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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,301
  • Nov 29, 2015 10:13pm Nov 29, 2015 10:13pm
I got in this VIX calls fly for 15c debit last week - I paid for a 50c broken wing to get the debit down - could be a 10-bagger or more with any kind of VIX elevation in late Dec-early Jan. I could have a hell of a New Years party if these tickets pay out....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-29_2006VIX.png Size: 76 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,302
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:07am Nov 30, 2015 5:07am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} A complicated affair ... . Most of the time, it's just too expensive to hedge completely such that you won't take a hit on at least some adverse movement. ... . Yeah, there is the whole "forward contract" thing; as usual, you pay for that "insurance," too ... .

Hey ZS thanks for your time.
As I said, only a few banks in my country does FX hedging for their clients... All I heard about that, is that it is "quite expencive" and nothing more ussefull than that. (By the way - wtf that guy did while EUR was going down from 1,40 to 1,05... and NOW he wants to hedge? Better now than never, but still...)

Here is something from CME about FX hedging:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/f...ithOptions.pdf

How many people does hedge at all - probably just small group of professionals.


-------------------------------------

Off topic
I have that impression that option trading in general (equity and futures options) is still something that only small number of people do, no matter of a country they live in. I guess that less than 10 people in my country trade equity and futures options, since I don't know or have heard of any of "the others"... In USA? You tell me... On every 100 stock traders, how many option traders you have? One? Five? People usually just buy single puts or calls as lotto ticket. Or maybe I am wrong? A reason more to get really good in it then :nerd:.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,303
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:18am Nov 30, 2015 5:18am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ...decided to wait on SPY call credit spreads, will see if the Santa rally picks up some steam next week.
Hi TF.

Europe is on fire for the last couple of trading days... DAX is up, BUT still about 1,000 points from its ATH.
On the other hand, US indices - SPX, NDX... are pretty close to their ATHs.

There could be stereo attack on EUR... Draghi could drag it down with more stimullus, and Yellen could strenghten the USD. Both of this will probably happen.
I guesstimate that DAX goes up on more stimuluss and weak EUR, Oil and all commodity sector nominated in USD... on stronger USD - not bullish to say the least.

What about US indices? Rotation to Europe? What about volatility on US markets...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,304
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:55am Nov 30, 2015 5:55am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Hey ZS thanks for your time. As I said, only a few banks in my country does FX hedging for their clients... All I heard about that, is that it is "quite expencive" and nothing more ussefull than that. (By the way - wtf that guy did while EUR was going down from 1,40 to 1,05... and NOW he wants to hedge? Better now than never, but still...) Here is something from CME about FX hedging: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/f...ithOptions.pdf How many people does hedge at all - probably just small group of professionals....
Hey there neighbour

I believe the main reason option trading is so "rare" is that it's difficult to get into. CFDs and Forex are easy to get into. Binary options for currencies and commodities as well. But when you get to stock options it's difficult to find a broker, especially for us on the Balkans.

I've been searching the net but can't find any broker in Bulgaria that offers stock option trading on the international markets.

Please let me know if you know of any brokers in Belgrade or the other surrounding countries. I don't like the idea of going to some international USA/UK-based broker (IB or ToS for example), puts me off when I know I can't have any physical contact with their staff. Thanks!
  • #11,305
  • Edited 2:30pm Nov 30, 2015 5:58am | Edited 2:30pm
Hi,
reading the next charts, what options would you guy buy?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-30-TOS_CHARTS.png Size: 38 KB
he, alone, was to blame for his losses in the zero-sum game
  • #11,306
  • Nov 30, 2015 8:54am Nov 30, 2015 8:54am
Quoting StrayDog
In USA? You tell me... On every 100 stock traders, how many option traders you have? One? Five? People usually just buy single puts or calls as lotto ticket. Or maybe I am wrong? A reason more to get really good in it then :nerd:.
in the USA, trading goes from high to low - stocks, futures, forex, options. There are very few people daytrading options. Usually, somebody who gets very experienced trading stocks or futures will start to do some options trading....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,307
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:07am Nov 30, 2015 9:07am
Quoting comoestas
Hi, reading the next charts, what options would you guy buy?
hi comoestas. I rarely trade individual names anymore, usually just trading indices and vix products. I did notice that HPQ drop when it happened & thought about trying to catch a rebound, but it looks like that better entry is gone. Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,308
  • Nov 30, 2015 9:08am Nov 30, 2015 9:08am
Quoting alexpi
... Please let me know if you know of any brokers in Belgrade or the other surrounding countries. I don't like the idea of going to some international USA/UK-based broker (IB or ToS for example), puts me off when I know I can't have any physical contact with their staff. Thanks!
Hi alexpi. I have an account with IB. I can't trade options any other way than that. Saxo bank have options as well, but their comms are very unatractive... I think IB is pretty much only US based broker that will have us from Balkans . But local brokers - no, there are none. We have a few that have "white label" for IB.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,309
  • Edited 4:11pm Nov 30, 2015 9:22am | Edited 4:11pm
Quoting StrayDog
What about US indices? Rotation to Europe? What about volatility on US markets...
I think there are strong expectations for The Fed to finally start hiking at the Dec FOMC (12/16).....after all this time the hike should be baked in & I'd expect more volatility if they DON'T hike. OPEC meeting at the end of this week could offer some wild card possibilities - they could underpin the oil price movement or fail to do that, either way could be some volatile moves for oil after this week. For anytime up til the Dec FOMC, I'd expect we are in BTFD mode for US equities, but also I think big level jumps above the summer highs will be tough to get.....until next year......from the long vol trades I have been putting on one can see I think there is a good possibility for a vol jump after the Dec FOMC. Might not happen, though......obviously.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,310
  • Nov 30, 2015 11:08am Nov 30, 2015 11:08am
Quoting The Fool
....from the long vol trades I have been putting on one can see I think there is a good possibility for a vol jump after the Dec FOMC. Might not happen, though......obviously.....

I am thinking of some option combo on UVXY, probably with Dec expiry. Like selling Dec 24 put to finance 29/32 call spread or something simillar... (a Super Bull or something ). Maybe sell a put spread to finance a call spread...

Like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uvxy-combo.PNG Size: 511 KB


OR this, for even money and defined risk:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uvxy-combo2.PNG Size: 551 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,311
  • Nov 30, 2015 11:19am Nov 30, 2015 11:19am
Quoting Cecil Gee
hi all been a while, making a lot less trades but focusing on better quality of trades which means longer waits for the set ups, currently I'm looking to take a 6 week strangle on DAL delta airline price is just under $50 so a single strike either side should cost just under $2 and looking for a $4 move in this stock in the next few weeks
hey all just a quick update on the trade above, I'm still in it looking for a quick dollar drop then I'm looking to close. watch out for some good movers in SBUX, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN. I'll keep you informed especially on SBUX
  • #11,312
  • Nov 30, 2015 11:23am Nov 30, 2015 11:23am
Hi CG! Good luck man!


Re UVXY, another idea:

Sell ONE Dec 22/24 put spreads for more than 80c credit, and buy 3 Dec 29/30 call spreads, about 25c each... How about that...
(sell wider, buy narrow spreads)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #11,313
  • Nov 30, 2015 11:54am Nov 30, 2015 11:54am
Quoting StrayDog
Hi CG! Good luck man! Re UVXY, another idea: Sell ONE Dec 22/24 put spreads for more than 80c credit, and buy 3 Dec 29/30 call spreads, about 25c each... How about that... (sell wider, buy narrow spreads)
If we Santa rally your Dec $24 short leg could go underwater. We might get good vol before and after the Dec FOMC, but that is just 2 days before the Dec expiry. It just looks a little tight. I am in Jan $22/20 short calls, just need a vol jump to bail on those with 40c or better anytime....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,314
  • Nov 30, 2015 12:44pm Nov 30, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
hey all just a quick update on the trade above, I'm still in it looking for a quick dollar drop then I'm looking to close. watch out for some good movers in SBUX, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN. I'll keep you informed especially on SBUX
hey Cecil hope you have been well. You think SBUX will tank? Cast an eye at the charts and see what any name did on the late Aug Yuan panic - SBUX crashed $15 that week, then bounced back. What a name did before/after the 8/24 dip is a good indicator of what it might do again if there be a broad selloff.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,315
  • Nov 30, 2015 1:13pm Nov 30, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hey Cecil hope you have been well. You think SBUX will tank? Cast an eye at the charts and see what any name did on the late Aug Yuan panic - SBUX crashed $15 that week, then bounced back. What a name did before/after the 8/24 dip is a good indicator of what it might do again if there be a broad selloff.
I honestly do not know which way it may go but both daily and weekly do look top heavy so there is a good chance, ill be making a move shortly on this once everything lines up like its short, medium implied volatility, this one may end up a 3 month strangle
  • #11,316
  • Nov 30, 2015 4:04pm Nov 30, 2015 4:04pm
Quoting StrayDog
! Re UVXY, another idea:
UVXY a crazy mofo that I have not figured out at all. I am wary of doing anything on it but relatively narrow spreads - $2 at the most, and even that is a lot if you are loaded up. ^VIX up like 1.00 today & UVXY down fitty cent. I don't know what to make of that divergence. My continuing approach will be to try to get in wide time spreads for cheap & hope to catch a spike. Bflys are a good bet if you can get filled, look at the 5's and 10's - like the $45/55/65 I am in. Otherwise, try to time it and hang your meat out there on a diagonal short, try to get the long calls to run alone into a 2-3 week or more stretch where there are some scheduled vol-inducing event(s).....like the Dec FOMC. I honestly don't know what I would do if I caught a break and nailed one of those and saw it go like $25 itm. With my luck, I would try to get out & never get filled. That's the dream, though.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,317
  • Nov 30, 2015 4:36pm Nov 30, 2015 4:36pm
I spent 1 centavo on a GLD calls Dec/Dec4 diag $109/110....needs about a $60-70 upmove in gold for the next 3 weeks. I will put on the put side for a DD if I can get something down at $95 for near $0.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,318
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:06pm Nov 30, 2015 5:06pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ....sorry I missed the bottom on SUNE, saw it, just wasn't hungry....still time though...you could still sell the same Apr calls vert for 43c, the same calendar debits ~$0.70..........todays options: 138k calls to 34k puts {image}
I had to bite on this in some fashion ... . Went with a covered call: 100 shares at 3.36/short Jan 15 4 call for a 2.78 debit. Naturally it has way more potential upside that $4, but I figure to get in and out of the thing in short order ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,319
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:20pm Nov 30, 2015 5:20pm
Quoting comoestas
Hi, reading the next charts, what options would you guy buy? {image}
From a premium seller's perspective, there isn't enough juice in the play to make it worthwhile (for example, a 45 DTE short strangle).

To me, given its price in relation to the 52 week low, my thinking is covered call, but I'd want it maybe a $1.00 or so cheaper -- $11.50-ish, although you've got that oddball split on 11/2 mucking up the works, so it's hard to tell what I'd buy it for. I'd probably want to see a greater period of price action post-split to figure out what level it's going to settle at before doing anything, frankly. Just my two cents ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,320
  • Nov 30, 2015 5:26pm Nov 30, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I had to bite on this in some fashion ... . Went with a covered call: 100 shares at 3.36/short Jan 15 4 call for a 2.78 debit. Naturally it has way more potential upside that $4, but I figure to get in and out of the thing in short order ... .
SUNE not going anywhere fast.....I am watching it....sumbitch might go BK if oil legs down & drags ass thru 2016
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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