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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #2,001
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:19am Nov 24, 2015 3:19am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} I can tell you one very important thing about oil trading: HAVE A GOOD SIZED TRADING ACCOUT OR ELSE DONT TRADE because WTI and BCO are both really turbulent.
You missed out the part about low leverage.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,002
  • Nov 24, 2015 4:18am Nov 24, 2015 4:18am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} You missed out the part about low leverage.....
very true. You can raise this with experience and good risk management
  • #2,003
  • Nov 24, 2015 6:49am Nov 24, 2015 6:49am
Time is the best teacher.
  • #2,004
  • Nov 24, 2015 10:03am Nov 24, 2015 10:03am
Oil over the last day or two has been up and down like a Yo-Yo
  • #2,005
  • Nov 24, 2015 12:51pm Nov 24, 2015 12:51pm
the oil has shot up 2 dollars in the last 2 days, is the a sign for change of direction> ?
  • #2,006
  • Nov 24, 2015 5:29pm Nov 24, 2015 5:29pm
Quoting Apples88
the oil has shot up 2 dollars in the last 2 days, is the a sign for change of direction> ?
If oil moves $10-$20 a day that's a yoyo
$2 is nothing.
If you can't stand it's movement of $2 then forget about trading this pair.
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,007
  • Nov 24, 2015 6:01pm Nov 24, 2015 6:01pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} If oil moves $10-$20 a day that's a yoyo $2 is nothing. If you can't stand it's movement of $2 then forget about trading this pair.
Going from -3% to over +3% is a good 6-7% change which is a lot for oil if you are trading on Forex. Also a lot for those exporting millions of barrels a day of oil.
  • #2,008
  • Nov 24, 2015 6:35pm Nov 24, 2015 6:35pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Going from -3% to over +3% is a good 6-7% change which is a lot for oil if you are trading on Forex. Also a lot for those exporting millions of barrels a day of oil.
so when i buy oil and have it shipped to my port, you think I'm getting this price now?
also when doyou think that oil will be shipped to me and how long will that contract be at the price?
btw all im saying to you is if you CAN'T STAND THE $2 MOVEMENT YOU BETTER NOT TRADE OIL....

GO learn to trade something less expensive with higher leverage and micro account....because oil will kill you and specially if the ny guys ever let go of the price whenever a storm or bombing in middle east
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #2,009
  • Nov 25, 2015 2:29am Nov 25, 2015 2:29am
If anybody knows differently, please correct me.

I believe that what we see on our charts is the spot price for oil.
If you buy oil for delivery the price is whatever you strike at the time, i.e. the contract price.

Nobody on this forum is actually buying or selling oil, they are merely betting on price movements.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,010
  • Nov 25, 2015 2:44am Nov 25, 2015 2:44am
Aren't we a bit off topic here? we speculate we don't invest

anyway so Monday was bull because the Saudi's said they would "consider" an intervention (unlikely in my opinion)
Yesterday was Bull because the Turks shot down a Russian fighter
Today will hopefully be back to reality and bear due to the continuing massive over supply 2.6m added on the API, I would not be surprised if the EIA is a positive number as the cut in rigs reduced supply by only 200,000 barrels
  • #2,011
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:16am Nov 25, 2015 3:16am
...or bull due to Gazprom shutting off supply to the Ukraine, until they pay some more.

From Sky News:
"
Russian company Gazprom has stopped gas supplies to Ukraine until Kiev pays for more energy.
Gazprom said that by 7am GMT on Wednesday Ukraine had received all the gas it had paid for and would not be sent more because the country had yet to pay in advance for future supplies.
Chief executive Alexei Miller warned that the stoppage posed a serious risk to the secure transit of gas to Europe via Ukraine, as well as to Ukrainian consumers.
Some 15% of the gas used in Europe travels through Ukraine.
"
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,012
  • Nov 25, 2015 3:47am Nov 25, 2015 3:47am
Likely in retaliation for Crimea being cut off from Ukraine's power grid
  • #2,013
  • Nov 25, 2015 11:52am Nov 25, 2015 11:52am
Quoting Exodus
...or bull due to Gazprom shutting off supply to the Ukraine, until they pay some more. From Sky News: " Russian company Gazprom has stopped gas supplies to Ukraine until Kiev pays for more energy. Gazprom said that by 7am GMT on Wednesday Ukraine had received all the gas it had paid for and would not be sent more because the country had yet to pay in advance for future supplies. Chief executive Alexei Miller warned that the stoppage posed a serious risk to the secure transit of gas to Europe via Ukraine, as well as to Ukrainian consumers. Some...
out of Russias interpretations it sounds like Russia cut their gas to Ukraine...., no, Ukraine just don't want to buy it, because gas from Europe is cheaper, + total use of gas in Ukraine come to abt 20% less then used to be becose of energy savings technologies. As I read from gov briefing their goal is to become independent of Russia's gas in 10yrs...
Ukraine is accepting only gas that to be transferred to EU and there's no complains from EU abt it. It just in Russia's interest to build some tensions... they're loosing money here...
  • #2,014
  • Edited 2:18pm Nov 25, 2015 1:51pm | Edited 2:18pm
OPEC next meets Dec 4th. Unless Turkey and/or Russia do something before then oil will continue to hang around low $40's till Saudi's speak.

From a newsletter I get:

Of course, Venezuela is not happy with OPEC. The South American nation is suffering worse than any of its OPEC members. Venezuela’s oil minister Eulogio Del Pino warned ahead of the meeting that the failure of OPEC to take action to stabilize the market (i.e. cut the oil production quota) could cause oil prices to drop as low as the mid-$20s per barrel. Venezuela has proposed that OPEC target an “equilibrium price” of $88 per barrel. “We cannot allow that the market continue controlling the price,” Del Pino said. “The principles of OPEC were to act on the price of the crude oil, and we need to go back to the principles of OPEC.”


BTW can we all agree oil is a commodity, not a pair - like socks or shoes.
  • #2,015
  • Nov 26, 2015 6:02am Nov 26, 2015 6:02am
Dec. 4th will be an interesting day.

Iran has a number of tankers loaded and ready to go, from what I read somewhere.
I don't see the Saudis, particularly, being keen to reduce output just to have it refilled by Iranian supply.

OTOH, Venezuela and others are desperately seeking a price increase. Maybe if they cut output by 5mmbl/day it would do the trick......
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #2,016
  • Nov 26, 2015 6:06am Nov 26, 2015 6:06am
if nothing comes super suprisely then my math 44.15-44.30 then down.
  • #2,017
  • Nov 26, 2015 2:47pm Nov 26, 2015 2:47pm
LONG TERM

Hi everyone
I drawn on this weekly chart my actual idea on OIL.
Interested in buying at a lower value but not far from these levels. I suspect the job in 39/40 is not yet completed.
It's possible market will be visiting again 34-33-32. Even lower!
Target in 51/52 area.

I'm looking with a 4/5 months point of view from now on.
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,018
  • Nov 26, 2015 4:10pm Nov 26, 2015 4:10pm
Oil is consolidating, but it remains weak and it may try to go lower. There are no strong fundamental reasons yet for it to go much higher. At least the 44.00 level on the WTI may act as resistance.
  • #2,019
  • Nov 28, 2015 1:45pm Nov 28, 2015 1:45pm
Quoting trademark
Oil is consolidating, but it remains weak and it may try to go lower. There are no strong fundamental reasons yet for it to go much higher. At least the 44.00 level on the WTI may act as resistance.
agreed!
What I meant with my post is: it's going down, but my buy interest is increasing!
at this point... the lower the better!!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #2,020
  • Dec 2, 2015 2:58pm Dec 2, 2015 2:58pm
the market is underestimating the horizontal and fracking technology uncovering massive volume.
World oil publications shows 2300 rigs available to drill but under 600 active right now in the u.s.

Drilling isn't slowi down enough to push prices higher.
Short selling EOG, buying few and March 35$ crude Nymex puts, DTO, short selling other frackers.

Houston on and other oil dependent cities are getting slammed harder. Lot more jobs to be slashed
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