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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #20,101
  • Nov 20, 2015 12:03pm Nov 20, 2015 12:03pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...meeting-monday

This should be taken with serious note. When last time this happened, Lehman was set on fire day after it.
  • #20,102
  • Nov 20, 2015 12:05pm Nov 20, 2015 12:05pm
Quoting janpec1000
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-1...meeting-monday This should be taken with serious note. When last time this happened, Lehman was set on fire day after it.
In the calendar it's a tentative, so no time scheduled.
  • #20,103
  • Nov 20, 2015 12:36pm Nov 20, 2015 12:36pm
Just liked the picture

D.P.
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  • #20,104
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:06pm Nov 20, 2015 4:06pm
EU now again only 11% bulls

USDCHF only 10% bulls

Crude 9% bulls

NatGas 11%

Copper 9%
  • #20,105
  • Nov 20, 2015 4:06pm Nov 20, 2015 4:06pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Just liked the picture D.P. {image}

  • #20,106
  • Nov 21, 2015 1:08am Nov 21, 2015 1:08am
Quoting infinitus
EU now again only 11% bulls USDCHF only 10% bulls Crude 9% bulls NatGas 11% Copper 9%
I supposse the % of bulls is a typo in USDCHF. Looking your dialogue with Sisse, I would comment that a slow and minimal rate hike in USD is the expected. I think, what is expected is a minimum rate hike in December, and maybe nothing else in a lot of months. But, for me now the second actor has appeared in the film. The Euro.
New expectations, because this was suddenly a new factor. More fuel to the trend. Now it's the great player.
Realize, that a slighty dovish FOMC developed a bullish day on thursday and a simple Dragui's speech has capped that vawe.
For me the expectations are now in the board of euro ( more rate cuts and more QE) . A minimum rate hike in Dec, is the expected, and where is it going,too.
More QE,( and the quantity)that's the new fuel for the bearish trend.
  • #20,107
  • Nov 21, 2015 2:46am Nov 21, 2015 2:46am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I supposse the % of bulls is a typo in USDCHF. Looking your dialogue with Sisse, I would comment that a slow and minimal rate hike in USD is the expected. I think, what is expected is a minimum rate hike in December, and maybe nothing else in a lot of months. But, for me now the second actor has appeared in the film. The Euro. New expectations, because this was suddenly a new factor. More fuel to the trend. Now it's the great player. Realize, that a slighty dovish FOMC developed a bullish day on thursday and a simple Dragui's speech has...
Hi Lavanda,No, the % of USDCHF bulls is OK. I clarified this with the source of my information. In the past I thought the value was the bulls generally in CHF, but I was told now that the currencies are always the values for the USD pairs.I cleared that last week especially for USDCHFAnd the data makes sense. We have seen this bearishness in USDCHF now for weeks, but the price keeps on climbing.The crowd is wrong most of the time. They will keep and build their short positions until price drops. Then they are deep underwater and suffer pain. They will be quick in bailingTheir positions and switch to long positions. It is an ever repeating game.In Gold it was perfect textbook for decades
  • #20,108
  • Nov 21, 2015 3:07am Nov 21, 2015 3:07am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} I supposse the % of bulls is a typo in USDCHF. Looking your dialogue with Sisse, I would comment that a slow and minimal rate hike in USD is the expected. I think, what is expected is a minimum rate hike in December, and maybe nothing else in a lot of months. But, for me now the second actor has appeared in the film. The Euro. New expectations, because this was suddenly a new factor. More fuel to the trend. Now it's the great player. Realize, that a slighty dovish FOMC developed a bullish day on thursday and a simple Dragui's speech has...
uh Regarding expectations:That is really thin ice.When Gold was at 2000 the expectations were kind of 5000, 10000, to the moonWhen Oil was around 200 the expectations were kind of 300, 400, to the moonWhere are we now?When the FED stopped the monthly printing, and the economy suffefed quickly, people were quick to expect more printing. You can see the reflectionof this in the ever rising prices in the stock markets. But wait - the SPX has not moved much north since last year.Although people expected more printing, the EURUSD kept on falling. How could that happen when it was clear what the expectation were?So the question stays: how do you measure expectations? Whom would you ask for expectations?Yesterday, Zerohedge showed an article about the expectations for Gold from various big players. The range was, when remembering correctly, 800 to 1400 roughly.When expectations are clear and tradeable, how can even the most informed big players in such a wide range, from down to up?
  • #20,109
  • Nov 21, 2015 3:20am Nov 21, 2015 3:20am
And keep in mind:

Nearly everytime the FED only follow the rates the market has already established.
Not vice versa.
Prechter did great work here before

Here are the data from the FRED
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=15Zk
  • #20,110
  • Nov 21, 2015 3:39am Nov 21, 2015 3:39am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Lavanda,No, the % of USDCHF bulls is OK. I clarified this with the source of my information. In the past I thought the value was the bulls generally in CHF, but I was told now that the currencies are always the values for the USD pairs.I cleared that last week especially for USDCHFAnd the data makes sense. We have seen this bearishness in USDCHF now for weeks, but the price keeps on climbing.The crowd is wrong most of the time. They will keep and build their short positions until price drops. Then they are deep underwater and suffer pain....
It's stupid to be bull in EU and in USDCHF at the same time. Both bias are not in sync like before, but they are still highly correlated. It's easy looking at the charts.
  • #20,111
  • Nov 21, 2015 4:26am Nov 21, 2015 4:26am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} It's stupid to be bull in EU and in USDCHF at the same time. Both bias are not in sync like before, but they are still highly correlated. It's easy looking at the charts.
The daily sentiment index for Eurusd is also bearishYou have to differentiate between the sentiment index and the retail trader positioning. It is not necessarily the same.Most of the retail trader have been bullish the eu for months as can be seen especially with the data from Oanda and Fxcm.Only lately they are flip-flopping. They will switch to full bearish at the very bottom, or when price has already run up a bit TV
  • #20,112
  • Nov 21, 2015 5:27am Nov 21, 2015 5:27am
Have to agree with Lavanda on most things said. But Infinitus did raise important question: whos expectations? For me personally i make my own analysis either from PA, info gathered, or knowledge of macro-globalist stuff, not listening directly to crowd or only certain persons opinion. Its my money in line and trade that comes from it. With that said expectations on currently in air macro things for December is quite a crowd view in regards to hike. But just saying, for me crowd means nothing, in 2014 everyone was laughing at me suggesting that ECB will do QE, i didnt care for crowd view. In the end you pull the trigger (if you do trade fundies or have basis for it on techs) and those expectations really dont matter at the end, only your view(or on them if you do it that way) does.


Quote
And keep in mind:

Nearly everytime the FED only follow the rates the market has already established.
Not vice versa.
Prechter did great work here before

As for that, thats certainly up to the point. Its not just FED though, better example would be ECB in my view. When they did QE, most of the market has already pre-positioned (no matter how much crowd thing it would have not happened), and when they announced it was just tiny fart compared to before long term action.
That said FED hike would aswell not have massive EU impact, but where i still look for very large impact is on EMs. But then again, EMs did have significant pre-positioning for hike aswell already for whole year. In case of hike ill be ready to buy USD against EMs easy play, the only piratish scared moment on those positions could be if any of impacted EMs CBs comes out with unexpected hike to counter the FED. It could cause some loss /if slippage happens.
  • #20,113
  • Nov 21, 2015 7:48am Nov 21, 2015 7:48am
Magnificient. Must read.

Tangled Threads of US False Narratives
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/11/1...se-narratives/

Best
D.P.

P.S. I have been saying the USA entrapped themselves into a cage.
Hunting High and Low
  • #20,114
  • Nov 21, 2015 11:47am Nov 21, 2015 11:47am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
Magnificient. Must read. Tangled Threads of US False Narratives https://consortiumnews.com/2015/11/1...se-narratives/ Best D.P. P.S. I have been saying the USA entrapped themselves into a cage.
Well presidental candidates would never ever touch into narative of CIA again probably. Kenedy did so and payed with his life by blocking CIAs actions in Cuba /along with reclaiming USD function to treasury. Lesson has been learned, even if you get good candidate, they can pretty easy dispatch that person. Shadow goverment in empires has and always be stronger than actual legal goverment, becouse of capital/loby and the facts that they do not have to obey the laws to remove obstracles. See the thing is that article is talking about "candidates". If you as candidate demand such things, first media would emidently discredit you as conspirancy maker, which means that by default you are declared lunatic by 50% of US residents, thus have no chance to win. And this isnt theoretical approach. --- Ron Paul will confirm that. He lost every single time big time, even though it was the most sane person ever to step on presidental election floor. So the only way one would have is to climb like Kenedy trough presidental elections ghostly and then strike when getting function, but once you strike as president you are dead. Then they replace you and change whatever you changed (the first day when next president gets function) ---Kenedy.
And now lets take utopian approach that there really does come good president, liberitarian by chance, stops war in Syria and demonization of Putin. What happens next is shadow goverment in USA organizes massive terrorist attack, lets say 9/11 x2, and first thing they do they blame it all on that president, for "allowing the terrorist to grow back", and crowd is emidently mobilized for war, so is the media. Just look the current pre-mobilization in EU. CIA keeps striking everywhere across the EU, and i can guarantee you that EU people will react the same US did. They will want war, the majority that is. Its just dead end, as long as empire stands. If you want to make change you need to actually reshape US into republic, thus removing all structures of empire institutions then there is a chance. And if you go trough history, never has any empire fail trough destruction of its empirical functions, it always happened either trough external war or economical emplosion that let it fade away.
  • #20,115
  • Nov 21, 2015 6:41pm Nov 21, 2015 6:41pm
We cant do much about system change, but at least we can grow horns. Wierd in-itt.
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  • #20,116
  • Edited 1:46pm Nov 22, 2015 1:02pm | Edited 1:46pm
Best guy that ever entered high level of economics. Said that before, should be repeated. Kinda funny that they let him teach on US colledges.

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I want this guy to be ilegaly shiped into my country to become finance minister. If that means taking down barbed wire fence so be it. For undestructable passport i know who to contact.
  • #20,117
  • Nov 22, 2015 5:17pm Nov 22, 2015 5:17pm
Quoting janpec1000
Best guy that ever entered high level of economics. Said that before, should be repeated. Kinda funny that they let him teach on US colledges. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8w0LOFw1-Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=md6_WfF9Ky0 I want this guy to be ilegaly shiped into my country to become finance minister. If that means taking down barbed wire fence so be it. For undestructable passport i know who to contact.



btw: I am in need of such a passport, too

My Girlfriend is after me after she noticed that my next trip is planned without her
  • #20,118
  • Nov 22, 2015 5:26pm Nov 22, 2015 5:26pm
you;re all jealous because we got him first? hahahahaha
  • #20,119
  • Nov 22, 2015 5:35pm Nov 22, 2015 5:35pm
Quoting KGP
you;re all jealous because we got him first? hahahahaha

no, not jealous but admiring


  • #20,120
  • Nov 22, 2015 5:58pm Nov 22, 2015 5:58pm
if i was you i would be careful what i would ask for...

been there done that...you see

or better...been there and still "feeling it" too lol
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