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Let's Trade Options

  • #11,261
  • Nov 20, 2015 10:59pm Nov 20, 2015 10:59pm
the mofo will lull you to sleep plowing new bottom land but then boom one week-long deepfreeze polar vortex 8-foot snowdrift nightmare hits New Yawk and it'll pop 25%+ in 3 td's....a Jan/Apr diag could get you three months of opportunity
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,262
  • Nov 20, 2015 11:12pm Nov 20, 2015 11:12pm
I tried to fill a Dec2/Dec4 SPY calls diag, $214.5/$216 near the close for a nickel, no dice...upside will still be there next week I bet....it was not the best trading week I had this quarter
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,263
  • Nov 21, 2015 12:01am Nov 21, 2015 12:01am
Monday, day of destiny.........????..........

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post8603620
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,264
  • Nov 22, 2015 12:09am Nov 22, 2015 12:09am
SUNE, lotto ticket trade idea of the day, crazyass superbull, sell the Apr $2.5/$1.5 vert puts for 50c and buy the Apr/Jan'17 $10 calls calendar for 32c....Apr a long time to tie up $1.00 margin, but 50c back on it is fine....SUNE maybe heading for BK, but that is gonna take some time & there will likely be some bottompicker action on it IF (big IF) the wider market rallies into Q1 2016 and oil rallies too.....if you don't get much out of the $10 calendar, let the Jan'17 calls run and hope for a miracle rebound....I could see SUNE working out some debt management deals and surviving, maybe making it back to $15 if oil rallies hard in 2016
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-21_2156SUNE.png Size: 77 KB
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,265
  • Nov 22, 2015 12:30am Nov 22, 2015 12:30am
dd

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...kely-sees-pric
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2944406...tcy-at-a-price
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,266
  • Nov 22, 2015 12:35am Nov 22, 2015 12:35am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...ost-production

sure, Dec hike a catalyst for USD selloff, long gold, etc.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,267
  • Nov 22, 2015 9:03pm Nov 22, 2015 9:03pm
Quoting Goldflake
Could anyone here recommend me a honest Options/Binary broker for EU? I wanna try options..never tried yet...I'm looking for a broker who handles monthly touch or may be weekly.. Not interested in UP/DOWN closing..just interested in one touch...
You probably won't like my recommendation, but it's to stay away from binary options brokers. The vast majority are fly-by-night organizations set up in jurisdictions where it's virtually impossible to recover your money if there's any kind of problem (Cyprus, Belize, Belarus ... ). The single US entity engaged in binary options is Nadex, and their setup leaves something to be desired, but that's probably because they're subject to US regulation and simply cannot do what others can due to regulation.

If you really feel a desire to trade forex, I'd limit yourself to spot ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,268
  • Nov 22, 2015 9:08pm Nov 22, 2015 9:08pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have thought about playing with binaries, might if I ever run out of other shit to do......these guys look like they might be OK.... http://www.cantorexchange.com/?code=hsx
Huh, that's one I've not heard of, and I did a lot of research ... . But I'd try to look behind their NY front and see where they're actually based; the address could be just for their "registered agent," which will do you no good if they're actually a company based in the Lesser Seychelles ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,269
  • Nov 22, 2015 9:15pm Nov 22, 2015 9:15pm
Quoting The Fool
the mofo will lull you to sleep plowing new bottom land but then boom one week-long deepfreeze polar vortex 8-foot snowdrift nightmare hits New Yawk and it'll pop 25%+ in 3 td's....a Jan/Apr diag could get you three months of opportunity {image}
This year -- diamond hard to call a bottom in this f'er. Rig count/shale gas extracts goin' down, but natgas still goin' down. Like you said, tho, could pop in a heartbeat over a several day period if there is a godzilla storm that causes everyone in half the US to crank up their thermostats ... . I'll start to get discouraged when I've only got 7 DTE for my Jan 11 long calls (left over from a spread). I'll consider it a gift from the market gods if I can get out for scratch with UNG now at sub 9 ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,270
  • Nov 22, 2015 9:29pm Nov 22, 2015 9:29pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...ost-production sure, Dec hike a catalyst for USD selloff, long gold, etc.....
I've already got a long GLD position on at this dip for the described scenario; I think the copper play has to be boarding Icahn's car that he's attached to the FCX train ... . Naturally, there are other precious metals plays that focus on gold, gold miners, and/or silver, but since I've already got the GLD position on (and SLV follows GLD's trajectory to a T), I may consider an FCX play ... . With a large amount of cash sitting on the sidelines, I may dive into a covered call as a longer term play.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,271
  • Nov 22, 2015 9:51pm Nov 22, 2015 9:51pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I've already got a long GLD position on at this dip for the described scenario; I think the copper play has to be boarding Icahn's car that he's attached to the FCX train ... . Naturally, there are other precious metals plays that focus on gold, gold miners, and/or silver, but since I've already got the GLD position on (and SLV follows GLD's trajectory to a T), I may consider an FCX play ... . With a large amount of cash sitting on the sidelines, I may dive into a covered call as a longer term play.
The alternative is a broader-based long commodities play in DBC. DBC is made up of commodities futures, as opposed to positions in equities, so it'll have holdings in gold, silver, diesel, gasoline, soybeans, corn, etc. ... . http://etfdb.com/etf/DBC/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,272
  • Nov 22, 2015 10:19pm Nov 22, 2015 10:19pm
I tried this trade last year......no luck.....maybe if I live long enough, natgas will catch a bid.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,273
  • Nov 22, 2015 10:35pm Nov 22, 2015 10:35pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Huh, that's one I've not heard of, and I did a lot of research ....
http://www.cantor.com/public/aboutus

Cantor Fitzgerald been around a long time & as best I know they are behind the Cantor exchange options thing. I looked in there and can't say I have any interest atall.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,274
  • Nov 23, 2015 12:09am Nov 23, 2015 12:09am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The alternative is a broader-based long commodities play in DBC. DBC is made up of commodities futures, as opposed to positions in equities, so it'll have holdings in gold, silver, diesel, gasoline, soybeans, corn, etc. ... . http://etfdb.com/etf/DBC/
that dog is near comatose, a $1 range in a week is big
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-22_2dbc.png Size: 125 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,275
  • Nov 23, 2015 6:47pm Nov 23, 2015 6:47pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} that dog is near comatose, a $1 range in a week is big {image}
Yeah, nothing to get excited about ... . Rather just play FCX as a long copper play and be done with it if I'm going to do anything on top of my long GLD play as it relates to a rate hike and its effect on commodities ... . Haven't had good luck with those fundamentals plays anyhoo (beyond FXE short, which wasn't really worth the effort).

* * *

I returned to the Dough grids and scrounged some more for plays that'll bridge the gap between this earnings season and the next:

SCTY, Dec 31 19/39 short strangle, filled for 1.17 credit.
FL, Jan 15 55/75 short strangle, filled for a 1.05 credit.
GPRO, Jan 15 15/26 short strangle, filled for a 1.03 credit.

These are all post-earnings volatility "afterglow" plays ... . I went for a 1.00+ fill on WSM, too, but vol collapsed quickly with that one today, and I didn't get a fill.

Tomorrow, I'll look to put on a play in DE -- a Dec 11 68/81.5 short strangle for 1.07 credit; it's probably the only worthwhile earnings play this shortened holiday week, which is just fine with me ... . I could do with a little powder drying going into FOMC ...

* * *.

Out of a BABA short strangle I put on for 1.38 post earnings for 50% max ... . Think I actually played that bitch twice; once before earnings and then once after when volatility hung in .. .

HD is turning into a pain in the ass (nature of the beast). Price broke above 132 today; I rolled out the 126 call to Dec 31st (same strike) (for a .60 credit) and matched her up with a Dec 31 122 short put (for a .62 credit), creating a Dec 31 122/126 short strangle which I will take off at scratch for the entire rigamarole if I can get it. That brings the number of this earnings season's PITA's (pains-in-the-asses) to 3: IBM, YUM, and HD, which ain't that bad, I guess ... . Have to screw around with that rolled YUM setup tomorrow, since it's nearing expiration ... ugh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #11,276
  • Nov 23, 2015 8:56pm Nov 23, 2015 8:56pm
Give some away.....

http://enablingthefuture.org/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,277
  • Nov 23, 2015 10:11pm Nov 23, 2015 10:11pm
boondoggles R us
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-11-23_nbg.png Size: 72 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,278
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:03pm Nov 24, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting The Fool
boondoggles R us
I did fill some of these NBG 1-yr calendars, Jan'16/Jan'17 @ $0.50 calls for 3 centavos. Nobody believes NBG shares are going anywhere, apparently, but holy smokes, 3c lotto ticket is a good bet for dog that might pop back to >$1.00 - 3c could turn 20x back.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,279
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:07pm Nov 24, 2015 3:07pm
Quoting The Fool
SUNE, lotto ticket trade idea of the day, crazyass superbull, sell the Apr $2.5/$1.5 vert puts for 50c and buy the Apr/Jan'17 $10 calls calendar for 32c....
SUNE has rallied a near double this week, but I did not buy this ticket
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #11,280
  • Nov 24, 2015 3:31pm Nov 24, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting The Fool
I did fill some of these NBG 1-yr calendars, Jan'16/Jan'17 @ $0.50 calls for 3 centavos. Nobody believes NBG shares are going anywhere, apparently, but holy smokes, 3c lotto ticket is a good bet for dog that might pop back to >$1.00 - 3c could turn 20x back.....
3c was a .....a .....deal....?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/the-4...&doc=103191525
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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