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EUR/USD: IntraDay Scalping and Short Term Swing Trading Only

  • #2,381
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:05am Nov 24, 2015 3:05am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} it looks like swissy is back to pre float levels and that it might even go higher.
it was just the Germany IFO Business, missed to enter sell at 61 thinking it my overreact to 1.07, well still it might go these levels as Thursday the dollar has a day off
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #2,382
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:19am Nov 24, 2015 3:19am
1.07 fundamentally and technically now on the H4 is going to be difficult...until something bigger happens, like no rate hikes.

LHs and LLs that's all there is right now and has been...

50p up from today's low, I think they're going to drop it 50 and 50 more for a 100p range, DL to be 1.0570 or lower....1.0550 is a break/support point.

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  • #2,383
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:22am Nov 24, 2015 3:22am
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  • #2,384
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:28am Nov 24, 2015 3:28am
Quoting KzX
{image}
running into massive resistance at the bottom of the shoulders area (your lower band)

modified HS at top and inverted at bottom, trend wins
  • #2,385
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:36am Nov 24, 2015 3:36am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} running into massive resistance at the bottom of the shoulders area (your lower band) modified HS at top and inverted at bottom, trend wins
UJ is gonna lose ground till the downed airplane situation is clarified over Syria. So it could give a boost to EU to gain something back.
  • #2,386
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:38am Nov 24, 2015 3:38am
Quoting Pipologist
1.07 fundamentally and technically now on the H4 is going to be difficult...until something bigger happens, like no rate hikes. LHs and LLs that's all there is right now and has been... 50p up from today's low, I think they're going to drop it 50 and 50 more for a 100p range, DL to be 1.0570 or lower....1.0550 is a break/support point. {image} {image}
you are quiet right, but not without a correction which usually is nearly 20 % of the target, so if you expect a 100 pips down it wont happen without 20 pip correction. Actually i think next week will test this weekly low at 1.0595, and this week tests are last weeks opening at 0738 or weekly high at 0762, my analysis about that are also provoked from the recent news about possibly not raising hikes and delaying them for the next years meetings. Ever since most of the regional FED members and economist said rising hikes my take Dollar to the recesion the meetings last week said its uncertain that rising hikes my occur on December. Overall Good EU data are showing signs of possibly covering such a correction. Of course i still think the dollar is getting more strengh but its all speculated. It doesnt change the fact we're getting some profit out of it

entered the following positions
EUR/USD buy @ 1.0635
GBP/USD Buy @ 1.5065
AUD/USD Sell @ 0.7230
USD/JPY buy @ 122.44
hard days for the Dollar are comming this and next week
never go for max profit, but for minimum lose !
  • #2,387
  • Nov 24, 2015 4:00pm Nov 24, 2015 4:00pm
Quoting IcoHristov
{quote} you are quiet right, but not without a correction which usually is nearly 20 % of the target, so if you expect a 100 pips down it wont happen without 20 pip correction. Actually i think next week will test this weekly low at 1.0595, and this week tests are last weeks opening at 0738 or weekly high at 0762, my analysis about that are also provoked from the recent news about possibly not raising hikes and delaying them for the next years meetings. Ever since most of the regional FED members and economist said rising hikes my take Dollar to...
Can't agree more, I do believe that we are getting a pullback before testing the recent lows @ 1.05s. Euro economy is showing some sign of recovery with Germany beating all expectations. A fair scenario would be mid 1.07s pull back before heading south. However I'm not a fan of going against trends especially with how strong the USD is looking. I'll wait for the setup to form and go short from where I think is best, while mean ill just enjoy scalping the USDJPY
  • #2,388
  • Nov 24, 2015 7:18pm Nov 24, 2015 7:18pm
Quoting Pipologist
1.07 fundamentally and technically now on the H4 is going to be difficult...until something bigger happens, like no rate hikes. LHs and LLs that's all there is right now and has been... 50p up from today's low, I think they're going to drop it 50 and 50 more for a 100p range, DL to be 1.0570 or lower....1.0550 is a break/support point. {image} {image}
I can agree with this however do you see Thursday with US mostly down as room for gain on EUR side to the possible .07+ upside range?

I'm short @ .066
  • #2,389
  • Edited 10:47pm Nov 24, 2015 8:20pm | Edited 10:47pm
Easy to say at this point in the day with EURUSD trending up, I'm expecting the move up to go to at least 1.0686. At which point before 1.07 I wouldn't be surprised to see selling pressure. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see 1.0686 before 1.0606. This is based on a hedging swing trading EA I have that took a position at 1.0626 two days ago (late in the evening, before Asia session opened). So far in 2 months, in 10 sets of hedges, it's hasn't been wrong once we've gotten this far into a move, the opposing hedges have already been dropped before we crossed 50. The target time to reach 86 is still unknown but appears that we will hit it today, since it's only 12p away from here now
  • #2,390
  • Nov 25, 2015 12:20am Nov 25, 2015 12:20am
Long scalp at just below 60 a few minutes ago before the slight breakout up.
Target is 85/86 the area I spoke of previously.
SL is currently 53, but will mostly be up/out sooner or BE+ as we get a few more pips up from here.
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  • #2,391
  • Nov 25, 2015 1:33am Nov 25, 2015 1:33am
Quoting Pipologist
Long scalp at just below 60 a few minutes ago before the slight breakout up. Target is 85/86 the area I spoke of previously. SL is currently 53, but will mostly be up/out sooner or BE+ as we get a few more pips up from here. {image}
Here we go, 1.0685, however, i do believe we could see the 1.07s given the drop in the Euro stocks and good eco news, it's where the sellers are going to come back.
  • #2,392
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:10am Nov 25, 2015 3:10am
Quoting Pipologist
Long scalp at just below 60 a few minutes ago before the slight breakout up. Target is 85/86 the area I spoke of previously. SL is currently 53, but will mostly be up/out sooner or BE+ as we get a few more pips up from here. {image}
I think technically this up move is complete. Check your 30m charts after the move pin and eve star.

Fundamentally in addition to possible rate hike still in play, news about Russia breathing hot air against Turkey a NATO country is starting to concern others. Politically Turkey downing it's jet is much more serious it's already affected the Lira and the Turkish stock market almost immediately, where are those funds going to go? Into Rubles? Not. Euros? Not now. Gold? Yeah, but not as liquid and stable as Dollars. 1.0550 this week. Last Friday was my deadline. Looks like it might hit it by tomorrow or early next week if not sooner.
  • #2,393
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:25am Nov 25, 2015 3:25am
Quoting Pipologist
Scalps and moves to the down side will move quicker at this time for fundamental reasons. Be careful.
I regret that I was asleep and did not catch this move down. Don't want to scalp in mid move here, but I also don't think there will be a regular bounce...if there is one, it will be up and down quick...a little sideways and another drop towards 550.

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  • #2,394
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:40am Nov 25, 2015 3:40am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} I regret that I was asleep and did not catch this move down. Don't want to scalp in mid move here, but I also don't think there will be a regular bounce...if there is one, it will be up and down quick...a little sideways and another drop towards 550. {image}
Cant really confirm the continuation of the downtrend until i see a clear break of the 1.0620 major support, a rejection today will lead to another pullup, so if it is to be broken, it has to be within these two days, otherwise i think we will get a stuck til next week. Huge day for NY today, i will make sure to prepare my coffee and be ready to catch the move at 10AM US time.
  • #2,395
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:42am Nov 25, 2015 3:42am
Quoting IcoHristov
{quote} you are quiet right, but not without a correction which usually is nearly 20 % of the target, so if you expect a 100 pips down it wont happen without 20 pip correction.
I was counting in the retracement already priced in when we hit 657 three days ago, before it dropped to 593 2 hours later.

However, from yesterday I was looking at high of 763 five days ago and low of 593 three days ago. Mid retrace area was 678, which we hit twice (almost twice) on yesterday and then once today and then one last time up to 89 and now down. 1.0690 was defended, 1.07 is probably not going to happen now for awhile.
  • #2,396
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:43am Nov 25, 2015 3:43am
Good price, Long scalp 608
  • #2,397
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:45am Nov 25, 2015 3:45am
Quoting Pytta
{quote} Cant really confirm the continuation of the downtrend until i see a clear break of the 1.0620 major support, a rejection today will lead to another pullup, so if it is to be broken, it has to be within these two days, otherwise i think we will get a stuck til next week. Huge day for NY today, i will make sure to prepare my coffee and be ready to catch the move at 10AM US time.
Don't know what platform you use, but 620 has been broken, it's clearly been broken. That is not incidental profit taking that moved 80p down in less than 2 hours. That's major positioning being taken. Any move back up will be met with sideways movement. No one wants to be short dollars going into a holiday weekend. Especially with all the unstable BS going on right now.

Another reason for the sell off of euros along with dollar covering...we are going into low liquidity in the NY session compared to a normal session, a lot of traders will go home early for unofficially a 4 day weekend. So they're doing their biz now so they can start relaxing. However, they will be glued to the screen because of all the crap going on. Any more BS politically and dollars/gold will be bought.
  • #2,398
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:50am Nov 25, 2015 3:50am
what TP for long ??

thanks :-)
  • #2,399
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:50am Nov 25, 2015 3:50am
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} Don't know what platform you use, but 620 has been broken, it's clearly been broken. That is not incidental profit taking that moved 80p down in less than 2 hours. That's major positioning being taken. Any move back up will be met with sideways movement. No one wants to be short dollars going into a holiday weekend. Especially with all the unstable BS going on right now.
I consider a support being broken when the price reaches next support or at least consolidates below the aforementioned point. 10-15 pips down is, to me, not a support break. As you can see now, price is back to 1.062x, which means we haven't cleared the support as of yet. A fail to effectively break is will take us up the low 1.07s before selling interest resides.
  • #2,400
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:54am Nov 25, 2015 3:54am
Quoting KzX
Good price, Long scalp 608
hope you got out quick on that. this is not a normal range type day, or normal news type day.
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