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  • #11,341
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:56pm Dec 1, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting comoestas
{quote} you hace crystal ball i see. the daily chart is showinf sings of a short term pull back. Buying puts now is the way to go. Santa rally could come after a pullback/
quizás. Typically, I will have trades set up in each direction. I am trying to fill a Dec/Dec4 SPY calls $215 calendar for $0.06 (bullish)....if we get some more upside in SPY in the next days I will be looking to sell a Jan SPY calls vertical spread, $216/$219 perhaps (bearish). I may try short-term calls diagonals in SPY (bullish) - if they fill, I will look to do the same thing with puts (bearish). I am not averse to trading off a directional bias, but I try to balance it out with trades either way, because, no, I don't have a crystal ball....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,342
  • Dec 1, 2015 2:11pm Dec 1, 2015 2:11pm
Bienvenidos a nuestros amigos (y amigas) de la Republica Dominicana!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,343
  • Dec 1, 2015 2:15pm Dec 1, 2015 2:15pm
Quoting The Fool
Bienvenidos a nuestros amigos (y amigas) de la Republica Dominicana!
jajaja gracias tiguere
he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #11,344
  • Dec 1, 2015 2:21pm Dec 1, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting The Fool
I am trying to fill a Dec/Dec4 SPY calls $215 calendar for $0.06 ...
filled a block at 7c, looking for 6c or none on the rest - indices rally right into Dec FOMC week and I can make 4-5x on that 7c calendar.

December has been, historically, the best performing month for US stocks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,345
  • Dec 1, 2015 2:55pm Dec 1, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} filled a block at 7c, looking for 6c or none on the rest - indices rally right into Dec FOMC week and I can make 4-5x on that 7c calendar. December has been, historically, the best performing month for US stocks.
Yep, you could be right about that. Cheap calendars -> you gotta like them.
Anyways, as you said before... seems like rate hike is already calculated in, and nothing can really stop Santa now.
Except maybe Draghi do not deliver... what are the chances for that? Well. I wish I bought that dip on DAX today.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,346
  • Dec 1, 2015 3:27pm Dec 1, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep, you could be right about that. Cheap calendars -> you gotta like them. Anyways, as you said before... seems like rate hike is already calculated in, and nothing can really stop Santa now. Except maybe Draghi do not deliver...
If Draghi whiffs and especially if Granny Yellen whiffs - only then will Santa be denied. I was just at the gym for my lunch break, Santa was in there.

OMG.....all I can say is:

Do Not. Fuck. With Santa.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,347
  • Dec 1, 2015 3:47pm Dec 1, 2015 3:47pm
Quoting The Fool
those dinosaur industrials will come back when the world pulls together to fight off the impending alien invasion....thing is, you prolly get better long entries in the coming month or three....
Actually, my bet is that US Steel will recover when we return to making horseshoes ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,348
  • Dec 1, 2015 3:50pm Dec 1, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting The Fool
At any rate, the stars are lining up for a Santa Rally. Mario Draghi will light the fuse and BOOM! we should see new ath's in US indices in the 2-3 weeks remaining b4 the Dec FOMC.
Even if the Fed gets off the pot, Draghi's making sure there will be cheap money somewhere ... . Nevertheless, a WTF tick up in EURUSD today ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,349
  • Dec 1, 2015 4:10pm Dec 1, 2015 4:10pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yep, you could be right about that. Cheap calendars -> you gotta like them. Anyways, as you said before... seems like rate hike is already calculated in, and nothing can really stop Santa now. Except maybe Draghi do not deliver... what are the chances for that? Well. I wish I bought that dip on DAX today.
Kicking myself for bailing out of index ETF short put verts day or two ago at 50% max ("I don't trust this up move" nonsense; frankly, I still don't). Damned if you do; damned if you don't, I guess. Just didn't want Santa to give me a lump of coal this Christmas ... .

* * *

Out of FL short strangle at 50% max.
Did a couple of covered calls to keep myself entertained between earnings seasons: FCX w/Jan 15 9 calls for 7.76 (max profit $122 if called away at $9) and SWN w/Jan 15 9 calls for 7.92 (max profit of $108 if called away at $9). Only got four or five earnings plays left that I can see, and then I'm going to spend time drying powder out for the next season ... . Still gotta work off the three problem children earnings plays I inherited this one (IBM, HD, and YUM).

One of the decent earnings is in AVGO (IVR/IV 56/70). Because I've got the buying power available, I'm going short strangle, but wider than usual since I don't need another tested setup, frankly:

Dec 11 115/150 short strangle
POP%: 79%
Max Profit: $175/contract
BPE:~$1328/contract (pricey, I know, but the vast majority of these are inzee-outzees in a few days or less)
BE's: 113.25/151.75
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,350
  • Dec 1, 2015 4:49pm Dec 1, 2015 4:49pm
Would like to add short call verticals in an index ETF here somewhere; still can't squat for them ... . It's all a matter of timing, since what we need is a little bit more of a run up, a dip and an accompanying volatility pop to make them worthwhile and in the right area ... .

The alternative in this VIX 15 environment is to do the TastyTrade Market Measures suggestion, which is to go 100 days out with a SPY short strangle (the notion is that IV regularizes a bit farther out, even though, closer in time, it is low ... ).

As usual, the problem is buying power, along with horrible vol skew in the index ETF's: A fairly delta neutral SPY 178/225 short strangle, Mar 18 expiry, will get you a 1.87 credit/contract, but will tie up $2800 of buying power in the process, simply not worth it from an "occurrence" standpoint. That cash is better off repetitively redeployed during that time period, in my mind. Earnings plays are basically two months on; one month off; during that "month off," you're cleaning up messes from the "two months" on, so it seems to me like there's always something to do. Why tie up more than 10 times the max profit in buying power for an entire earnings season and then some?

Moreover, that setup looks awfully "forced" because of the vol skew; the short call strike is below the 1 SD line and the put strike, way below the 1 SD. Don't get me wrong; I've done that exact same 10 delta setup on repeated occasions; just can't see doing it 100 days out ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,351
  • Dec 1, 2015 5:12pm Dec 1, 2015 5:12pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Would like to add short call verticals in an index ETF here somewhere; still can't squat for them ... . It's all a matter of timing,... .
Good thoughts, ZS.. When the indices are melting up, you're right - it helps to get a little pullback here/there to pump just a a little premium. Even a % or 2 can make a big difference. This week I have been putting on bullish trades in index options, but nothing past Xmas week expiry. My long vol trades all look like shit, but most of them are punted out to Jan expiry, so I'm not sweating. Sitting on hands re: SPY calls credit spreads - I might be looking at short $220 when it's time to go.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,352
  • Dec 1, 2015 5:18pm Dec 1, 2015 5:18pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Even if the Fed gets off the pot, Draghi's making sure there will be cheap money somewhere ... . Nevertheless, a WTF tick up in EURUSD today ... .
I listen to the Bloomberg London radio show at the LO every night as I am drifting off....every night lately some bloke from the COL has been coming on to say the "USD to parity" stuff is bollocks. More than one I think has called $1.05 a bottom......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,353
  • Dec 1, 2015 10:06pm Dec 1, 2015 10:06pm
dec/dec4 $215 calls I will run right to FOMC day, looking to net >20c, will need >$213
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,354
  • Dec 2, 2015 12:00am Dec 2, 2015 12:00am
thinking of catching a runner after OPEC rocks the 168th, looked in the USO time/sales - somebody got they freak on with this bigass strangle - Dec2 $12/$14.5 - an 18c debit.....somebody did done 85,724.....they must think oyul is about to bust a move.....a $1.54MM risk if it sits still.....I kinda like the idea
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,355
  • Dec 2, 2015 12:22am Dec 2, 2015 12:22am
only thing I like more than cheap calendars is big wide cheap calendars
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,356
  • Dec 2, 2015 12:48am Dec 2, 2015 12:48am
don't forget the highyield if oil shows the way
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,357
  • Dec 2, 2015 12:59am Dec 2, 2015 12:59am
like the bit about FXTM

http://ir.cboe.com/press-releases/2015/30-11-2015.aspx
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,358
  • Dec 2, 2015 9:22am Dec 2, 2015 9:22am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... Out of FL short strangle at 50% max...
Man, you are doing a very very nice job there ...

How do you maintain 30 positions in the same time? (I think I read before about that 30 number, and forgot to ask back then).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,359
  • Dec 2, 2015 9:27am Dec 2, 2015 9:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Good thoughts, ZS.. When the indices are melting up, you're right - it helps to get a little pullback here/there to pump just a a little premium. Even a % or 2 can make a big difference. ...
Huge difference man.

/CL options are rich in premium, and not so much margin intense. Traded them a few times, looking for some play with Feb expiry (~45 DTE)... but can't find time and concentration for it.

Quoting The Fool
only thing I like more than cheap calendars is big wide cheap calendars {image}


Quoting The Fool
... I am trying to fill a Dec/Dec4 SPY calls $215 calendar for $0.06 (bullish)...
I am with you on this one... filled some today for 6c and some yesterday for 7c... 6,5c in average. Fook it.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,360
  • Dec 2, 2015 9:46am Dec 2, 2015 9:46am
/NQ is leader again. Touching the ATH...
So, will it drag along the others or not, we shall see soon enough.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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