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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #20,241
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:24am Dec 4, 2015 3:24am
Quoting infinitus
A Crushed Goldman FX Strategist Speaks: "We Badly Misread This Meeting"
I think the market overreacted and everything was planned. The tweet from FT, before the rate announcement is embarrassing for all the institution's credibility (if there was something left). If the most important new, like one rate cut from one CB, is known before, what are we going to thing about the rest of announcements (employments data, inflations data, etc)?. I have heard before (and had realized looking the market) that all the surveyllances are known in the market ( UOMichigan, all the surveyllances to Business Managers ( all the PMI'S),etc. Now I am confident about this rumour.

The point, is that the market was upset about rate cut and Draghi's speech. Playing with expectations. Althought there has been an increase in the time of QE and an increase of the amount (not as much as wanted) .Interesting point is that ECB is going to re-buy doubt with the benefits are getting with the Bonds they have.

Market has stopped where last NFP was. Happy to have keept one short from 0970. Close now.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-overkill.html
  • #20,242
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:45am Dec 4, 2015 3:45am
Quoting infinitus
A Crushed Goldman FX Strategist Speaks: "We Badly Misread This Meeting"
Or did they. Never trust the goldman. Would only trust that info with seeing their books suffering large loss.
  • #20,243
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:48am Dec 4, 2015 3:48am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I think the market overreacted and everything was planned. The tweet from FT, before the rate announcement is embarrassing for all the institution's credibility (if there was something left). If the most important new, like one rate cut from one CB, is known before, what are we going to thing about the rest of announcements (employments data, inflations data, etc)?. I have heard before (and had realized looking the market) that all the surveyllances are known in the market ( UOMichigan, all the surveyllances to Business Managers ( all the...
Just thinking loudly, if FED is planning to hike todays NFP could be painted good to give it "data" reason. Lets see. Just a thought that you cant trade on
  • #20,244
  • Dec 4, 2015 6:51am Dec 4, 2015 6:51am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Or did they. Never trust the goldman. Would only trust that info with seeing their books suffering large loss.
This is how Goldman treats their costumers.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...s-9613719.html
http://uk.businessinsider.com/snowba...-trade-2015-11

World is learning slow. Or there is other side, which means some guys in goverment pickpocketing some "donations" from GS to get the deal pass.
  • #20,245
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:25am Dec 4, 2015 7:25am
Let us bet - UP or DOWN..

D.P.

P.S. I bet on DOWN....
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,246
  • Dec 4, 2015 7:45am Dec 4, 2015 7:45am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Let us bet - UP or DOWN.. D.P. P.S. I bet on DOWN....

Did not I guess?
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,247
  • Edited 8:11am Dec 4, 2015 7:54am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Did not I guess?
Yup, news painted.

EDIT: 940 shorted.
  • #20,248
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:41am Dec 4, 2015 8:41am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yup, news painted. EDIT: 940 shorted.
Closed +25. Will try to grab 970 for larger pips.
  • #20,249
  • Dec 4, 2015 12:56pm Dec 4, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} as you can see from my counts, actually I am thinking, that we are at the end of a wave 3, which should ideally end in the vicinity of the 1.04x low Typically, the wave 4 retrace would target the wave 4 area of one lesser degree. (up to 1.0830) Since my count sees the wave 3 as an impulse with an extended subwave 5, the wave 4 could ideally target the subwave 2 area of this wave 3 (up to 1.1070) Personally I would feel good with targets in the 0830 to 0860 area (roughly). But let us...

Since the 0830 was overrun with ease, the 1070 might be in play

keep in mind - the 1070 is only the outer boundary of a zone

Personally I would feel uncomfortable with the price hitting 1070, because it would be around 60% retracement.

A wave 4 typically retraces 38-50% of the wave 3. 50% is the 1009

If it goes higher, something may be wrong most likely (the count)
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  • #20,250
  • Dec 4, 2015 1:30pm Dec 4, 2015 1:30pm
German Intelligence Warns: Saudi Arabia Has "Destabilizing Role" In The Middle East

Did we really need the German Intelligence for this to acknowledge this?
  • #20,251
  • Dec 4, 2015 4:32pm Dec 4, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} 21% bulls - can drop longer the sentiment average of the last 10 days is 10% bulls. The reduction is bearish sentiment so far has not translated into rising prices The retail trading crowd is at record long positions as it seems - so most likely further drop My favourite Gold count shows, that price now is at/near target levels and key support areas the easy trade is gone {image}

was this the end of wave 5 (down) for Gold, or is a last one down to come?

Since I believe, that Gold is forming an ending diagonal, so far I can only see one impulse in the wave 5 of 5. Since we would need an ABC-pattern for wave 5 in the ending diagonal, I do think that price will start to fall anew in the 1100-1150 area for a new low
  • #20,252
  • Dec 5, 2015 11:52am Dec 5, 2015 11:52am
Name what is common-sharing word for all countries in past 5-10 years that wars are filling in(the underlying that is):?
  • #20,253
  • Dec 5, 2015 2:18pm Dec 5, 2015 2:18pm
Quoting janpec1000
Name what is common-sharing word for all countries in past 5-10 years that wars are filling in(the underlying that is):?

Globalists?
  • #20,254
  • Dec 5, 2015 5:56pm Dec 5, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Globalists?
Pipeline.
  • #20,255
  • Dec 5, 2015 9:33pm Dec 5, 2015 9:33pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} was this the end of wave 5 (down) for Gold, or is a last one down to come? Since I believe, that Gold is forming an ending diagonal, so far I can only see one impulse in the wave 5 of 5. Since we would need an ABC-pattern for wave 5 in the ending diagonal, I do think that price will start to fall anew in the 1100-1150 area for a new low

I have 2 target area for up-move on gold (weekly & daily).

Agree ... we haven't see climax on weekly so probably it hasn't reach bottom and in the future we might see new low.

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  • #20,256
  • Dec 6, 2015 4:47am Dec 6, 2015 4:47am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} I have 2 target area for up-move on gold (weekly & daily). Agree ... we haven't see climax on weekly so probably it hasn't reach bottom and in the future we might see new low. {image}
Forget up moves on gold, if FED starts normalizing gold is gone. We shall know soon.

Nice article on ZH, just the thoughts i had.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...-all-fell-apar

Quote
Here is what really happened: the ECB tried to engineer a modest market selloff because the "market needed to be disappointed", coupled with a modest rise in the EUR to give the Fed some rate-hike breathing room. Instead, since everyone was positioned exactly the same - wrong - way, the dramatic overreaction in stocks and FX forced Draghi to not only panic but to publicly come out and admit that...

Both FED and ECB delivering at once would be hammering EUR, thus that happened.
  • #20,257
  • Dec 6, 2015 8:38am Dec 6, 2015 8:38am
Putin Accuses US Of ISIS Oil Coverup
  • #20,258
  • Dec 6, 2015 1:16pm Dec 6, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting infinitus
Putin Accuses US Of ISIS Oil Coverup
If you think logically why Russia hasnt released all that info about Turkey and US participating in ISIS funding months before (obviously their info agencies and army knew it already) is becouse it does nothing. All that info gets on def ears, no western media puts it across. In my country there was 0 articles about those revelations.
  • #20,259
  • Dec 6, 2015 1:56pm Dec 6, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} If you think logically why Russia hasnt released all that info about Turkey and US participating in ISIS funding months before (obviously their info agencies and army knew it already) is becouse it does nothing. All that info gets on def ears, no western media puts it across. In my country there was 0 articles about those revelations.
That information doesn't reach the ears of people here in the US. What we hear instead is raw propaganda: Obammer is doing all he can to stop isis and putin is the problem and assad is a bad man. This situation is very disturbing.
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #20,260
  • Dec 6, 2015 2:15pm Dec 6, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting mclon
{quote} That information doesn't reach the ears of people here in the US. What we hear instead is raw propaganda: Obammer is doing all he can to stop isis and putin is the problem and assad is a bad man. This situation is very disturbing.
Ye in our country it is bit move diversified to that. We do get real infos on what ground Assad stands and what he fights against, along with what Russia fights against, however the most important infos which are who/state is funding and supplying ISIS is not being shown, that is what makes large difference. Becouse if you show that it would kick Turkey/elite in ass, make really hard questions for NATO and start serious economical blockade. That is what would kill ISIS, and until that is shown, Syria is gameplay of time, and time is on side of Washington as Syrian army loses more men every day, while mercenary armies of globalists keep filling their lines every month. Thats why until serious stuff is being shown here, Russia is playing loosing game in Syria. Petrodollar and occupied states in past years can provide almost unlimited resources comparing to what defenders can.
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