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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,361
  • Dec 2, 2015 1:40pm Dec 2, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Man, you are doing a very very nice job there ... How do you maintain 30 positions in the same time?
Agreed, ZS has been deadly with the shotgun lately.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,362
  • Dec 2, 2015 6:45pm Dec 2, 2015 6:45pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Man, you are doing a very very nice job there ... How do you maintain 30 positions in the same time? (I think I read before about that 30 number, and forgot to ask back then).
It's a juggling act, frankly, and it's probably too many (even 20 -- which is what I've got it down to now). When it became apparent that there wasn't going to be much worthwhile happening from an IV perspective in index ETF's (slow meltup syndrome), I transitioned into earnings plays while I waited and virtually anything else that came up on the radar with a 70+ IVR. Quite a few earnings afterglo plays somehow got into the mix (like GPRO -- played it once at earnings; playing it again on volatility afterglo ... ), along with oddball junk like XOP/OIH/other individual oil/gas names that popped up (there were quite a few oil and gas plays at one point; looking like there's going to be more to come ... .)

As the number of decent earnings plays dwindled, I started looking at bridging the earnings season gap between mid-Dec and mid-Jan with some longer-term, beaten down stuff where covered calls made sense because of the rich premium being handed out on the call side (FCX, SUNE, SWN). Those may turn into longer term background plays (depending on how they go), which I'm fine with since I went small ... .

I've actually been trying to put on one trade a day, but try not to force anything if there isn't anything there, since it usually ends up not being worth the trouble. Many days, mighty slim pickings ... .

Probably due for a few days of taking my foot off the accelerator a bit ... . Nahhhh.

* * *

Did AVGO today -- Dec 11 115/150 short strangle for 1.60. Glad I went wider than 1 SD; the thing popped up 11+ bucks in AH (yeesh).

Tomorrow:

ULTA Dec 18 145/185 short strangle; looking for a 1.70 credit, but I'll piddle with it after open ... . Another one I went a bit wide on; it generally doesn't move much post-earnings, but I've already got three problem setups from this season; don't need another. Besides, how much can a makeup company move? (The drawback is that the underlying only offers monthlies, but Dec 18 is close enough to green light it).

AMBA Dec 11 50/71 short strangle; looking for a 1.60 credit. Just goes to show what IV will get ya. It's less than half the price of ULTA, but almost gets you as much premium due to IV as the ULTA play .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,363
  • Dec 2, 2015 9:33pm Dec 2, 2015 9:33pm
I like a bwb but if a bwb is too high I will take two small bwb to span the range of one larger bwb (note, bwb, not bbw) (also note, no chance in hell to fill these at super low mids....)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,364
  • Dec 2, 2015 10:57pm Dec 2, 2015 10:57pm
Quoting The Fool
I like a bwb but if a bwb is too high I will take two small bwb to span the range of one larger bwb (note, bwb, not bbw) (also note, no chance in hell to fill these at super low mids....) {image}
I will do that one (or, at the very least, price discovery on it) if I can every get my foot off the accelerator ... . Lol.

Two more plays for tomorrow:

XOP, Jan 15 30/41 short strangle, looking for 1.08. I'm thinking that post-OPEC meeting, things will calm down a bit, vol in these petro plays will collapse.

QUNR, Jan 15 35/55 short strangle, looking for a 2.23 fill. Earnings afterglow play. The underlying is probably total "Pinto" (as in Ford Pinto; i.e., a piece of crap if you were ever able to really look under the hood) (a Caymans Island holding company "workaround" ("wink wink, nudge nudge")). Nevertheless, can't pass on the premium, altho the strikes at Jan 15 at the 1 SD are hard to work, so went narrower and will probably bail at less than 50% max ... .

Okay, now I can downshift .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,365
  • Dec 2, 2015 11:37pm Dec 2, 2015 11:37pm
how'd you like that humongous USO strangle I showed above?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,366
  • Dec 2, 2015 11:53pm Dec 2, 2015 11:53pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I will do that one (or, at the very least, price discovery on it) if I can every get my foot off the accelerator ... . Lol. .. .
hey don't let your foldin money blow out the window....I will check on these long vol spreads day by day but I still think Draghi will probly light a fire under Santa's sled....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,367
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:21am Dec 3, 2015 11:21am
trying to fill USO Dec2 $13.5/14 calls vert for 7c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,368
  • Dec 3, 2015 11:47am Dec 3, 2015 11:47am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...sis-end-closer

em's will be struggling against the rising tide of USD strength in the coming year, but EWZ will still rally if the Dilma impeachment talk keeps up. If oil rallies in 2016, a bullish PBR bet could be money. I am trying to fill a PBR Apr/Jul $8 calls calendar for 10c......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,369
  • Dec 3, 2015 12:56pm Dec 3, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} hey all just a quick update on the trade above, I'm still in it looking for a quick dollar drop then I'm looking to close. watch out for some good movers in SBUX, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN. I'll keep you informed especially on SBUX
getting ready to take strangles on the above highlighted, i think there headed down just by there charts but it maybe fast like the apple drop we had 3 months ago with a strong bounce that's why a strangle plus you need lots of breathing room so I'm aiming 6-9 months out plus right now your getting a discount on buying prices from where they usually are, if apple breaks the 50 and closes beneath it then i be more comfortable
  • #11,370
  • Dec 3, 2015 1:53pm Dec 3, 2015 1:53pm
take advantage of big fiber jump to position for post Fed hike USD strength? (the FXE Jan/Jan4 $100 puts calendar has a 2c mid, trying to fill 20.)

...also, if you wanna pitch some pennies, watch the FXE Dec/Dec4 put verts, will be <5c down under $104-$105.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,371
  • Dec 3, 2015 2:03pm Dec 3, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
getting ready to take strangles on the above highlighted, i think there headed down just by there charts but it maybe fast like the apple drop we had 3 months ago
ok, mate, good luck & show your entries when you go please......I will likely stay off individual names for the most part
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,372
  • Edited 7:06pm Dec 3, 2015 2:25pm | Edited 7:06pm
filled Jan UVXY $45/50/55 calls fly @ 10c

trying to fill several FXE puts calendars, Jan/Jan4 .... $102, 101, 100...for 2-3 centavos
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,373
  • Dec 3, 2015 2:42pm Dec 3, 2015 2:42pm
Quoting The Fool
EWZ will still rally if the Dilma impeachment talk keeps up. If oil rallies in 2016, a bullish PBR bet could be money. I am trying to fill a PBR Apr/Jul $8 calls calendar for 10c......
filled that calendar for 11c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,374
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:26pm Dec 3, 2015 6:26pm
Quoting The Fool
how'd you like that humongous USO strangle I showed above?
Me likey ... . Lol.

AVGO (Dec 11 115/150 short strangle) went nuts post-earnings, but is still $6 short of my short call; glad I went wide; will peel off the short put tomorrow for .05 and look for 50% max on the call side.
AMBA Dec 11 50/71 short strangle filled for 1.53. The thing's off 3.88 to 54.00 after hours, but it's whipping around a bit ... .
ULTA Dec 18 145/185 short strangle filled for 1.58. Up $11 to 174 AH (another one where I'm glad I went wide).
QUNR Jan 15 35/55 short strangle filled for 2.05; up 2.26 today to 47.51. Hope I don't regret that ... .

* * *

Santa decided to visit me today early with a small lump of coal, assigning me 100 shares (short) of HD at 126. My level to get it back to scratch is like 123.51; otherwise short put sell a thon from here to eternity. (Still got a 122 short put on left over from the strangle ... ). Not an ideal situation, to say the least, since its a BP hog and HD has been on a tear to the upside. C'est la vie ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,375
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:55pm Dec 3, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting The Fool
take advantage of big fiber jump to position for post Fed hike USD strength? (the FXE Jan/Jan4 $100 puts calendar has a 2c mid, trying to fill 20.) ...also, if you wanna pitch some pennies, watch the FXE Dec/Dec4 put verts, will be <5c down under $104-$105.....
I tried to fill a variety pack of FXE bearish spreads, nothing nowhere nohow....they will be around....I'm not real excited about FXE generally but I think a fiber slide will resume and accelerate if the Yellen comes thru with a baby hike
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,376
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:12pm Dec 3, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting The Fool
filled Jan UVXY $45/50/55 calls fly @ 10c
these otm UVXY wide or kinda wide flies are earning a good rep on my books, I could see using them in general as a hedge for bullish index trades.......so long as you can get in them cheap.....UVXY popped over 10% today and my books responded with gains like twice that...of course I have other bullish vix spreads too, in VXX and VIX, but they were all pretty cheap defined risk and mostly spread out to Jan
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,377
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:14pm Dec 3, 2015 7:14pm
Quoting The Fool
trying to fill USO Dec2 $13.5/14 calls vert for 7c
trying to leg in to a two-sided setup, no fill, don't really care if I miss the whole trade, but may try again tomorrow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,378
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:37pm Dec 3, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting The Fool
these otm UVXY wide or kinda wide flies are earning a good rep on my books, I could see using them in general as a hedge for bullish index trades.......
the cheaper and wider the better, put em out 1-4 months and they will be there if/when we get a vol spike, look for entries as UVXY is bottoming....if you catch a spike anytime they will pay, don't have to hold for a perfect finish at expiry
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,379
  • Dec 4, 2015 3:36am Dec 4, 2015 3:36am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hi alexpi. I have an account with IB. I can't trade options any other way than that. Saxo bank have options as well, but their comms are very unatractive... I think IB is pretty much only US based broker that will have us from Balkans . But local brokers - no, there are none. We have a few that have "white label" for IB.
That's too bad, thanks for the reply!
  • #11,380
  • Dec 4, 2015 8:40am Dec 4, 2015 8:40am
OPEC offers MORE supply, watch for lower oil prices, ramifications in junk/high yield
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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