Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 327 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #6,521
  • Nov 23, 2015 3:50am Nov 23, 2015 3:50am
Quoting panoramia
Just a reminder for majors currency pairs longer term bias: AUDUSD short EURUSD short GBPUSD short NZDUSD short USDCAD long USDJPY long Intraday could be the opposite, if looking at the bigger picture with bigger timeframes supply and demand zones holding, those are the highest odds directions to be taken. Have a great week. Cheers, Alfoso

Thanks Alfonso just that information alone is very useful .. from that we can all check on the charts to confirm and learn ourselves and use the info.

much appreciated
  • #6,522
  • Nov 24, 2015 4:06am Nov 24, 2015 4:06am
Hi i saw from the picture provided that to draw SD lvls you need to have drop leg down, a base and a rally up with 2 candles closing at least 80% upwards for a demand zone to be drawn. Not all charts show this on some charts the candles don't close at 80% for example but price moves upwards in this case can that be considered a valid demand zone? Do the candles have to fit the picture to a T before they can be considered valid?
  • #6,523
  • Nov 24, 2015 6:06am Nov 24, 2015 6:06am
Quoting forex_fairy
Hi i saw from the picture provided that to draw SD lvls you need to have drop leg down, a base and a rally up with 2 candles closing at least 80% upwards for a demand zone to be drawn. Not all charts show this on some charts the candles don't close at 80% for example but price moves upwards in this case can that be considered a valid demand zone? Do the candles have to fit the picture to a T before they can be considered valid?
That's the recommendation my friend, 2 candles closing at 80% or more for a departure to be considered higher quality. Not like that? It will still be demand, smaller odds but if trend trading is ok.

Demand is demand by 2 rules, as described in post #1.

I don't know what you mean with "fitting the picture to a T", could you be more explicit and upload a screenshot?
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,524
  • Nov 24, 2015 7:51am Nov 24, 2015 7:51am
HI Alphonso
I am watching one of your best webinars on "What supply and demand timeframe combinations to choose and how to trade them"

this part about the Trendline being not valid when price is in HTF zone.

is it the same if price is inside the HTF zone? in this case maybe within the HTF SZ ?rather than just touch and rejected by HTF SZ.
Attached Image
  • #6,525
  • Edited Nov 25, 2015 1:27am Nov 24, 2015 12:31pm | Edited Nov 25, 2015 1:27am
Quoting lionfx
HI Alphonso I am watching one of your best webinars on "What supply and demand timeframe combinations to choose and how to trade them" this part about the Trendline being not valid when price is in HTF zone. is it the same if price is inside the HTF zone? in this case maybe within the HTF SZ ?rather than just touch and rejected by HTF SZ. {image}
The logic is this, fully tested of course. A bigger timeframe usually wins over a lower timeframe. David beated Goliath one, that doesn't mean he will always beat him. Makes sense?
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,526
  • Nov 24, 2015 1:43pm Nov 24, 2015 1:43pm
Hahaha, Alfonso, I like it when you use that David ang Goliath story. Yeah he beat him only once.
  • #6,527
  • Edited 4:22am Nov 25, 2015 4:09am | Edited 4:22am
Supply and demand analysis on Indian share/stock Hexaware.

Uptrend on 6 months, 3 months, and monthly up. Monthly demand zones nested within 3 months demand zone

Longs already happened. Long bias.

If anybody trade indian stocks, it would be great to see what they think about weekly and daily charts on Hexaware.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 199 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,528
  • Nov 25, 2015 6:14am Nov 25, 2015 6:14am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} That's the recommendation my friend, 2 candles closing at 80% or more for a departure to be considered higher quality. Not like that? It will still be demand, smaller odds but if trend trading is ok. Demand is demand by 2 rules, as described in post #1. I don't know what you mean with "fitting the picture to a T", could you be more explicit and upload a screenshot? Cheers, Alfonso
Hi i mean the picture that you provided on post #1 the flow chart SD. I have screenshot the monthly of the USDCAD and circled a few candles whereby price rose upwards but there was no closure of 2 candles at 80% of their main body yet price still rose up so i wonder if they can be considered demand zones. Thanks.

Attached Image


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad D and S.jpg Size: 223 KB
  • #6,529
  • Nov 25, 2015 7:17am Nov 25, 2015 7:17am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} The logic is this, fully tested of course. A bigger timeframe usually wins over a lower timeframe. David beated Goliath one, that doesn't mean he will always beat him. Makes sense? Cheers, Alfonso
yes I know bigger timeframe wins lower ones.
so even when price is inside the HTF, we can still short inside, right ?
  • #6,530
  • Nov 25, 2015 11:09am Nov 25, 2015 11:09am
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} Hi i mean the picture that you provided on post #1 the flow chart SD. I have screenshot the monthly of the USDCAD and circled a few candles whereby price rose upwards but there was no closure of 2 candles at 80% of their main body yet price still rose up so i wonder if they can be considered demand zones. Thanks. {image} {image}
As I believe I mentioned in previous posts, that's the highest odds, but it's not always like that. Those are the best ones, even more if we are with the bigger picture's trend. I do validate levels that do not do that, like I said those are the highest odds with the trend, then there are medium odds and good odds, they are not bad but not as good. Not having closure at 80% does not invalidate a potential supply or demand imbalance.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,531
  • Edited 11:34am Nov 25, 2015 11:09am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting lionfx
{quote} yes I know bigger timeframe wins lower ones. so even when price is inside the HTF, we can still short inside, right ?
If we are in an uptrend, short into a HTF supply? Not allowed, confirmation required.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,532
  • Nov 30, 2015 7:38am Nov 30, 2015 7:38am
Hi alfonso,
Here is my view about hexaware daily chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-30 19_04_25-HEXAWARE[NSE - 10734] D.jpg Size: 183 KB
  • #6,533
  • Nov 30, 2015 3:36pm Nov 30, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting maknil
Hi alfonso, Here is my view about hexaware daily chart. {image}
What is your view on Hexaware indian stock my friend? I just see you uploaded a daily chart, no top down analysis, no trendlines drawn, you don't write a single word on what you want to do, when or why, you just uploaded a chart. That is not a view on instrument, just a screenshot with no details on what the trend is and what you want to do with it

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,534
  • Dec 1, 2015 3:26am Dec 1, 2015 3:26am
Dear Alfonso,

I've recently stumbled over your material here as I was getting into SD trading a bit deeper. Thanks for putting things together so nicely,
really awesome collection you put together here. Will surely follow your stuff here and post stuff if I have questions and/or trading ideas.
Regards,
Tom
  • #6,535
  • Dec 1, 2015 4:21am Dec 1, 2015 4:21am
Quoting Tr8erTom
Dear Alfonso, I've recently stumbled over your material here as I was getting into SD trading a bit deeper. Thanks for putting things together so nicely, really awesome collection you put together here. Will surely follow your stuff here and post stuff if I have questions and/or trading ideas. Regards, Tom
Thanks for your kind words Tom, your comments will be more than welcome. Enjoy your day!
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,536
  • Dec 1, 2015 4:22am Dec 1, 2015 4:22am
USD/JPY is trying to push higher, Daily 20 EMA being tested, in control and being respected. Potential longs lower but price didn't pullback. New lower timeframes demand imbalances can be created.

If weekly supply gains control, a bigger pullback will be needed for longs, buying against bigger timeframe supply zones is low odds.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 92 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,537
  • Dec 1, 2015 4:22am Dec 1, 2015 4:22am
EUR/AUD is in a clear Weekly and Daily downtrend, price breaking lower trying to reach Monthly demand where some more longs are expected to happen since
Monthly is still in a downtrend.

New Daily supply zones being created on the way down, H4 supply and lower timeframes available for those trading intraday. Short bias till price gets close to Monthly demand zone

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.png Size: 99 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,538
  • Dec 1, 2015 4:23am Dec 1, 2015 4:23am
Weekly supply zone in control on GBP/NZD. D1 supply zone nested within it gained control and allowed shorts to happen from there. New Daily and lower timefarmes supply zones being created, with lots of room to keep on dropping to previous weekly and Monthly demand demand zones. Weekly out of alignment

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd.png Size: 90 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #6,539
  • Dec 1, 2015 5:27am Dec 1, 2015 5:27am
Quick question Alfonso,
What are the dots I see in some of the candles? Is that an indicator showing the basing candle(s)?
If so that is quite helpful...

Greets, Tom
  • #6,540
  • Dec 1, 2015 7:30am Dec 1, 2015 7:30am
Quoting Tr8erTom
Quick question Alfonso, What are the dots I see in some of the candles? Is that an indicator showing the basing candle(s)? If so that is quite helpful... Greets, Tom
Those are explained on some YouTube videos and the video that explains how to use the indicator Tom.

Those are 50% basing candles, that is, the candle body (distance from open to close) is 50% or lower than the whole candle range (high to low).
Hope that helps
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
2 traders viewing now