1 hour candle break out system - developing period

hello traders

i have a strategy .now this strategy in developing period.i need some traders who will help me to develop it and we will use it together.

i named this strategy is 1 hour candle breakout system.no indicator.totally fresh and naked chart. simple rules .

pair :: most major pair eur/usd ,gbp/usd ,usd/chf ,usd/cad, eur/jpy, gbp/jpy,chf/jpy.

trading time : London and new york (1st 4 hours ) every pairs we get 9 signal to trade.i use fxpro broker .


entry :: every candle breakout .if price break upwards we take buy entry+1 pips and downwards we take sell entry -1 pips
tp :: their is no tp in this system .we close trades when candle finish whatever.see this picture everything will be clear


sl: see this picture

avoid most high impact news like nfp, fomc and interest rate news . sl is must .it will save your hard income

I have extensively backtested something almost identical, over several years' price-data, on three different currency-pairs, some years ago.

The three small differences between what I backtested and what you've outlined above were:-


(i) I tested it during London RTH rather than during the first 4 hours of the London plus the first 4 hours of the New York sessions, but this is really very similar because the second half of London RTH coincides, more or less, with the first half of New York RTH;

(ii) Your buy/sell-stop entry-barrier is one pip above/below the previous hour's bar, and mine was one pip plus the spread above/below the previous hour's bar;

(iii) I was unable to take "news/fundamentals" into account in my backtesting - over the long-term, this should make no statistical outcome-difference because 50% of news-driven swings should be in your favour and 50% against you, anyway.


I don't believe (but can't prove it, of course) that these three slight differences can realistically make any significant difference to the long-term, collective outcomes, and certainly not enough to turn a losing method into a profitable one.

Unfortunately, though, you'd need them to do exactly that, for this to be viable, because it has no edge at all and makes steady losses.

I've also backtested similar variables for thirty-minute, two-hour and three-hour bars, each with various different stop-loss parameters, including both fixed and trailing stops. None was profitable.

Apologies for being the bearer of "bad news".

But I'm interested to know why you thought this method might have a net positive expectation?

Hey, You are using 2 pending orders or You sit and wait for breakout?

your system reminds me of this one http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=172963

pgpb

And I'm afraid Puppypippy was absolutely right about that one: even visual-only backtesting fairly quickly suggests that it has no edge, and backtesting proves it unarguably.

pending orders mostly.some time have to take market orders.

thanks for your comment in here bro.no need Apologies for that.its a good information you gave.i am in demo now and backtesting this system how its work.

Hi Xela !

You said your backtest showed steady losses.

If so , then have you happened to try to backtest the exact opposite ?

Just curious ...

Thanks a million.
Rdsl

No: steady losses because it's random, as Puppypippy explained in the other thread, and the dealing-costs therefore produce gradual losses as time passes and the number of trades builds up, not such big losses that its converse could profitably be traded, I'm afraid.

If you wish to trade this way, try checking out this thread, mainly the posts by Peter Crown on the first few pages. Might give you some ideas to develop further.

interesting thread,,
this is one I've been looking for, and I'll be the judge whether or not the strategy works or it doesn't

there are some variables that can be input here,
such as the time_exit and what yesterday candle pattern is, TP, SL, etc.

Idk if I'll post the result here later on, but I think not, if it works lol.

just ping me,
if it doesn't work, I'll reply and show you the back-test (i use EA to do most of my back-testing, efficient that way)
and if I don't reply and just liked your reply, it means.. it works.. with some sort of filters ofc

and if I don't do either of the both, that means I haven't done it yet.

Great! it means you develop EA.

I have a successful strategy I am trading manually in live account.

Similar to this threat but have some filters to avoid losses.

If interested email me.

[email protected]

If i may suggest something. Looking at the strategy the first thing that comes to mind is that youll have some trades where the risk reward will be very poor (since the trade closes at the next candle).
So in my mind something that might improve this strategy is figuring out the average candle size for the pair and make it a rule that you only put pending orders above/bellow candles that are half the size of the average candle, so that way your increasing the chances of have better risk reward.

Adding to that you can also have multi time frame EMAs to try and only trade in favour of the trend.

Just my 2 cents (hope it helps)

PS I've made a EA that follows a similar strategy and seems to be profitable from the year 2020 onwards
Pair GBP USD
Pending order above and below the H1 candle at the New York open (This is massively important, Change the time of day that you do this and it might not be profitable)
SL below / above candle (depending if your selling or buying)
TP 60 Pips
Pending order expires after 1 hour