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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #20,201
  • Dec 2, 2015 3:25am Dec 2, 2015 3:25am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Look like that test was failed, for now USD should be prone to reversal or at least might ranging within 99.40 to 100+ area for a while (maybe until climax).
I am still looking for USD to bounce up. EU currently has 3 failed atempts on 630, looking for down. Holding short on 630.
  • #20,202
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:24am Dec 2, 2015 8:24am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Well, some point if not all are valid - but what is the solution? We do know from the COT reports etc., that the large traders, who are trend following mainly, do well over time, and do get better results than the Commercials or the Hedgers. I think best advise for most traders is, to try to get on the next cyclical trend early. How to know where one cycle ends and a new one starts would be a separate chapter. In my view traders lose, because they are doubling down their bets, when they see that their bet was into the right direction....

Absolutely agreed.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,203
  • Dec 2, 2015 10:40am Dec 2, 2015 10:40am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} I am still looking for USD to bounce up. EU currently has 3 failed atempts on 630, looking for down. Holding short on 630.
Closed +60. Will decide tomorrow if pre-placing ECB.
  • #20,204
  • Dec 2, 2015 11:07am Dec 2, 2015 11:07am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Closed +60. Will decide tomorrow if pre-placing ECB.



let the dust settle down
  • #20,205
  • Dec 2, 2015 11:30am Dec 2, 2015 11:30am
Breaking news.

Evidence. Part 1.
by Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation

Heavy vehicles are crossing Syrian-Turkish border with no restrictions near Reyhanli
Inserted Video


Media briefing “Russian Federation Armed Forces fighting against international terrorism. New data”
Inserted Video


to be continued

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,206
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:31pm Dec 2, 2015 5:31pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Objective information on the subject (by Russian Ministry of Defence) Media conference of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Viktor Bondarev concerning the attack on the Russian Su-24M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3nFgyGszvk (in Russian) The shorthand record in English is here https://www.facebook.com/permalink.p...92252324350852 Best D.P. P.S. Take a note Unreal: Erdogan Warns Russia Against Downing Turkish Jets in Syrian Airspace http://russia-insider.com/en/unreal-...rspace/ri11501...

THANKS for the shorthand record. It helped me to get a clear picture of what happened.

Pentagon rejects Russian evidence
https://www.rt.com/usa/324377-usa-russia-turkey-isis/

Sure those US Generholes are expert in false evidence
Attached Image
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #20,207
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:37pm Dec 2, 2015 5:37pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} THANKS for the shorthand record. It helped me to get a clear picture of what happened. Pentagon rejects Russian evidence https://www.rt.com/usa/324377-usa-russia-turkey-isis/ Sure those US Generholes are expert in false evidence {image}

What a farce - how can the US be trusted after all the meddling they did, after the arming and training of Daesh, how can someone trust them when they pretend to not know where all the Oil went to........


Turkey and US are in the very same boat at the end - birds of feather flock together.........
  • #20,208
  • Dec 2, 2015 5:44pm Dec 2, 2015 5:44pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} What a farce - how can the US be trusted after all the meddling they did, after the arming and training of Daesh, how can someone trust them when they pretend to not know where all the Oil went to........ Turkey and US are in the very same boat at the end - birds of feather flock together.........
I Agree, We are in an the absurd and total cynism. Paradoxically, I'm more optimistic than ever : it cracks inside Nato. Greek Defense Ministry said that the SU did not violate Turkish airspace and that F16 violated the syrian airspace. Nato is not very comfortable with this incident, they agreed to resume discussions with Russia. VP is playing smart and fine. There is hope !!!!
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #20,209
  • Dec 2, 2015 6:04pm Dec 2, 2015 6:04pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} The longer the trend lasts, the heavier their position gets. This doubling down or pyramiding or whatsoever was advocated by many "great" minds in their books about trading. In my view this is a big and fatal error. They all end up with holding the biggest position when the market finally turns. At that moment they give back all their profits easily. .
Interesting piece:

Attached Image


the average trader in FF is short since 9 weeks. Since 9 weeks the price of EU is declining. Even today we saw the lowest low, and now we are only a mere 60 pips off the ground.

Astonishing now the fact, that the short traders are under water with -7.9%, and 1621 losing vs. 106 winning trades

When the data presented by FF is sound, it would add weight to my arguments made in above cited posting
  • #20,210
  • Dec 2, 2015 8:17pm Dec 2, 2015 8:17pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Closed +60. Will decide tomorrow if pre-placing ECB.


Quoting infinitus
{quote} let the dust settle down
Absolutely
  • #20,211
  • Dec 3, 2015 4:50am Dec 3, 2015 4:50am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Interesting piece: {image} the average trader in FF is short since 9 weeks. Since 9 weeks the price of EU is declining. Even today we saw the lowest low, and now we are only a mere 60 pips off the ground. Astonishing now the fact, that the short traders are under water with -7.9%, and 1621 losing vs. 106 winning trades When the data presented by FF is sound, it would add weight to my arguments made in above cited posting
Yep larger side on short. With that said i am on same side, ECB will cut either today or in next few months very likely. The only sad part is that this cut is way more priced in that 2014 one was, so little juice for scalping afterwards. Will take some % risk with pre-shorting.
  • #20,212
  • Edited 5:50am Dec 3, 2015 5:34am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yep larger side on short. With that said i am on same side, ECB will cut either today or in next few months very likely. The only sad part is that this cut is way more priced in that 2014 one was, so little juice for scalping afterwards. Will take some % risk with pre-shorting.
The interesting thing is what Draghi is going to take, and his words.. he knows so well how to move the market... he is the master doing that. In my opinion I do not see the reason for more QE and more rate cut, but we are living in the world of the Central Bank Manipulation, so everything is possible. What do you think?

IMO, what can move the market up is a dissapointing QE extension as it's price it.

There are spanish elections before Christmas and they need good news..

It's stupid to think that with more QE (creating a buble-bonds) and more rate cut, there is going to appear a healthy demand. There is one moment when the monetary policy lose it's efectivity, is when the rates are close to zero.
The question is: if you haven't achieved your goals (inflation-employment) with the rate cuts you have done before. Why are we going to get now those goals with another rate cut?
  • #20,213
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:43am Dec 3, 2015 6:43am
630 in.
  • #20,214
  • Dec 3, 2015 6:49am Dec 3, 2015 6:49am
Quoting janpec1000
630 in.
BE SLed. Could have taken 70 damn.
  • #20,215
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:00am Dec 3, 2015 7:00am
Ok ... finally we got climax situation on USD today.
  • #20,216
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:04am Dec 3, 2015 7:04am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} The interesting thing is what Draghi is going to take, and his words.. he knows so well how to move the market... he is the master doing that. In my opinion I do not see the reason for more QE and more rate cut, but we are living in the world of the Central Bank Manipulation, so everything is possible. What do you think? IMO, what can move the market up is a dissapointing QE extension as it's price it. There are spanish elections before Christmas and they need good news.. It's stupid to think that with more QE (creating a buble-bonds) and...
The thing is that rate cuts and further QEs arent creating demand, they are cutting it. Its a lose lose policy, but under the Keynesian weaponry tool there is nothing else you can do. Only other option is to tighten the budget, which leads to complete full blown recesion which has never been implemented under Keynesian system becouse its politically impossible to do, unless you do it as experiment under sieged country like Greece. But as a union of whole its impossible, EU would break apart under internal political pressures, so only thing ECB can do is to soften lending and to keep status quo in economy, otherwise Rotschilds will get their hands full with solving political mess in EU.
  • #20,217
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:05am Dec 3, 2015 7:05am
Quoting andexQ
Ok ... finally we got climax situation on USD today.
Draghi still to go, lets see.
  • #20,218
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:09am Dec 3, 2015 7:09am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Draghi still to go, lets see.
USD already Topped and level 100 already locked ... imo
  • #20,219
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:24am Dec 3, 2015 7:24am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} BE SLed. Could have taken 70 damn.
First disappointing item, no rate cut

Edit: Now the information there is a rate cut ??????? A movement of 200 points....
  • #20,220
  • Dec 3, 2015 7:35am Dec 3, 2015 7:35am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} First disappointing item, no rate cut Edit: Now the information there is a rate cut ??????? A movement of 200 points....
Rates have been cut, which info do you mean? It was only depo cut in the air btw, not interest rate cut, which is what you probably mean. Altough i did expect cut in both.
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