approach. For now I personally concentrate on forks and not so much AR. I draw traditional forks and for now avoid variants of forks like schiffs and modified schiffs or what have you. So far I have been doing well with basic forks.

Here is our chart of NZDCAD H4. I tend to start with this level of view. Not too zoomed in and not too zoomed out. I look for the major trend and the smaller trends inside but I don't get too small with trends.
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Looking from a macro viewpoint it is not difficult too see this large fork. It's not a bad fork. Keep in mind that the fork is only in play once point C has formed. It's also not too difficult to see the magenta diagonal support/resistance line. At first you may not see theses but once you start examining price from this viewpoint you will start to see them. I drew in a white slider.
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  • #539
  • Dec 5, 2015 10:45am Dec 5, 2015 10:45am
The larger fork shown in previous post is one that I would keep however I would also have smaller forks encompassing the 3 minor trends I see as shown. This would most likely be the view I would find most of my trades but I would also keep an eye on the larger fork.

The green fork is drawn after price falls out of the blue fork. I would have drawn the green fork with the low at the red arrow.

I would have drawn the red fork after price moves up out of the green fork when the retest fails.

The purple rectangle is an area where price tests the back side of the slider and the blue fork. The reddish rectangle is a retest of the median line on the backside and where the purple s/r line is. Both are areas of confluence.

I'm sure there are many other valuable observations.
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  • #540
  • Dec 5, 2015 11:42am Dec 5, 2015 11:42am
NZDCAD in 3D
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