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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,321
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:37pm Nov 30, 2015 5:37pm
Out of WYNN, AET short strangles at 50% max, along with some index ETF short put vert action (only got one left on; I'll reload if we get a dip somewhere in here).

In addition to the SUNE covered call, I got filled on a RRC Jan 15 22.5/35 short strangle for 1.28 and a MXIM Jan 15 34/44 short strangle for 1.00 even.

Those VIX products: I'm still waiting for my ideal short put vert setup -- a VIX 11/13 short put vert for 1.50 credit. That setup (or something close to it) doesn't happen all that often (it hasn't happened since August, when VIX dipped to sub-11), but if it does, I'm setup with GTC orders for each of three monthlies out ... . I've played UVXY and VXX "in between," but those trades end up driving me absolutely nuts for some reason ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,322
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:47pm Nov 30, 2015 5:47pm
Quoting The Fool
I spent 1 centavo on a GLD calls Dec/Dec4 diag $109/110....needs about a $60-70 upmove in gold for the next 3 weeks. I will put on the put side for a DD if I can get something down at $95 for near $0.
I've got some small short put vert action on in GLD, but didn't expect it to tank this much; was looking to fill in the call side on a bounce of some kind back toward the 109 or 110 GLD area, but XAUUSD is just getting completely hammered. That being said, the pattern is for gold to pop on market downturns; at this point, I just need the bitch to stay above my 101 short strike through Dec 18 expiration (lookin' iffy right now).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,323
  • Nov 30, 2015 6:07pm Nov 30, 2015 6:07pm
natgas, dude.....I dare not touch it....but one of these days, BOOM! to the Moon....UNG $8.6x today
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,324
  • Nov 30, 2015 6:11pm Nov 30, 2015 6:11pm
Not seeing squat for tomorrow for premium selling ... . But I'm still on for AVGO (Wednesday after market close), AMBA (Thursday after market close), and ULTA (Thursday after market close).

MDT announces earnings Wednesday before market open, but vol has barely moved (IVR/IV 36/28); Dec 11 72/79.5 short strangle worth .54 doesn't do it for me ... . Worth keeping an eye on though; could be playable after earnings ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,325
  • Nov 30, 2015 6:16pm Nov 30, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting The Fool
natgas, dude.....I dare not touch it....but one of these days, BOOM! to the Moon....UNG $8.6x today
I pulled the trigger a bit too early on that one this season ... . I now need something north of 11, but will probably settle for less unless it just uber pops in the next 45 and I get greedy ... .

I consider it a good day when it tacks on a penny to the upside ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,326
  • Nov 30, 2015 6:34pm Nov 30, 2015 6:34pm
S -- another beaten down equity:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S Daily.jpg Size: 404 KB


The only way to work these totally brutalized, sub $10 stocks via options is by covered call and then only if you can get sufficient premium to make it worthwhile so that you're not in the darn thing forever. For example, I'd have to go out to May 2016 expiry for the 4 short call to squeeze $48 bucks out of it, even longer if I was going to shoot for the 4.5 short call ... . Makes the SUNE covered call I did look like a gem (due in no small part to its 200+ IV).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,327
  • Edited 7:15pm Nov 30, 2015 6:54pm | Edited 7:15pm
Unlike S, though, X might be a worthwhile covered call (like SUNE, its got high IV -- 120+):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: X Daily.jpg Size: 136 KB


Carl Icahn's supposedly on board this crap train (and on FCX (a long copper play)), which isn't necessarily saying much. I could see taking a very short ride on it, but I doubt we'll see a turnaround in steel between now and a Jan expiry (which is fine; just lather, rinse, repeat the short calls ... ).

100 Shares X at 8.03
Jan 15 short 9 call
7.38 debit
Max Profit $162 (if called away at $9)

Edit: One of the reasons I'm considering a covered call here is that I'm in a Dec 18 11/11 short straddle. I'm going to close that out at a $74/contract loss here (I don't expect price to retrace all that much in the next two weeks), and then work to mitigate the loss of that setup with the covered call setup ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,328
  • Nov 30, 2015 7:03pm Nov 30, 2015 7:03pm
those dinosaur industrials will come back when the world pulls together to fight off the impending alien invasion....thing is, you prolly get better long entries in the coming month or three....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,329
  • Nov 30, 2015 7:08pm Nov 30, 2015 7:08pm
early Asia futures say Santa is coming.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,330
  • Edited 11:58pm Nov 30, 2015 10:28pm | Edited 11:58pm
when IV elevated the otm strikes get juiced and you can look for cheap bflys. P/L won't look as shown when iv slides but if you can get in for cheap no matter......obviously you not gonna fill a bfly for credit, but anything under a dime is super cheap for the one shown
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-30_2022x2.png Size: 80 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,331
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:12am Dec 1, 2015 1:12am
if oil will rally in 2016, high yield will come back to 2014 levels, how bout a 7-month calendar for 9c?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-30_2310hyg2.png Size: 70 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,332
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:16am Dec 1, 2015 11:16am
hi guys i have signal to sell dia.
what is the best delta to buy for a march 16 puts?
he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #11,333
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:31am Dec 1, 2015 11:31am
Quoting The Fool
if oil will rally in 2016, high yield will come back to 2014 levels, how bout a 7-month calendar for 9c? {image}
Options wise, looks like people buying calls...
I am looking at Feb /CL (because it expires in Jan) which is about $42.70 now.
So how about equidistant puts and calls... Feb /CL 35 put is $0.38 and Feb /CL call is $0.63. Clear vol skew to the upside, options with aprox 45 DTE (Jan14 expiry).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,334
  • Dec 1, 2015 11:39am Dec 1, 2015 11:39am
Quoting comoestas
hi guys i have signal to sell dia. what is the best delta to buy for a march 16 puts?
I rarely think about buying calls & puts outside of a spread of some kind.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,335
  • Dec 1, 2015 12:32pm Dec 1, 2015 12:32pm
trying to fill the Jun/Jan'17 HYG calls $90 calendar for 10c - see above
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,336
  • Dec 1, 2015 12:47pm Dec 1, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I rarely think about buying calls & puts outside of a spread of some kind.
what your rules are telling you about DIA?
he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #11,337
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:02pm Dec 1, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting The Fool
SUNE not going anywhere fast.....I am watching it....sumbitch might go BK if oil legs down & drags ass thru 2016
SUNE been one of the heaviest traded names lately....up 15% today, still under $4, about my limit for shares/options combinations
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,338
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:07pm Dec 1, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting comoestas
what your rules are telling you about DIA?
I wish I had some rules like that. But my take on the US indices is that they will rally in 2016, up til the US Presidential election, at least. After a lackluster year in 2015 they will prolly do 10% in 2016 - so DJIA to 20,000, S&P to 2,300, NASDAQ to the moon. Buena suerte, amigo.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,339
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:26pm Dec 1, 2015 1:26pm
At any rate, the stars are lining up for a Santa Rally. Mario Draghi will light the fuse and BOOM! we should see new ath's in US indices in the 2-3 weeks remaining b4 the Dec FOMC.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,340
  • Dec 1, 2015 1:42pm Dec 1, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting The Fool
At any rate, the stars are lining up for a Santa Rally. Mario Draghi will light the fuse and BOOM! we should see new ath's in US indices in the 2-3 weeks remaining b4 the Dec FOMC.
you hace crystal ball i see.
the daily chart is showinf sings of a short term pull back.
Buying puts now is the way to go.
Santa rally could come after a pullback/
he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
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